Twins DFA Melotakis

[adorduan]

 

I don't disagree - which is why I don't understand the move - but these guys have way more data on Melotakis than any of us.

 

Hence, it's a results-based decision. Gnash your teeth all you want but if you're wrong and Melo fails to be an MLB contributor at any point in the future, at least be intellectually honest enough to admit that you didn't know what the hell you were talking about.

 

Because, fer chrissakes, we've been here so. many. times. in the past. I see many of the same people who wailed over the Arcia decision (I was quite down on that move myself) pulling the identical performance in this thread.

Speaking of Arcia, I wonder when (or if) he'll get another shot.  He's mashing in AAA, a 1.128 OPS.

[adorduan]

 

Haha. FWIW, Arcia is going ballistic in AAA Reno this year. 17 homers, 1.133 OPS.

Haha, while I was looking up the numbers you beat me to it.

[Guest]

In two years at AA, Melotakis never pitched two days in a row and usually pitched only one inning. In other words, when used carefully in AA, he was pretty good. It's hard to see that translating to MLB success, where almost all rookies are thrown to the fire, unless they are expected to be stars. A rookie in the Twins bullpen must be capable of pitching multiple innings and going two days in a row. My guess is they tried to ramp him up in AAA, but saw it wasn't likely to happen, then cut him perhaps quicker than they normally might have because they felt the need to add someone else.

[kab21]

 

I don't disagree - which is why I don't understand the move - but these guys have way more data on Melotakis than any of us.

 

Hence, it's a results-based decision. Gnash your teeth all you want but if you're wrong and Melo fails to be an MLB contributor at any point in the future, at least be intellectually honest enough to admit that you didn't know what the hell you were talking about.

 

Because, fer chrissakes, we've been here so. many. times. in the past. I see many of the same people who wailed over the Arcia decision (I was quite down on that move myself) pulling the identical performance in this thread.

It looks like we can blast away at Falvey and Levine if we can only be judgmental about results based decisions.

 

What did they see that said the merry go round of mediocrity (the cycling of MiLB pitchers) had any chance of being successful? Some have a decent chance like boshers or Busenitz (based on stuff and stats) but many threw sub 90 in relief (some of those even RH) with mediocre MiLB  K rates. 

 

I will use Liam Hendriks as a counterpoint to your 'be critical if they succeed elsewhere' belief. I don't think that is a just way to judge a FO. At the time Liam Hendriks was let go by the Twins they had a full bullpen (some young arms taking up spots) and didn't have room to try out a failed starter. He toiled for another year as a starter elsewhere and then became really good. The reality was that there are only so many roster spots. No fault to the FO.

 

This year is different. There are many openings in the bullpen and the FO has promoted many guaranteed mediocre arms to fill them. It isn't that those arms failed, it is that they really had no chance of succeeding. You might think the argument is about Melotakis but it is actually about these promotions. And that argument is actually results based that agrees with every bit of MiLB and scouting data we have.

[dougd]

I saw Melo pitch for the Lookouts about a year ago in Knoxville against the Cubs farm team. It was a hot pretty evening, with competition throughout the evening between the radar gun reading and the temperature reading. It was Jorge's first AA game, and he started out fine, but then got hit hard starting in the 5th. A spectacular play by Vielma kept the game close, and there were plenty of relievers for both teams. I was excited to see Melo enter the game, but was somewhat disappointed. He was 92-94 if I remember right, but so was everyone else for both teams. Prospects and non-prospects. The only reliever in the 80s was Joe Nathan. Not that I am capable of evaluating his potential, and was surprised by the DFA, but there were people wondering about his mph last year.

[old nurse]

 

Who has said that the numbers "mean" anything?

 

All anyone is "suggesting" is to look at the facts- Melotakis is a LH pitcher with a history of high K rates and who is young enough to possibly being able to restore his velocity might be just as deserving (or more deserving) of a shot at a 25-man spot as any of those who have come through the roster despite a long string of failure on their resumes.

 

Scouts don't like Melotakis' stiff arm action. I concur and I don't think that there's any doubt that Melo is an iffy prospect and the TJ thing obviously still is overhanging it all... but given the facts as we know them- and then alternatives that have been thrown into the fire for the big club thus far, isn't it reasonable for Twins fans to want to flesh this thing out more definitively before just abruptly pulling the plug?

If they don't mean something then why would anyone be complaining that they dfa'd someone with a high K rate in AA? 

