Yahoo Sports Says Both Twins and Cardinals Pursuing Trade with Rays for Chris Archer

[drjim]

MLB gives a lot of weight to how close a prospect is to the majors.

Plus it hasn't been updated yet.

[drjim]

BA Top 100 drops tomorrow. I imagine Lewis is in the 20s and Gordon isn't on the list.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

No, it really isn't. You are wrong. Gordon cannot be plugged into a lineup "right now" without getting pretty bad results on both offense and defense. There are probably less than a handful of teams that need a SS so bad they would consider starting Gordon this coming season, and none of them are anywhere near making the playoffs, so all of them might as well sign a replacement level or slightly better SS and wait a year or two more for Lewis to reach his much higher ceiling. Yes, nothing is for certain, but any GM that values Gordon higher than Lewisat this point is suspect.

Lewis is the better prospect but it's not an enormous gulf.

 

Just the fact that Gordon is more likely to actually stick at short keeps them relatively close in value. Lewis could be a great player if he sticks at shortstop but his value takes a serious hit if he has to move to second base or the outfield.

[Mr. Brooks]

Lewis is the better prospect but it's not an enormous gulf.

 

Just the fact that Gordon is more likely to actually stick at short keeps them relatively close in value. Lewis could be a great player if he sticks at shortstop but his value takes a serious hit if he has to move to second base or the outfield.

I'm not sure. I'll be interested when the updated lists start to post. I think there could be significant separation between those two when they do.

[drjim]

Lewis is the better prospect but it's not an enormous gulf.

 

Just the fact that Gordon is more likely to actually stick at short keeps them relatively close in value. Lewis could be a great player if he sticks at shortstop but his value takes a serious hit if he has to move to second base or the outfield.

BA was an outlier, but they had Lewis at 1 and Gordon at 8.

 

I also think we might be underselling Lewis a little, he could be top 5 by the end of next year. Gordon will be lucky to sneak into top 100 lists.

[howeda7]

Can we get Archer straight-up for Sano? If so I'd do it. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Can we get Archer straight-up for Sano? If so I'd do it. 

Sano is the better player, he's also cheaper and younger. So, yeah. We could do that. I'm sure Falvey would fire Lavine a moment or two later though.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

Gordon will be lucky to sneak into top 100 lists.

I think that's a little over the top. Sickels had him #2, with a B+. I expect him to be on most top 100 lists. Right now, I think the only team lists that have come out for the Twins are BA and Sickels, correct?

[howeda7]

 

Sano is the better player, he's also cheaper and younger. So, yeah. We could do that. I'm sure Falvey would fire Lavine a moment or two later though.

Given his health and off the field issues, I'm not sure I agree. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

If we still had Duending it would be easy to make a deal.

Nice idea, but the delivery was lacking.

[Doctor Wu]

I like Archer a lot, and would love to have him in the Twins' rotation. But I really really would NOT want to include Lewis in any trade package. Keep your number one pick. I think in terms of a potential Chipper Jones-like career. You don't trade those sorts of players for good but not elite-level pitchers.

[Doctor Wu]

I think, ultimately, the Twins end up with one of Archer and Darvish.  Maybe both; who knows.

 

My hunch is that we end up getting neither pitcher. But hey, I'd love to be proved wrong!

[Platoon]

Sano is the better player, he's also cheaper and younger. So, yeah. We could do that. I'm sure Falvey would fire Lavine a moment or two later though.

Sano is all the things you mentioned. But the health, conditioning and "baggage" issues mitigate those pluses. What Sano is not is a pitcher. One could easily say that Sano is too valuable to trade. And if that's ends up precluding a SP acquisition, then Sano will likely end up his Twins career as a fairly decent DH on a team that is always on the fringe of the second WC slot. The Twins dilemma is not about upgrading a position like RF or even SS, it's about upgrading the entire team with one core player. And you are not going to get such a player at a market price. The Twins are in a "what can you do for me now" period.

[laloesch]

I'd include Lewis to get Archer.  This team is built to win soon (as in next 3 or 4 years).  Lewis won't even make it to the majors before Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, etc. are hitting free agency.  I'd be willing to make that sacrifice considering its the clubs area of greatest depth.      

