Buxton Extension Talks

[ewen21]

The Twins don't have to do this. They are in a position of strength here. I think Buxton probably also wants to leave his FA option open when he's still young. Locking him up for 7 years sounds good, but I'm not sure he's willing to do that. I'm thinking he wants to hit the market as scheduled. I see nothing insulting with a 5/30 million deal. YES that gives us just one year of team control but it also allows us to monitor his progress AND he and family are nicely compensated.

 

 

People seem to forget how lost he was the first five weeks of the season last year. The kid seemed to have zero confidence and that was SCARY. I cannot brush it under the rug. I saw it and it happened.

 

To me, 5/30 is a fair good faith deal. Definitely not insulting when you consider where the kid is right now. To forecast forward any more than a few years is a fools errand in baseball. I am not inclined to believe anyone (Buxton included) is worthy of a 10 year deal. It defies common sense. If Buxton were 26 and had two strong seasons where his WAR was over 5 then I think about a big deal. Even in that situation, doling out guaranteed money over seven or eight years to a guy like Buxton who relies on his legs and acrobatics in the outfield is dangerous. Everything can change in the snap of a finger. Far more so for that guy than say a slugger like Stanton. It's just reality and for all his awesomeness, this will work against Buxton as far as money goes. The Jason Heyward experiment was a dismal failure. Sabremetric value based in speed and defense is a fleeting thing. That kind of stuff just isn't (to use a word in sabremetic parlance) "sustainable"

Eventually injuries happen and those things diminish. Guys like Stanton are a different story. Players who hit for power and who are durable and a much safer bet.

 

This is no knock on Buxton. Rather, it's common sense.

[amjgt]

I think the injury risk with position players is much lower than pitchers... even one as aggressive as Buxton. A pitcher can tweak something and be out for a year, whereas injuries that affect position players rarely go more than a couple months. I think a historical look at the 60 day DL would show this clearly.  

[AZTwin]

I would much rather extend Buxton than Sano

[Mike Sixel]

He would be insane to take that tiny amount.

[Loosey]

Assuming he continues to improve offensively I think the Twins need to get him locked up or they will be looking at a very expensive contract in a year or two.

 

He is Free Agent Eligible in 2022.  

 

So 2019, 2020, 2021 he is arbitration eligible.

 

If I am am the Twins I assume he is getting $10M at least those years.  Rip up the contract and offer him a new deal which includes this season.  So 2018-2023, buying two years of free agency and start with 6/$78M.  That's $13M a year.  Guaranteed.  It could be bargain by the end of this season.  The Twins would have him through 30 years old season  and he has $80M in his pocket.  If he lives up to the hype he could then get another 4-6 year deal average $20M+ on that next contract.

 

 

[Oxtung]

The other end of this extension spectrum is Kiermaier. He signed an extension with only 2 years of playing time as well, though he is older than Buxton and 26 when he signed, for 6 years $50 million and an option year for $13+ million.

 

I'd be happy with giving Buxton a similar deal but with some big escalators on that option year for him. That way if he becomes the hitter we are all hoping for he gets rewarded for it. He would still hit FA at 30 years old. I'd also try to pay out the money at an even rate which would help with the late years payroll.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think the injury risk with position players is much lower than pitchers... even one as aggressive as Buxton. A pitcher can tweak something and be out for a year, whereas injuries that affect position players rarely go more than a couple months. I think a historical look at the 60 day DL would show this clearly.  

Absolutely true, although it would be riskier for Buxton than other position players -- an injury that allows him to play but reduces his speed, even temporarily, would put a significant dent in his value. As opposed to a player you could just shift down the defensive spectrum or even park at DH awhile.

[beckmt]

 

I'm not sure Harper won't get 400m from the Yankees or the Red Sox. Trout's contract has him making about 34m/year so that's the minimum right there. Harper will be 26 next year.  He wouldn't be nuts for asking for a 10 year deal. Stanton got a 13yr/325m deal that included some arb years. 

 

Machado won't be far behind.

That is why I proposed what I did.  With the current price of WAR and the fact he will still be able to hit FA at 31.  I think I may be light, but if you wait until after this year and Buxton does well, you have little chance of extending him.

[ahart10]

Don’t forget Buxton was an early draft pick who signed for a big payday once already. I think it less likely he signs anything beyond his arb years. Signing a deal so he doesn’t have to go through arb meetings is what I would do if I were him.

