Why we need to trade Josh Willingham this offseason.

[gil4]

Much of the thought on this has to do with a 33 year old having a career year, you don't get the opportunity to cash in on that very often

 

The problem is the teams know that he is a 33 year old coming off a career year and they factor that into how they value him. Jim Bowden, Omar Minaya, and Bill Smith aren't GMs anymore - the league has gotten smarter.

[Shane Wahl]

No, no, and no. The guy is going to hit 40 homers this season. You don't just trade that away if you are this organization. Willingham and Plouffe provide big-time RH power, just the very thing this team has traditionally lacked. There are plenty of cases of mid-30s players hitting 30+ homers or 25+ homers, and Willingham is now on the incline, NOT the decline in terms of power and everything else. It's just DUMB to trade him. The Twins have him for 2 more years at 14 million bucks. Morneau will make 14 million bucks in one year. HE is the guy that you trade for a SP. Not a prospect, but an actual legitimate MLB SP. That's the trade to be made. Add a FA signing and the Twins have a whole different outlook next year.

 

Again: trading Willingham is stupid.

[Highabove]

No, no, and no. The guy is going to hit 40 homers this season. You don't just trade that away if you are this organization. Willingham and Plouffe provide big-time RH power, just the very thing this team has traditionally lacked. There are plenty of cases of mid-30s players hitting 30+ homers or 25+ homers, and Willingham is now on the incline, NOT the decline in terms of power and everything else. It's just DUMB to trade him. The Twins have him for 2 more years at 14 million bucks. Morneau will make 14 million bucks in one year. HE is the guy that you trade for a SP. Not a prospect, but an actual legitimate MLB SP. That's the trade to be made. Add a FA signing and the Twins have a whole different outlook next year.

 

Again: trading Willingham is stupid.

 

A lot of Power Hitters remain productive, well into their 30's.

 

Harmon Killebrew hit 118 Homeruns from the time he was 33-35 years old.

 

Players did not work out as much in those days.

 

Jim Thome hit 111 Home runs between the ages of 35-37

 

Gary Gaetti hit a career high 35 Home runs at age 36.

[twinstalker]

Trade him to Baltimore for Dylan Bundy!

 

Maybe they'll throw in Machado, too. In fact, maybe they'll just close the doors to the franchise after next year.

[twinstalker]

While I agree with dealing Willingham, there are a few points to consider as an argument.

 

First is that the time has passed. The Twins are the kings are missing opportunities, and they may have done so already. Teams will be "fixing" their problems in the offseason without giving up young talent.

 

Second, perhaps Willingham is not worth all that much to teams in the hunt. I don't doubt that Terry Ryan might fail to recognize a good offer, but I also can see where the best he was offered was someone like Tony Cingrani, who, while a nice prospect, really isn't as sure a thing as they'd need to make sense. Two Tony Cingranis (say, Cingrani and Corcino) probably would ultimately provide a good pitcher, but from Cincy's viewpoint, that may have been far too much. Certainly it would be in the offseason. You're not going to get a Bundy or Machado or similar for Willingham, so you might be hoping for a team with excess MLB pitching that needs a hitter, and there just doesn't seem to be teams out there with excess anything (except Arizona with a lot of close pitcher but no need for an outfielder, much less a bad-fielding one).

 

Third, without Willingham the Twins have gaping holes in two areas: power and right-handed sticks. That makes JW even more valuable to the Twins. Only Plouffe sort of fills both, not that one other player is enough, and he's no sure thing to continue to do so. The rest of the lineup, from Doumit to Mauer to Morneau to Parmelee to Arcia is decidedly left-handed (Doumit is pretty meh against lhp). They will have to go outside the organization to replace JW, which is going to cost one way or another.

 

I agree that trading JW is preferable, but the Twins really needed to do it before the deadline. At this point they are much better served to wait until next year's deadline, but the Minnesota jinx almost guarantees he'll be hurt then or unproductive before then. In either case (hurt/unproductive) it behooves Minnesota to then hold onto him.