Others not deserving? Rosario not deserving? What other LH? Wilk could go several innings, something Melotakis did not do. Turley started and had better numbers. Boshers has done all right. What other LH pitching?

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Haha. FWIW, Arcia is going ballistic in AAA Reno this year. 17 homers, 1.133 OPS.

Yeah, I know he's mashing... in the PCL. And how many times did he clear waivers to end up there?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It looks like we can blast away at Falvey and Levine if we can only be judgmental about results based decisions.

In my opinion, yes. Falvey has a good track record with pitching and we have no basis to judge long-term decisions and trends... yet.

 

Can we disagree with the Melotakis move? Sure. I disagree with it. But some people are acting as if this front office doesn't know what it's doing and we simply can't make that call at this point.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah, I know he's mashing... in the PCL. And how many times did he clear waivers to end up there?

Actually, technically, Arcia never did "clear waivers" at least not outright waivers. He was traded by us, claimed on waivers twice, then released after the season and signed to a minor league deal.

 

Not that I am losing any sleep over him at the moment, but I hope he gets another chance. He hasn't been this productive since 2014.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Actually, technically, Arcia never did "clear waivers" at least not outright waivers. He was traded by us, claimed on waivers twice, then released after the season and signed to a minor league deal.

Not that I am losing any sleep over him at the moment, but I hope he gets another chance. He hasn't been this productive since 2014.

I hope he gets another chance, too, but it was pretty obvious what the league thought of Arcia last season. People took a few flyers on him, sure, but he couldn't garner more than a minor league deal when all was said and done.

 

It's kinda humorous that he ended up with an NL team that plays in a cavern, though. Good for Oswaldo that he's performing well but it's hard to see him playing in San Diego long term.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I hope he gets another chance, too, but it was pretty obvious what the league thought of Arcia last season. People took a few flyers on him, sure, but he couldn't garner more than a minor league deal when all was said and done.

 

It's kinda humorous that he ended up with an NL team that plays in a cavern, though. Good for Oswaldo that he's performing well but it's hard to see him playing in San Diego long term.

Actually Arcia is in the Diamondbacks organization this season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Actually Arcia is in the Diamondbacks organization this season.

Jeez, I can't even keep track of the guy anymore. So he was in the Padres org at the end of last season, right? And they let him go?

[TNTwinsFan]

Shouldn't there have been a transaction on Melo by now? Passed through? Traded? Something?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Jeez, I can't even keep track of the guy anymore. So he was in the Padres org at the end of last season, right? And they let him go?

.

 

Correct.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Shouldn't there have been a transaction on Melo by now? Passed through? Traded? Something?

DFA can take up to a week, so we may not know for a few more days. If we don't hear anything by Tuesday, that probably means a trade is off the table and he will be on waivers.

[big dog]

 

I will use Liam Hendriks as a counterpoint to your 'be critical if they succeed elsewhere' belief. I don't think that is a just way to judge a FO. At the time Liam Hendriks was let go by the Twins they had a full bullpen (some young arms taking up spots) and didn't have room to try out a failed starter. He toiled for another year as a starter elsewhere and then became really good. The reality was that there are only so many roster spots. No fault to the FO.

 

 

And realistically, he had one really good season with Toronto, and now has had two seasons of being around league average with Oakland.  A useful piece, but not someone to regret IMO.

 

I do wonder how, if we could give Jason Wheeler a short ML tryout we couldn't do the same with Melo, but I defer to people who might have actually followed his career and seen him in person (including others on TD).

[drjim]

 

And realistically, he had one really good season with Toronto, and now has had two seasons of being around league average with Oakland.  A useful piece, but not someone to regret IMO.

 

I do wonder how, if we could give Jason Wheeler a short ML tryout we couldn't do the same with Melo, but I defer to people who might have actually followed his career and seen him in person (including others on TD).

 

Hendriks success strikes me as on the very high end of good outcomes for Melotakis. Like most marginal prospects, this is much ado about very little.

 

I understand the weakness of the current pen, but if he is down to 90-91 and not able to go more than an inning at a time or pitch back to back days, he wasn't coming to majors this season, at least not with much effectiveness.

[Otto von Ballpark]

For those that say Melotakis "couldn't" go back to back days, I am not sure that is true. We never tried it, he was untested in that regard. Maybe he was unwilling, but that would probably be unusual for a guy looking to get to MLB soon. Maybe we deemed it not possible, but that would be another team evaluation that could be mistaken.