 

Side note: paying a player who’s game is based on speed into their 30’s is folly.

[Otto von Ballpark]

What if Buxton goes the Dozier route, and says no FA years, but will take something like 4/30 -- is that worth it, for us?

[ewen21]

 

Absolutely true, although it would be riskier for Buxton than other position players -- an injury that allows him to play but reduces his speed, even temporarily, would put a significant dent in his value. As opposed to a player you could just shift down the defensive spectrum or even park at DH awhile.

 

THIS is my biggest concern with Buxton.  How long is he going to be the player we saw last year?  With each diving catch and full on sprint risk piles up.  I want him to be a more complete player as he cannot rely solely on being fast and dynamic in the field.  He really has to improve as a hitter.  I have read, "even if he just hits to a .720 OPS he still has tremendous value"

For how long?  And besides, he was touted for years as a five tool guy.  Two tools are hitting for average and hitting for power.  He needs to increase both in my opinion.  I am not talking about 30 home runs, nor am I talking about legging out grounders or bunting.  I think with work he can be a legit gap hitter with more than enough power to average 20 to 30 home runs a year, if healthy.  He SHOULD be able to hit over .280 with his speed and that DOES matter.

 

Seems like everyone wants to point out the awesomeness of Buxton and there is certainly room for that.  I go to many Twins discussion boards and the other side of the coin is rarely discussed.  There are valid concerns to be had for as high his ceiling may be.  The development of his bat and quieting down his mechanics all around is something that needs to happen for him to truly develop.  He can't go on raw tools for his whole baseball life.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Don’t forget Buxton was an early draft pick who signed for a big payday once already. I think it less likely he signs anything beyond his arb years. Signing a deal so he doesn’t have to go through arb meetings is what I would do if I were him.

Good point.

 

Herrera only signed for a $160k bonus. I suspect Inciarte did no better. Kiermaier was a 31st round pick. Interestingly, both Herrera and Inciarte were later left unprotected in Rule 5 too. And none of those 3 ever ranked in a top 100 prospect list, per B-Ref.

 

Buxton, of course, got $6 mil, and we are all quite familiar with his rankings over the years.

 

[Mike Sixel]

Fangraphs wrote an article last year pointing out these deals are dead for elite players. Buxton would be bucking the trend at this point. If he turns out to be great, he's losing tens of millions.

[ewen21]

 

Don’t forget Buxton was an early draft pick who signed for a big payday once already. I think it less likely he signs anything beyond his arb years. Signing a deal so he doesn’t have to go through arb meetings is what I would do if I were him.

Side note: paying a player who’s game is based on speed into their 30’s is folly.

All of this.  Doesn't seem like people consider Buxton when they talk about going beyond five years.  Signing him to a 7 year deal now?  Why is he going to do that??  Why is he interested in remaining locked in with his ceiling being so high?  Players want to get to free agency to see what they can get in the open market.  I would say you are right in that this is protection against arbitration hearings and unneeded distractions.  Imagining 7 year deals is pie in the sky stuff.

 

And yes...

If his game is going to be based in speed and he is going to hover in the low .700s OPS wise then he doesn't warrant the "untouchable" tag.  He has to get that OPS over .800 and hit for more average, in my opinion.  Everything cannot be rooted in "Byron Buxton is so fast"

 

And one last thing....

Is it me, or should he be stealing more bases?  For a guy so fast he really doesn't steal a whole lot.

[ewen21]

 

Fangraphs wrote an article last year pointing out these deals are dead for elite players. Buxton would be bucking the trend at this point. If he turns out to be great, he's losing tens of millions.

It makes zero sense for Buxton to sign something beyond his arbitration years.  How does it benefit him?  If he is a player who loves the organization and wants to stay a Twin and is willing to be a leader, a la Longoria.....maybe.

 

Like you say, these deals that steal FA years from the player are not deals agents are going to sign.  No way, no how.

[Shaitan]

There's no reason for him to sign now, other than avoiding arbitration. What do the Twins or Buxton gain by signing a contract that doesn't extend into FA years? Less paperwork?

[ewen21]

 

There's no reason for him to sign now, other than avoiding arbitration. What do the Twins or Buxton gain by signing a contract that doesn't extend into FA years? Less paperwork?

1. Reward a player with a good faith deal

2. Avoid arbitration

3. Clear the kid's mind of everything except baseball

 

All good things.

