8.5 back

[ThejacKmp]

 

This is the best and only argument for not selling.  Until the last paragraph.  I would hope the Twins have at least one player (or at least think they do) that would require a sell based on the last paragraph.

 

Personally, I like next-to-nothing better than nothing for the expiring contracts, as nothing about this team justifies passing on anything, IMO. 

 

I like this argument too and I don't see anyone being blocked. Gordon and Wade can wait until September call-ups. Gonsalves too. Romero is being blocked by Slegers, which I don't expect to last. I also think that trading away Lynn for very little creates the possibility that injuries put you in a bad spot.

 

Escobar and maybe one of the relievers are the only guys you can realistically expect to get something for. Escobar creates a hole and I want to resign him. Pen guys are blocking someone. DFAing Belisle and trading Rodney to the Red Sox would neatly take care of that blockage. And maybe one of those arms can be like Hildy from last year.

[ThejacKmp]

 

The return won't be more than lottery tickets, but why at least take that chance? They honestly have nothing to lose by moving off guys on short term deals.

 

Is there really any point in continuing to feed ABs to Morrison or even Grossman? Buxton will be back up at some point and while I'm not a huge believer in Cave, he could certainly slide into the DH spot at that time. I'd take a bag of balls for Lynn and let Gonsalves, Romero, Mejia, and Slegers work through the rotation. 

 

They do have things to lose.

 

If you were the Royals or Orioles facing a long rebuild, yeah, sell everything. Worked too well for the Astros not to do it. If you were a team like the Nats that are hoping to contend soon and have significant assets, yeah, you gotta thing about selling. Worked too well for the Yankees not to at least think about it. But the Twins are neither. They don’t have amazing assets (Escobar is about it and who knows what he’s worth in a market glutted with middle infielders) and they aren’t looking to bottom out.

 

The thing you stand to lose giving up on a season is the chance to put young players through a pennant race and demonstrate that the FO believes in the guys. The Twins have a non-negligible chance (by virtue of ten games against Cleveland they control their own destiny) and they have guys who could benefit from meaningful or near-meaningful August/September baseball. Again, if the expected return was more than minor league lottery ticket, I’d be more inclined. But I think you lose more by giving up that chance and that experience. Not to mention that making a run perhaps makes it easier to resign a guy like Escobar or attract next year’s Lance Lynn. Guys want to go to contenders so even getting back in and coming up just short looks better than finishing 15 games out.

 

As for Morrison, there is a good reason to feed him at-bats. The Twins have Mauer and Sano at 1B and they both have potential issues (concussions/age and sliders/attitude). Is it crazy to think that Morrison hitting down the stretch might make the Twins want to pick up his cheap 1 year $8 million option? He’s been okay defensively and is a left-handed power bat for a team with nobody inked in at DH or 1B. He’s also well-liked in the clubhouse and has underlying numbers that show he may just be unlucky.

 

Grossman is harder to defend. He’s going to get more expensive next year and Cave/Wade/Rooker seem likely to be in the picture next year. I think he serves a purpose now (RH OF/DHbats are hard to find in the Twins AAA/MLB) and wouldn’t be as easy to replace as you’d think. But if someone wanted Vargas an dumped Grossman, I’d get it.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If the Twins sell at the deadline, answer this question:

 

Exactly what do you expect they can get for any player who can't/won't be returning for 2019?

 

(the correct answer is "almost nothing")

 

So do you give up and get a pathetic return on expiring contracts or just play out the season and see what happens?

 

I'd rather see them ride it out considering what the return would be either way.

 

The one caveat being that an expiring contract is blocking a player you want to see in MLB through August and September.

 

I'd rather get mediocre returns, and see the young pitchers up here. It's also about their opportunity. What do the Twins get, next year, out of watching Lynn pitch this year? Nothing. Which you sort of addressed....so, every pitcher not named Berrios or Slegers, on the current roster, is available (maybe not Gibson, maybe Gibson). Including all the RPs.

 

That leaves Esco and Dozier as the only two not currently blocking someone (maybe Grossman or Morrison, if you want Wade up). Gordon isn't ready.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I like this argument too and I don't see anyone being blocked. Gordon and Wade can wait until September call-ups. Gonsalves too. Romero is being blocked by Slegers, which I don't expect to last. I also think that trading away Lynn for very little creates the possibility that injuries put you in a bad spot.

