2017 MLB draft thread

[Mike Sixel]

 

Came across this article on the importance of age in projecting performance. Its a few year old but damn interesting.
 
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15295
 

 

And Buxton was old for his class......

[Willihammer]

After reading that I went through MLB's top 100 draft prospects. Here are the youngest HS position players:

 

Player Pos DOB
Mark Vientos 3B 12/11/1999
Heliot Ramos OF 9/7/1999
Hunter Greene SS 8/6/1999
Quentin Holmes OF 7/7/1999
Royce Lewis SS/OF 6/5/1999
Adam Hall SS 5/22/1999
Jo Adell OF 4/8/1999
Ryan Vilade 3B 2/18/1999
Calvin Mitchell OF 1/8/1999
Chris Seise SS 1/6/1999
Drew Waters OF 12/30/1998
Sam McMillan C 12/1/1998
MJ Melendez C 11/29/1998
Austin Beck OF 11/21/1998
Nick Allen SS 10/8/1998
Nick Pratto 1B 10/6/1998
Hagen Danner C 9/30/1998
Luis Campusano C 9/29/1998
Mason House OF 9/10/1998
Daniel Cabrera OF 9/5/1998
Garrett Mitchell OF 9/4/1998
Tristen Lutz OF 8/22/1998
Cole Brannen OF 8/4/1998
Jeter Downs SS 7/27/1998
Bubba Thompson OF 6/9/1998
Jacob Pearson OF 6/1/1998
Brady McConnell SS 5/24/1998
Connor Uselton OF 5/20/1998

[prouster]

 

After reading that I went through MLB's top 100 draft prospects. Here are the youngest HS position players:

 

Player Pos DOB
Mark Vientos 3B 12/11/1999
Heliot Ramos OF 9/7/1999
Hunter Greene SS 8/6/1999
Quentin Holmes OF 7/7/1999
Royce Lewis SS/OF 6/5/1999
Adam Hall SS 5/22/1999
Jo Adell OF 4/8/1999
Ryan Vilade 3B 2/18/1999
Calvin Mitchell OF 1/8/1999
Chris Seise SS 1/6/1999
Drew Waters OF 12/30/1998
Sam McMillan C 12/1/1998
MJ Melendez C 11/29/1998
Austin Beck OF 11/21/1998
Nick Allen SS 10/8/1998
Nick Pratto 1B 10/6/1998
Hagen Danner C 9/30/1998
Luis Campusano C 9/29/1998
Mason House OF 9/10/1998
Daniel Cabrera OF 9/5/1998
Garrett Mitchell OF 9/4/1998
Tristen Lutz OF 8/22/1998
Cole Brannen OF 8/4/1998
Jeter Downs SS 7/27/1998
Bubba Thompson OF 6/9/1998
Jacob Pearson OF 6/1/1998
Brady McConnell SS 5/24/1998
Connor Uselton OF 5/20/1998

 

Super interesting find. Thanks for posting. I've been hoping the Twins take a crack at Vientos or Ramos at 35 or 37. I'm not sure if there are signability concerns with either, and Vientos had a disappointing spring, but the upside is huge for both players.

[gunnarthor]

I remember reading articles like that one and that was one of the reasons I was really excited about last years draft class.  I think we drafted five 17 year-olds in our first 10 picks. 

[Pitz]

Twins took 4 HS bats with their first four picks last year. Don't know exactly, but it looks like Kirilloff and Rortvedt were both fairly old while Baddoo and Miranda were both fairly young.

 

Edit: Kirillof and Rortvedt were both 18 when drafted. Baddoo and Miranda were both 17.

[gunnarthor]

My bad, thought Kiriloff was 17. I know one of the pitchers was as well.

 

Changing the topic slightly, has anyone heard reports on JJ Schwarz? He was really bad early but had a hot month and was back behind the plate. Has he played himself back into a second round pick?

[Mike Sixel]

 

My bad, thought Kiriloff was 17. I know one of the pitchers was as well.

 

Changing the topic slightly, has anyone heard reports on JJ Schwarz? He was really bad early but had a hot month and was back behind the plate. Has he played himself back into a second round pick?

 

No, but I can ask KLAW on Twitter (he rarely responds, but we can see). Or maybe Longenhagen....

 

Dude was severely penalized by the rules prohibiting sophomores (or was it his freshman year that was so great?) from being drafted! So much money gone.....