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

None of us have any idea which players TB would actually value, but history and TB's tendencies absolutely tell us MLB ready players are weighted heavier by teams in these deals. Giving a team 15 options instead of 5 seems like a significant advantage. Maybe the other team's group of five ends up having players TB desires more, but having 15 certainly gives the Twins better odds.

 

I don't think this type of trade is going to be an "either quantity or quality" type trade. It's likely going to be both. As has been pointed out repeatedly this offseason, we have way too many pitchers on the 40 man. I could see a trade for Archer, but at least two of those pitchers head to TB (probably something like one of Gonsalves/Romero/Littell and one of Jorge, Enns, Slegers, or Mejia)... that doesn't bother me too much personally... but TB will want some quality as well, and while I'm pretty high on the first three pitchers, I don't think the quality is high enough for them to do it on their own. As I said before, I have to think a guy like Lewis is likely in consideration. I don't think Gordon's stock has dropped as much as some around here think either, but given Dozier is a FA next year, I don't really see a fit for Gordon from either team's side.

 

TB will want some upside, so a guy like Graterol or Lewis would have to be in consideration. That's why I'd rather spend the money on Darvish. Save those bullets for mid-season when someone invariably gets hurt. If they trade for Archer and he gets hurt, then what?

[gunnarthor]

 

Sano is all the things you mentioned. But the health, conditioning and "baggage" issues mitigate those pluses. What Sano is not is a pitcher. One could easily say that Sano is too valuable to trade. And if that's ends up precluding a SP acquisition, then Sano will likely end up his Twins career as a fairly decent DH on a team that is always on the fringe of the second WC slot. The Twins dilemma is not about upgrading a position like RF or even SS, it's about upgrading the entire team with one core player. And you are not going to get such a player at a market price. The Twins are in a "what can you do for me now" period.

There are ways to improve pitching that don't include getting rid of our primary offensive threat. It's not either/or. Sano should be a cornerstone of our team for the next four years. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

BA was an outlier, but they had Lewis at 1 and Gordon at 8.

I also think we might be underselling Lewis a little, he could be top 5 by the end of next year. Gordon will be lucky to sneak into top 100 lists.

Whoa, I think that's an exaggeration.

 

Gordon had an outstanding first half of the season. He's coming off an age 21 season in AA. Despite his second half collapse, he improved pretty much across the board over his A+ season, where he landed on every major top 100 list, settling around #50 on most of them.

 

I doubt Gordon regresses much on lists. He may drift down into the 70s on a few of them but there's no reason to punish the guy to the point where he's off the top 100 list entirely. That doesn't make sense. Gordon's stock didn't change much from 2016 to 2017; if anything, he showed a level of potential that we hadn't seen for more than a month or two in previous seasons and he did it at a young age in the upper minors.

 

The only reason to knock Gordon down the list is his struggles against LHP and it's not as if that's uncommon in lefty batters, even the good ones. Everything else about the kid looks pretty much as it did 12 months ago, he simply did it all at a higher level this season (which is a good thing, not a bad thing).

[nytwinsfan]

 

Lewis is the better prospect but it's not an enormous gulf.

 

Just the fact that Gordon is more likely to actually stick at short keeps them relatively close in value. Lewis could be a great player if he sticks at shortstop but his value takes a serious hit if he has to move to second base or the outfield.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-mlb-prospects-2018/#KMO8v94rAQoF63cd.97

 

Lewis: 24

Gordon: 93

 

I don't think it is at all clear that Gordon is more likely to stick at SS than Lewis. That's not what I've heard of late, given Gordon's errors and Lewis's athleticism and the strides he reportedly made on D in one half season. And plus, even if that were true, Lewis has much more upside as a SS as a hitter/baserunner than Gordon, and Lewis's fallback is CF, Gordon's is 2B. Both those facts also make a huge difference. Gordon is a valuable prospect, but the idea that he's as valuable or nearly as valuable as Lewis is not convincing.

[Doomtints]

 

There are ways to improve pitching that don't include getting rid of our primary offensive threat. It's not either/or. Sano should be a cornerstone of our team for the next four years. 

 

Right. If Sano + Archer are the primary assets in a trade, it should be the Rays adding secondary assets and not the Twins. Sano's ceiling is miles above Archer's.

