Part Two: Mike's unacceptable plan for the starters

[Mike Sixel]

The title reflects my disappointment in options for 2019.....

 

Since I spend so much time offering opinions on other people’s moves, it only seems fair I give others the same chance at mine…..So far, I’ve done a piece on the offense / defense for the rest of this year. Here is what I’d do with the starting pitching this year (and some on next year).

 

First, wow, this is much harder in the long run, but pretty easy this year. You need five starting pitchers, it’s not like you need five third basemen….so the pieces are sort of fungible. That is, they are all playing the same position, you need 8 every year (at least), and you need a good balance of veterans and young players.

 

Second, I think mentorship is really important to young pitchers, so the team needs at least one veteran starting pitcher. Gibson might be that guy next year (and Santana and Odorizzi and he should be this year)….hard to say, but if he’s not, I’d be disappointed. He’s not a rookie…..

 

Third, I’d call up Kohl Stewart as a long RP, that will be covered in another post, this is the last appearance of his name in this post (I think, who knows). Or not. I just remembered about Pineda, they might want him in this role.  

But I think there is room for both in September. Ya, I’d have Stewart and Pineda finish other people’s starts for sure. Maybe even do 3 innings for the normal player, and three for one of these guys some days.

 

 

Easy choices for this year:
Berrios and Mejia pitch as many games as they can the rest of the year. Both are still learning at this level, and the Twins need continued data on Mejia.

 

Gibson, Odorizzi, Santana pitch normal routines through the end of the month.

 

Injury replacements (if there is an injury, this is the order I’d call them up):
Romero and Littell….primarily to protect the options on the other options. I guess Enns is also an option here…..though not my preference.

 

 

September moves:
Call up Gonsalves and Stewart (oops), and Romero and Littell.

Replace Odorizzi or Santana with Gonsalves.
Skip a start or two for the other, and give to Romero or Littell.

 

I’m not an expert on when players need to move up, or be free agents….but I’m sticking with these names for this year, unless someone tells me someone else needs a look.

 

In the minors, I promote Thorpe and De Jong to Rochester. Do whatever you want with Baxendale or some other starter that isn’t likely part of the future.

 

Now for the hard part, 2019 plans…….

 

My beliefs/assumptions:

• The Twins are very deep in good SP or good SP prospects for 2019.
• They have plenty of money to add 1-3 expensive deals.
• They have the farm system depth to make a trade or two for a great player.
• I value options, so I don’t want 5 veterans they can’t send down.

Locks (without trades, which I will touch on):
Berrios
Gibson
Mejia (legit number 4, imo, real value there)
Pineada (dang, wrote up this whole thing having forgotten him….I have no idea what to do with this player right now, since we don’t know health. But if he’s healthy, he’s got a realistic shot to be the third best pitcher on this roster next year, unless someone from AA/AAA really surprises).

 

Near lock:
Odorizzi. I understand why some want to move on from him, but there is real management value in certainty. He’ll give them around 30 starts, around league average or so results. If not, he’s only under control for a couple months (from when we “know” he’s bad) and can be DFA or whatever at that point. Plus, someone will get hurt between now and April. However, if I can swing a legit trade/FA signing, he’s at real risk of staying on the roster. I might trade him in August, if they think Pineda is going to be a starter next year, or in the off season.

 

Not sure what I'm doing yet:
Santana.
He’s old, was hurt most of the year, and he’s old (ya, so am I)......I really need to see his health for the rest of the year, but for me, he’s the most replaceable starter. I also don’t know his influence on the younger players, so I’m going to leave that out of the discussion. But either Gibson is doing that next year, or someone else has to…..because I value options, and the ability to move players around, I probably do NOT bring him back. I’m guessing he’s around a 1 WAR pitcher next year, and I’d rather have room for one young guy, or a FA, or a trade. Given I just remembered about Pineda, I try to trade ESan in August.

 

Trade/Free agent thoughts:
This team has the money and farm system to add an elite pitcher. I’m ONLY signing or trading for a pitcher that the team feels is a legit very good player, like 2.5 - 3 WAR or more. Gibson or better.  Also, has to be under 32, because this team isn’t a one year deal away from being great, give me a controllable FA, or no FA.

 

Here are the free agents I like…..that will not have their option picked up:
Patrick Corbin (29)
Nathan Eovaldi (29)  (unsure he’s the one I want, really)
Jeremy Hellickson (32) (probably not good enough)
Clayton Kershaw (31) (depends on health, but i doubt the Twins sign him, so not really an option)
Dallas Keuchel (31) (probably the top realistic target, though he’s trending the wrong way)

 

That’s a sad list, imo…...Corbin, Keuchel, Eovaldi...that’s about it for realistic FAs that are likely to be better than other options.

