Warne: Deeper dive into Sano allegations

[John Bonnes]

I really enjoyed Brandon Warne's deeper dive into the Sano assault allegations over at Zone Coverage.  He gives some good background information on studies that show the likelihood of true/false accusations, the flawed logic of assuming an extortion attempt, and the difference between due process and preponderance of facts. Plus, its written in an almost sabrmetric style, calling out the probabilities without claiming inside information.

 

Please check it out, and if you comment on it here, please be considerate of others, and respectful of the tough decisions our overworked moderators must make.   

[Sam Morley]

Yes, that was a good article. Thanks for sharing it. 

 

I believe Ms. Bissen and I believe the account from Chattanooga. They speak for themselves. They are plausible, believable, and truly disgusting. 

 

As a fan of the Twins, and as a fan of Miguel Sano, it is devastating news. Like many Twins Daily readers, I followed Sano's career from his signing to the present with excitement and enthusiasm, more so than any other individual player maybe ever. There is a childish part of my character that wants very much to not believe what has been reported and to defend Sano. I think it is the same part of me that wants to believe that players play for the love of the game and not just for money. It amounts to: I don't want to believe it, because I don't want it to be true. And just as childish, if I am to believe it I then want there to be a way for it to be fixed, and I don't mean for humility and redemption- I mean for a time machine- something impossible.

 

Even if Sano were to humble himself, admit his wrong doing, and repent, the place for him to seek redemption is not on a baseball field. This is especially true considering that his wrongdoings were committed while in the act of being a baseball player and as a representative of his baseball organization, not to mention in relationship to other professionals associated with the game. 

 

Of course, whether or not Sano is repentant, he will almost certainly be in uniform for the Twins this summer. As fans, we will be forced to choose between the compromising of our values and the giving up of something we so much enjoy. Further, so far as we know, Sano is not repentant but, rather, defiant. For the Twins to continue to employ him would be to continue to subject members of the organization and associated organizations to his inappropriate and despicable behavior. Likely, the Twins will condemn his behavior with lip service while all but condoning it in action.

 

So long as Miguel Sano is employed by the Twins, I will not be watching them.

[Oldgoat_MN]

The account from Chattanooga was a concern.

If this has been happening for that long why hasn't the Twins organization addressed this with Sano already? Unless they were wearing blinders they had to know what was happening.

I agree with the comment by Duane Oyen that the Twins should use this as an opportunity to address the issue with all their players at all levels.

This kind of crap just has to stop. It makes all of us males look like baboons, or maybe some lower life form. Really sick of it.

[DocBauer]

You know, sometimes I wonder at the perspective of people. I find this "alleged" situation, (keeping it legal here), and others like it to be reprehensible to evil, (depending on the dull degree of assault). But when I read the "alleged" reports of Sano now, and in Chattanooga, and similar accounts over the years from other athletes and personalities, I wonder if what they do is seen as "heavy flirting" or "making a move" rather than the ugly physical confrontation it is.

 

If that's how they see it, more is the pity. And yes, this would be a great opportunity for the Twins to stand up and say/do something.

 

I don't believe I will boycott the Twins, as I did not boycott the Vikings during the AP fiasco. Hard to dislike my boyhood teams for the actions of one individual. But I can tell you it makes me uneasy and takes luster off the love.

[nytwinsfan]

Very good article.

[Brandon Warne]

Thanks for reading everyone, and to you John for sharing.

[dgwills]

Yeah.... Pretty sure he did it. Is it too late to trade him? This reminds me of the allegations against Kirby Puckett. Didn't he drag a lady into a bathroom once?

[adorduan]

 

I really enjoyed Brandon Warne's deeper dive into the Sano assault allegations over at Zone Coverage.  He gives some good background information on studies that show the likelihood of true/false accusations, the flawed logic of assuming an extortion attempt, and the difference between due process and preponderance of facts. Plus, its written in an almost sabrmetric style, calling out the probabilities without claiming inside information.

 

Please check it out, and if you comment on it here, please be considerate of others, and respectful of the tough decisions our overworked moderators must make.   

I don't give a rip about likelihoods, probabilities, etc. I just want the facts IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE.  