 

Ryan blew it by not shopping this guy and taking advantage of his best year (at age 33!). It's this type of GMing that plagues the franchise. He's given a gift in the middle of a mess, and he just lets the mess swallow it up. Fans will come to see a winner, not names, and especially not names most hadn't heard of until months ago. Whether it's failing to seek a Willingham trade or allowing Liriano to pitch after his 15 strikeout game, it's clear Ryan doesn't have a grasp for taking advantage of situations or more generally how to build a winner. Maybe he can stumble into another team that has four of the best thirty players in baseball and bumble crap around them to compete for the Central division title annually, but I think that's unlikely and really shouldn't be the goal.

[Cap'n Piranha]

While I agree with dealing Willingham, there are a few points to consider as an argument.

 

First is that the time has passed. The Twins are the kings are missing opportunities, and they may have done so already. Teams will be "fixing" their problems in the offseason without giving up young talent.

 

Second, perhaps Willingham is not worth all that much to teams in the hunt. I don't doubt that Terry Ryan might fail to recognize a good offer, but I also can see where the best he was offered was someone like Tony Cingrani, who, while a nice prospect, really isn't as sure a thing as they'd need to make sense. Two Tony Cingranis (say, Cingrani and Corcino) probably would ultimately provide a good pitcher, but from Cincy's viewpoint, that may have been far too much. Certainly it would be in the offseason. You're not going to get a Bundy or Machado or similar for Willingham, so you might be hoping for a team with excess MLB pitching that needs a hitter, and there just doesn't seem to be teams out there with excess anything (except Arizona with a lot of close pitcher but no need for an outfielder, much less a bad-fielding one).

 

Third, without Willingham the Twins have gaping holes in two areas: power and right-handed sticks. That makes JW even more valuable to the Twins. Only Plouffe sort of fills both, not that one other player is enough, and he's no sure thing to continue to do so. The rest of the lineup, from Doumit to Mauer to Morneau to Parmelee to Arcia is decidedly left-handed (Doumit is pretty meh against lhp). They will have to go outside the organization to replace JW, which is going to cost one way or another.

 

I agree that trading JW is preferable, but the Twins really needed to do it before the deadline. At this point they are much better served to wait until next year's deadline, but the Minnesota jinx almost guarantees he'll be hurt then or unproductive before then. In either case (hurt/unproductive) it behooves Minnesota to then hold onto him.

 

Ryan blew it by not shopping this guy and taking advantage of his best year (at age 33!). It's this type of GMing that plagues the franchise. He's given a gift in the middle of a mess, and he just lets the mess swallow it up. Fans will come to see a winner, not names, and especially not names most hadn't heard of until months ago. Whether it's failing to seek a Willingham trade or allowing Liriano to pitch after his 15 strikeout game, it's clear Ryan doesn't have a grasp for taking advantage of situations or more generally how to build a winner. Maybe he can stumble into another team that has four of the best thirty players in baseball and bumble crap around them to compete for the Central division title annually, but I think that's unlikely and really shouldn't be the goal.

 

You kind of contradict yourself here by theorizing that the offer maybe wasn't enough, but then bashing Ryan for not taking it. How do we know what Terry Ryan was offered for The Hammer? What if it was a slightly better package than what we got for Frankie? Would you have supported trading him for a couple of replacement-type players with chances to be starters? Unless someone has hard, indisputable proof that TR passed up quality pitching in July, we all need to stop savaging him. After all, it's not like TR can just choose whoever he wants in a deal, the other team has to say yes too.

 

I personally think it's absolutely reasonable that Terry Ryan's plan is to sign a couple free agent pitchers, and fill out his rotation with some combo of Diamond, Gibson, Hendriks, Deduno, and others. With even a league-average rotation, a line-up of Span, Revere, Mauer, Willingham, Morneau, Plouffe, Doumit, Dozier/Florimon, Carroll/Casilla is good enough to compete in the Central. If they're not competitive in July next year, you can flip Willingham, Span, and Morneau for quite a bit at the deadline, and start the youth movement.

[Cody Christie]

If the offer is right, Willingham should be on a new team. It seems like the Twins are a couple of years away from contending again and they will need top level starting pitchers to have any chance of doing this. It has been great to see what Willingham has been able to do this season on the offensive side of the ball and it looks like a great signing by the front office. If the right deal isn't out there, he should stay in Minnesota but there has to be someone that wants him... Right???....

[TheLeviathan]

The guy is going to hit 40 homers this season.

 

Right and normally he struggles to get 500 ABs in a season because of injury. We have a glut of young OF that will be up and ready before his contract expires. If he's not part of the long-term plan, you should make his departure part of the long-term plan.