 

And if the Twins are considering giving up pitching prospects for Archer ... they need to stop whatever it is they're doing and simply go on sick leave until they get their heads back on straight.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-mlb-prospects-2018/#KMO8v94rAQoF63cd.97

 

Lewis: 24

Gordon: 93

 

I don't think it is at all clear that Gordon is more likely to stick at SS than Lewis. That's not what I've heard of late, given Gordon's errors and Lewis's athleticism and the strides he reportedly made on D in one half season. And plus, even if that were true, Lewis has much more upside as a SS as a hitter/baserunner than Gordon, and Lewis's fallback is CF, Gordon's is 2B. Both those facts also make a huge difference. Gordon is a valuable prospect, but the idea that he's as valuable or nearly as valuable as Lewis is not convincing.

Interesting, but isn't BA known for prioritizing ceiling over performance? Or am I confusing them with BP again?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-mlb-prospects-2018/#KMO8v94rAQoF63cd.97

 

Lewis: 24

Gordon: 93

 

I don't think it is at all clear that Gordon is more likely to stick at SS than Lewis. That's not what I've heard of late, given Gordon's errors and Lewis's athleticism and the strides he reportedly made on D in one half season. And plus, even if that were true, Lewis has much more upside as a SS as a hitter/baserunner than Gordon, and Lewis's fallback is CF, Gordon's is 2B. Both those facts also make a huge difference. Gordon is a valuable prospect, but the idea that he's as valuable or nearly as valuable as Lewis is not convincing.

 

Interesting in general.. 5 guys on the list, 4 in the 90s... Gordon and Gonsalves doesn't surprise me (though I'm with Brock on Gordon, he's being punished more than he should at this point). Javier and Rooker do.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Interesting, but isn't BA known for prioritizing ceiling over performance? Or am I confusing them with BP again?

I'm not sure. Mike Beradino certainly seemed to prioritize ceiling over performance in his BA Twins list, but I don't know if that folds over into their top 100. Let's see what Mlb.com, Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs have to say.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not sure. Mike Beradino certainly seemed to prioritize ceiling over performance in his BA Twins list, but I don't know if that folds over into their top 100. Let's see what Mlb.com, Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs have to say.

There's also the halo of "top overall pick" in play with Lewis. He looked pretty damned good by most accounts in his debut but top overall picks tend to be given the benefit of the doubt for at least one season.

 

As I said, I think Lewis is the better prospect but I don't see how it's a huge gap right now. Gordon has chugged along through every level, improving slightly the entire way. The reason I say he's more likely to stick at short is because he played short in AA already and other than the errors, most people regard his defense as MLB shortstop calibre. Lewis still has a ton of question marks in that department, even though he looked good in his debut... but rookie ball is a looooooong way from Minnesota.

 

With that said, I tend to try to weight performance over ceiling a bit more than many prospect lists so it shouldn't be surprising I'm higher on Gordon than some.

 

I think people tend to overlook Gordon (unfairly) because he's not flashy at a single skill; he's "pretty good" across the board. And "pretty good" players who stick at shortstop turn into sneaky-valuable MLB players, the kind of guy who occasionally peaks with a 4-5 WAR season and you're unsure exactly how he got there.

[Blackjack]

 

And let the prospects go away in a Rule 5 draft or as minor league free agents...

You make a good point.  At what point do you decide to trade a few prospects because you know that a very low percent of them will actually help the club??  You would hope, since they're in your system, that you could do a better job of evaluating the prospects than everyone else. 

[howieramone2]

 

And let the prospects go away in a Rule 5 draft or as minor league free agents...

Bard and Burdi both missed a lot of time due to injuries. I'm all for letting those with substantial injury risk go. It's not like the minor league free agents to go were Trout or Kershaw. Losing decent prospects is the cost of improving.

[snap4birds]

 

I'm not sure the Cards have a better MI prospect than Lewis, Gordon, and Javier, and if TBR needs immediate help, even Gordon needs another full year to increase his stamina and polish some things.

 

If Tampa is looking for MI prospects, they won't be trading with the Cardinals  .  STL has pitching, OF, C prospects, but the infield is looking pretty barren.  Their 2 best MI prospects were just acquired from Oakland for Stephen Piscotty.  