 

Escobar and maybe one of the relievers are the only guys you can realistically expect to get something for. Escobar creates a hole and I want to resign him. Pen guys are blocking someone. DFAing Belisle and trading Rodney to the Red Sox would neatly take care of that blockage. And maybe one of those arms can be like Hildy from last year.

 

Bad spot for what? They have Romero, Gonsalves, and whatever AAA pitcher you want available to replace current players.

 

Waiting for September means you see, what, 2 starts? Unless you bench some veterans. 

[Mike Sixel]

I hope the FO isn't looking at these two series as anything other than win padding....these two teams have a chance to lose 120 games this year.......They aren't good.

[KirbyDome89]

 

They do have things to lose.

 

If you were the Royals or Orioles facing a long rebuild, yeah, sell everything. Worked too well for the Astros not to do it. If you were a team like the Nats that are hoping to contend soon and have significant assets, yeah, you gotta thing about selling. Worked too well for the Yankees not to at least think about it. But the Twins are neither. They don’t have amazing assets (Escobar is about it and who knows what he’s worth in a market glutted with middle infielders) and they aren’t looking to bottom out.

 

The thing you stand to lose giving up on a season is the chance to put young players through a pennant race and demonstrate that the FO believes in the guys. The Twins have a non-negligible chance (by virtue of ten games against Cleveland they control their own destiny) and they have guys who could benefit from meaningful or near-meaningful August/September baseball. Again, if the expected return was more than minor league lottery ticket, I’d be more inclined. But I think you lose more by giving up that chance and that experience. Not to mention that making a run perhaps makes it easier to resign a guy like Escobar or attract next year’s Lance Lynn. Guys want to go to contenders so even getting back in and coming up just short looks better than finishing 15 games out.

 

As for Morrison, there is a good reason to feed him at-bats. The Twins have Mauer and Sano at 1B and they both have potential issues (concussions/age and sliders/attitude). Is it crazy to think that Morrison hitting down the stretch might make the Twins want to pick up his cheap 1 year $8 million option? He’s been okay defensively and is a left-handed power bat for a team with nobody inked in at DH or 1B. He’s also well-liked in the clubhouse and has underlying numbers that show he may just be unlucky.

 

Grossman is harder to defend. He’s going to get more expensive next year and Cave/Wade/Rooker seem likely to be in the picture next year. I think he serves a purpose now (RH OF/DHbats are hard to find in the Twins AAA/MLB) and wouldn’t be as easy to replace as you’d think. But if someone wanted Vargas an dumped Grossman, I’d get it.

Pennant race? The Twins won't get to play the O's and Royals the rest of the season. The 06' comparisons have been beaten to death but it was over a month ago that matching the pace necessary to make the postseason was nearing 06' territory. Rightfully, most were skeptical. That was with 3/4 of the season left to play. We're at the halfway point now and since then the Twins have only damaged what little chance they had. They play 162 games; the fact that their chance of reaching the postseason is > 0% isn't particularly meaningful. They don't control their own destiny either. Sure, they have a handful of games remaining against Cleveland, but they also need the Indians to collapse, as much as they need to maintain a torrid win pace. If you want to hold out hope that they'll make a historical second half run, then more power to you, but for all realistic purposes this team isn't contending. 

 

I don't want next year's Lance Lynn. I have 0 interest in a pitcher with iffy peripherals, coming off a serious injury. There's a reason MN signed him for 1 year, and no other teams expressed real interest, and Lynn has shown us exactly what that reason was. I'd bet that money ultimately decides where Escobar ends up, not a few more meaningless second half Ws. 

 

Yes, it'd be borderline negligent for the Twins to pick up Morrison's option. He's been flat out awful apart from a few decent weeks in May. You don't slash .192/.289/.357 because you're "unlucky." The team won't have to look far to find an improvement over that. Grossman just doesn't serve a purpose on this team anymore. He only tenable attribute, getting on base, is no longer a strength. You're right, they have a handful of guys who should be replacing him. 

