Article: Golden Opportunity

[Cody Christie]

Defense has been one of the key aspects of Minnesota's turnaround in 2017. On their way to over 100 losses last season, there were plenty of defensive flaws. However, this year's version of the Twins has given more playing time to some younger, more athletic players while some veteran players have made strides in the right direction.

 

How do the Twins stack up this season? How many players could be candidates for Gold Glove Awards?Defensive metrics have come a long way over the last decade. With organizations and other private companies tracking every batted ball, the amount of information available to fans is at an all-time high.

 

The Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) has developed the SABR Defensive Index (SDI). According to SABR's website, the SDI "draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts." This rankings were through games played in the first half of the season.

 

Catcher: Jason Castro

SDI Ranking: 4.6 (2nd in the AL)

While Castro hasn't completely lived up to his billing, he has been good behind the plate. Only Martin Maldoado of the Angels ranks higher than Castro. There's a chance that Castro could end up being a finalist for the Gold Glove but he is in a tight race with Sandy Leon and Yan Gomes all being within 0.6 SDI points. Last season, Castro compiled a negative SDI score so he has made some very strong strides this season.

 

First Base: Joe Mauer

SDI Ranking: 3.0 (2nd in the AL)

Mauer has been known for his athletic ability since he was a multi-sport athlete in high school. When Mauer was forced to move out from behind the plate, many thought he would be able to develop into a very good defensive first baseman. This season might be the culmination of all of his hard work since switching positions. Only former Twin Danny Valencia ranks higher than Mauer. He has also accumulated almost double his SDI score from 2016.

 

Center Field: Byron Buxton

SDI Ranking: 12.7 (1st in the AL)

Anyone who has watched the Twins this season knows how good Buxton has been on the defensive side of the ball. With his recent offensive turnaround, it's hard not to get excited about his bright future. Of all of the players in the AL, only Mookie Betts has compiled a higher SDI score through the season's first half. Lorenzo Cain is the closest center fielder to Buxton but he has less than half the SDI score that Buxton has compiled. Buxton could start clearing a spot in his trophy room but there are other things that go into the voting process.

 

Right Field: Max Kepler

SDI Ranking: 3.9 (2nd in the AL)

In the early part of the season, I identified Kepler as one of a trio of players who was helping spur Minnesota's defensive turnaround. Kepler trails only Mookie Betts in the AL right field rankings but he is over 10 SDI points behind the AL leader. This will be a tough hill to climb in the second half but it doesn't take anything away from the strong season Kepler has put together in the outfield. In the minor leagues, he started fewer games in right field than in any other outfield position. If he continues to make strides at his new position, a Gold Glove could be in his future.

 

Minnesota hasn't had a Gold Glove winner since 2010. Could Mauer or Buxton end the streak? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[Seth Stohs]

 

Only former Twin Danny Valencia ranks higher than Mauer.

 

I'm not terribly sure this supports any sense that SDI is a good defensive metric... ha!

[yarnivek1972]

Unless the thinking of the voters for gold gloves has changed, Castro has no chance. They have historically been awarded to good offensive players who are decent on defense.

[mazeville]

I imagine his routine appearances on ESPN would make Buxton a legitimate Gold Glove candidate, if not the favorite.

 

I really want Mauer to win and think he deserves it. But we'll see. 

[iTwins]

I think Mauer has earned a Gold Glove with some exceptional defense this year - but I'm curious to know if the national perception of his defensive prowess follows what the fans see. Statistics seem to only play a part in these awards - national perception dictates the rest. 

 

In that regard, I think Buxton is a likely Gold Glove winner this year. It could go without saying (but I'll say it anyway) he's been outstanding in CF - but he also makes the highlight reels routinely, and is discussed nationally as an exemplary defensive player.  

[yarnivek1972]

FWIW, the 2016 AL Gold Glove first baseman was Mitch Moreland, who is now on a different team than last year. He also hasn't been nearly as good defensively as last year.

 

The 3 previous seasons it was Eric Hosmer. He is doing well defensively.

 

Those two are probably Mauer's competition.

 

Per fangraphs defensive rankings, it's not close.

[Monkeypaws]

What is the process for deciding who wins a gold glove?

 

Is it journalists who vote, players, or something else?

[Seth Stohs]

Gold Glove Selection Criteria, direct from Rawlings' web site:

 

https://www.rawlings.com/site-content/gold-glove-selection-criteria.html

 

 

The Managers and their coaches vote... I would say that the old saying about a player's offense factoring into the choice hasn't really been the case for several years. It used to be, but I don't think that's the case anymore. My guess is that a lot of the managers/coaches reach out to their analytics group now. 

