Chances of winning the AL Central Division?

[brettbrett88]

Hey everyone,

 

Would I most likely be wasting my money if I bet some cash on you guys to win your Division? I know its early in the season and you've made a good start but I'm interested to know your thoughts.

 

Currently the bookies have the Cleveland Indians as favourites at 1/5 and the rest are:

 

Twins 13/2

Tigers 15/2

White Sox 40/1

Royals 40/1

 

Then again...who would have thought Leicester would win the Premier League after battling relegation the previous season?! 

 

I've never been a massive baseball fan before but I find it interesting that you cant have a draw as there has to be a winner.

 

Thanks,

 

Brett

[Vanimal46]

Welcome to the site! If I were you, I'd probably save my money.... 

Fangraphs gives the Twins a 4.1% chance to win the division

 

Fivethirtyeight gives the Twins a 13% chance to win the division

 

TwinsDaily gives the Twins a 100% chance to win the division! 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think the systems are too down on the Twins. We're virtually 1/3rd of the way through the season and they haven't relinquished first place in over a month, I believe.

 

But I'd still put the odds of them winning the division quite low, maybe 20%. 25% if I'm feeling generous.

[FlauerPauer]

 

But I'd still put the odds of them winning the division quite low, maybe 20%. 25% if I'm feeling generous.

 

Better than they were at the beginning of the year!  I'll take those odds.  I truly don't see any team other than the Indians making a push.  Maybe the Tigers, but I'd take the Twins against the Tigers.

[Thrylos]

 

I think the systems are too down on the Twins. We're virtually 1/3rd of the way through the season and they haven't relinquished first place in over a month, I believe.

 

But I'd still put the odds of them winning the division quite low, maybe 20%. 25% if I'm feeling generous.

 

Love Dick Bremer's comparisons with the 2016 team that he makes after each Twins' win, as if they were meaningful.

 

I think that comparisons with the 2015 team are more meaningful, because that was a team that "competed".  Yesterday (6/4) the Twins won their 29th game and their 10th series.  The 2015 team that ended up 12 games behind in AL Central and 3 games behind the second WC spot won their 29th game on May 30th and their 10th series on May 27th. 

 

So they are behind the pace of the team that just did not get it done.   The reason that team did not get it done is because the FO either did not know they had holes (Perkins got lame in the second half) or decided not to fix them properly by being big time buyers. 

 

I think that this season the Central is more winnable.  There is no team like the Royals, unless the Indians decide to be major buyers during the deadline.   So to really know the odds is to know what Falvine have in their minds about competing (go out and get a top-mid of the rotation starter who is hot, two back end of the bullpen arms better than Kintzler and a starting OF) or not.

 

Hard to tell.

[brettbrett88]

Thanks for your feedback so far guys!

 

I guess (easier said than done of course) if you go on a winning streak and the Indians go on a bad run anything can happen right?! Then the pressure will be on them to catch up

 

The Indians have some tough games this month against the likes of the Rockies away, at home against the dodgers...away at the orioles and they play you 6 times this month. Also if you can come out of your 2 series with the Indians in good shape then it really gives you the momentum to push on and gain more ground where possible.

 

Also from what I've been reading it would be helpful to have Phil Hughes back as soon as possible to help strengthen?

 

[Vanimal46]

 

Thanks for your feedback so far guys!

 

I guess (easier said than done of course) if you go on a winning streak and the Indians go on a bad run anything can happen right?! Then the pressure will be on them to catch up

 

The Indians have some tough games this month against the likes of the Rockies away, at home against the dodgers...away at the orioles and they play you 6 times this month. Also if you can come out of your 2 series with the Indians in good shape then it really gives you the momentum to push on and gain more ground where possible.

 

Also from what I've been reading it would be helpful to have Phil Hughes back as soon as possible to help strengthen?

 

Frankly they need a pitcher with a pulse who can pitch 5 innings in the #5 spot... Turns out it's harder to find than we thought! 

[Wyotwinsfan]

Things might change, but isn't it fun to have a winning baseball team and to be even talking about winning the division?

[clutterheart]

Twins are 13/2?

I still think Cleveland will take it.  Twins have too many holes.  

 

But bet a $1k bet on the twins gives $1.5k more than the same amount on Cleveland.  For my money, thats doesn't seem like a huge incentive to take a risk, so I would go Cleveland.   

[USAFChief]

Barring injury, the everyday lineup is likely to get better and better as the season progresses.

 

Add some pitching and this team has a legit chance at the division.