[theBOMisthebomb]

Warne did address one question that has been rattling around in my brain about this situation - why hasn't there been more talk about getting the police involved? It sounds as if it is out of the statute of limitations.

 

As far as dropping fandom of the Twins because of this.. this is quite an illogical leap from here to there. Unless you stay consistent and boycott all teams that have guys that do terrible things, including corporations and businesses etc.. you would be shopping at very few stores and have very limited entertainment options. Now, if the Twins somehow totally botch the response when that time comes there might be an argument for dropping them. Anyway, if this incident pushes you over the edge I understand that is your right to feel that way. I think you also have to look at response of MLB and the Twins in the upcoming months and go from there.

[Brandon Warne]

Too kind, thank you. The support for it has been overwhelming. 

[Sam Morley]

 

I don't believe I will boycott the Twins, as I did not boycott the Vikings during the AP fiasco. Hard to dislike my boyhood teams for the actions of one individual. But I can tell you it makes me uneasy and takes luster off the love.

 

I know what you mean. I don't know where I stand on whether or not I think that the league, team, or any organization is responsible for the conduct of its members. 

 

When a member of a league/team commits a reprehensible act (or has a history of reprehensible behavior) and the league/team takes no action, or insists it has no course of action to take, toward disallowing that member's continued participation in the league/on the team, I think that they are effectively allowing that member's behavior. I don't know if I would go as far as to say that makes the league/team responsible, but I would say it does make them complicit.

 

The leagues and teams are mostly, if not entirely motivated by greed. I believe they are indifferent toward "badness" so long as that badness isn't detrimental to their gain. In and of itself this is offensive to me, though I generally choose to accept it. Here, for me, is where the offense becomes unbearable: because their gain is tied directly to the demand for and consumption of their product, they are transferring the responsibility to the consumer- they are saying, to me the consumer, "well, if our behavior or the behavior of our members bothered you, you would stop consuming our product" or even worse "we know that our behavior or the behavior of our members bothers you, but you are so addicted to our product that we don't have to do anything about it." When the league/team chooses not to carry out appropriate consequences (in this case and in all others like it, immediate disallowal of participation) it forces its consumers to choose between their personal values and something that brings them enjoyment. We should be able to watch the Twins without having to be complicit in the reprehensible behavior of its members. 

 

As for the Vikes, the NFL, and AP (given that this is a baseball site, maybe I shouldn't even indulge this thought, but...) when I was a kid, I loved the Vikings, I loved football, I loved watching it and I loved playing it. But the league is a travesty. It is a total ethical and moral disaster. If there is a future in which our society is a history, the NFL will be regarded as a great embarrassment. There is a novel's worth of reasons to abstain, though it's ubiquitous tentacles make it next to impossible for a sports fan. I haven't watched a game in two years. I don't really miss it. There's other stuff to do.

 

***Moderators- if you want me to delete the bit about football, let me know. I will.

[Sam Morley]

 

As far as dropping fandom of the Twins because of this.. this is quite an illogical leap from here to there. 

It's not.

 

"Unless you stay consistent and boycott all teams that have guys that do terrible things, including corporations and businesses etc.. you would be shopping at very few stores and have very limited entertainment options."

 

Yes.

 

"Now, if the Twins somehow totally botch the response when that time comes there might be an argument for dropping them. Anyway, if this incident pushes you over the edge I understand that is your right to feel that way. I think you also have to look at response of MLB and the Twins in the upcoming months and go from there."

 

I await their response(s)

 

If, in protest, I end up not following the Twins for an indefinite duration, I will miss it a lot. I will always love the Twins.

 

[peterb18]

I enjoyed your article....welll written. But, you are having a hard time between being a journalist or an
advocate. As far as,”whose facts are you going to believe”, we are still in the stage of innuendos and
accusations. Give the Twins, MLB and the authorities time to sort out these allegations. Of course, maybe you
are not a journalist and just giving your opinion....then I’m off base on my analysis.

 

[Guest]

Thank you, Brandon, for this article.  You were on the mark with the due process matter. I found some of the other portions to be a bit less fair.  