[whydidnt]

My concern with this DFA isn't that I think that Melotakis is the next coming of Joe Nathan, or even that I think he's going to be a Major league Contributor (we all realize that 90% of the guys in the minors never make it, right?). It's that it continues a trend of the Twins dropping younger players with potentially higher upside in favor of retreads that have proven over and over that they can't contribute. I just don't get it. And no, I'm not losing sleep, and gnashing my teeth as so many seem to imply when one questions the might Falvey-Levine combo. But I think it's worthwhile to wonder why, and to question the logic of such moves. 

 

Perhaps the inability to pitch back to back days is a fatal flaw that can't be addressed. I doubt any major league team will roster a guy at the back of the pen that can't do this, but he could get picked up by a team that's willing to watch him in the minors for a bit to see if he can further recover. For whatever reason the current regime deemed him worthy of a 40 man spot this off season. He hasn't seemed to perform any worse so far this year, so it's just a bit of a head scratcher. 

[drjim]

 

My concern with this DFA isn't that I think that Melotakis is the next coming of Joe Nathan, or even that I think he's going to be a Major league Contributor (we all realize that 90% of the guys in the minors never make it, right?). It's that it continues a trend of the Twins dropping younger players with potentially higher upside in favor of retreads that have proven over and over that they can't contribute. I just don't get it. And no, I'm not losing sleep, and gnashing my teeth as so many seem to imply when one questions the might Falvey-Levine combo. But I think it's worthwhile to wonder why, and to question the logic of such moves. 

 

Perhaps the inability to pitch back to back days is a fatal flaw that can't be addressed. I doubt any major league team will roster a guy at the back of the pen that can't do this, but he could get picked up by a team that's willing to watch him in the minors for a bit to see if he can further recover. For whatever reason the current regime deemed him worthy of a 40 man spot this off season. He hasn't seemed to perform any worse so far this year, so it's just a bit of a head scratcher. 

 

He's not *that* young. There is obviously some evaluation that suggested he wasn't going to pitch in the bigs this year or had a health issue. Otherwise he would have been up by now, at least for a brief time. Pretty hard to keep a reliever on the 40 man for multiple years if they aren't in the majors or unless they are going to be elite.

 

I imagine the current front office wanted to keep him in the offseason to get a good look at him this year, and have now made their evaluation. If he's down 2-3 mph, as has been suggested, he is significantly worse.

[drjim]

 

For those that say Melotakis "couldn't" go back to back days, I am not sure that is true. We never tried it, he was untested in that regard. Maybe he was unwilling, but that would probably be unusual for a guy looking to get to MLB soon. Maybe we deemed it not possible, but that would be another team evaluation that could be mistaken.

 

This seems like a stretch, that the franchise would not use him back to back days or for more than an inning unless there was a physical issue. The velocity drop is really strong evidence.

[Otto von Ballpark]

This seems like a stretch, that the franchise would not use him back to back days or for more than an inning unless there was a physical issue. The velocity drop is really strong evidence.

At the same time, I think you might be drawing too many conclusions from what little we know. How long has the velocity drop been going on? All I've seen is that he was sitting 89-90 at Rochester recently, but the conservative usage dates to last year when we know he was throwing harder. Could he still be effective with that velocity? Whatever physical issue was there, it wasn't apparently enough to affect his effectiveness or put him on the DL even once, so can we point to it yet as really strong evidence he deserved a DFA before Breslow, to make room for Gee? Without even a real trial at AAA?

 

I'm not going to lose too much sleep over potentially losing Melotakis yet, but it is a peculiar situation that is worth discussing and monitoring. Not clear yet whether his issues were a deal-breaker worthy of DFA, or if they simply made him the low man on the totem pole when the FO perceived a roster crunch. The promotion to AAA just before the DFA hints at the latter.

[USAFChief]

If, indeed, he wasn't ever used on back to back days, I do not believe that's accidental.

 

That's part of the standard required of relievers, and he would have been expected to demonstrate that ability.

[Otto von Ballpark]

No doubt that relievers should be able to throw consecutive days, but part of that is an opportunity thing.

 

Did Melotakis tell them he couldn't go the day after coming into a game? Did they try warming him up but he had nothing, to the point where it wasn't even worth using him? Was it worth DL'ing him at that point? Did this happen every time, or was it just occasional?

 

Looking at the game logs, I notice he did pitch with only 1 day rest a few times this season, and seemed to do just fine. 3 times he even pitched 2 innings on 1 day rest. He also pitched 2 shutout innings in 2 of his last 3 appearances at AA before his brief promotion to AAA.

