Article: Twins 2018 Position Analysis: Second Base

[caninatl04]

Keep in mind, next season will include Harper, Machado, Kershaw, Blackmon, Donaldson, Andrew Miller, David Price has an opt out, Gio Gonzalez ... 

 

It's an insane class and one of the reasons owners are trying to keep prices low this offseason. There's a pretty good argument that Dozier won't be a top 10 free agent next year. So he could take the Twins one year offer and wait another year.

Yes, supply will be higher, but some big spending clubs, like The Evil Empire, will be out of Luxury Tax Repeat Offender jail, so, demand will also be higher.

 

I concur that the most likely outcome is a qualifying offer.

[bean5302]

Robinson Cano signed with the Mariners for 10 years and $240M at age 31 going in to 2014, but Cano did have a bit more ceiling and a better track record. Dozier isn't going to get close to that, but it's hard to argue Dozier isn't a premier player.

 

2B hasn't been a high demand spot, but Dozier is the second best 2B in MLB over the past 3 years, and he gives a 2.5 WAR upgrade over other "good" 2B options. That's a hell of a lot.

 

I'd be surprised if Dozier didn't command a 3-5 year contract at $75-100M.

[gagu]

mikelink45, on 09 Mar 2018 - 10:46 AM, said:

This was a good recap, but without Royce Lewis in the conversation it misses a key component of the plan.

 

Nick Nelson
Today, 11:34 AM

IMO Lewis will end up at either SS or CF. I don't see second base in his future. Could be wrong.

 

I think Mike was referring to Lewis taking over at short which would result in Gordon and Polanco both ending up at 2B. That's my take at least. It's a mix of the present and the future, but if Lewis is on the fast-track and stays at short, he becomes a key component and Polanco becomes part of the equation at 2B. I know that this is a big factor in my thinking in regards to Dozier's future with the Twins. That's why I'm on the fence now and will probably stay there until way into the season. Will Polanco continue to improve his defense at SS; will Lewis continue to move up quickly; does Gordon more potential of being a better than average second baseman, etc.

 

Anyway, it is still a good read. 

 

[Oxtung]

Here is the last 10 years of deals to 2B with more than $30 million in total value:

 

Player / Age / Years / Total $millions

 

2017-2018

 

2016-2017

 

2015-2016

Daniel Murphy / 31 / 3 / $37.5

Ben Zobrist / 35 / 4 / $56

 

2014-2015

 

2013-2014

Robinson Cano / 31 / 10 / $240

Omar Infante / 32 / 4 / $30 

 

2012-2013

 

2011-2012

 

2010-2011

 

2009-2010

 

2008-2009

Rafael Furcal / 31 / 3 / $30

 

In the history of baseball there has only been one deal worth more than $60 million dollars that has gone to a second baseman and he was a top 5 player in all of baseball.

 

This isn't to say that Dozier can't get a big deal or even that he won't break $60 million but he will be facing some long odds to do it.

Edited March 9, 2018 by Oxtung

[DocBauer]

Can you give me an example of "the media" taking this kind of stance? I haven't seen it. Most people -- even Dozier fans -- seem to understand the validity of the team's thinking from what I've seen.

 

 

Whoops, fixed. Thank you!

 

 

Unless he has a big setback this year, Dozier is going to get a contract approaching 100M. I have no doubt. He'll be viewed as much more of a Hosmer type than a Moustakas type.

 

 

IMO Lewis will end up at either SS or CF. I don't see second base in his future. Could be wrong.

OOPS! Or LF with Buxton in CF.

[DocBauer]

Sano isn't the 3rd baseman of the future unless something dramatic happens.

Escobar isn't the 3rd baseman of the future. Love him, but not at 3rd with his bat.

Gordon at SS is superior to Polanco at SS.

Polanco has some potential to replace a lot of Dozier's bat and add superior defense at 2B

There isn't anybody in MiLB who is an obvious solution for 3rd base n the next year or two.

Dozier's going to decline. He keeps defying all logic, but for the next few years, I could see him compensating for a bit of a weaker arm with superior range at 3rd base and his bat would play there.

Mauer probably isn't the solution at 3rd. His cannon arm is wasted at 1B, but his speed is on the decline and asking him to just learn a completely new, and this time more difficult, position seems like a tall order.

 

Maybe the Twins are just in the position where there are too many pieces moving to make a big commitment to Dozier.

Nice post. But Sano IS the future at 3B. The only question is how long the "future" is. Other than injury, rapid weight gain/total disinterest in work and conditioning/injury, there is still NOTHING to indicate in any way that Sano can't play at least a solid 3B, if not a really good 3B. Speculation is like a rampant disease!

 

Regardless, barring trade, we could still easily see a brilliant combination of Javier, Lewis, Polanco and Gordon taking over the infield on a few years.