[diehardtwinsfan]

the question regarding trading the hammer has more to do with what the team's intent is with next year. If they want to be competitive (and plan to add the pitching necessary to do so), then you don't trade Josh... Period. If the plan is to punt on 2013 for 2014, then by all means, they should have traded him at the deadline or this offseason.

 

My guess is that the team is going to attempt to be competitve (even if it isn't the best idea) and will try to add some parts via free agency and potentially flip one of Span/Revere/Morneau for some pitching help.

[Forever34]

One last thought. Why should Twins fans go to games when they trade away their best player? To the more casual fan, unlike the forum members here, that could affect revenue. People want to see good players.

 

That's an excellent point. He has become a fan favorite quickly and to most trading him would seem like the Pohlads being cheap and throwing in the towel for us being any good in the near future (especially if we get prospects in return).

 

When I remember the all the comments on the Twins home page about how they were idoits for taking Buxton instead of reaching for a starting pitching prospects as if it was realistic for him to help this season I'm reminded that most fans only care about immediate returns.

[Forever34]

Thank you for contributing to my alcoholism.

 

You're welcome I guess.

[jimbo92107]

Of course you trade Willingham. You also trade Morneau and Span.

 

The Twins are a penny-pinching franchise, with the occasional exception for a Joe Mauer. As such, periodically they must unload their talented veterans and make room for cheap, talented players rising through the minors. Same as the Rays.

 

Friends, it's time to unload. Willingham knows he's a hired gun. Morneau and Span both are coming back from concussion problems. Meanwhile, you've got Parmelee, Arcia, Hicks and Benson ready to replace the veterans. Will they be as good? Nobody knows, it's the Great Mystery. Are they cheap? That much we know for certain. Yes, they're all major league minimum.

 

The other thing we know for certain is that this veteran group will not win a World Series. To develop the pitching for a run, the Twins need three years minimum, plus the exact opposite of the bad luck they've had with Gibson and Wimmers. They need some guys to emerge like Hendriks, Bromberg or Vasquez, guys that are good enough to displace marginal starters like Blackburn, De Vries and Duensing.

 

The Minnesota Twins are not a winning team. That means things have to change. Because they are a cheap franchise, change must come primarily from the minor leagues. Trade your veterans for prospects, cheer the new kids, and don't buy a jersey with a name on it.

[Monkeypaws]

I think at 7 million per this guy is a steal.

 

Mid-30's are still good years; the difference for most folks physically 33 to 36 is minimal.

 

When you start edging near 40 is when the body starts to change, but again, that varies from one person to the next.

 

To me, the Twins for once got lucky and got a free agent who value exceeds his salary; these are guys you keep.

 

They need to find the Willingham and Doumit of pitchers next off-season.

[kab21]

I think at 7 million per this guy is a steal.

 

Mid-30's are still good years; the difference for most folks physically 33 to 36 is minimal.

 

When you start edging near 40 is when the body starts to change, but again, that varies from one person to the next.

 

To me, the Twins for once got lucky and got a free agent who value exceeds his salary; these are guys you keep.

 

They need to find the Willingham and Doumit of pitchers next off-season.

 

Actually the difference in baseball between 33 and 36 is usually retirement. Very few players play until 40.

 

More importantly though is that it's unlikely that the Twins are competitive next year and possibly the year after. Trading him for a some players/prospects that can help for an extended run when the now pretty good farm system starts feeding the Twins makes sense.

[THE DFC]

Of course you trade Willingham. You also trade Morneau and Span.

 

The Twins are a penny-pinching franchise, with the occasional exception for a Joe Mauer. As such, periodically they must unload their talented veterans and make room for cheap, talented players rising through the minors. Same as the Rays.

 

Friends, it's time to unload. Willingham knows he's a hired gun. Morneau and Span both are coming back from concussion problems. Meanwhile, you've got Parmelee, Arcia, Hicks and Benson ready to replace the veterans. Will they be as good? Nobody knows, it's the Great Mystery. Are they cheap? That much we know for certain. Yes, they're all major league minimum.

 

The other thing we know for certain is that this veteran group will not win a World Series. To develop the pitching for a run, the Twins need three years minimum, plus the exact opposite of the bad luck they've had with Gibson and Wimmers. They need some guys to emerge like Hendriks, Bromberg or Vasquez, guys that are good enough to displace marginal starters like Blackburn, De Vries and Duensing.