[gunnarthor]

Thanks for posting. Certainly the OF defense has been fun to watch. I'm curious on how Polanco scores at short and Sano at third. I don't think either of them are GG guys but both have been much better than I expected.

 

Additionally, how does SDI like Rosario? 

[ThejacKmp]

I've been trolling for the Twins to sign Danny Valencia as the other half of 2018's 1B platoon. This only adds fuel to my fire. Mashes LH pitching, can play 3B and corner OF reasonably well and now is a GG talent at 1B :-)

[yarnivek1972]

I don't know what SDI measures, but Valencia has 9 errors at first base. Not saying errors are the be all stat of fielding. But that total is kinda hard to ignore.

[dgwills]

If Buxton doesn't win a gold glove I will stop believing the award has any merit. Oh wait, that already happened when Rafael Palmeiro won one in 1999. Sorry, but that is low hanging fruit.

[Doomtints]

 

I don't know what SDI measures, but Valencia has 9 errors at first base. Not saying errors are the be all stat of fielding. But that total is kinda hard to ignore.

 

SDI takes the available existing defensive systems and adds them together. That's it.

 

It is flawed because there is considerable overlap in what the systems measure, which means certain traits are counted multiple times and the systems were already weighing traits to start with.  

Edited August 23, 2017 by Doomtints

[Thrylos]

 

Unless the thinking of the voters for gold gloves has changed, Castro has no chance. They have historically been awarded to good offensive players who are decent on defense.

 

This is a misconception.  Look at Ozzie Smith and his career .666 OPS and 13 gold gloves and Visquel with career .688 OPS and 11 gold gloves.  Or Twins' own Vic Power, career .725 OPS at 1B and 7 gold gloves.  Or JT Snow at 1B for that matter.  Or Paul Blair, his career .684 OPS at CF with 8 gold gloves.  They have to be decent with the bat otherwise they would be reserves. 

 

Yes, some players tend to be favored if they are better hitters than others, but not all gold gloves are undeserved.   Part of the problem is that there have been no great consensus objective defensive measurement (unlike hitting) which makes defining "the best defenders"  very difficult and subjective.

[jimmer]

SDI accounts for 25% of the voting

[jimmer]

 

FWIW, the 2016 AL Gold Glove first baseman was Mitch Moreland, who is now on a different team than last year. He also hasn't been nearly as good defensively as last year.

The 3 previous seasons it was Eric Hosmer. He is doing well defensively.

Those two are probably Mauer's competition.

Per fangraphs defensive rankings, it's not close.

Moreland leads the AL 1B in DRS and is 4th in UZR. Not sure a bad year.  Mauer is 3rd in DRS and 1st in UZR (but also has 100 less innings played).  Hosmer has never deserved a gold glove yet somehow...

[Oldgoat_MN]

Jeter won 5 Gold Gloves. No statistic anywhere can explain that.

Greg Maddux won 18 Gold Gloves. In 1993 he committed 7 errors. He won the Gold Glove that year.

Brad Radke played MLB for 12 years. In those 12 years he committed 7 errors.

 

I'm not suggesting that Brad Radke was a better fielder than Maddux (or Jeter).

Still, something's amiss.

[ashbury]

SDI takes the available existing defensive systems and adds them together. That's it.

 

It is flawed because there is considerable overlap in what the systems measure, which means certain traits are counted multiple times and the systems were already weighing traits to start with.  

It's not a flaw. It reflects an emerging consensus on what's important, with the other factors favored by one analyst or another affecting the margins.

[Doomtints]

 

It's not a flaw. It reflects an emerging consensus on what's important, with the other factors favored by one analyst or another affecting the margins.

 

It's a mathematical error.

 

Indexing only works when things are counted once, such as in the various stock indexes. Would anyone trust the Dow Jones Industrials if it counted Apple and 3M four times each but Intel once? Do you see how Intel's value would be utterly irrelevant to the index in this scenario unless its value was at an extreme?

 

The only "marginal" values that would register in this scenario would have to be extreme, and if the values are extreme they are certainly not marginal....

Edited August 24, 2017 by Doomtints

[ashbury]

It's a mathematical error.

It's not, and I am done repeating myself.

[Doomtints]

 

I am done repeating myself.

 

Thumbs up.