 

And yes.  I don't get the idea about extending him to the point where it wipes out his ability to be a FA.  That is like enslavement to a ballplayer.  It works only for the Twins.  

[nicksaviking]

Fangraphs wrote an article last year pointing out these deals are dead for elite players. Buxton would be bucking the trend at this point. If he turns out to be great, he's losing tens of millions.

That's what they'd have to do it before he becomes elite.

[ahart10]

Final arb year

$20 team option

$25 team option

$30 player option

$30 player option

Crazy??

[Oxtung]

 

THIS is my biggest concern with Buxton.  How long is he going to be the player we saw last year?  With each diving catch and full on sprint risk piles up.  I want him to be a more complete player as he cannot rely solely on being fast and dynamic in the field.  He really has to improve as a hitter.  I have read, "even if he just hits to a .720 OPS he still has tremendous value"

For how long?  And besides, he was touted for years as a five tool guy.  Two tools are hitting for average and hitting for power.  He needs to increase both in my opinion.  I am not talking about 30 home runs, nor am I talking about legging out grounders or bunting.  I think with work he can be a legit gap hitter with more than enough power to average 20 to 30 home runs a year, if healthy.  He SHOULD be able to hit over .280 with his speed and that DOES matter.

 

Seems like everyone wants to point out the awesomeness of Buxton and there is certainly room for that.  I go to many Twins discussion boards and the other side of the coin is rarely discussed.  There are valid concerns to be had for as high his ceiling may be.  The development of his bat and quieting down his mechanics all around is something that needs to happen for him to truly develop.  He can't go on raw tools for his whole baseball life.

 

From the Twins perspective I don't understand the angst you're displaying. Let's say the Twins sign him to a 5 year $30 million dollar extension since that was the original proposition; that is an AAV of $6 million. Worst case scenario is Buxton never puts the bat together and he loses some speed which would basically make him a 4th OF. Well Jared Dyson just signed as a 4th OF at $3.75 million AAV. Given inflation in baseball $6 million for a 4th OF  five years from now seems within an acceptable range. 

 

So as far as I can see there is very little downside with significant upside to this deal for the Twins.

[Kelly Vance]

He is betting against injury if he plays out the years and turns FA. But his value will be sky high if he develops into the 5 tool player he was drafted to be. Thing is, he is just stepping into the room of elite outfielders. His last year defensive heroics has put him on the map, so he is a gold glove candidate from now on. His reputation is made. So, if his hitting comes around, he will join that elite category of players that you build a team around. Those guys are rare. So he will command a Willy Mays treatment, because with these kinds of FA contracts, part of what you get paid for is potential. If the Twins don't lock him up, someone will value him that high. I know, same old story.

 

But I think the Twins FO ought to make an effort to sign up our core players to five year extensions. The idea is that everyone buys in and this is our window. The only exception being Polanco. We have a lot of guys coming up at SS. I'd go 4 for Dozier and 2 for Mauer. 

 

And as for speed. The thing about speed is that it never goes into a slump. I think Buck is one of those guys that will stay fast for a while into his mid thirties. He needs to learn to bunt like Carew.

[Tomj14]

 

THIS is my biggest concern with Buxton.  How long is he going to be the player we saw last year?  With each diving catch and full on sprint risk piles up.  I want him to be a more complete player as he cannot rely solely on being fast and dynamic in the field.  He really has to improve as a hitter.  I have read, "even if he just hits to a .720 OPS he still has tremendous value"

 

If I felt this way about Buxton I would be looking to trade him right now. I understand the concern, but every 24 year old has concerns.

[KirbyDome89]

 

With the same 2-3 team option years as Inciarte/Herrera, that would be an incredible deal for the Twins.

 

But would you do something like 5/35, without the team option years? That would give us 1 FA season, and let Buxton hit the market entering his age-29 season.

I would be extremely disappointed if it was MN passing on almost any kind of extension that bought out FA years.

 

What if Buxton goes the Dozier route, and says no FA years, but will take something like 4/30 -- is that worth it, for us?

That's a really good question. Even if Buxton never becomes the hitter we hope he will, they probably still save some $$ buying out those arbitration seasons, and we know the FO/ownership loves "value." Maybe Buxton enjoys might enjoy some of the security security provided. IMO this is really the only type of extension that makes sense if I'm Buxton and it probably works out for the Twins too. From a fan perspective it's underwhelming.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There's no reason for him to sign now, other than avoiding arbitration. What do the Twins or Buxton gain by signing a contract that doesn't extend into FA years? Less paperwork?