 

 

For fun, let’s look at the top 50 or so starting pitchers on the FG leaderboard, and see who might be available….

 

Giggles …. As in, outrageously expensive in terms of prospects, and might be a year early for this type move:

 

When you look at the SP leaderboard, you almost exclusively see pitchers pitching for playoff teams, or the occasional young player on bad team. There just aren’t many available that are on the leaderboard. And I’m dealing for a number 4 type….

• Scherzer, if the Nats rebuild. Would cost a lot…..but might be worth it.
• DeGrom----this is slightly more realistic, but I don’t think they are starting over
• Wheeler---no way they deal him, imo.
• Snell----well, the Rays do make interesting choices, but I doubt it

That’s about it for trade candidates better than Odorizzi…...yikes!

 

So, it’s hard to see a trade that makes sense for 2019 unless the Mets are sellers, or they pony up ridiculous prices (or both). If you look at the “for sure” bad teams next year, they don’t have much pitching to trade…..

 

The other option is to deal for a minor league player, but I don’t have the strength to do that analysis right now.

 

So, what does 2019 look like:

• Berrios
• Gibson
• Tiny chance of a FA, but if so, I think Mejia should be in the deal, as I believe he’s out of options.
• Mejia
• Pineda or  Odorizzi or Santana

Only Berrios has options in that group. If Pineda is healthy and starting I do NOT keep Odorizzi or Santana around. If he’s not healthy, or not starting, I keep one of those two around, probably Odorizzi, but that’s up to the FO and others to know the clubhouse…..

 

Fifth starter is likely Romero, with the following depth:

• Stewart (nope, he’s traded or something)
• De Jong
• Gonsalves
• Littell
• Enns (probably left unprotected)
• Thorpe
• Someone I am forgetting.

I just don’t think there is a player worth trading for, that will be realistically available.

 

Frankly, I’m disappointed I can’t find a FA or trade partner, so if you have other ideas, post ‘em!

 

edit to add:

I really want them to piggy back with Stewart and Romero following someone (not each other) so they pitch every week in September. IMO, they need the data.

 

final add:

If they want to move Romero to the bullpen, to open up space for a RP or Pineda, I'm cool with that, I think, but am not sure yet. Thought experiment.....

 

oops, one more edit:

Trevor May is traded or a RP for me.

[Thrylos]

If the Twins want to compete in the post season in 2019 they will need their rotation to look something like:

 

Starter 1, Starter 2, Berrios, Romero, Pineda.  Where starters 1 and 2 are better than Berrios.

They got Gibson, Odorizzi, May and a whole lot of prospects (including any pitcher not named Graterol and whole bunch of LHH OFs).  They should be able to trade for them if cannot find them as free agents.

 

Half assing it again, won't cut it.

[jkcarew]

Not as high on Mejia as you, but agree Twins should give him a long look in Aug/Sept. Really hope Twins give Stewart a chance as a RP before they trade or leave him unprotected. Agree with being responsible regarding minor league options with the top guys. And, yes...I probably like our guys better than (most) the FA options.

[Mike Sixel]

If the Twins want to compete in the post season in 2019 they will need their rotation to look something like:

 

Starter 1, Starter 2, Berrios, Romero, Pineda. Where starters 1 and 2 are better than Berrios.

They got Gibson, Odorizzi, May and a whole lot of prospects (including any pitcher not named Graterol and whole bunch of LHH OFs). They should be able to trade for them if cannot find them as free agents.

 

Half assing it again, won't cut it.

Go look at the names not on contenders.... And tell me who they can get. I tried.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Agreed Mike on just about all of it. Depending on how May does in relief, he might be a non tender candidate. He’ll be cheap in his last year of Arbitration but with no options and no real track record how can you tie up the roster spot unless he’s dominant in relief

[Mike Sixel]

Agreed Mike on just about all of it. Depending on how May does in relief, he might be a non tender candidate. He’ll be cheap in his last year of Arbitration but with no options and no real track record how can you tie up the roster spot unless he’s dominant in relief

Yup. Too bad, he has real talent

[Thrylos]

 

Go look at the names not on contenders.... And tell me who they can get. I tried.

 

Are the Mets a contender?  DeGrom or Syndergaard

And

Blake Snell or even Danny Duffy from the left side.

 

But you got to give up prospects and/or major leaguers and maybe pick up a bad contract to get them.  And the Twins need to start doing that.  For example, I'd include Kepler in a package that would return Cespedes in a heartbeat.

[Mike Sixel]

Great. I mentioned those guys, but I think they think they are contenders. What would you give up? I'm trying to be detailed here....