[Mr. Brooks]

 

 

I think people tend to overlook Gordon (unfairly) because he's not flashy at a single skill; he's "pretty good" across the board. And "pretty good" players who stick at shortstop turn into sneaky-valuable MLB players, the kind of guy who occasionally peaks with a 4-5 WAR season and you're unsure exactly how he got there.

You are right, that guys like that who can stick at SS are very valuable. I think that is your answer right there. The fact he's falling on spec lists tells me that there are doubts in the industry about his ability to stick at SS.

[bunsen82]

There are only 2 ways I see us pulling off an Archer trade, and that is either with Gordon as the center piece with several other pieces (maybe Kepler) - Or essentially even up for Sano.  Sano makes the most sense for a couple reasons.  They have a big hole at 3rd now with Longoria traded.  Assuming they think he can stick there for another couple of seasons.  Assuming his health looks good and the investigation begins to wrap up (which could delay things) I see this as the most likely option.  I have a feeling Falvey and Levine are not as high on Sano as other organizations may be.  Sano would be worth the risk for Tampa.  

 

If so we have a bit of hole at 3rd but I am not so sure we still wouldn't have had a hole at 3rd.  The thing is if we went this way, it gives us money to spend at 3rd.  Would the twins want a stopgap, or would they be willing to throw decent coin at a moustakas or maybe a 2-3 year deal for frazier.  The 3rd base market is relatively dried up.  I am uncertain what moustakas would command, but 15-16 mil per a year for 4-5 years could do it.  It could possibly be even less than that.  It would likely take us out of the running for darvish.   But what would you rather have:

 

Darvish or other pitcher and Sano

Archer and Moustakas

 

I think there is a lot less risk and money at stake with Archer and Moustakas.   I have a feeling money will ultimately come out of the woodwork for Darvish and the other pitchers.  I don't think that will happen for Moustakas.  Take advantage of the depressed market just like we did with Addison Reed and call it an offseason. 

[gunnarthor]

 

There are only 2 ways I see us pulling off an Archer trade, and that is either with Gordon as the center piece with several other pieces (maybe Kepler) - Or essentially even up for Sano.  Sano makes the most sense for a couple reasons.  They have a big hole at 3rd now with Longoria traded.  Assuming they think he can stick there for another couple of seasons.  Assuming his health looks good and the investigation begins to wrap up (which could delay things) I see this as the most likely option.  I have a feeling Falvey and Levine are not as high on Sano as other organizations may be.  Sano would be worth the risk for Tampa.  

 

If so we have a bit of hole at 3rd but I am not so sure we still wouldn't have had a hole at 3rd.  The thing is if we went this way, it gives us money to spend at 3rd.  Would the twins want a stopgap, or would they be willing to throw decent coin at a moustakas or maybe a 2-3 year deal for frazier.  The 3rd base market is relatively dried up.  I am uncertain what moustakas would command, but 15-16 mil per a year for 4-5 years could do it.  It could possibly be even less than that.  It would likely take us out of the running for darvish.   But what would you rather have:

 

Darvish or other pitcher and Sano

Archer and Moustakas

 

I think there is a lot less risk and money at stake with Archer and Moustakas.   I have a feeling money will ultimately come out of the woodwork for Darvish and the other pitchers.  I don't think that will happen for Moustakas.  Take advantage of the depressed market just like we did with Addison Reed and call it an offseason. 

Darvish and Sano and it's not even close. Moutakas is a bad third baseman now. Archer has been worth 3 WAR the last two seasons combined. Sano is cheaper than all three guys mentioned. He has higher upside than Moustakas.

[bird]

 

You are right, that guys like that who can stick at SS are very valuable. I think that is your answer right there. The fact he's falling on spec lists tells me that there are doubts in the industry about his ability to stick at SS.

 

I think we should pay close attention to this. It could be that Gordon will fall down the list because more scouts believe he NEEDS to be moved to 2B. Are we hearing this? Sickles mentioned it in the context of a future Lewis/Gordon tandem with Lewis at SS. He remains high on Gordon (B+) and didn't say he couldn't stick at SS.

 

Other scouts may question his splits and see it as a larger problem, and still others might question his power potential I suppose.

 

All that said, I'm personally inclined to think his second half falloff was the product of fatigue, and that's correctable thing. I think he's probably going to be penalized primarily for this, a bit unfairly, and much less for concerns about those other things. The numbers fell off. But we can't ignore his first half.