[Hrbowski]

 

My bad, thought Kiriloff was 17. I know one of the pitchers was as well.

 

Changing the topic slightly, has anyone heard reports on JJ Schwarz? He was really bad early but had a hot month and was back behind the plate. Has he played himself back into a second round pick?

Talked to a scout about him recently. He said that teams think Schwarz will still be a very good player, but that it is hard to tell where he will go.

[Mike Sixel]

I asked both KLAW and Longenhagen if JJ was back into round two now?

 

KLAW: Not for me.

 

will post Eric's reply if he makes one.

[nicksaviking]

 

Came across this article on the importance of age in projecting performance. Its a few year old but damn interesting.
 
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15295
 

 

Great stuff. Some of my favorite names are certainly at the top of that list.

 

I hope the new front office is doing this kind of historical dig. Not just with age, but bucket players by position, handedness, region of the country, school, height, weight, etc. Scouting is always going to be important, but the guys who can assemble and sort data like this can certainly find extremely telling patterns.

 

The tough part is always going to be to convince the decision makers to toss out their own preconceived notions and wishes and objectively consider the data.

[Mike Sixel]

I mentioned to KLAW that JJ lost a lot of money since the start of college, said if he'd have come out after his freshman year, he would have gone top 10. 

[Willihammer]

Just to finish the thought, I added the college commitments to the table of youngest HS position players. Color coded for program prestige as ranked here. Maybe gives a rough idea of signability.

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

I mentioned to KLAW that JJ lost a lot of money since the start of college, said if he'd have come out after his freshman year, he would have gone top 10. 

Ignoring the slight to Shwartz for a moment, what does that say about these drafts? If Schwartz was a top 10 guy in 2015 the team that drafted him would be looking at a bust. And fans would be asking it was the teams fault or Schwartz?  And as a college freshman, presumably we'd know more about him than a HS senior. So maybe the bust rates for top picks happens because becoming a ML baseball player is pretty hard and luck is a bigger piece of this than we thought?

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Just to finish the thought, I added the college commitments to the table of youngest HS position players. Color coded for program prestige as ranked here. Maybe gives a rough idea of signability.

 

Does this same line of thinking work for pitching? Mackenzie Gore (2/24/1999) for example would be in the top 10 on this list as far as youngest in the class.

[Willihammer]

 

Does this same line of thinking work for pitching? Mackenzie Gore (2/24/1999) for example would be in the top 10 on this list as far as youngest in the class.

Yeah I dunno. I was hoping Part Two looked at pitchers, but it doesn't.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15306

[Mike Sixel]

 

Ignoring the slight to Shwartz for a moment, what does that say about these drafts? If Schwartz was a top 10 guy in 2015 the team that drafted him would be looking at a bust. And fans would be asking it was the teams fault or Schwartz?  And as a college freshman, presumably we'd know more about him than a HS senior. So maybe the bust rates for top picks happens because becoming a ML baseball player is pretty hard and luck is a bigger piece of this than we thought?

 

We don't really know that, though. His life would be totally different. It's likely(?), but we don't know it. Also, he could still rebound and hit. We don't know yet, he's 21/2....

[Mike Sixel]

 

Ignoring the slight to Shwartz for a moment, what does that say about these drafts? If Schwartz was a top 10 guy in 2015 the team that drafted him would be looking at a bust. And fans would be asking it was the teams fault or Schwartz?  And as a college freshman, presumably we'd know more about him than a HS senior. So maybe the bust rates for top picks happens because becoming a ML baseball player is pretty hard and luck is a bigger piece of this than we thought?

 

What we know is that after the top 1-3 or 5, the expected value of draft picks drops fast. Then there is another tier, then another, then some more, then after round 4 or 5, I think, it's kind of luck. But, I'd have to find the studies to know for sure (they are out there). 

[Thrylos]

KLAW's latest draft is here.

 

There seems to be a general consensus with the 1-1 pick.  If you don't have access (and care) he has Carlson falling out of the 1st round (MLB.com and BA have him going 30th to the Cubs)

[FlauerPauer]

I still like Gore.  I think he's the guy.  I also like Wright, but Gore is going to be the guy five years from now that is an absolute stud.  I get the safe pick with Wright, but Gore is a monster.  1 ER all year! 83 innings!  I don't care if you're in little league, that's ridiculous!  174 k's too!

