Future at 1B, Dozier, Carew, Rose and a bunch more to consider

[DocBauer]

There has been a great deal of debate and conversation over the past several months/year concerning Mauer, Dozier, possible trade of Dozier, DH, the future at 1B, the Twins infield depth, etc. I have stated in various threads before that I believe a real solution for Dozier, and 1B with the Twins, as well as an "assist" for DH comes down to Dozier as the Twins future 1B. I think it's a good time to really look at this possibility.

 

Follow me here, please.

 

Reality:

 

1] Mauer is an outstanding defensive 1B. Mauer is not an outstanding offensive 1B. But there are a lot of ways to build a roster...power here, power there, sometimes at or from unexpected places. It's the culmination of a roster/lineup that matters at the end of the day, and not a standard rote of position by position. (More on that later). Mauer is also, probably, gone after 2018.

 

2] Despite being prone to some hot and cold spells/streaks, Dozier is a quality baseball player with quality production and tangible numbers. He is also a FA after 2018 and a trade candidate. However, last of season we also saw the market for him wasn't what we hoped for or expected. I don't think it's a reach to say, despite still being a good and productive player, that his market hasn't increased.

 

3] The Twins have some nice infield talent and depth. Polanco and Gordon provide some really nice potential. Escobar is a really, really nice and productive utility piece. Adrianza was a really nice pick up. Vielma offers some solid ability and upside, though maybe not ready yet. Goodrum offers some nice utility ability, potentially. And there are quite a few options with high potential in the lower minors, but they are a few years away.

 

4] The Twins have a few future 1B candidates, but really, the best ones are, again, in the low minors and a few years away.

 

Offensively, I will not say Dozier at 1B is the next Hrbek, or Morneau or whoever. But his past 4 season's mark him as a .250 hitter with a .330 ish OB, high .700 OPS who can be counted on for 30+ doubles and 20+ HR with speed on the basepaths. A true slugger? No. Productive and versatile? Yes.

 

There is a conception that 1B are tall, strapping fellows with Big power. Quick research shows that to be a standard. However, brief research, reflection and perception also has to ask the question: "where else would some of these big, powerful and productive 1B play otherwise?" Seriously, how many 1B can you name that would be quality 3B, infielders or OF? So is 1B reserved for a big man, a long man, a big target out of necessity and preference? Or more so because it's the best place for them to belong? (Other than DH).

 

Just looking at some of the best 1B in Twins history, Killebrew stood 5' 11". Mientkiewicz, a great defensive 1B, was 6'. Yes, Hrbek, Morneau and Mauer were all 6' 4" or more.

 

I looked at a couple elite defensive 1B I grew up with in the 80's and early 90's. Keith Hernandez was 6', as was Don Mattingly. Mark Grace and Wally Joyner were a bit taller at 6' 2". Taller, but not towering, hulking specimens.

 

I'm old enough to remember Carew playing 1B with the Angels and Pete Rose with the Phillies. A pair of Hall of Fame players! (I know, I know about Rose, but that's a debate for another day). These guys were NOT sluggers, but were quality hitters, producers and defensive 1B who transitioned to 1B after careers in the infield, and stood 6' and 5' 11" respectively.

 

I can appreciate a large, long target at 1B. But again, how many of those big targets could play another position? And how many were/are truly good defensively? Dozier is a good athlete with good hands, a decent arm, and vast experience playing the right side of the infield. What is more important, defensively speaking, at 1B? Being a big, long target? Or having a good glove, range, and the ability to chase pop ups?

 

I would argue Dozier could make as well of a transition to 1B as Mauer did, and his bat plays there. This allows a Polanco/Gordon keystones combo with Escobar, Adrianza, Vielma and Goodrum in reserve until others arrive.

 

As to DH? This alignment allows you to sign/trade for/promote a bat. OR, with a talented and versatile lineup, allows you to rotate whoever you want to in that spot on a daily basis. For instance, what if what we saw from Granite, in his brief stay, was real? Couldn't you rotate him in the OF and at DH along with other players getting half days off?

 

Overall, I would argue that Dozier's best value to the team would be as a re-sign with a transition to 1B.

[Doomtints]

Dozier fits the mold of a first baseman. But what if the Twins keep his bat at 2nd and find a more typical 1B bat too? Even better!