 

The biggest issue, as I see it, isn't the Twins, it's Cleveland. If their pitching gels, and they end up with 95 wins, the Twins can't compete. But that is far from a given.

 

And even if it does, a WC spot should be in play.

[Mike Sixel]

It is so hard to say right now. We have no idea how/what/when this FO will act at the deadline. Without changes to the pitching, it is hard for me to see a good path to the division. The defense is great, and the hitting is quite good. The pitching? Um, not so much.

 

So, w/o changes? The division? like 5%, imo.

[brettbrett88]

 

It is so hard to say right now. We have no idea how/what/when this FO will act at the deadline. Without changes to the pitching, it is hard for me to see a good path to the division. The defense is great, and the hitting is quite good. The pitching? Um, not so much.

 

So, w/o changes? The division? like 5%, imo.

When is the deadline for bringing in new players? sorry, I don't know how it works? Sort of budget you have? Any realistic pitchers you have your eye on that would impove the team?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Love Dick Bremer's comparisons with the 2016 team that he makes after each Twins' win, as if they were meaningful.

 

I think that comparisons with the 2015 team are more meaningful, because that was a team that "competed".  Yesterday (6/4) the Twins won their 29th game and their 10th series.  The 2015 team that ended up 12 games behind in AL Central and 3 games behind the second WC spot won their 29th game on May 30th and their 10th series on May 27th. 

 

So they are behind the pace of the team that just did not get it done.   The reason that team did not get it done is because the FO either did not know they had holes (Perkins got lame in the second half) or decided not to fix them properly by being big time buyers. 

 

I think that this season the Central is more winnable.  There is no team like the Royals, unless the Indians decide to be major buyers during the deadline.   So to really know the odds is to know what Falvine have in their minds about competing (go out and get a top-mid of the rotation starter who is hot, two back end of the bullpen arms better than Kintzler and a starting OF) or not.

 

Hard to tell.

It is hard to tell and while 2015 is a decent baseline to follow, the 2015 squad was good in May and wasn't impressive before or after that month.

 

The 2015 squad opened May with a 12-11 record. Okay, so that's respectable. Not terribly impressive but respectable.

 

But after closing out May with a 30-19 record, the 2015 squad went just 53-60 the rest of the way.

 

It's entirely possible the 2017 squad will follow suit but without that extraordinary month of May (18-8), the 2015 team was pedestrian at best and slightly bad most of the time.

[Akadia]

The non-waiver trade deadline is the end of July, MLB has a pretty decent faq: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/2119863/

[Doomtints]

Make the bet but don't go all in. If any team heats up and pulls away, it will be the Twins, but equally likely would be the title being decided very late in the year. If the latter, anything can happen.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

When is the deadline for bringing in new players? sorry, I don't know how it works? Sort of budget you have? Any realistic pitchers you have your eye on that would impove the team?

You can move players from the minor leagues to the majors, though there are restrictions regarding roster sizes that get in the way. The biggest restriction is that very few players in the minor leagues will acquit themselves well in Major League Baseball.

There are no budget limits beyond the fact that owners are a cautious lot. The other part of this is that unless you trade with another team to pick up one of their high salary players, everybody is already under contract. You are not likely to find a pitcher who can be successful in MLB who is currently parking cars.

Like soccer, the really good ones that you want are working for someone else.

Trades are MUCH easier up to July 31. After that other teams can mess it up for you. If you are winning and another team is close behind they may mess up your trade because they (obviously) don't want to see you get better.

There will be Free Agent pitchers in the off-season who could help for next year.

As teams surrender to the fact that they are not going to compete this year there may be some available in trades. They can be expensive in terms of what you have to give up in prospects.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Make the bet but don't go all in. If any team heats up and pulls away, it will be the Twins, but equally likely would be the title being decided very late in the year. If the latter, anything can happen.

I believe Cleveland is the most likely to heat up and pull away but the Twins are the second-most likely to do it. Maybe even a close second.

 

But something needs to happen with the pitching staff for that to happen. Maybe Mejia heats up and covers the rotation but I just don't see how the bullpen will be able to do it.

 

Then again, bullpens are loony. Maybe someone like Wimmers strings together 40 magical innings and the bullpen powers through the season. Plenty of mediocre relievers have had stellar partial seasons in the past.

[Doomtints]

 

I believe Cleveland is the most likely to heat up and pull away but the Twins are the second-most likely to do it. Maybe even a close second.

 

But something needs to happen with the pitching staff for that to happen. Maybe Mejia heats up and covers the rotation but I just don't see how the bullpen will be able to do it.

