Article: Is Another Arm Coming?

[Tomj14]

 

well, yeah, but you could just as easily imagine Gibson is decent and Romero and Gonsalves do well the first time around the league.  By then Erv is back and May is soon ready. 

Of course you could, but what is the better plan for success? Hope and pray or try to plan for all scenarios?

 

Why do people think May is going to comeback and be something he never has been at the age of 28?

unless I am missing something his last big league start was July 1st 2015, and since then had Tommy John surgery.

I hope like heck he comes bad and turns into the pitcher everybody hoped he would be 6 years ago.

[Physics Guy]

Would you give Cobb the same offer Lynn got? 2/$20mil?

I prefer Cobb to Lynn, so yes I would offer him that.

[Oxtung]

 

I prefer Cobb to Lynn, so yes I would offer him that.

Why?

[HitInAPinch]

 

How would the team be subtracting the Hughes/Gibson salaries?

Unfortunately, it looks like the Twins resigned Gibson.  Terrible mistake, imho.

Trade Hughes for a PTBNL. Any player....

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

In a perfect world where Romero and Gonsalves pan out and can make 25-30 starts in the majors next year that works.

But in the real world you have to plan in case things don't.

Imagine we extend Dozier and Buxton, and Gibson sucks, Odorizz is average, Romero can't handle starting and Gonzo is just a 4 or 5.

Then we are in the same place we have been, looking to trade Dozier/Santana  and playing for 2021 or 2022 when the pitchers in A ball come up.

 

I say offer Cobb or Lynn 15 million for one year and a team option for another 15 million with a couple million buy out.

I am not worried about losing the pick or the 40 man spot. Since Vargas and Sanchez.

 

I think to get this done you'd have to offer a player option. So two years $28 million with $15 million this year. That way the player is a little protected in case of injury (which is what players want for long term deals) but still have the ability to get out after a year if they pitch super well.

[Thrylos]

There is only one free agent arm that might make sense for the Twins right now: 

Greg Holland on an 1 yr contract plus and option...

[notoriousgod71]

Sign all three.

[nicksaviking]

Unfortunately, it looks like the Twins resigned Gibson.  Terrible mistake, imho.

Trade Hughes for a PTBNL. Any player....

No team wants Hughes and his contract, the Twins couldn't trade him even if they ate 90% of his contract. Gibson wasn't expensive and he was the Twins best starter the last three months of last year.

[Mr. Brooks]

No team wants Hughes and his contract, the Twins couldn't trade him even if they ate 90% of his contract. Gibson wasn't expensive and he was the Twins best starter the last three months of last year.

Do the rest of the months, when he was the Twins worst starter count?

 

And for the record, he was awful in July, so he was good for 2 months.

[GP830]

I’m hoping a signing isn’t coming. I’d rather stick with for Romero and a Gonsalves than sign Cobb or Lynn or any of the other remaining FA’s.

 

HOWEVER, I would love it if a trade for a legit #1 was in the works.

[nicksaviking]

Do the rest of the months, when he was the Twins worst starter count?

And for the record, he was awful in July, so he was good for 2 months.

The rest of the months count much less.

 

He made the wise decision to work his four seamer and reduce his two seamer those months while Lynn did the opposite. His improvement was most likely due to a change in philosophy; who in their right mind would dump him after he finally demonstrated that he understood what his problem was, took action on it and succeeded?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The rest of the months count much less.

 

He made the wise decision to work his four seamer and reduce his two seamer those months while Lynn did the opposite. His improvement was most likely due to a change in philosophy; who in their right mind would dump him after he finally demonstrated that he understood what his problem was, took action on it and succeeded?

2017 looked just like his career. While getting an Arbitration salary there’s value with Gibson, but i don’t buy that he turned a corner. Same with Lynn or Cobb, I think either one of them would be a not huge, but decent upgrade over Gibson. Maybe working with Alston and Falvey can improve value from one of them. That’s a huge improvement over Hughes or Sanchez and slots Mejia in 5th, Gibson in 4th. So you’d have fewer starts from the weakest links.

 

When Santana comes back, exercise Mejia’s option and now you could have a heck of a solid 1-5 rotation. No Ace per say, but good as a whole, at least good enough to get 90 wins if they hit like last year.

[Mr. Brooks]

The rest of the months count much less.

 

He made the wise decision to work his four seamer and reduce his two seamer those months while Lynn did the opposite. His improvement was most likely due to a change in philosophy; who in their right mind would dump him after he finally demonstrated that he understood what his problem was, took action on it and succeeded?

I never suggested dumping him.