 

Joe does not look to me like he is great defensively at first. UZR likes him this year, for some reason, but I'm not sure how UZR could even properly rate a first baseman. Other systems don't see anything outstanding about Mauer's defense.

 

In any case, defense at 1B is an afterthought. This is why big bats end up at the position. 

[Twodogs]

But is Polanco a better hitting option over Mauer

[DocBauer]

My thought is Dozier at 1B with Gordon and Polanco in some variation of SS and 2B.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

Dozier fits the mold of a first baseman. But what if the Twins keep his bat at 2nd and find a more typical 1B bat too? Even better!

 

Joe does not look to me like he is great defensively at first. UZR likes him this year, for some reason, but I'm not sure how UZR could even properly rate a first baseman. Other systems don't see anything outstanding about Mauer's defense.

 

In any case, defense at 1B is an afterthought. This is why big bats end up at the position. 

 

 

I think you need to take those doomtints off and rewatch the first 118 games of the season.  Not only has Mauer been exceptional at first base on the balls hit to his area but he has also saved 10, 15 and maybe even more errors from the players on the left side of the infield by how good he is at scooping the short hops. He really should win a gold glove but won't because he isn't putting up the offensive production of other 1st basemen.

[mikelink45]

I see Dozier peaking soon, maybe he did last year.  He is not the 1B player of the future and he is not going to garner a big trade.  If anything the trade scenario told us what the rest of the league sees in him. For a couple years anything works, but I see Rooker there in 3 years, I do not see Vielma in the majors and Gordon, Polanco, and Dozier will have to work things out in the middle of the infield. 

[Rosterman]

Interesting to look at Dozier? Does he have one more season at second? Moving him to 1B would be a possibility, as well as potential DH duties. Right now, come 2019, who do we have at first base, and who at DH (we can assume DH will be the home for Sano someday, possibly sooner ratehr than later). Then it bring up who plays 2B and who is at SS. We have placesetters in Polanco and Escobar. Gordon is on the horizon. Lewis will be fast-tracked, but at what position. We also have Wander Javier and Jermaine Palacios. 

 

But then, what is the cost for Dozier. 

 

We had the potential to keep Trevor Plouffe around as a 1B/3B/Dh/OF guy. But that proved too expensive, and did we see him with the Twins 2020 and beyond. That's the question, do we see Dozier as a Twin in 2020 and beyond, filling the DH role with his .240 bat, 20-25 homers, and the possibility of playing in the field.

 

More challenging is the bigger elephant in the room. What will be Joe Mauer's continued role in the organization. We can't put him at DH, he doesn't give us power at first base, we don't have room for him in the outfield. Has he already run his course? Would he catch on with some other team rather than go into retirement (for that, do we need to care alot).

 

And then, who plays 3B if Sano blows up and becomes too big.

 

Is the prospect stream there to fill all these roles?

 

So, again, do we keep Dozier? What would be reasonable. 3-years and $30 million with a 4th year option past his 2018 book? Do we want to go that direction?

[Linus]

Extending Dozier would be idiotic. We gotten value during this contract let somebody else overpay for his decline years. Deal him as soon as you can get a decent pitcher in return.

[USAFChief]

i don't see any chance Dozier is a future Twins first baseman.

[DocBauer]

Isn't Dozier only 30? He's a quality athlete. He provides 60XBH pretty much every year with some speed. If he is, indeed, declining in any way athleticly, wouldn't his move to 1B make sense?

 

I'm just saying, is this really a bad option? Shouldn't his bat and overall athletic ability allow him to make this transition while making room for even younger players at 2B and AS? Maybe I'm crazy...bht it makes sense to me. Especially since there is no other realistic 1B option in the minors close.

[Mr. Brooks]

Isn't Dozier only 30? He's a quality athlete. He provides 60XBH pretty much every year with some speed. If he is, indeed, declining in any way athleticly, wouldn't his move to 1B make sense?

 

I'm just saying, is this really a bad option? Shouldn't his bat and overall athletic ability allow him to make this transition while making room for even younger players at 2B and AS? Maybe I'm crazy...bht it makes sense to me. Especially since there is no other realistic 1B option in the minors close.

You say "only 30", but to me, the decline can come any moment once a ball player is past 30.

