Article: Through Ten Games, Twins On Pace For 97 Wins

[Seth Stohs]

 

I will be happy if they finish April with anything over .500 winning %. Extrapolating the first 10 games into the whole season is a good elementary school math question but not much to do with a win-loss record. Way too may variables as we all know yesterday's game being a classic example. I'll take 90 wins any day and another shot at the Yankees in the playoffs.

 

Yeah, I hope that i didn't in any way imply that i think this means they'll win 97 games this season. I was just interesting to me that 6-4 is probably way better than we assume. 

[mikelink45]

I keep thinking about your projection this early in the season. If we take the opening series we project to 162 - 0 which of course was blown since then we are 3 - 4 which, if it is more realistic would mean we would be 69 wins this season so I will go out on an April limb and say we will win between 69 and 158 games this season!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I am intruiged with the three games Garver caught. Great pitching in them, all were wins.

 

The Twins won't face any lefties in the series against Chicago (scheduled for 4 games, will probably play 1 of them, maybe 2 if they play Sunday.) So I'd like to see Garver catch Berrios again tonight. (instead of Molitor playing the platoon split with Castro)

Edited April 12, 2018 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[spanman2]

IALTO

 

World Series, homeboy.

 

[Jham]

gmLI is really a measure on management trust and not pitching performance. It is all about Molitor's belief on his pitchers.

 

A couple days ago, I used Situational Run Expectancy (RE24) which measures how close to the average pitcher in a particular situation (bases loaded or empty, 8 runs up etc) a particular pitcher performs and Fangraphs "Clutch" which measures how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment, to analyse the Twins' pen. They are both WPA-based measurements. Results and conclusion here. These 2 measurement offer an interesting insight. I did not check them after yesterday's game, but I think that the conclusion is pretty close...

This is an awesome post. As I was looking at the dialogue re inherited runners and thinking a runner on 1st with 2 outs counts the same as runner on 3rd no one out, and that the start is pretty misleading in that regard, here you are crushing with numerous stats and comparisons balancing out the situational disparities! Well done good sir!

[jkcarew]

I think the most significant early trend impacting the Twins is LAA's start.

[gocgo]

 

Yeah, the weather factor ... is a factor. As Brock suggest, we need to wait another month before jumping to conclusions and tidy observations. But one thing I am in agreement on: Fernando Rodney is an unpredictable closer!

I don't recall the ball flying out of the ballpark like it is this year in the cold weather.

[Borealis]

I agree that stats are a ton of fun, but also feel it is presumptuous to state that a person doesn’t know baseball or that the math is too complicated when they aren’t on top of the latest advanced metrics.

 

I’m kinda new to TD but have already gathered that there’s an eye test crowd, a stat crowd, and a mixture of both out here. This can make for excellent debates! But some of the slights (from both sides) can get a little hard to stomach at times. Just one fella’s two cents.

 

[Platoon]

Kinda stuck with not firing the manager who got the MoY award, though...

Or, they could have fired the guy who lost 103? Pohlad may have saved Molitors job when Falvine came on board, but to me that has always left the impression that Molitor is the Twins manager because of his relationship with Pohlad.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think the most significant early trend impacting the Twins is LAA's start.

It's certainly something to watch but going into this season, I gave the Twins roughly a 33% chance of taking the division (only after the Lynn acquisition). They shouldn't be aiming for the Wild Card, even though that's likely where they end up competing. There's no reason this team can't challenge for a title in a weak division.

[kab21]

Right now the record doesn't tell us much and the stats don't tell us much more.

 

The one good thing is that they aren't off to a terrible start and they are doing kind of what we expect them to be doing. So far the bullpen and rotation both look improved and they played well against the Astros.

 

I expect Lynn/Odorizzi/Gibson to be competent low 4 ERA pitchers this year but BERRIOS START IS SOMETHING TO REALLY GET EXCITED ABOUT. 24K's and 1BB is pretty amazing even if it is SSS. He could be turning the corner in the #1/2 this organization needs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Right now the record doesn't tell us much and the stats don't tell us much more.

 

The one good thing is that they aren't off to a terrible start and they are doing kind of what we expect them to be doing. So far the bullpen and rotation both look improved and they played well against the Astros.

 

I expect Lynn/Odorizzi/Gibson to be competent low 4 ERA pitchers this year but BERRIOS START IS SOMETHING TO REALLY GET EXCITED ABOUT. 24K's and 1BB is pretty amazing even if it is SSS. He could be turning the corner in the #1/2 this organization needs.

Yes, all of this. The offense is firing about as well as most of us expected (some clunkers, some raking, it will balance out in time) but everything looks just a little bit better than it did last year.

 

The big variable is Berrios. He could be amazing.

 

And we haven't even seen Santana yet. I expect him to regress but still be solid.

 

This could be a really good team.

[laloesch]

 

Right now the record doesn't tell us much and the stats don't tell us much more.

 

The one good thing is that they aren't off to a terrible start and they are doing kind of what we expect them to be doing. So far the bullpen and rotation both look improved and they played well against the Astros.

 

I expect Lynn/Odorizzi/Gibson to be competent low 4 ERA pitchers this year but BERRIOS START IS SOMETHING TO REALLY GET EXCITED ABOUT. 24K's and 1BB is pretty amazing even if it is SSS. He could be turning the corner in the #1/2 this organization needs.

 

He certainly has a nice curveball and heat on his fastball to get guys out.

[h2oface]

No projection article coming from anybody after this week with the 2-8 second ten and the 8-12 record?

 

Something like....Through Twenty Games, Twins On Pace For 97 Losses

Edited April 27, 2018 by h2oface

[ashbury]

No projection article coming from anybody after this week with the 2-8 second ten and the 8-12 record?

 

Something like....Through Twenty Games, Twins On Pace For 97 Losses

Who would click on that?