Article: Cody's Post-Draft Top Prospects: 10-6

[chpettit19]

Is the TJ surgery the reason Kirilloff is so far down on so many lists? First round pick out of high school who hit over .300 and was the Appy league player of the year in his first season. Doesn't seem to be a lot of love for the kid who has the chance to be a pretty darn good lefty bat for years to come.

 

I'd go...

1. Gordon (simply because he's doing it in the minors already)

2. Lewis (have to have faith the team picked a guy at #1 who is a top prospect)

3. Gonsalves

4. Kirilloff

5. Romero

6. Jorge

7. Jay (I have hopes for him still being a starter down the road, but will take a big time reliever as well)

8. Blankenhorn

9. Diaz

10. Stewart (Mostly wishful thinking that Falvie has some cool pitching development tricks up his sleeve)

8.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Is the TJ surgery the reason Kirilloff is so far down on so many lists? First round pick out of high school who hit over .300 and was the Appy league player of the year in his first season. Doesn't seem to be a lot of love for the kid who has the chance to be a pretty darn good lefty bat for years to come.

 

I'd go...

1. Gordon (simply because he's doing it in the minors already)

2. Lewis (have to have faith the team picked a guy at #1 who is a top prospect)

3. Gonsalves

4. Kirilloff

5. Romero

6. Jorge

7. Jay (I have hopes for him still being a starter down the road, but will take a big time reliever as well)

8. Blankenhorn

9. Diaz

10. Stewart (Mostly wishful thinking that Falvie has some cool pitching development tricks up his sleeve)

8.

 

It's why I moved him down. He now has a surgery, and he's losing a year of playing time. 

[chpettit19]

It's why I moved him down. He now has a surgery, and he's losing a year of playing time.

The loss of a year is why I have him after Gonsalves, but TJ doesn't really concern me in this day and age. Sano seems to have recovered well. He was the 15th pick and came out and did exactly what we'd all want that guy to do.

[melshmeister]

 

It's why I moved him down. He now has a surgery, and he's losing a year of playing time. 

 

I put Kirilloff #9 because:

-corner OF needs strong offensive production

-overall numbers for Appy League (in E-town) not really a plus despite the MVP

-would have expected either greater BB/K ratio or more PWR numbers to place him higher

-Diaz and Rooker are ahead due to the TJ injury and Diaz has greatly outperformed in the small samples we have

 

Others have him between 6-10 which seems more appropriate to me than #4... and I hope his swing shows my short-sightedness and he climbs to #2 or 3 by end of '18.

[nater79a]

 

Here goes nothin' ...

1. Gordon

2. Lewis

3. Romero

4. Gonsalves

5. Javier

6. Kiriloff

7. Jay 

8. Rortvedt 

9. Thorpe

10. Stewart

11. Diaz

12. Enlow

13. Garver

14. Blankenhorn

15. Rooker

 

16. Is a 15-way tie between the following (in no particular order): Granite, Jorge, Chargois, Wade, Melotakis, Vielma, Palka, Burdi, Palacios, Hildenberger, Leach, Graterol, L. Wells, Ynoa, Arraez

 

Ha!  You forgot Joe Benson and Hudson Boyd in that #16 tie!

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Oh, and Tyler Wells ....

^^ this prospect excites me tons if he can stay healthy (he is 6'-8").. call it a good feeling

[nater79a]

For those putting together top-10 (or 15) lists I'd keep a spot open for Jelfry Marte come July. Sounds like pretty much a done deal on the international FA from D.R.   True superstar potential, I think. Need to be patient though, probably starts out in the DSL this year.

 

Gordon, Javier, Vielma, Lewis, Palacios, Marte..... Twins should change their moniker to the "Minnesota Shortstops-R-Us".

[Tomj14]

 

Granite and Wade are interesting, they have skills that are often under valued because they aren't loud skills. I have no idea if they can hit enough or not, but I find them much more interesting than Palka.

 

I think weak was the wrong word. I'd say "not strong enough, considering how high they have been drafting". Both Stewart and Jay not being anything close to what they could be is killing them.