[snap4birds]

 

 

Thanks for the correction. I dated myself again. I also admit that I too easily flip flop from "fire 'em all" to "go for it". All a fan can to is observe and react and, to me, sweeping Baltimore is no small feat as someone who used to go to Memorial Stadium and watch the Killebrew/Oliva Twins lose to the Orioles. I have always said that the Twins are basically in the same boat as the great majority of teams. So still rooting for them to go after every game and stay competitive is not really flip flopping.

So, first you say that you flip-flop, then you say you're not really flip-flopping?  Isn't that a flip-flop  ?

 

I think that's how my posts usually go.  First I state a position, then I look at the other side of the same argument and contradict myself.  That's why I usually don't post them    

[Monkeypaws]

 

Now if we can do something about C and DH were in business.

 

C - play Garver. He isn't a black hole of offense, and not a disaster on defense either.

 

DH - Vargas has been heating up in Rochester. Bring him back. 

[jkcarew]

 

I hope the FO isn't looking at these two series as anything other than win padding....these two teams have a chance to lose 120 games this year.......They aren't good.

Exactly.  BTW...Cleveland's record in their last three series against Chicago, Detroit, and KC?  9-0.

Twins record in last 3 series against those opponents?  3-6 (a 2nd series against Chicago within that time-frame would make it 5-8).  Hopefully, the Twins can go 14-0 in our 10 remaining games against Cleveland.  It's worth a try, right?

[Mr. Brooks]

Lottery tickets sometimes hit. There is no shame in amassing as many tickets as you can.

Eduardo Escobar was once a lottery ticket that we got for trading Liriano as a rental.

What if they'd just said then, ah Liriano won't get you much, maybe some future utility C prospect, might as well not bother trading him?

[Platoon]

One could just as well take a flyer on Vargas, as the apparent flyer we took on Morrison. While Vargas may not be better, it's truly hard to be worse. And yes, move some dead end contracts for something. And give the experience to some potential controllable players. Something for nothing is better than nothing for nothing.

[curt1965]

I am one of the biggest fans you will ever find. Been following them since I was 5 and I'm 52 now. Used to follow the prospects and milb via the Star Tribune, Baseball Digest, Sporting News, Baseball America and a short lived fan rag in the late 80's whose name I can't recall any longer. I LIVE ME SOME TWINS BASEBALL!

But even I, ever a contender for most optimistic fan, will admit to you that without a small miracle, the Twins are done from a contention standpoint for this season.

Just being a realist.

But whether you are rooting for, or against, Molitor, there is so much to watch for the second half! When will Buxton and Sano turn the corner and build for 2019, or still help this year? The Eddie & Eddie show is awesome. Berrios is awesome. Romero has flashed awesome and will be back! Slegers, solid and with enough ability to find a role, and the even more talented Gonsalves and Mejia are going to get auditions. Maybe I'm full of it because he's probably only going to end up being a nice 4th OF complimentary piece, but I'm loving watching some of the stuff Captain Caveman is doing.

What's really important, at this point, is how this team develops and comes together the second half. Sometimes, in the world of sports, finishing as a strong #2 can be very important.

The real joy of watching games now, is that if they lose, blow a big lead, whatever,is that I can sleep much easier when this happens, since my belief is that these games add experience for when a real pennant race happens! Agree 100% Doc!

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Bullpen is too bad to make any serious run. That being said, if they get within 5 i will become quite optimistic we can come back.

[Nine of twelve]

 

You think we have a better chance of winning a 5 game series against a superior team rather than winning a single game against a superior team?

We would be in the ALDS, whereas being in the wild card game is at best a 50% chance of being in the ALDS.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'd rather get mediocre returns, and see the young pitchers up here. It's also about their opportunity. What do the Twins get, next year, out of watching Lynn pitch this year? Nothing. Which you sort of addressed....so, every pitcher not named Berrios or Slegers, on the current roster, is available (maybe not Gibson, maybe Gibson). Including all the RPs.

 

That leaves Esco and Dozier as the only two not currently blocking someone (maybe Grossman or Morrison, if you want Wade up). Gordon isn't ready.

I don't move Odorizzi. I don't move Gibson. Both have been decent enough (or in Gibson's case, legitimately good) to keep for next year.

 

I think Lynn probably falls under the last paragraph of my post (meaning he's blocking someone you want to see in August and September).