[Thrylos]

 

Great. I mentioned those guys, but I think they think they are contenders. What would you give up? I'm trying to be detailed here....

 

 

I'd have to think about it.  For the Mets, I'd go after deGrom (who has only 1 year of team control) and offer Gibson and Gordon.  Then, I'd look to see if I can take some $ off their hands by buying low on Bruce or Cespedes for someone like Kepler.   And I'd add Gonsalves to sweeten the deal

 

So we got:  deGrom and Cespedes for Gibson, Gordon, Kepler and Gonsalves.  I think that it is fair.

 

Tampa:

 

Blake Snell for Kirilloff, Thorpe, and Alcala.  Add Wade if you have to. But you won't

 

Done.

 

[gman]

Starters:  Gibson, Berrios, Mejia, Romero, Odorizzi, Pineda, Gonsalvez, Little, Stewart, May, Thorpe(late in the season).  Thats eleven. Should wind up with strong rotations in Rochester and Chattanooga as well becuase not all will start with the Twins. To me the 2019 goal should be to continue to work these guys into the rotation. A couple (Odorizzi and Pineda) probably won't be in the rotation past next years trade deadline. If Santana makes a good recovery by the end of August he could be included.

 

With this group they have experience, youth and some youngish veterans in the mix. I don't think the Twins should sign any free agent starters. 2019 won't be the year that they are nearing the top of the hill. Hopefully they will start to serve notice to the top teams in the league. Free agent starters contracts are iffy at best because the pitchers usually have a lot of wear on them.

 

Possibly, potentially, maybe, they might have 1 or 2 (good to elite) starters in their system rise to the top of the minors each year for the 4-5 years.

[Rosterman]

At the rate the Twins are going, they might FIRMLY be a second place club in the Central Division. Unless they truly want to tank because of a higher draft pick, they need to look at bodies for the future and evaluate who they have.

 

By Labor Day the Twins should've made a decision on Ervin Santana. Is he someone you want to try and keep for 2019? If not, see if someone wants his salary before September 1.

 

Kohl Stewart will be added to the 40-man. Is there any reason to not add him early (no). He will either be brilliant in the next season or fodder for the waiver wire.

 

No Twins pitcher will be searching for a strikeout or ERA or a wins title. You can go with a six-man rotation. You can limit your guys to five innings. You can have the 15 or so guys you have on the roster ALL up and pitching (maybe not Thorpe).

 

You have to make decisions on Slevers. You have to decide of Rogers and Duffey are keepers. You need to decide of Magill is the real thing Pitchers like Drake and Belisle need to be replkaced by people like Bard or Baxendale for a looksee. You ahd these guys in your organization for awhile. Do you want them anymore? September is decision month.

 

You also think about Addison Reed before September 1. Would you rather respend his $8 million from next year or keep Reed. Decide in August!

 

I like the Twins starters for 2019. Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda, Mejia with Romero, Goncalves, :Littell, Stewart, De Jong in the wings, maybe Slegers still, and Thorpe prepping for the 2020 season. 

 

Considering that right now Gibson, Odorizzi and Pienda would be free agents come 2020, you need arms getting experience. So the "Mejia" spot would be a swing spot, depending on Pineda.

 

Signing a free agent will only complicate things. Having Santana s the grizzled vet would complicate things. You rebuild and hope the yougsters surprise, or you don't. And remember, all these youngsters that were supposed to produce this year will be given another chance next season (Sano, Buxton, Garver, Polanco, Kepler, Rosario, who ever is on second - Gordon - and Mauer, with possibly Austin - or Grossman again - as DH).

[yarnivek1972]

Not seeing how trading May for a reliever makes sense. Why would someone trade a better reliever for him?

 

Maybe packaged with someone else I suppose.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't think FA is the right answer for a starting pitcher. Not many names I like, and the ones I do won't be coming here. 

 

Honestly, I don't think they need much help in the rotation. That said, I think they need to package one or two of the AAA guys for some help on the major league team. They should be able to get some help on the offense with pitching that's sitting in AAA. 

[beckmt]

Santana will not have his option picked up, so he will not be in the mix next year.  Berrios, Romero, Oderizzi, Pineda, Gibson are your probable starters next year.  Possibly Thorpe, Littell, Gonsalves or some others can force their way through.  Slegers will be released or leave at the end of the year.  Enns will not be protected.  do not think that next year is such a sure thing that I should risk trading some of the farm for a front line starter.

May, A. Reed, Rodney, Rogers, Hildenburger are the base of the pen next year.  Jake Reed, Curtiss, Bard, Jay and several others plus some FA additions will be the rest of the pen and depth in the minors with most at Rochester..  May need to sign one dominant reliever(almost a must is we are to contend) and a few more lottery tickets for depth.