Mike, you always have good points. Imagine if Stewart and Jay were 80% of what they were hoping for, then we have 4 big time pitchers in our top 5 with Gordon, and Lewis isn't even in the top 5 imo. and the twins are sitting in a great position to do something this year.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

 

Gordon, Javier, Vielma, Lewis, Palacios, Marte..... Twins should change their moniker to the "Minnesota Shortstops-R-Us".

It's a good problem to have, I don't think I've ever heard a team complain they have too many SS, it's like complaining you have too much pitching.  Also in two years there is a good chance that four out those six are NOT playing SS but other positions whether due to lack of ability to or just outgrowing the position.

 

Just remember the Twins drafted Michael Cuddyer as a SS out of HS too....

[chpettit19]

 

I put Kirilloff #9 because:

-corner OF needs strong offensive production

-overall numbers for Appy League (in E-town) not really a plus despite the MVP

-would have expected either greater BB/K ratio or more PWR numbers to place him higher

-Diaz and Rooker are ahead due to the TJ injury and Diaz has greatly outperformed in the small samples we have

 

Others have him between 6-10 which seems more appropriate to me than #4... and I hope his swing shows my short-sightedness and he climbs to #2 or 3 by end of '18.

He was a top 100 prospect on basically every prospect ranking before the season. I don't see how this injury suddenly means his talent drops to barely being in the top 10 in the organization. If you believe Diaz is now a top 100 prospect that's one thing, but Tommy John doesn't really hurt people's careers anymore, other than losing a year on the field. With a position player it has even less of an effect. As far as Diaz "greatly out performing" him I'd disagree with that as well. In his second season in the Appy league he put up slightly better numbers than Kirilloff did in his first year while being a year older. He's playing well in low A this year, but he's not blowing the league away or anything.

 

Kirilloff had a strikeout percentage under 14% in his age 18 season coming out of an area that isn't known for incredibly great high school baseball so he made his professional debut at the age of 18 and more than held his own against a higher level of talent than he'd seen over an extended period of time.

 

And, on a lesser note, I'm not a subscriber to the "this position needs to hit like this" school of thought. I think baseball is getting further and further from defensive positions dictating offensive numbers. Playing up the middle no longer means you're a glove first, bat is a bonus, kind of guy anymore. If he's a .280 25 hr guy playing good defense in the outfield he's a top 2-3 guy in our system.

[melshmeister]

 

He was a top 100 prospect on basically every prospect ranking before the season. I don't see how this injury suddenly means his talent drops to barely being in the top 10 in the organization. If you believe Diaz is now a top 100 prospect that's one thing, but Tommy John doesn't really hurt people's careers anymore, other than losing a year on the field.

 

And, on a lesser note, I'm not a subscriber to the "this position needs to hit like this" school of thought.

 

I don't disagree anywhere, although the injury surely will take Kirilloff off of the top 100 boards. Not because of diminished skill, but because the margins at his prospect level are so thin... IOW, to be #80 is barely different than being #180... just a matter of taste, perspective, dogma, etc. So TJ for Sano will not bring his status down much and nor does it bring Kirilloff down much (but that little bit can take him, IMO, from #7 to #9 on the Twins list). Kirilloff does have a higher ceiling than L.Diaz, however there margins are thin enough for me to give the edge to Diaz. not saying I'm right though.

 

However, I do think Gordon, Lewis, Gonsalves, F. Romero, Thorpe, Javier all grade significantly higher than Kirilloff and that would be true regardless of TJ surgery (although his missed playing time could have changed that opinion had he been on the field, he just didn't have that opportunity).

[chpettit19]

 

I don't disagree anywhere, although the injury surely will take Kirilloff off of the top 100 boards. Not because of diminished skill, but because the margins at his prospect level are so thin... IOW, to be #80 is barely different than being #180... just a matter of taste, perspective, dogma, etc. So TJ for Sano will not bring his status down much and nor does it bring Kirilloff down much (but that little bit can take him, IMO, from #7 to #9 on the Twins list). Kirilloff does have a higher ceiling than L.Diaz, however there margins are thin enough for me to give the edge to Diaz. not saying I'm right though.