 

First, while you are right that Bitsy's testimony would be the strongest evidence against Sano at a trial, the questions posted on twitter about the enormous size of Sano (and whether someone his size/strength would "struggle" for 10 minutes to get her into a bathroom) would definitely be asked on cross examination.  It is a fair question; people aren't wrong to question accusations, and should not be condemned for doing so.  There are a number of other portions of her claim that will undoubtedly be explored as well (e.g., why did no one hear screaming?; why she wasn't raped if that was his intent?; if she noticed, but didn't reciprocate his flirting, why would she join him solo in the bathroom area?)

 

Second, the article uses information to persuade readers of Sano's guilt that would not likely be admissible in court because of its unreliability.  These include the suggestion that Sano must be a sexual assaulter because he made advances on an usher while playing for the Lookouts, and the studies on the probabilities of false sexual assault claims.

 

Undoubtedly, some in our forum know the accuser well.  They are right for believing her and supporting her.  (They would also be right to acknowledge their relationship as potential bias to us readers.) For those of us that do not know her, we are under no obligation to believe one side or another before understanding facts, biases, motives, etc.  The Duke lacrosse team was once accused of similar behavior. 

 

 

 

 

[Vanimal46]

It's not.

 

"Unless you stay consistent and boycott all teams that have guys that do terrible things, including corporations and businesses etc.. you would be shopping at very few stores and have very limited entertainment options."

 

Yes.

 

"Now, if the Twins somehow totally botch the response when that time comes there might be an argument for dropping them. Anyway, if this incident pushes you over the edge I understand that is your right to feel that way. I think you also have to look at response of MLB and the Twins in the upcoming months and go from there."

 

I await their response(s)

 

If, in protest, I end up not following the Twins for an indefinite duration, I will miss it a lot. I will always love the Twins.

That's certainly your choice and anyone's choice to make. I'm waiting until the dust clears before I put Sano's severed head on a stake... And I'll continue cheering for the Twins TEAM, not just individual players.

 

Vikings fans have experience rooting for a team with bad character players on them. I cringed every single time Adrian Peterson did something good. And was relieved his tenure with the Vikes ended this year.

[USAFChief]

Thank you, Brandon, for this article.  You were on the mark with the due process matter. I found some of the other portions to be a bit less fair.  

 

First, while you are right that Bitsy's testimony would be the strongest evidence against Sano at a trial, the questions posted on twitter about the enormous size of Sano (and whether someone his size/strength would "struggle" for 10 minutes to get her into a bathroom) would definitely be asked on cross examination.  It is a fair question; people aren't wrong to question accusations, and should not be condemned for doing so.  There are a number of other portions of her claim that will undoubtedly be explored as well (e.g., why did no one hear screaming?; why she wasn't raped if that was his intent?; if she noticed, but didn't reciprocate his flirting, why would she join him solo in the bathroom area?)

 

Second, the article uses information to persuade readers of Sano's guilt that would not likely be admissible in court because of its unreliability.  These include the suggestion that Sano must be a sexual assaulter because he made advances on an usher while playing for the Lookouts, and the studies on the probabilities of false sexual assault claims.

 

Undoubtedly, some in our forum know the accuser well.  They are right for believing her and supporting her.  (They would also be right to acknowledge their relationship as potential bias to us readers.) For those of us that do not know her, we are under no obligation to believe one side or another before understanding facts, biases, motives, etc.  The Duke lacrosse team was once accused of similar behavior.

 

Nice post

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

We should be able to watch the Twins without having to be complicit in the reprehensible behavior of its members. 

 

"Reprehensible" is in the eye of the beholder.

 

There are other behaviors that some of us might find reprehensible (like bringing politics and religion in Sports, being racist, being homophobic, cheating, etc.)   And the Twins have had (and still have) plenty of that.

 

Where should the line being drawn?  To whose reprehension? 

That is a very slippery slop...

[Brandon Warne]

If the "10 minutes" thing trips you up, keep in mind that trauma can often leave doubt in victims' minds about how long something was.

 

 

[Brandon Warne]

 

I enjoyed your article....welll written. But, you are having a hard time between being a journalist or an
advocate. As far as,”whose facts are you going to believe”, we are still in the stage of innuendos and
accusations. Give the Twins, MLB and the authorities time to sort out these allegations. Of course, maybe you
are not a journalist and just giving your opinion....then I’m off base on my analysis.