But I don't think he's suddenly a good pitcher either.

He's not the first mediocre pitcher to have a good 2 month stretch.

He's been pretty consistent the last couple years, and that's likely about what he'll be again in 2018.

[ashbury]

who in their right mind would dump him after he finally demonstrated that he understood what his problem was, took action on it and succeeded?

Someone who looked at his final 3 starts of the season and concluded, "whoops, never mind about some mythical corner having been turned"?

[KirbyDome89]

 

I never suggested dumping him.
But I don't think he's suddenly a good pitcher either.
He's not the first mediocre pitcher to have a good 2 month stretch.
He's been pretty consistent the last couple years, and that's likely about what he'll be again in 2018.

He has been consistently inconsistent. 

 

I'm not sure why we're supposed to put more stock into a handful of games against bad teams and expanded rosters rather than almost 2 years of entirely underwhelming pitching. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

He has been consistently inconsistent.

 

I'm not sure why we're supposed to put more stock into a handful of games against bad teams and expanded rosters rather than almost 2 years of entirely underwhelming pitching.

its Gleeman and the Geek

 

Bonnes: Gibson’s turned the corner! Let’s get him wrapped up before he gets expensive

 

Gleeman: he does this every year... his stats are always the same and yet you want to get into a long term contract. He’s a 5th starter John, you need to produce a new Gibson from your farm system before he becomes a free agent.

Bonnes: I think he figured it out

 

Sconnie (shouting at car stereo): we already have Gibson 2.0 in Mejia, let’s improve the front of the rotation

Edited March 10, 2018 by Sconnie

[specialiststeve]

 

Would you give Cobb the same offer Lynn got? 2/$20mil? 

If it comes down to Cobb I would only do a one year offer. We have the young studs in the wings ready to roll. With Cobbs numbers not that great recently why would we do anything else?

[Physics Guy]

Why?

Why not? Do you think there is a significant difference between Cobb and Lynn? Cobb put up two seasons prior to TJ surgery with sub-3 ERA and 8K/9 in the AL East. My biggest concern with him is a lack of innings, although he put up about 180 last year.

[Oxtung]

 

Why not? Do you think there is a significant difference between Cobb and Lynn? Cobb put up two seasons prior to TJ surgery with sub-3 ERA and 8K/9 in the AL East. My biggest concern with him is a lack of innings, although he put up about 180 last year.

Cobb has lost his splitter which was his best pitch by far. His swinging strike rate went from 21% to 12% and his SLG% against went from .252 to .514 on his splitter with a similar increase in BA. Because of this he threw it about half as often in 2017. As such I don't think what he did in 2014 has any bearing on what happens in 2018 for Alex Cobb. He is a totally different pitcher post TJ.

[jokin]

 

Why not? Do you think there is a significant difference between Cobb and Lynn? Cobb put up two seasons prior to TJ surgery with sub-3 ERA and 8K/9 in the AL East. My biggest concern with him is a lack of innings, although he put up about 180 last year.

 

There is a difference between the two from what I can tell. Cobb finished the season very strong. By contrast, Lynn's numbers declined alarmingly as the season proceeded. And need we forget how few NL pitchers have come in here and helped?

 

First half:

 

Cobb- K/9 5.31 BB/9 2.34 GB% 45.4

Lynn- K/9 8.18 BB/0 3.34 GB% 52.3

 

Second half:

 

Cobb- K/9 7.31   BB/9 1.97 GB% 52.3

Lynn- K/9 6.43   BB/9  4.29 GB% 46.1 

 

In the last two months, the case for Cobb becomes even more compelling:

 

Aug/Sep:

 

Cobb- K/9 8.92 BB/9 1.88 GB% 54.1

Lynn- K/9 6.49 BB/9 4.83 GB% 45.7

[jokin]

 

Cobb has lost his splitter which was his best pitch by far. His swinging strike rate went from 21% to 12% and his SLG% against went from .252 to .514 on his splitter with a similar increase in BA. Because of this he threw it about half as often in 2017. As such I don't think what he did in 2014 has any bearing on what happens in 2018 for Alex Cobb. He is a totally different pitcher post TJ.

 

I think it's fair to say both Cobb and Lynn are different pitchers post-injury years. But Cobb hands down looks like the better adapter to the reality of his new skill set. And as posted above, Cobb improved significantly as he adapted as the season progressed, while Lynn was notably wilder and less able to generate KOs and ground balls.

Edited March 10, 2018 by jokin

[Physics Guy]

Cobb vs Lynn doesn't much matter now. I just hope Lynn can start 30+ with an ERA under 4. If so, he's a good signing.