 

However, I do think Gordon, Lewis, Gonsalves, F. Romero, Thorpe, Javier all grade significantly higher than Kirilloff and that would be true regardless of TJ surgery (although his missed playing time could have changed that opinion had he been on the field, he just didn't have that opportunity).

Fair enough. This is what makes these exercises so fun/interesting. Other than Thorpe, I can see why you rank those other guys highly, but I don't know that them being "significantly higher than Kirilloff" makes a lot of sense to me. He most certainly will drop off the top 100 lists for the rest of this year, but we should expect him to be right back on them next year when he starts playing again. If Romero puts together an entire healthy season I'd put him right up there with the others I have in my top 4 and once we see what Javier does in the states we'll have a better idea of where he's at development wise and what sort of prospect he really is. To me if you're hoping on someone to be a big time bat Kirilloff and Javier are probably the ones I'd hope on. I don't see Gordon or Lewis ever bringing a great deal of power, but I think the potential for Kirilloff or Javier to be 30 homer guys is there. Gordon and Lewis bring higher defensive potential and this exercise is all about weighing different potentials and likelihoods to reach those potentials.

[joey emerson]

 

Our former draft director thought that college fireballers were a good bet for two reasons, keeping in mind the high failure rate of guys taken in those rounds - 1) less mileage on their arm and 2) if they can't be converted to starters, they can still be used in the bullpen.

 

The Twins went hard on that philosophy in 2014 although Burdi was a legit pick for a second rounder. Most mocks had him going in the first round.

so they took them cause the have mess mileage so they would be healthier? that has worked out. i just wonder why they keep guys around the scouting department who have failed more the every other team in drafting pitching since 2006 they have drafted 37 pitchers in the first 5 rounds they have only 3 successes so far and that's including kyle gibson. tyler duffy and jose berios being the other 2 

[melshmeister]

To me if you're hoping on someone to be a big time bat Kirilloff and Javier are probably the ones I'd hope on. I don't see Gordon or Lewis ever bringing a great deal of power, but I think the potential for Kirilloff or Javier to be 30 homer guys is there. Gordon and Lewis bring higher defensive potential and this exercise is all about weighing different potentials and likelihoods to reach those potentials.

 

And I know I weigh greater for defensive upside than most, while I am not as high on Kirilloff's potential PWR as many are. Like it's been said many times, these are fun exercises and a great platform for seeing the nuances of how others view the top Twins prospects.

[70charger]

 

so they took them cause the have mess mileage so they would be healthier? that has worked out. i just wonder why they keep guys around the scouting department who have failed more the every other team in drafting pitching since 2006 they have drafted 37 pitchers in the first 5 rounds they have only 3 successes so far and that's including kyle gibson. tyler duffy and jose berios being the other 2 

 

How do you know they will keep them around? The new bosses haven't even been here a year yet. I'd expect changes, but these things don't happen immediately.

[goulik]

First, let me say that I weighted this with what I consider likliehood of contributing at the MLB level EVER so the farther from the majors, the lower they drop on this ranking vs talent/potential as the second, not the first factor. I also placed a lot of weight on current health and performance so my list may really look whacked out and is likely to get hammered but I dont care.

 

GORDON

ROMERO (Beats Gonsalves by health)

GONSALVES

LEWIS

WADE

ROOKER

BUSENITZ

R. ROSARIO

PALKA

KIRRILOFF (Right behind Wade if he had been healthy...maybe even in front)

GRANITE (Closeness to majors and uique base stealing skills a big deal here)

PALACIOS

ENLOW

HILDENBERGER

DIAZ

JAVIER

 

If I redo this in an hour, I would probably change a lot...Past Gordon, I dont think there is cant miss talent. Too many really talented people in the low minors that may fizzle like we have seen too many times (Stewart, Jay, Harrison) and role players in the high minors that will probably make it but not perenial all stars. Romero has the best potential to blow us away in the near term but he has not quite done that yet for me.