 

I don't think anyone in the bullpen is good enough to bring back anything worth thinking about. Sure, you field offers, but if the return is pointless, just keep Duke/Rodney.

[Loosey]

One move I would make, is Santana.  If he can be back up in a week he should be able to make 2 starts before the deadline.  If he looks good I'd move him, even if it is at the waiver deadline in August.  It isn't like he has been a cog in the rotation this year and isn't a future piece.  

 

You won't get much but they can essentially get something for a player they haven't used all year.  But he is a veteran that is relatively steady when healthy.  Another team chasing a the playoffs could give up a mid-level prospect and in return get Santana to be a good #4/#5 starter down the stretch.  Basically, it would be a something for nothing type of trade and isn't hurting the team.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Pennant race? The Twins won't get to play the O's and Royals the rest of the season. The 06' comparisons have been beaten to death but it was over a month ago that matching the pace necessary to make the postseason was nearing 06' territory. Rightfully, most were skeptical. That was with 3/4 of the season left to play. We're at the halfway point now and since then the Twins have only damaged what little chance they had. They play 162 games; the fact that their chance of reaching the postseason is > 0% isn't particularly meaningful. They don't control their own destiny either. Sure, they have a handful of games remaining against Cleveland, but they also need the Indians to collapse, as much as they need to maintain a torrid win pace. If you want to hold out hope that they'll make a historical second half run, then more power to you, but for all realistic purposes this team isn't contending. 

 

I don't want next year's Lance Lynn. I have 0 interest in a pitcher with iffy peripherals, coming off a serious injury. There's a reason MN signed him for 1 year, and no other teams expressed real interest, and Lynn has shown us exactly what that reason was. I'd bet that money ultimately decides where Escobar ends up, not a few more meaningless second half Ws. 

 

Yes, it'd be borderline negligent for the Twins to pick up Morrison's option. He's been flat out awful apart from a few decent weeks in May. You don't slash .192/.289/.357 because you're "unlucky." The team won't have to look far to find an improvement over that. Grossman just doesn't serve a purpose on this team anymore. He only tenable attribute, getting on base, is no longer a strength. You're right, they have a handful of guys who should be replacing him. 

 

1.) Incorrect. The Twins control their own destiny. If they win out, they will win the division (and like the #1 seed. And be the loose basis for a major Hollywood motion picture). You can argue that in baseball controlling your own destiny is meaningless because of the number of games but they absolutely control their own destiny. I'd also argue that they control their own destiny in a real sense of the word because if they win every game against Cleveland, they should be in good shape. Did you watch that Cleveland pen last night? That’s not a team pulling away.

2.) Logan Morrison’s BABIP is 54 points lower than his career average. His K rate is lower than last year, he’s hitting LD at the same rate, his Ground Out/Air Out is more skewed towards Air Outs than ever before, and his walk rate is the same as his career average. He’s popping up in the IF more than he did in the past but other than that, it’s hard to see any real differences in his peripherals. I think you can very concretely say that bad luck has played a key role in his struggles. He’s popped the ball up a bit more but his BABIP being down 35% is likely a bigger causative effect. Those numbers should even out. He’s not 2017 Logan Morrison but he’s not this guy either.

 

[KirbyDome89]

 

1.) Incorrect. The Twins control their own destiny. If they win out, they will win the division (and like the #1 seed. And be the loose basis for a major Hollywood motion picture). You can argue that in baseball controlling your own destiny is meaningless because of the number of games but they absolutely control their own destiny. I'd also argue that they control their own destiny in a real sense of the word because if they win every game against Cleveland, they should be in good shape. Did you watch that Cleveland pen last night? That’s not a team pulling away.

2.) Logan Morrison’s BABIP is 54 points lower than his career average. His K rate is lower than last year, he’s hitting LD at the same rate, his Ground Out/Air Out is more skewed towards Air Outs than ever before, and his walk rate is the same as his career average. He’s popping up in the IF more than he did in the past but other than that, it’s hard to see any real differences in his peripherals. I think you can very concretely say that bad luck has played a key role in his struggles. He’s popped the ball up a bit more but his BABIP being down 35% is likely a bigger causative effect. Those numbers should even out. He’s not 2017 Logan Morrison but he’s not this guy either.

