Baseball America Top 10

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I think it had more to do with maximizing his strengths. He was fast and could cover a lot of ground, and had a lot to learn at SS. But if he's a great leader in the infield, has a drive to get better defensively, and the Twins have Buxton in CF, keep him at Short and you could have something special. 

 

If you see divergent reports on where he will settle defensively, are you reading old, pre-draft reports.

Everything I've seen on him since the draft believe that the advances he made post-draft indicate he can not only stick, but could be very good at SS.

I watched Lewis ALOT during the GCL (even some before the GCL season) and at the beginning of the season it was pretty rough I'm not going to lie, boneheaded plays, booted balls, errant throws, etc. He looked out of his element at times despite being extremely athletic, let's put it this way he made fellow 2017 draftee Ricardo de la Torre look like Ozzie Smith out there. Yet  By the time Royce got called up to Cedar Rapids, he looked like he could be a competent if not slightly above average SS.  His footwork improved to the point where it looked like a completely different player and his speed and athletic ability let him get to balls that most can not and help make up for mistakes.  His arm strength and accuracy are good enough to stay at SS, he just has a habit to "crow hop" his throws at times to 1B.  He's never going to be a Gold Glover but if he keeps his workup there he can be a productive defensive MLB SS for a long time.

 

BA mentions his work ethic and it should not be understated, the first to the field and the last to leave, working with Perlozzo on his footwork and infield drills at 8 am, as well as advanced leadership skills and maturity for such a young kid.

[clutterheart]

Berardino's comments on Gordon are pretty telling:

 

 

Based on conversations with people inside and outside the organization, I believe I have Gordon ranked precisely where he belongs. Doesn't mean he won't be a productive major leaguer.

 

Low ceiling but high floor.  

 

[jimmer]

 

 

As a side note, I have a feeling that everyone is missing on Garver, who could probably rack up 10+ WAR at catcher over the next 6 years just by being decent.  Developing major league catchers is hard, I'm not sure why Garver hasn't gotten more attention given how close he is, I have a feeling he'll end up being more valuable than at least 3 or 4 of the consensus top 10 guys.

Is 10+ WAR over 6 years supposed to be good? :-)

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

I will give Berardino credit. I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone else do a 2-hour chat on the top 10 list before!!

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1515589722

IMO we are lucky to have Berardino

[mikelink45]

 

You might be surprised how quickly the Wimmers and Levis return once the Twins start drafting in the mid-to-late 20s for several years in a row. Such is the rhythm of baseball...

You are right, Wimmers was 21, two ahead of Christian Yelich.  Not a great draft position. And Levi Michaels was drafter #30.  Not good choices, but the options were less at that point. 

[AZTwin]

 

I will give Berardino credit. I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone else do a 2-hour chat on the top 10 list before!!

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1515589722

 

 

By some of the responses, I'm not sure why he even took the time.  Seemed like half were just cheeky non-responses to legitimate questions that I would have liked to hear his thoughts on.

[old nurse]

 

Proximity to the majors clearly wasn't much of a factor.  This is more like a Top 10 list of highest ceiling guys. 

You and many others must have missed the first tine of the article that went with the list.

[Thrylos]

 

Note that Lewis is named best defensive INF in the system. Opinions on Lewis' defensive acumen and where he'll eventually settle in defensively seem to be all over the place.

 

As far as I am concerned, the only questionmark I have regarding Lewis' defense is his arm.  I will wait until the coming SP to find out.  Even as a LF if his arm does not cut it at SS, his value is still up there

[Seth Stohs]

 

I really liked this list.  It is truly about ceiling, no confusion.  My hope is that Lewis is so good he makes his MLB debut next year, even if just part of a year.  I have watched the excitement about Gordon since we drafted him and so far have not been as excited about the numbers and things I read.  He looks like a good pick, just not the potential star that Lewis is. 

 

Luckily we have moved on from the Wimmers and Levi years - I hope.  

 

The guy that might blow by the others on the list is Rooker.  I like what I have seen and read.  I think his bat will play in mlb quite soon.  

 

In this smokeless hot stove year its nice to have this to think about. 

 

Lewis/Gordon/Michael speaks to the difference between picking first overall and picking fourth overall and then picking 20th to 30th. All are first round picks, but they're very different. At 1 and two, you can get Buxton or Lewis (or A-Rod or Chipper or Delmon). Even dropping to 4-6, it's a lot different, and a guy taken in the 20s, you never know. 

 

But, again, the Gordon ranking may be about ceiling... but it doesn't factor in the floor. Gordon is going to be a solid MLB player (most likely)... he may not be a 10-time All Star, but he should be a good, starting player. 

[Thrylos]

I'd overall agree with Mike on this list.  As far as I am concerned, and Mike actually mentioned it,  Graterol is the only SP in the Twins' organization with number 1 potential.  Romero has durability issues and there are questions regarding how Gonsalves' high fastball will play in the majors.  I have seen enough of Javier to have him #1 in my 2017 list.  The guy will be an exceptional player, and his power tool projects.  Also agree with Rooker who actually might be ranked a bit too low and with Gordon.   

 

Nick Gordon's OPS never reached .750 in the minors. For comparison's purpose, at a younger age, Polanco had .903 OPS in E-town, .813 at Cedar Rapids, and .793 in Rochester as a 22 year old.  Gordon is also projected to be more of a second baseman (considerations in both arm and range here) than a shortstop, and apparently these days he is interesting more in his potential singing career than in baseball.  Might actually be ranked too high at this point.

 

Kirrilloff is ridiculously high, but this is not news, as far as my opinion of him goes   

 

Other than the Kirrilloff part, good list overall.   

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

there are still people saying he won't be a short stop. The fangraphs gut just said it in a chat. I don't think we know yet.