And if Dozier is a first baseman, he has almost zero room for decline. Right now he's a .760 - .810 range OPS hitter, which already barely plays at 1B.

If he declines even a little bit, he's a poor option for that position.

 

Does that make it a "bad" option? I don't know, but its far from the best option, IMO.

[stringer bell]

I love to talk about Dozier. He came up as a light-hitting middle infielder and now is a slugging second sacker. Can he transition again? Maybe. But actually of more importance is something that I've turned over in my head for a few years--is Brian Dozier more like Dan Uggla or Jeff Kent. Both Kent and Uggla made big noise because of the pop they generated from second base. Uggla got to about 30 and fell off the cliff, Kent got 45 of his 55 career oWAR after 30.

 

If Dozier sustains his offense, heck yes he could move to first and help the team. If he falls off the cliff in the next two years, it is foolish to consider him beyond the last season of his contract. I said on another thread that I don't consider Arianza or Escobar to be more than career backups/utility infielders, but that they are good ones. I don't think either one of those guys will necessitate a move for Dozier.

[jorgenswest]

I hope organizationally they are not thinking about 1B in 2019. They just need to make sure they have enough good hitters. If they have enough good bats, first base will take care of itself.

 

At some point it will be Sano but not next year and no need to plan longer out at this point.

[Rosterman]

 

I hope organizationally they are not thinking about 1B in 2019. They just need to make sure they have enough good hitters. If they have enough good bats, first base will take care of itself.

At some point it will be Sano but not next year and no need to plan longer out at this point.

Interesting. When will Sano transition to 1B. Will he become David Ortiz and basically transition to DH (which is a pain, cause you still want him to be a position player when playing in National League aprks.) Of course, he could become another Oswaldo Arcia or Delmon Young (hopefully not). We do have Lewis Diaz in the wings. Zander Wiel could be a backup fix. Rooker MIGHT become a first base candidate.

 

Of course, nothing happens until Mauer decides what to do with his career.

[kab21]

I don't really see the logic of extending Dozier so he can play 1B. His bat plays well at 1B if he hits as well as '16/17 but it is much more valuable at 2B and his defense is certainly fine at 2B. The main problem is that this extension won't be cheap nor short (any guesses - maybe 16-18M/yr and 4 years). I am not really interested in a 2nd older, declining and expensive 1B. If Dozier is extended then it should be with the intent that 2B is his position. If you don't think he can play 2B long term then don't resign him.

Miguel Sano is the future 1B. I don't think he will last more than a couple more seasons at 3B and he already gets 3B days off frequently. And I don't think he should be moved to DH immediately.

 

The other question is whether or not Mauer will be back or not. I could see him signing some 6-10 M/yr short term contracts because he loves playing and loves the Twins (yes, seriously). He isn't great statistically as a 1B but he is certainly alright. I would prefer this to signing Dozier to a big-gish extension with the intent of playing him at 1B. I expect a Dozier extension to be one of the most 'popular' threads on the forum this offseason and next summer. But it should be an extension with the intent to play him at 2B.

 

One note - I don't think the lack of trade interest in Dozier this winter or at the deadline is any indication of what the league thinks of him or his ability. It has to do with the contenders that would trade having reasonably decent options already and not willing to pay a fairly high price for a very good 2B. Really bad timing to have a very good 2B to trade. I am guessing that most offseasons in the past decade would have had a few desperate trade partners and they could have landed a substantial trade package.

[ThejacKmp]

I don't think dozier is going to be cheap and I'm if the mindset that 1b is a place where it's easy to save money. Whether it's a post contract Mauer or other pieces from baseballs scrap heap, I like using 1b as a place to put young guys and low cost free agents.

 

I also think we're ignoring the key question of whether dozier wants to play 1b. He will receive offers based on him playing second -- lots of guys don't want to play a new position. Or if he is fine with it, he may be more interested in a transition to 3b or a corner outfield spot.

 

Seems unlikely to me. The twins should really be looking to move dozier this offseason, especially if he ends strong and gets to the 30-35 hr range. There wasn't much of a 2b market this offseason but this offseason there may be more teams looking. he's less valuable than a year ago but the twins could still get some nice prospects if someone looks around and wants a 1 year solution