I'd love the movie but I'm not remotely confident in it coming to fruition. Even if the Twins manage to win every remaining game against Cleveland, which is a monumental task in itself, they need the Indians to completely reverse the course they set during the first half of the season. That's far from controlling their season. The Twins didn't exactly look great last night either. Apart from a few Ws against a historically bad team last weekend they've ranged from terrible to not good over the last 2-3 weeks. That isn't a team that's going to "win out."

 

His K% is about the same as it was the last 2 years. It shouldn't be a surprise that he's making more outs in the air after shifting his focus to hitting more HRs. I'm not sure Morrison is a guy you want hitting GBs anyway. We're also ignoring the fact that he's about to turn 31. At some point those career numbers that are buoyed by his performance in his mid to late 20s becomes the peak and not the norm. "Bad luck," seems to be a placeholder until optimism can no longer be justified.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I'd love the movie but I'm not remotely confident in it coming to fruition. Even if the Twins manage to win every remaining game against Cleveland, which is a monumental task in itself, they need the Indians to completely reverse the course they set during the first half of the season. That's far from controlling their season. The Twins didn't exactly look great last night either. Apart from a few Ws against a historically bad team last weekend they've ranged from terrible to not good over the last 2-3 weeks. That isn't a team that's going to "win out."

 

See, weirdly, I’d be worried if they had been playing well. This team has more talent than it’s show so far which means they have the potential for another gear. Consider:

• Dozier goes nuclear like he does for two months sometimes. We’ve seen signs of this the past week.
• Mauer gets hot and is on base, taking professional at-bats
• Polanco isn’t even 2nd half Polanco, he just isn’t Adrianza
• Morrison and Kepler get a little better luck and start hitting some balls out (Morrison is getting hotter)
• They get an injection of talent from a revitalized Buxton or Sano (too much to ask for both but one seems okay)
• The starting pitching stays the same and they get a bit of an infusion from Romero/Gonsalves/Santana down the stretch

Does it seem crazy to think that they could go on a run? On paper they’re better than this and have been hurt by injuries/back luck. Cleveland is vulnerable with that pen, a top-heavy lineup, and the number of head-to-head games.

[ThejacKmp]

 

His K% is about the same as it was the last 2 years. It shouldn't be a surprise that he's making more outs in the air after shifting his focus to hitting more HRs. I'm not sure Morrison is a guy you want hitting GBs anyway. We're also ignoring the fact that he's about to turn 31. At some point those career numbers that are buoyed by his performance in his mid to late 20s becomes the peak and not the norm. "Bad luck," seems to be a placeholder until optimism can no longer be justified.

 

Splitting this in two.

 

I’m not sure your point – we’re both saying that his underlying numbers haven’t changed. What seems to have happened is he’s popping the ball up more than driving it to the OF and his BABIP is crazy low (54 points is a lot). The first part may be approach (but also may be a sample size thing or a pressing thing) but the second part is the definition of luck. He’s put about the same number of balls into play and suffered way worse than expected results.

 

I agree that his age is a potential concern but he’s only 30. Also, generally you see other numbers change when a guy starts to lose it. His LD rate drops, he strikes out more, he’s swinging at pitches out of the zone he never used to. That hasn’t happened to Morrison (with the exception of infield pop-ups which to me are pressing more than anything with age though I of course could be wrong). I’d be on him returning to form (not 2017 LM but 2014-2016 LM). That wouldn’t be big for a Twins team with Sano healthy and Escobar 3B/DHing but it is for a team giving Jake Cave and Grossman regular DH ABs.

[mngopherguy]

 

1.) Incorrect. The Twins control their own destiny. If they win out, they will win the division (and like the #1 seed. And be the loose basis for a major Hollywood motion picture). You can argue that in baseball controlling your own destiny is meaningless because of the number of games but they absolutely control their own destiny. I'd also argue that they control their own destiny in a real sense of the word because if they win every game against Cleveland, they should be in good shape. Did you watch that Cleveland pen last night? That’s not a team pulling away.