 

My guess is that there has never been a shortstop that could hit a bit whose ability to stay at shortstop defensively hasn't been questioned. 

[PseudoSABR]

 

You and many others must have missed the first tine of the article that went with the list.

This one? 

"For each organization, we identify the 10 prospects with the highest ceilings, with consideration given to the likelihood of reaching those ceilings."

 

I think you may have missed the second clause in that sentence; certainly, proximity to the majors is factor in the likelihood of reaching one's ceiling.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Is 10+ WAR over 6 years supposed to be good? :-)

 

I can't imagine many backup catchers get anywhere near that... I think it assumes he plays some other spots and at some points, he becomes the primary catcher...

[Tuba]

No one concerned that Gordon had a .600 OPS from July 1st onward? I think its fair to look at that and drop him a few places. 

[Thrylos]

 

My guess is that there has never been a shortstop that could hit a bit whose ability to stay at shortstop defensively hasn't been questioned. 

 

Derek Jeter.  Cal Ripken, Honus Wagner, Joe Cronin, Lou Boudreau, etc... Even Noarm (sic) Garciaparra...

 

never is a long time.

[Thrylos]

 

 

No one concerned that Gordon had a .600 OPS from July 1st onward? I think its fair to look at that and drop him a few places. 

 

Or .513 OPS against LHPs the whole season.

[jimmer]

 

I can't imagine many backup catchers get anywhere near that... I think it assumes he plays some other spots and at some points, he becomes the primary catcher...

Is he going to stay a backup?  I mean, is that the plan you think?

[Seth Stohs]

 

Derek Jeter.  Cal Ripken, Honus Wagner, Joe Cronin, Lou Boudreau, etc... Even Noarm (sic) Garciaparra...

 

never is a long time.

 

Yup, all of them had people questioning their ability to stick at shortstop... 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Is he going to stay a backup?  I mean, is that the plan you think?

 

I mean, the plan is for Castro to be the primary catcher the next two years... Garver could certainly eat into some of that playing time and play elsewhere, and then in two years, they'll figure out what's next.

[jimmer]

I mean, the plan is for Castro to be the primary catcher the next two years... Garver could certainly eat into some of that playing time and play elsewhere, and then in two years, they'll figure out what's next.

if Garver ends up deserving of starting, castro get traded after 2018.

[kab21]

 

No one concerned that Gordon had a .600 OPS from July 1st onward? I think its fair to look at that and drop him a few places. 

I have been claiming that Gordon was overrated (but still a good prospect) all summer whenever theoretical trades were mentioned or the 2018 Twins roster was being guessed at.

You aren't the only one.

[old nurse]

 

This one? 

"For each organization, we identify the 10 prospects with the highest ceilings, with consideration given to the likelihood of reaching those ceilings."

 

I think you may have missed the second clause in that sentence; certainly, proximity to the majors is factor in the likelihood of reaching one's ceiling.

Not at all.  If projects Gordon as a 2b with no power he would be below average for that position. As a shortstop he could be average to below average in fielding.   Gordon is where he should be on the list based on ceiling weighing more than proximity to the majors. If he were higher based on that judging system the minor league system is not in that good of shape.  The writer likes the high end potential of Graterol. If Romero and Gonsalves, who are as near to the majors as Gordon, are considered #3 or better starters, they are more valuable than an average to below average MI.  When ceiling counts more than proximity to the majors, me must really like Rooker.  If you value proximity to majors ias more valuable, then go to mlb.com.  In 15 years you can see who had the better guess.

 

Would anyone rank them that way now?

[Mike Sixel]

Do people really think those two are number three or better starters? That seems a bit high to me from what I read. But let's hope you're correct.

[old nurse]

 

 

Derek Jeter.  Cal Ripken, Honus Wagner, Joe Cronin, Lou Boudreau, etc... Even Noarm (sic) Garciaparra...

 

never is a long time.

Derailing for a second. Could you start a thread on what it was like watching Honus Wagner play  Everything I have read said he was an exceptional fielder. Clearly you must have seen something others missed.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

No one concerned that Gordon had a .600 OPS from July 1st onward? I think its fair to look at that and drop him a few places. 

 

Not yet. He did this in 2016 too, though his rapid start lasted much longer in 2017 before he cooled off. I suspect he's still working on the endurance aspect of being a full time player... I'm more concerned about his abilities against lefties. I still think he's got the potential to be above average in every category, but likely not elite in many if any at all.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

if Garver ends up deserving of starting, castro get traded after 2018.

 

Castro is on the books for one more year after 2018. I wouldn't be surprised if you simply see Garver dig into Castro's PT. There really isn't another catcher close to the majors for 2019. Catching is probably the biggest hole in our farm system right now.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

This one? 

"For each organization, we identify the 10 prospects with the highest ceilings, with consideration given to the likelihood of reaching those ceilings."

 

I think you may have missed the second clause in that sentence; certainly, proximity to the majors is factor in the likelihood of reaching one's ceiling.

I don't really buy the bolded when we are highly rating rookie league guys who aren't even top 100 prospects... It's all about ceiling, with likelihood not really being a factor.

[beckmt]

 

I don't really buy the bolded when we are highly rating rookie league guys who aren't even top 100 prospects... It's all about ceiling, with likelihood not really being a factor.

Likelihood is the second part of the equation.  

 

[beckmt]

I also feel that this list is why you see Gordon being listed in most trades for a starting pitcher.  Close to major league ready, with enough of a projection to be a good major leaguer.  

And probably why Tampa Bay if you want Archer will start with someone higher up the list and maybe 2 of the top 5. 

[beckmt]

I have hopes for Rooker to possibly be someone very good, and he may be here next year.