 

The Minnesota Twins are not a winning team. That means things have to change. Because they are a cheap franchise, change must come primarily from the minor leagues. Trade your veterans for prospects, cheer the new kids, and don't buy a jersey with a name on it.

 

Yep. To build on this, I'm not sure why people are so short-sighted as to say, "he's a steal at his current value, so we should keep him (Willingham)."

 

Listen, everyone was upset during the years of first-round exits. We all said we want to contend for a title and not settle for above-average. Holding onto guys like Willingham and Span while they're at max value and the Twins have no shot at competing for anything is exactly how you create perennially above-average teams that are pretenders and not contenders.

 

It's really simple--you're a "buyer" when you've got a chance to contend, have excess wealth and you're willing to mortgage the short-term for the long-term. You're a "seller" when you have no chance to contend but have short-term pieces of value that can be swapped for potentially long-term pieces of value.

 

Considering where this team is in the standings and how major of an overhaul this rotation needs for us to get into contention (a 2-3 year project, if you live in reality), who do you think we are--buyers or sellers?

 

In 2015, when the Twins are rolling out, say, Mauer, Plouffe, Michael, Rosario, Parmelee, Revere, Hicks, Arcia, Sano, and we still have Buxton, Kepler, Harrison, Goodrum, Polanco, etc. and the next two years of high draft picks in the system, that's when I want to see us evolve into buyers.

 

In the meantime, we should move Willingham, Span and anyone other vets that are relatively expensive for rotation prospects that can come up with the wave of young position players listed above.

[Guest USAFChief]

the question regarding trading the hammer has more to do with what the team's intent is with next year. If they want to be competitive (and plan to add the pitching necessary to do so), then you don't trade Josh... Period. If the plan is to punt on 2013 for 2014, then by all means, they should have traded him at the deadline or this offseason.

 

My guess is that the team is going to attempt to be competitve (even if it isn't the best idea) and will try to add some parts via free agency and potentially flip one of Span/Revere/Morneau for some pitching help.

 

Concur.

 

I would add that going for it in 2013 is risky. But no more so than trading everything of value and aiming for 2015 or 2016. Neither strategy is guaranteed to succeed, and you might end up punting 2013 and 2014 only to be as bad or worse in the following years.

[ashbury]

Concur.

 

Make me.

[ashbury]

Actually the difference in baseball between 33 and 36 is usually retirement. Very few players play until 40.

 

My snap response is "but, but, but, Thome! Chipper!" However, baseball-reference.com provides the interesting "Similarity Score" feature down near the bottom of Willingham's page, and it's instructive to look over the list of players whose careers Josh's resembles. Not a lot of guys like him play past the age he's already at, actually.

[Dilligaf69]

The thing is I don't think you can get a frontline starter for Hammer...I think it would take more and most teams just don't give up pitching. So I think you hold onto him unless someone does offer you a potential #1

[Dilligaf69]

Of course you trade Willingham. You also trade Morneau and Span.

 

The Twins are a penny-pinching franchise, with the occasional exception for a Joe Mauer. As such, periodically they must unload their talented veterans and make room for cheap, talented players rising through the minors. Same as the Rays.

 

Friends, it's time to unload. Willingham knows he's a hired gun. Morneau and Span both are coming back from concussion problems. Meanwhile, you've got Parmelee, Arcia, Hicks and Benson ready to replace the veterans. Will they be as good? Nobody knows, it's the Great Mystery. Are they cheap? That much we know for certain. Yes, they're all major league minimum.

 

The other thing we know for certain is that this veteran group will not win a World Series. To develop the pitching for a run, the Twins need three years minimum, plus the exact opposite of the bad luck they've had with Gibson and Wimmers. They need some guys to emerge like Hendriks, Bromberg or Vasquez, guys that are good enough to displace marginal starters like Blackburn, De Vries and Duensing.

 

The Minnesota Twins are not a winning team. That means things have to change. Because they are a cheap franchise, change must come primarily from the minor leagues. Trade your veterans for prospects, cheer the new kids, and don't buy a jersey with a name on it.

