Article: Not So Fast: Is Eddie Rosario Already Losing a Step?

[MN_ExPat]

 

Sprint speed is measuring speed in terms of feet per second in a player's fastest one-second window. From a Mike Petriello article:

 

"Of course, there are so many plays where a runner is merely jogging to first after having popped up, or trots home easily from third base when a teammate doubles, and those non-competitive plays don't exactly tell us anything about speed, so we had to find a way to exclude those plays and include only plays where maximum effort could be expected.

 

To account for that, we took all batted balls (excluding over-the-fence home runs), and looked at plays where a runner or hitter attempted to advance two or more bases (excluding runners who started on second base and the batted ball was an extra-base hit, as they can often jog home). Of the remaining runs, we'll sort them from slowest to fastest, and take the average of the fastest half. If that sounds complicated, it needs to be, but the results are extremely satisfying."

 

Let's just forget the numbers for a second. In terms of your own evaluation/eye test, would you say Eddie's defense and base running has gotten worse the past two seasons? I would, and given his age, that doesn't make a lot of sense to me. So that's why I threw out the theory that he may have struggled through some injuries we were never made aware of.

 

There were multiple times in the game recaps where I'd point out Rosie taking a really inefficient route to a ball. Could that be because he was missing that top gear and didn't properly account for it when he initially broke to the ball? I think it's possible.

Very excellent point Tom.  I'd also have to add though, that (at least to me) some parts of it seem to be mental.   Almost as if he's expending so much energy and thought on improving his offensive efficiency, that is has pulled some from his defense.   I don't think it's the be all end all, but I can't help but feel that it is playing perhaps a small part.

[markos]

 

Lol, no. 

 

The thing about any data is that it's based on past performance. These sprint speed numbers say what was measured. What comes next is anybody's best guess. The theory I offered up at the end of the article was that Rosario may have been hampered by minor injuries the past two seasons, enough to slow him down but not enough to keep him out of the lineup. If I was to make a prediction, I'd bet his 2018 sprint speed will go up. But again, that's just my guess.

For me, the only actionable info from this kind of analysis is in determining whether or not Rosario is a viable option to be a back-up CF in case Buxton is out of the lineup for a few days (a DL stint probably means Granite is brought up). When he initially came up, I thought that Rosario could easily cover that roll. While no one is going to match Buxton's defensive ability, I think the gap between Buxton and Rosario is now much larger than I initially thought. So I'm now leaning toward having the 4th OF position go to someone who is a legitimate CF option rather than purely a corner guy.

[Taildragger8791]

It's pretty normal for a typical player to lose a half-step every few years starting in their mid-20s, which they have to make up for through gains in technique, experience, and growth in other skills. Most NFL "skill" position players (WRs, RBs, DBs) rely on extreme athleticism early in their career, but those impressive 40 times and combine numbers degrade pretty much every year after that. That doesn't stop a 39 year old Terrance Newman from covering guys nearly half his age. Rosario doesn't worry me because he has the proifle to still become a very good player despite only having average speed in his prime (if he keeps developing).

[Riverbrian]

 

Great article. All of the disagreements appear to be of the fake news variety. Don't like the data, so the data must be wrong, with no counter evidence offered. Nice work, Tom.

 

Personally, Anything Tom writes... he has my full attention. He could write an article on the importance of radishes and I'll read it because Tom has earned my full respect.  It may not change my mind on radishes since I don't care for them and I am locked in.

 

There is a reason why I'm not sold on radishes and it's probably more complicated than "I simply don't like the way they taste". To break down the complicated answer would take some time and energy so it is much easier to say "I don't like the way they taste". 

 

Radishes and UZR are pretty much the same thing for me.     

 

 

 

 

[sftwinsfan]

Interesting article, with Rosario I'm probably a little more concerned with him cleaning up his route to the ball and his decision making in the OF.  His defense is still ok overall and not really a problem as long as he continues to produce offensively.  I found it most interesting that Grossman pretty much matched Kepler in sprint speed.  

 

I do wish they would stop putting Eddie in CF, I'm not a fan of him out there.  I'm not so sure RF would be the answer either.  He seems to get a little lost at times on fly balls and that could get ugly with the caroms off that wall.  Maybe he takes over 2b for Dozier in 2019? (i'm not serious) Seems like forever ago they were trying to turn him into a second baseman.  

[Linus]

Personally, Anything Tom writes... he has my full attention. He could write an article on the importance of radishes and I'll read it because Tom has earned my full respect. It may not change my mind on radishes since I don't care for them and I am locked in.

 

There is a reason why I'm not sold on radishes and it's probably more complicated than "I simply don't like the way they taste". To break down the complicated answer would take some time and energy so it is much easier to say "I don't like the way they taste".

 

Radishes and UZR are pretty much the same thing for me.

I've had the same problem ever since radishes said Josh Willingham was a better fielder than Torii Hunter.

[wagwan]

Great Headline and interesting data.

[wabene]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2017-roster.shtml

 

It's your perception

 

2016 appeared to be the year he floated alot

 

2017 2016 2015

Left 138 57 86

Center 10 37 4

Right 16 1 34

Maybe playing in 164 games in 2017 wore him out and slowed him down a bit

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Maybe playing in 164 games in 2017 wore him out and slowed him down a bit

the metric top speed, not average speed. Average would be weighed down heavily by the can of corn hit right at you

[jmlease1]

 

 

I do wish they would stop putting Eddie in CF, I'm not a fan of him out there.  I'm not so sure RF would be the answer either.  He seems to get a little lost at times on fly balls and that could get ugly with the caroms off that wall.  Maybe he takes over 2b for Dozier in 2019? (i'm not serious) Seems like forever ago they were trying to turn him into a second baseman.  

 

Well, he only got 10 outings there last season...and I'm trying to recall one that he got in the second half of the season and I'm struggling with it. Kepler got more run out there in CF than Eddie and I suspect Eddie's going to be an emergency option only going forward. (especially if Granite cracks the 25-man)

[Platoon]

I know RF is considered tougher at Target Field than left, but I sure would prefer that arm of his was in RF vs LF. Especially when Robbie G. Is in RF!

[Platoon]

Personally, Anything Tom writes... he has my full attention. He could write an article on the importance of radishes and I'll read it because Tom has earned my full respect.  It may not change my mind on radishes since I don't care for them and I am locked in.

 

There is a reason why I'm not sold on radishes and it's probably more complicated than "I simply don't like the way they taste". To break down the complicated answer would take some time and energy so it is much easier to say "I don't like the way they taste". 

 

Radishes and UZR are pretty much the same thing for me.     

So we are simply left to accept your eye test of the Radish as fact? It's well documented that personalities affect the perception of a Radishes worth. Old line FO types in the Radish league are getting very hard to find. It's a new era. Show us the facts.

[ashbury]

So we are simply left to accept your eye test of the Radish as fact? It's well documented that personalities affect the perception of a Radishes worth. Old line FO types in the Radish league are getting very hard to find. It's a new era. Show us the facts.

Obviously you're just another poster in the pocket of Big Turnip. (Or, maybe I'm just being arugulamentative.)

[Rosterman]

Very interesting comments about Fast Eddie. You almost wonder if THIS is the season you might've packaged him and a prospect for a mainline starter, shades of the day the Twins passed on trading Delmon Young after he had a dynamite season.

 

Stat wise, and playing time, Eddie looks better than Sano, another guy who might still become awesome overtime.

 

I always wonder what other teams do think or see in the players in the organization I admire. Seems we had a cold awakening about Dozier last year, who is now even more valuable except that he will be a free agent. We will never know how our hometown heroes are evaluated on the bigger stage.