 

I'm not saying there wasn't a physical issue, but from the evidence we have right now, it's hard to judge the extent of that issue and whether it could have been the primary cause of this DFA.

[drjim]

At the same time, I think you might be drawing too many conclusions from what little we know. How long has the velocity drop been going on? All I've seen is that he was sitting 89-90 at Rochester recently, but the conservative usage dates to last year when we know he was throwing harder. Could he still be effective with that velocity? Whatever physical issue was there, it wasn't apparently enough to affect his effectiveness or put him on the DL even once, so can we point to it yet as really strong evidence he deserved a DFA before Breslow, to make room for Gee? Without even a real trial at AAA?

 

I'm not going to lose too much sleep over potentially losing Melotakis yet, but it is a peculiar situation that is worth discussing and monitoring. Not clear yet whether his issues were a deal-breaker worthy of DFA, or if they simply made him the low man on the totem pole when the FO perceived a roster crunch. The promotion to AAA just before the DFA hints at the latter.

Certainly worth monitoring. If he is claimed and healthy and effective in the majors this year the move would be pretty inexplicable.

[LaBombo]

Breslow can be used on consecutive days, but not on consecutive batters, unless the opposition is considerate enough to not stagger lefties in the batting order. That's assuming Molitor wants to avoid Breslow-vs.-any-righty matchups, which essentially turn opposing RH batters into Vladimir Guerrero in his prime. I'm not sure being effective against a single batter on back-to-back days is a significant advantage over potentially being good against four LH/RH batters on non-consecutive days as Melotakis could be.

 

If the New Kids in the front office have determined that Melotakis has no future in professional baseball, then it's time to move on. But if there's even a small chance that he can be effective with his post-surgery velocity loss, then I'm in the camp that would like to see him get that chance, even at the expense of Craig Breslow pitching effectively against three lefty batters per week until the waiver trade deadline or the end of the season.

 

[old nurse]

 

Speaking of Arcia, I wonder when (or if) he'll get another shot.  He's mashing in AAA, a 1.128 OPS.

did he learn how to catch and throw?

 

FWIW 9 players on the AA team have an OPS greater than 850

Arcia also has a .392 babip

 

[whydidnt]

 

Sorry  to join this thread late, but has this been resolved one way or the other?  The last update I had  was that we still have a few days within which we could restore him to the 40 man roster and lose somebody else. This simply may be a way to have 41 people effectively  under control while they evaluate whether Dillon Gee can still pitch (he was pretty good at one time) or whether to put Breslow on the DL or even lose either Breslow or Belisle. I suspect that may be the plan, but I am willing to stand corrected  if Melotakis has already been lost for good.

I think he does have to clear waivers before they can add him back to the 40 man roster, so they don't really have the advantage of a 41 man roster. 

[old nurse]

 

No doubt that relievers should be able to throw consecutive days, but part of that is an opportunity thing.

Did Melotakis tell them he couldn't go the day after coming into a game? Did they try warming him up but he had nothing, to the point where it wasn't even worth using him? Was it worth DL'ing him at that point? Did this happen every time, or was it just occasional?

Looking at the game logs, I notice he did pitch with only 1 day rest a few times this season, and seemed to do just fine. 3 times he even pitched 2 innings on 1 day rest. He also pitched 2 shutout innings in 2 of his last 3 appearances at AA before his brief promotion to AAA.

I'm not saying there wasn't a physical issue, but from the evidence we have right now, it's hard to judge the extent of that issue and whether it could have been the primary cause of this DFA.

plenty of posts questioning the move, not a one explaining his velocity drop. 

[nicksaviking]

 

plenty of posts questioning the move, not a one explaining his velocity drop. 

 

If the velocity drop is due to him still not 100% back from the oblique strain, and the velocity drop was a determining factor in his DFA, the DFA makes little sense. Oblique strains don't seem career threatening.

 

I have to assume one if not both of those things are inaccurate then.

 

It's just quite strange for a velocity drop this significant not to be injury related, and as far as I know he hasn't been on the DL other than for the oblique strain. We've seen similar velocity drops before with guys who continued to pitch, Hughes and Perkins come to mind, but even while pitching, they were clearly in need of medical rehabilitation. I wonder if he currently has a condition that he CAN pitch with but probably should have addresses. Labrum issues or TOS or something.

 

Do guys get physicals upon promotions? The timing of the DFA after the promotion is also weird. Could something have turned up in a physical?