 

 

While I won't doscount your entire post cuz I think therein lies some truth but to call the Twins "penny pinching and cheap" is false. How many "cheap" teams have payrolls near or over $100 mil??? the answer is NONE! Just because they don't go out and spend $120 mil on slightly above avg starters like Hamels or there payroll isn't on par with Boston or NY doesn't mean they are cheap. Now you can argue all day that they spend their money in the wrong places or on the wrong players but please don't label them as cheap..it's simply not true!

[Dilligaf69]

the question regarding trading the hammer has more to do with what the team's intent is with next year. If they want to be competitive (and plan to add the pitching necessary to do so), then you don't trade Josh... Period. If the plan is to punt on 2013 for 2014, then by all means, they should have traded him at the deadline or this offseason.

 

My guess is that the team is going to attempt to be competitve (even if it isn't the best idea) and will try to add some parts via free agency and potentially flip one of Span/Revere/Morneau for some pitching help.

 

Concur.

 

I would add that going for it in 2013 is risky. But no more so than trading everything of value and aiming for 2015 or 2016. Neither strategy is guaranteed to succeed, and you might end up punting 2013 and 2014 only to be as bad or worse in the following years.

 

 

You may become the Royals or Pirates(2012 notwithstanding)...anyone want that??

[bird]

The consensus is trade him, but for the right return. But what is the right return? Let's assume Ryan insists on trying to put a "competitive" team on the field in 2012. Let's also assume he wrongly believes he's got a competitive outfield sans Willingham. Assume further he's fishing for either a starting pitcher or a SS of higher quality than what he has in Dozier, Casilla, Carroll, Escobar, Florimon and Nishioka (sorry, I just puked). Give me a name to use as a comp, at both positions for Willingham, Morneau, and Span.

 

Example: Morneau gets you Cliff Lee or Dustin Pedroia (kidding here)

[TheLeviathan]

To me they should have been shopping him to San Francisco for something like Panik and Chase Blackburn. Or Baltimore for Bridwell, Tillman, and something else. Or maybe a package starting with Eovaldi from Los Angeles.

 

The reality is, Willingham is occupying a spot that one of the OFs in our farm is not far from taking. (Particularly because a couple of our AA guys are showing more readiness than expected) He's also 33 and highly unlikely to repeat his season. Relying on one month's bounceback from Morneau or Span's friendly contract to be our main trade chips screams disappointing result. We may have already lost out on our best value for Willy, but the longer we wait the worse it will get.

[twinsnorth49]

To me they should have been shopping him to San Francisco for something like Panik and Chase Blackburn. Or Baltimore for Bridwell, Tillman, and something else. Or maybe a package starting with Eovaldi from Los Angeles.

 

The reality is, Willingham is occupying a spot that one of the OFs in our farm is not far from taking. (Particularly because a couple of our AA guys are showing more readiness than expected) He's also 33 and highly unlikely to repeat his season. Relying on one month's bounceback from Morneau or Span's friendly contract to be our main trade chips screams disappointing result. We may have already lost out on our best value for Willy, but the longer we wait the worse it will get.

 

100% agree, people can argue whether it makes sense to trade Hammer from a competitive standpoint in 2013, you cannot however argue the above is not true.

h

The big question seems to be if, if , if, the Twins magically acquire some front line pitching this winter, trading Hammer will sacrifice the benefits of that and make us less competitive at the plate. What people seem to be missing is that he is, at this stage, likely our best opportunity to acquire that much needed pitching but we need to act from a position of strength and before the window closes.

[Coach J]

We live in a different era of baseball now. Teams will not give up quality pitching for a aging outfielder who is a defensive liability. Teams value pitching and defense much more than they did 10 years ago. I think the Twins are caught in a position where they don't know when they can compete. They don't want to commit to rebuilding for 2014-2015. They seem like they want to try to add a few pieces here and there and try to compete in the next year. But when their record is 10-12 games below 500 in the first few months, they are finding that teams will not mortage their future for some rental players even if they are competing that year. It just appears that the Twins are 1 or 2 steps behind in every movie they make.

[kab21]

You may become the Royals or Pirates(2012 notwithstanding)...anyone want that??