[DocBauer]

It's more complicated than Gordon vs. Dozier for 2019:

 

• It is almost certain (if of course Dozier performs well in 2018) that the Twins will make a qualifying offer, which Dozier may or may not take.
• If he does not take it, and signs with another team, the Twins gain a high draft pick.
• Kinda hate it that Eduardo Escobar sounds like the forgotten man in this conversation. Regardless Gordon's readiness, he could be the Twins' second baseman in 2019.
• Asdrubal Cabrera, Logan Forsythe, Freddy Galvis, Ian Kinsler, D.J. LeMahieu, Jed Lowrie, Daniel Murphy, Sean Rodriguez are all free agents next off-season and will be competing with Dozier for a new job. That job might be with the Twins. Will the Twins be better off with LeMahieu (the premier defender at 2B in the game, plus a great, albeit less powerful bat) than Dozier (who is 2 years older) in the intermediate term?
• Will the Twins be better with Buxton and Polanco (their 2 fastest players based on statcast) on top of the order than Dozier and Mauer in 2019?
• The Twins let more popular players (Morneau for one, Gaetti for another) walk, and it was not the end of the world in the fanbase.

There is a lot in play here, and no way we can answer (or need to answer really) this right now. We got to see how 2018 goes for the Twins and Dozier, it will be a critical data point in the decision...

Couldn't agree with this more! Need multiple likes.

 

Much like Brock pointed out in another thread, it's Dozier's right to explore FA for the first time. It's also the Twins right to see how 2018 goes before making an offer.

 

There is a tremendous amount of fluidity going on here.

 

Personally, I'd still offer a 3 year extension that is fair, possibly with a 4th year option. Something along the lines of $14-15M per. If BD and his reps don't like it, so be it. I'd still bet it's the same kind of offer he'll receive as a FA.

 

I'd just rather lock up his next 3 years of very good to solid production and have it "in the bank" vs looking to replace it.

[Tommygun921]

Didn't the Twins play Rosario at 2nd at one time in the minors?

[LeatherAntenna]

Well written and fair--and sad.  Look what it takes to draft and develop a player like Dozier.  Look at all his contributions and pay him fairly.  Anyone else they can get to man 2B the next few years will fall short of his production.  Also, to those expecting a quick decline to his production because he is 31, he is likely to again prove the doubters wrong.

. Agreed, he may or may not soon start to decline. Given the nature of that which he has achieved, perhaps as a perennial underdog, I expect him to surprise us with great play for a long time yet wherever he plays and finishes his career. He is a joy to watch.

[Brandon]

I think Dozier will hit over 300 HRs in his career. I would like to see him do it in a Twins uniform. He could be 2nd all time in Franchise HRs. Who saw that comming?

 

Also Dozier is about to have 100 career steals as a Twin. That doesnt happen very often here.

 

Occasionally its good to keep players around who are contributing and climbing franchise all time list as there will be lots of post playing days marketing if he stays too fir the Twins...

 

Difference between Uggla and Dozier is speed and defense. Dozier has both Uggla had neither. There is a lot of value in that but also likely slows the aging curve for Dozier a little bit.

[ewen21]

I think Polanco and Kepler are two guys to watch this year,  If they make even just a small gain offensively this lineup with be very tough

[Broker]

Dozier is only 31. I figure he has 3 or 4 really good years left. Athletes playing at a high level in their mid 30s is not unusual at all.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I think some are really underestimating the gap in production between Dozier and the replacement (most likely Gordon). Over the past four years, Dozier has posted a 120 OPS+ while averaging 32 homers, 72 walks and 17 steals per season while playing above average defense.

 

Keeping Dozier is something a contending team would and should do. If we believe the window is open now for the Twins, why would they let him walk?

Exactly. 

 

He's so much more valuable to a good team. IMO the decision to hold onto him after losing 100+ games a few years ago, and the decision to let him walk now that the Twins look like they're opening a window of contention conflict. 

 

I'm all about building from within, but if we're being realistic the chances of any MI prospect stepping in and replacing Dozier's production are slim. I've read other posts that suggest other players aside from Gordon or whoever ends up at 2B continue to improve and pick up the slack, but wouldn't the team still be better off with Dozier + the improved supporting cast? 

 

The spark notes version is that it isn't as easy as just plug in prospect X and everybody improves so the team rolls along. If the Twins are serious about trying to win while Buxton, Sano, ect are all still under rookie deals/early arbitration then it's going to a hell of a lot easier with Dozier than without him. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

I would take the chance of letting Dozier go, if they plan to spend the money on a really good player. But if they don't think they can get such a player, I probably try hard to bring him back.

That's a fair point. If you could assure me that the $$ saved on a Dozier deal would be allocated entirely towards an area of greater need (hello starting pitching,) then I would be much more receptive to the idea of letting him go. 

 

I bring this up in a lot of threads, but they've put all their eggs in the development basket so I feel like every move this club makes hinges on what happens with the current core of players. How many of Buxton, Sano, Berrios, ect are sticking around past 21' or 22'? If all or a majority of those guys decide they're going to test FA what are the chances the Twins are willing to sign even half of them? It's likely in the best interest of Buxton, Sano, and Berrios to test FA, and depending on how Rosario and Polanco perform over the next season or two they might find themselves in that same boat. If a good portion of the current core is gone within the next 4-5 years, the Twins might be better off trying to maximize they currently have, and I think retaining Dozier is a step in that direction. 

[Mike Sixel]

Number two in all of baseball. Implying Dozier will get paid, imo.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-positional-power-rankings-second-base/

[Vanimal46]

Number two in all of baseball. Implying Dozier will get paid, imo.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-positional-power-rankings-second-base/

As he should. And I hope the Twins are the ones paying him.