[caninatl04]

 

 

I think weak was the wrong word. I'd say "not strong enough, considering how high they have been drafting". Both Stewart and Jay not being anything close to what they could be is killing them.

Very well said.

[caninatl04]

For a team that started the season with zero Top 50 prospects and only a handful in the 80-100 range, (so a pretty weak farm system), I think its an indirect indictment of the draft that maybe only one of their three top 37 picks plus their over slot 3rd rounder cracks the top 10. 

[gunnarthor]

 

so they took them cause the have mess mileage so they would be healthier? that has worked out. i just wonder why they keep guys around the scouting department who have failed more the every other team in drafting pitching since 2006 they have drafted 37 pitchers in the first 5 rounds they have only 3 successes so far and that's including kyle gibson. tyler duffy and jose berios being the other 2 

That was the logic as I understood it. Didn't say I agreed with it. That draft director has been replaced.

 

I'll also point out that many people outside of the Twins have long had very high opinion of the Twins scouting department, including Keith Law, who has argued that the scouting department just needed an analytical approach to their reports. That's very similar to what Falvey said going into this draft. And the draft gurus have said the Twins had the best draft this year.

[Darius]

I couldnt put Gordon ahead of Lewis, like I see many doing. Lewis was just drafted #1 overall, and has more tools. I have a hard time seeing Gordon putting up offensive numbers at the MLB level. Lewis has elite offensive potential. But, I can also understand wanting to see him do something in pro ball first.

 

I'd put Rooker in my top 10. The guy just won the triple crown in the SEC, which is the equivalent of what, something like high A maybe? I don't think it's crazy to say he's more accomplished than Kirillof that this point.

 

My top 10:

 

10. Thorpe

9. Blankenhorn

8. Rooker

7. Diaz

6. Javier

5. Kirillof

4. Gonsalves

3. Romero

2. Gordon

1. Lewis

 

5-10 is basically interchangeable, I have a tough time with that order. I'd find room for Enlow once he signs, and bump either one of 7-10. Leach maybe considered as well, really like what I hear about him.

[olivia11]

1. Lewis

2. Gordon

3. Romero

4. Gonsalves

5. Kiriloff

6. Enlow

7. Jay

8. Stewart

9. Blankenhorn

10. Jorge 

11. Rooker

12. Diaz

13. Wade

14. Chargois

15. Leach

[Mike Sixel]

Keith Law says Lewis is the Twins 2nd best prospect right now. Gordon number 1. There is more in the article, of course.

[laloesch]

 

You have never heard anyone from the Twins, say any of these players were fast to the majors. Melotakis, Chargois, Jones, Burdi, and Bard have all missed a great deal of time due to injuries and injuries are part of the game.

 

They may not have said it but several of these guys were college guys so the expectation is that they will move faster to the majors than high school draftees.  They also can't hide behind the injury bug forever. 

[laloesch]

 

I couldnt put Gordon ahead of Lewis, like I see many doing. Lewis was just drafted #1 overall, and has more tools. I have a hard time seeing Gordon putting up offensive numbers at the MLB level. Lewis has elite offensive potential. But, I can also understand wanting to see him do something in pro ball first.

I'd put Rooker in my top 10. The guy just won the triple crown in the SEC, which is the equivalent of what, something like high A maybe? I don't think it's crazy to say he's more accomplished than Kirillof that this point.

My top 10:

10. Thorpe
9. Blankenhorn
8. Rooker
7. Diaz
6. Javier
5. Kirillof
4. Gonsalves
3. Romero
2. Gordon
1. Lewis

5-10 is basically interchangeable, I have a tough time with that order. I'd find room for Enlow once he signs, and bump either one of 7-10. Leach maybe considered as well, really like what I hear about him.

 

Wow Thorpe at 10?

[jsteve96]

 

Not much difference between a guy who hasn't signed but will and a guy who has signed but hasn't played yet. Also, have you seen what Granite is doing in AAA??

Oh I have watched every game on the app I know how he's doing. Blankenhorn potential >>> Granite. granite = Ben Revere. I think Blankenhorn should be better than that