 

This is a untrue criticism to rebuilding. The Pirates and Royals sucked for years due to absolutely awful decisions in the draft and at pretty much every level of baseball. these two teams finally got it in the last 3-4 years when they spent megabucks in the draft and internationally. Now they both have great farm systems but that wasn't the case for the decades that they sucked. if you want a better comparison to the Twins then it would be the Cubs or the Mets. Expensive losers but luckily the Twins aren't saddled with any long term awful contracts. If you pay attention to baseball you'll notice that both of these clubs are slashing payroll and rebuilding their farm systems.

 

Imo the do anything to get to 80 wins plan could set this franchise back years in the rebuilding process.

[Ultima Ratio]

Kab, the pirates were a farm team for the past 10-15 years. Every good and decent player was traded for prospects whom were traded if they too became good/decent and in the final years of arbitration. Just to name a few. Freddy Garcia, Niger Morgan, Jason Bay, Aramis Ramirez, Brian Giles, Jason Kendell (in his prime) and many more. The reason is because the GM in those years -- and still now -- was told to dramatically lower payroll. Low payroll makes it hard to keep good players and so goes the tale of a crappy baseball team for the past 20 years. GO BUCS!

[kab21]

Kab, the pirates were a farm team for the past 10-15 years. Every good and decent player was traded for prospects whom were traded if they too became good/decent and in the final years of arbitration. Just to name a few. Freddy Garcia, Niger Morgan, Jason Bay, Aramis Ramirez, Brian Giles, Jason Kendell (in his prime) and many more. The reason is because the GM in those years -- and still now -- was told to dramatically lower payroll. Low payroll makes it hard to keep good players and so goes the tale of a crappy baseball team for the past 20 years. GO BUCS!

 

You don't really understand why the Pirates were awful for so long. They had one of the lowest MLB payrolls and they were also really cheap in the draft bypassing the BPA for signability several times. Combine that with making awful decisions at the MLB level and you are left with an org that eventually has to trade the few good players that they produced. They were simply a complete failure as an organization that never had a rebuilding plan until recently when they started spending megabucks in the draft.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is a untrue criticism to rebuilding. The Pirates and Royals sucked for years due to absolutely awful decisions in the draft and at pretty much every level of baseball. these two teams finally got it in the last 3-4 years when they spent megabucks in the draft and internationally. Now they both have great farm systems but that wasn't the case for the decades that they sucked. if you want a better comparison to the Twins then it would be the Cubs or the Mets. Expensive losers but luckily the Twins aren't saddled with any long term awful contracts. If you pay attention to baseball you'll notice that both of these clubs are slashing payroll and rebuilding their farm systems.

 

Imo the do anything to get to 80 wins plan could set this franchise back years in the rebuilding process.

 

I understand and mostly agree with your point but the Royals aren't getting any better. At this point, they should be getting better but they aren't. The Pirates have made a bunch of savvy moves on every level in recent years. They haven't been in "dump everything" mode in quite some time and are now seeing dividends. The Royals, on the other hand... Could they be good next season? Sure. Is it likely? No.

 

It's easy to dump players for prospects. But in the case of a team like the Royals, they need to start acting like a real Major League franchise and they have yet to do it. It's hard to build an entire team on the backs of a bunch of prospects (who fail and/or get injured in the minors) and I don't fault the Twins for not laying down and playing possum. They have a nucleus and they have money. I'm all for dishing off some of that nucleus for MiLB players but let's not ignore this team and its upside. Given this division, there's no reason why they can't compete in 2013 or 2014, looking at their farm and the upside they have in the trade market. The two top teams in the division are on the decline and the two other teams are not showing as much promise as they once hoped.

[Nick Nelson]

Imo the do anything to get to 80 wins plan could set this franchise back years in the rebuilding process.

 

First of all, I haven't seen anyone saying the Twins should "do anything" to get back to immediate contention next year. But I'd certainly argue that the team should look for young players that can help right away and put some of their freed up payroll into pitchers that can make an impact. The alternative is to have the Pohlads pocket the $20 million rather than spending it in free agency, and trading away all veteran assets for prospects. Maybe a nice theory until you look at the job this organization has done of evaluating young talent in recent years.

 

The Twins aren't in a position like the Pirates and Royals because they have no tradable superstars. They have guys like Span, Willingham and Morneau that they can probably move for B-prospects. That's not a great recipe for rebuilding, especially when the kind of lesser prospects you tend to target are almost always some variation of Pedro Hernandez and Eduardo Escobar.