2.) Logan Morrison’s BABIP is 54 points lower than his career average. His K rate is lower than last year, he’s hitting LD at the same rate, his Ground Out/Air Out is more skewed towards Air Outs than ever before, and his walk rate is the same as his career average. He’s popping up in the IF more than he did in the past but other than that, it’s hard to see any real differences in his peripherals. I think you can very concretely say that bad luck has played a key role in his struggles. He’s popped the ball up a bit more but his BABIP being down 35% is likely a bigger causative effect. Those numbers should even out. He’s not 2017 Logan Morrison but he’s not this guy either.

 

I completely agree on Morrison which is why I'd at least consider another 1 year low value deal if he doesn't hit 600 PA's.  And considering how I expect payroll to go down next year, I don't see the team getting a top notch DH.

[Mr. Brooks]

I completely agree on Morrison which is why I'd at least consider another 1 year low value deal if he doesn't hit 600 PA's. And considering how I expect payroll to go down next year, I don't see the team getting a top notch DH.

600 PA's is where the option automatically vests. The team can pick up the option regardless, if they want to.

[Mr. Brooks]

Splitting this in two.

 

I’m not sure your point – we’re both saying that his underlying numbers haven’t changed. What seems to have happened is he’s popping the ball up more than driving it to the OF and his BABIP is crazy low (54 points is a lot). The first part may be approach (but also may be a sample size thing or a pressing thing) but the second part is the definition of luck. He’s put about the same number of balls into play and suffered way worse than expected results.

 

I agree that his age is a potential concern but he’s only 30. Also, generally you see other numbers change when a guy starts to lose it. His LD rate drops, he strikes out more, he’s swinging at pitches out of the zone he never used to. That hasn’t happened to Morrison (with the exception of infield pop-ups which to me are pressing more than anything with age though I of course could be wrong). I’d be on him returning to form (not 2017 LM but 2014-2016 LM). That wouldn’t be big for a Twins team with Sano healthy and Escobar 3B/DHing but it is for a team giving Jake Cave and Grossman regular DH ABs.

I'm not sure we know to what extent these extreme shifts can have on babip.

Some of it is probably luck, but some of the drop is going to be due to increased pop up and fly ball rates, and some is going to be from hitting it into the shift.

[tvagle]

Magic Number Afternoon Edition

 

Division: 81

Wild Card: 87

[Doomtints]

 

One could just as well take a flyer on Vargas, as the apparent flyer we took on Morrison. While Vargas may not be better, it's truly hard to be worse.

 

Vargas is better than Morrison.

[SwainZag]

 

Vargas is better than Morrison.

 

I'd like to hear you try and explain/prove this one.

[Doomtints]

 

I'd like to hear you try and explain/prove this one.

 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/

[Danchat]

 

I'd like to hear you try and explain/prove this one.

If the comparison is 2017 Vargas against 2018 Morrison, then it's easily Vargas. However, with the way Vargas has played at AAA in 2018, it's difficult to say. I think Vargas would be a little better batting average wise but he'd be taking less walks and more strikeouts than Logan.

[KirbyDome89]

 

See, weirdly, I’d be worried if they had been playing well. This team has more talent than it’s show so far which means they have the potential for another gear. Consider:

• Dozier goes nuclear like he does for two months sometimes. We’ve seen signs of this the past week.
• Mauer gets hot and is on base, taking professional at-bats
• Polanco isn’t even 2nd half Polanco, he just isn’t Adrianza
• Morrison and Kepler get a little better luck and start hitting some balls out (Morrison is getting hotter)
• They get an injection of talent from a revitalized Buxton or Sano (too much to ask for both but one seems okay)
• The starting pitching stays the same and they get a bit of an infusion from Romero/Gonsalves/Santana down the stretch

Does it seem crazy to think that they could go on a run? On paper they’re better than this and have been hurt by injuries/back luck. Cleveland is vulnerable with that pen, a top-heavy lineup, and the number of head-to-head games.

Yeah, it's asking a lot for 5+ players to all start playing well above where they have for the bulk of the season, and all at roughly the same time. Just look at that list....

 

Cleveland isn't a juggernaut by any means but you have to put some serious blinders on to start poking holes in that team while ignoring just how flawed the Twins roster is. Paper is irrelevant; they've played 89 games to this point and so far we can safely say this isn't a good team. 

[SwainZag]

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/