 

I'm really not. I'm not an advocate for anything other than treating people the right way.

[Vanimal46]

If the "10 minutes" thing trips you up, keep in mind that trauma can often leave doubt in victims' minds about how long something was.

I wish she was more careful with her choice of words and timing in the Twitter statement. Since her account are the only details we know, accuracy matters.

[Brandon Warne]

 

I wish she was more careful with her choice of words and timing in the Twitter statement. Since her account are the only details we know, accuracy matters.

 

I mean if it was two minutes or 10 minutes, it doesn't really change what happened. 

[brvama]

Truth is in the details

[Vanimal46]

I mean if it was two minutes or 10 minutes, it doesn't really change what happened.

True. But that does change the type of charges and severity of the charges Sano could face. This was discussed at length in the other thread that I'm not going to repeat. They were findings from other posters and they're not my research or words.

 

There was no deadline Betsy faced writing out her account. I just wish it was more accurate, because that's going to open up doubt as to what else in the Twitter message was exaggerated or misremembered.

 

There are still other parts in her account that I've asked questions on, but don't expect any answer from outsiders like us. So like I said, accuracy matters since she's the only one talking.

[Brandon Warne]

I don't think he can face charges. False imprisonment and assault and battery have two-year statutes of limitation.

 

But with that said, Aroldis Chapman faced suspension without charges. This will be fascinating to monitor, but I'm so glad I don't have to make a punishment decision.

[Vanimal46]

Your article was very good Brandon. Why was the Chattanooga story not made public until now? That was a red flag back then... I wish that wasn't brushed aside just because he was an Uber prospect.

[Thrylos]

 

I don't think he can face charges. False imprisonment and assault and battery have two-year statutes of limitation.

 

But with that said, Aroldis Chapman faced suspension without charges. This will be fascinating to monitor, but I'm so glad I don't have to make a punishment decision.

 

What Sano allegedly did and what Chapman allegedly did (chocking his girlfriend and firing 8 rounds from a handgun) are slightly different in gravity, don't you agree?

[Brandon Warne]

 

What Sano allegedly did and what Chapman allegedly did (chocking his girlfriend and firing 8 rounds from a handgun) are slightly different in gravity, don't you agree?

 

Absolutely. They may fall under a similar umbrella of "assault" but I don't really know what else to compare it to. Maybe Reyes?

[Thrylos]

 

Absolutely. They may fall under a similar umbrella of "assault" but I don't really know what else to compare it to. Maybe Reyes?

 

It is complicated.  Both Reyes's and Champan's situations were domestic violence situations (vs. wife or long time girlfriend.)   Reyes was arrested for domestic abuse after his wife called the cops.  If anything, I'd compare the allegations against Sano with the allegations against Trump, as far as relationships between the accused and accuser go, because it was between practically unknowns.  And Sano, unlike Trump, is not accused of groping (sexual assault). but of grabbing someone by the arm and intending (according to the accuser) to drag her to the bathroom.

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

Chapman and Sano's situations are comparable in one way:

 

Both acts happened during a time when those particular kinds of acts had heightened public awareness.  Chapman's actions happened during a time when the focus was on domestic violence much like Sano's come during a time when sexual assault/inappropriate advances are in focus.

 

I think that makes the punishment (30 games) a starting point to consider.  Whether it has bearing once the league/team and the player's union sits down to discuss it I have no idea.  But it's something of a parallel.

[mikelink45]

This is truly sad for everyone involved and for the Twins as a part of the community.  I am not assessing guilt to anyone or taking any side, it is not for me to do that.  I can neither pile on or apologize for Sano.  He is an adult and if the allegations are correct then his career and life have been tainted in a way that he cannot comprehend at this moment.  For those who would turn on the woman involved I have no patience.  There are many crimes that are so personal in nature that we can never truly assess the true outcome.  It is more than just justice that is at stake.

 

This will not go away soon and it is not time for fans to take positions.  I want everyone involved, the police, the Twins, MLB to start a process and I want them to pursue the events to whatever is the proper conclusion.  

 

As a baseball fan and a person who believes everyone should be treated with dignity this makes me very sad.