 

Most of the Twins better farm system pitchers are in Ft. Myers now, so some of them will be in Chattanooga next year.  That is not that far away if they do well.  I do not tie up long term money except for Berrios and an ace(if I can get my hands on one).  I like most do not like the options in the FA market except for the few front end pitchers.   

[diehardtwinsfan]

May and Mejia are out of options. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Romero starts in AAA.

[Major League Ready]

 

I'd have to think about it.  For the Mets, I'd go after deGrom (who has only 1 year of team control) and offer Gibson and Gordon.  Then, I'd look to see if I can take some $ off their hands by buying low on Bruce or Cespedes for someone like Kepler.   And I'd add Gonsalves to sweeten the deal

 

So we got:  deGrom and Cespedes for Gibson, Gordon, Kepler and Gonsalves.  I think that it is fair.

 

Tampa:

 

Blake Snell for Kirilloff, Thorpe, and Alcala.  Add Wade if you have to. But you won't

 

Done.

 

BB Ref says DeGrom has 2 years of control. Regardless, this team has many things to figure out before it makes "all-in" moves.

[Major League Ready]

 

I don't think FA is the right answer for a starting pitcher. Not many names I like, and the ones I do won't be coming here. 

 

Honestly, I don't think they need much help in the rotation. That said, I think they need to package one or two of the AAA guys for some help on the major league team. They should be able to get some help on the offense with pitching that's sitting in AAA. 

 

Could not agree more. We finally have a chance to construct a very good rotation that can be kept in place for several years. We need a middle infielder and 1B. Catcher is TBD. Right now Garver is certainly  trending in the right direction. BP needs a lot of help. 

 

For me, Lewis and Kirilloff are basically untouchable unless the return is a great player with 4+years of control. Use the money come off the books in FA and trade prospects where we have considerable depth.

[adorduan]

 

Could not agree more. We finally have a chance to construct a very good rotation that can be kept in place for several years. We need a middle infielder and 1B. Catcher is TBD. Right now Garver is certainly  trending in the right direction. BP needs a lot of help. 

 

For me, Lewis and Kirilloff are basically untouchable unless the return is a great player with 4+years of control. Use the money come off the books in FA and trade prospects where we have considerable depth.

teams don't trade great players with 4+ years of control for prospects.  Why would they do that?

[olivia11]

I don't think the Twins need to trade for a top-end starting pitcher. SPs under 30 with multiple years of control are arguably (maybe with catchers) the most valuable asset in baseball right now. This means the Twins would almost definitely have to pay. Giving up a prospect like Kirilloff - who tracks to be a plus middle-of-the-order bat - and high-ceiling pitchers like Thorpe and Alcala just makes no sense to me. Especially when the Twins have several options who can put together an about league average season. 

 

PLUS, Twins starting pitchers have been above average in the AL this season. And that's including the 5th starter spot (the one originally occupied by Phil Hughes) which, last I saw, has an ERA above 6. This 5th spot, to me, is the only one that really needs to be upgraded for 2019 and I think it immediately will be by slotting in Romero.

 

AND, the Twins actually already have top-end pitching. José Berríos has been a top 20 pitcher in all of baseball this season, firmly establishing him already - at 24 years old - as a #1 or #2 starter.  He's 17th in all of baseball for WAR (with 3.0) and I think we'd all agree he's trending up. Also, Kyle Gibson is tied for 17th with Berríos and 3.0 WAR. It's also worth remembering the top-of-the-rotation potential we all saw in Fernando Romero's first 5 starts. 

 

If I'm running the Twins, I'd take my chances with this rotation: Berríos, Gibson, Pineda, Romero, Odorrizi/Mejía. 

 

Early-2019 depth: Gonsalves, Littell, potentially Mejía. Potentially May, Slegers, Stewart. 

 

Mid to late 2019 depth: add in Thorpe & Alcala.

 

That rotation - plus these depth options - should be solidly above average. It also has a lot of high-end potential. I think the only pitchers on that list who aren't expected to be trending upward in 2019 are Odorrizi (maybe Selgers & Mejía).

 

Am I the only one who feels really good about the Twins rotation moving forward? It's really amazing to see the progress from just 2 seasons ago when players like Tim Melville and Nik Turley made starts.

 

 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

teams don't trade great players with 4+ years of control for prospects.  Why would they do that

 

That was the point. Perhaps an inarticulate way of making it but we need to solidify several aspects of this team before we go trading for 2 year assets. Remember when several posters insisted we needed to trade for LuCroy, Tulowitzki, and Sonny Gray because we were in a window of contention?