 

Then again, bullpens are loony. Maybe someone like Wimmers strings together 40 magical innings and the bullpen powers through the season. Plenty of mediocre relievers have had stellar partial seasons in the past.

 

I feel like the Indians will improve slowly but incrementally. I don't think they'll go on any long winning streaks. The Twins are hitting like a team that is going to get hot if the pitching can make it over the hump.

 

Mejia might be a #4 long-term but I'm hoping he can perform like a #3 for much of the year. If this happens, the Twins will do a lot of damage over the coming months.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The odds are better now than they were before the season started (I think I read 20-1 before the start of the season). However my bookie, Vinny Goombah, says take the 13 to 2 odds. Therefore I have withdrawn the max from my 401 k plan and put it all on the Twins to win it all in 2017. Plus I have my green Lucky Twins shirt that I bought at Century Link Field last spring. None of the magic was used last season, so the magic must still be in the shirt.

[brettbrett88]

 

The odds are better now than they were before the season started (I think I read 20-1 before the start of the season). However my bookie, Vinny Goombah, says take the 13 to 2 odds. Therefore I have withdrawn the max from my 401 k plan and put it all on the Twins to win it all in 2017. Plus I have my green Lucky Twins shirt that I bought Century Link Field last spring. None of the magic was used last season, so the magic must still be in the shirt.

 Is any of that true?  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

 Is any of that true?

Yes.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I just reread my post. I left the word "at" out. I didn't buy Century Link Field...I bought a green Lucky Twins shirt "at" Century Link Field. Sorry.

[brettbrett88]

 

The odds are better now than they were before the season started (I think I read 20-1 before the start of the season). However my bookie, Vinny Goombah, says take the 13 to 2 odds. Therefore I have withdrawn the max from my 401 k plan and put it all on the Twins to win it all in 2017. Plus I have my green Lucky Twins shirt that I bought at Century Link Field last spring. None of the magic was used last season, so the magic must still be in the shirt.

Why does your bookie think its good then?  

[nicksaviking]

It would be an easier bet (or non-bet) if we had a better read on the new front office, but at this point we have no reference to rely on for pennant chase behavior.

 

Here in Twinsland we are accustomed to our front office making at best a token trade devoid of enough improvement to bolster the team. At this point it looks to be more of the same, but the new brain trust came from Cleveland and Texas, organizations not shy about making big(ish) trades. So, we are really just operating on assumptions at this point.

[DaveW]

I took them at 30:1 before the season

[Riverbrian]

I got 100-1 for a World Series Victory before the season. It was a homer bet that I fully expected to lose when I made it but... I did it anyway. 

 

As of today... Here's why I like the odds of winning the Central. 

 

Pitching: Nobody has it

 

The Indians are supposed to have it but they don't right now. Salazar, Bauer and Tomlin have been struggling. Carrasco has been decent and Kluber has been average and hurt and until the pitching improves they won't fly past anyone. 

 

The Tigers have Fulmer pitching well and everybody else has struggled.

 

The Royals have Vargas coming out of nowhere and Duffy on the DL. Hard to say if a 3rd arm will arise from the rest. 

 

The White Sox have Holland and Pelfrey... Quintana was supposed to be the Ace and he has been lit up. 

 

It's easy to look at the Twins by themselves and say I don't see it... But then when you look at everybody else... You start to see that the odds are not overwhelming. 

 

Our starting pitching is matching up and the playing field is kinda even. 

[Blake]

 

I got 100-1 for a World Series Victory before the season. It was a homer bet that I fully expected to lose when I made it but... I did it anyway. 

 

As of today... Here's why I like the odds. 

 

Pitching: Nobody has it

 

The Indians are supposed to have it but they don't right now. Salazar, Bauer and Tomlin have been struggling. Carrasco has been decent and Kluber has been average and hurt and until the pitching improves they won't fly past anyone. 

 

The Tigers have Fulmer pitching well and everybody else has struggled.

 

The Royals have Vargas coming out of knowhere and Duffy on the DL. Hard to say if a 3rd arm will arise from the rest. 

 

The White Sox have Holland and Pelfrey... Quintana was supposed to be the Ace and he has been lit up. 

 

It's easy to look at the Twins by themselves and say I don't see it... But then when you look at everybody else... You start to see that the odds are not overwhelming. 

 

Out starting pitching is matching up and the playing field is kinda even. 

The odds on the Twins have shortened considerably. I have the Twins at 40:1 to win the Series and I put down the bet last month. Hard to believe things have moved that much. Vegas must have seen a lot of money wagered on the Twins to win it all. Along with the Twins actually doing fairly well.