Well, just using hypothetical numbers -- Buxton could get a guaranteed ~$30 mil over the next 4 years, avoiding the risk of making less than that in exchange for forgoing the potential to make more. He could also get more of that money up front rather than waiting several years.

 

That all has some value to both the team and to the player, although admittedly not nearly as much as option years would have to the team, or a larger guaranteed "megadeal" would have to the player.

[Steve Lein]

 

There is no arguing that.  Maybe it's me.

 

I have a paranoid fear of him getting injured.  When I first saw the kid running I just saw arms and legs flying everywhere.  Kind of reminded me of Jose Reyes and Reyes was oft injured.  He is also so much of a daredevil in the outfield.  It is great to see highlight reel catches but he hits walls HARD.  Hunter seemed to have a lot more awareness when it came to that.  Byron is like Evel Kenevel.

 

No one else is concerned about this?

 

Yes, I have always been concerned and have talked about how reckless and non-pretty his plays at the wall are several times. (The plays are awesome, but his landings/crashes are not)

 

Hunter was graceful at the wall. Buxton is a head-on collision there.

[ewen21]

 

From the Twins perspective I don't understand the angst you're displaying. Let's say the Twins sign him to a 5 year $30 million dollar extension since that was the original proposition; that is an AAV of $6 million. Worst case scenario is Buxton never puts the bat together and he loses some speed which would basically make him a 4th OF. Well Jared Dyson just signed as a 4th OF at $3.75 million AAV. Given inflation in baseball $6 million for a 4th OF  five years from now seems within an acceptable range. 

 

So as far as I can see there is very little downside with significant upside to this deal for the Twins.

I'm displaying "angst"??

 

Not sure why this kind of thing happens.  It is almost as though you use that word to characterize me as being irrational in sort of an underhanded way.  Or that you're hoping to create an issue.  No, man.  I am pretty comfortable with this discussion.  I also first proposed a 5/30 deal as something I would do.  

 

Upon further review, I actually updated my opinion and wondered why Buxton would consider any kind of deal that would steal away FA years in favor of team control.  It actually makes no sense for him.  To make it make sense for him the Twins would need to make a deal that doesn't make a lot of sense for them.

 

Can we have a discussion here without characterizing people's opinions as being rooted in anger?  I posted this stuff from a diner.  I have a day off from work today.  I am very comfortable and relaxed.  I had a great night out last night.  Angst is a million miles away, Chico  

[ewen21]

 

If I felt this way about Buxton I would be looking to trade him right now. I understand the concern, but every 24 year old has concerns.

 

His concerns are different than the ordinary 24 year old player for obvious reasons.

[Vanimal46]

Well, just using hypothetical numbers -- Buxton could get a guaranteed ~$30 mil over the next 4 years, avoiding the risk of making less than that in exchange for forgoing the potential to make more. He could also get more of that money up front rather than waiting several years.

 

That all has some value to both the team and to the player, although admittedly not nearly as much as option years would have to the team, or a larger guaranteed "megadeal" would have to the player.

Another thing that hasn't been mentioned yet is arbitration is generally not friendly to profiles like Buxton... That being someone who generates a majority of his value via fielding and speed.

 

As an example, Kevin Pillar. He received $3.25 MM in his first arb season as a .700 OPS hitter and great fielder. Granted Buxton had 2.3 bWAR more than Pillar last year.

[Tomj14]

 

His concerns are different than the ordinary 24 year old player for obvious reasons.

agree to disagree, he has way less concerns than most 24 year olds. Most 24 year old have the concern of just making it to the majors, that concern is gone. How many real injuries has he had in his 6 years here? I don't know the answer but it is less than the Sano.

[ewen21]

 

Yes, I have always been concerned and have talked about how reckless and non-pretty his plays at the wall are several times. (The plays are awesome, but his landings/crashes are not)

 

Hunter was graceful at the wall. Buxton is a head-on collision there.

 

Agree.  I also was a bit alarmed with his base running when I first saw him.  He has a lot of exaggerated motions, arms and legs flailing.  This sort of player is tough to project.  There have not been too many speed first guys who last a long time.  The potential for collisions in the outfield are another thing.  He had that terrible one in New Britain and he has had a couple of near misses.  These are valid concerns, in my opinion.