 

And yes, I get that it's high school hitters and not college, but we don't have many lefty starters in the minors.

[drivlikejehu]

One problem with Gore is that he has helium and probably wouldn't take much of a discount at this point, especially as a HS player with college leverage.

[Thrylos]

 

I still like Gore.  I think he's the guy.  I also like Wright, but Gore is going to be the guy five years from now

 

That's part of the reason that the Twins have to go with a College guy:  They don't have 5 years.  Their main young core (Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Berrios, Buxton) will be broken by then and they will need pitching help ASAP

[FunnyPenguin]

I am rooting for Wright, isn't he pretty much the common sense pick at this point?  College starter that could  be in the majors before long with a good 4 pitch mix, high floor and a ceiling of a top of the rotation starter.

[Vanimal46]

 

I am rooting for Wright, isn't he pretty much the common sense pick at this point?  College starter that could  be in the majors before long with a good 4 pitch mix, high floor and a ceiling of a top of the rotation starter.

 

Probably. I just want the pitcher with the highest ceiling... Their MLB ETA should be the last thing on their scouting report to focus on. I'm very skeptical when people say Wright, for example, could reach the majors by 2018. 

[markos]

 

I'm very skeptical when people say Wright, for example, could reach the majors by 2018. 

I think it is close to 50-50. Since 2007, the majority of top-5 selected college pitchers have debuted in the majors the following season. Rodon, Gausman, Bauer, Pomeranz, Strasburg, Matusz and Price all got at least a cup of coffee - some of them significantly more. Further, the Twins will probably be in contention again and in need of pitching, which makes it less likely that they will try to manipulate service time.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Probably. I just want the pitcher with the highest ceiling... Their MLB ETA should be the last thing on their scouting report to focus on. I'm very skeptical when people say Wright, for example, could reach the majors by 2018. 

 

Why?

 

He should go straight to FL, after getting a few weeks off. Assuming he is good to very good, he can start in A+ or even AA next year.

 

It's about their willingness to be aggressive, certainly the White Sox would be....

[nicksaviking]

HS or otherwise, I don't think you take a guy at 1:1 who you expect will take 5 years. I don't know how the Twins or any front office feels about any of these guys, but at 1:1, I'd be disappointed if people didn't view whomever it is as a guy who moves multiple levels a season.

[Vanimal46]

 

Why?

 

He should go straight to FL, after getting a few weeks off. Assuming he is good to very good, he can start in A+ or even AA next year.

 

It's about their willingness to be aggressive, certainly the White Sox would be....

 

It's more of a general skepticism since many factors play into their ETA... Injuries, ineffectiveness, etc.

 

Maybe I'm just jaded because all of the awesome RP prospects (Burdi, Reed, Melotakis) were advertised as near-MLB ready players. 3-4 years later and we're still waiting..... 

[FlauerPauer]

 

That's part of the reason that the Twins have to go with a College guy:  They don't have 5 years.  Their main young core (Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Berrios, Buxton) will be broken by then and they will need pitching help ASAP

 

 

What's to say that those five guys won't still be around? Also, what do you mean by broken?  Injured? Out of the organization?  Not quite understanding what you mean by "broken".

 

Five years from now they will all be 28-29; by experts accounts that is a year removed from entering their prime.  Payroll will not be an option to sign those guys.  Hell, Gore may not even take five years.  Like I said, in my original post, I like both Gore and Wright, I just think that Gore is going to be the better pitcher in five years.  Do we really think we see Wright next year?  Knowing how the Twins move their players in the minors, he may be down there for three years...

[bird]

 

Ignoring the slight to Shwartz for a moment, what does that say about these drafts? If Schwartz was a top 10 guy in 2015 the team that drafted him would be looking at a bust. And fans would be asking it was the teams fault or Schwartz?  And as a college freshman, presumably we'd know more about him than a HS senior. So maybe the bust rates for top picks happens because becoming a ML baseball player is pretty hard and luck is a bigger piece of this than we thought?

 

 

Good point to bring up. However, I think it might be more accurate to just say fans would be declaring the bust to be their team's fault with no mention of the role of the prospect.

[Vanimal46]

 

HS or otherwise, I don't think you take a guy at 1:1 who you expect will take 5 years. I don't know how the Twins or any front office feels about any of these guys, but at 1:1, I'd be disappointed if people didn't view whomever it is as a guy who moves multiple levels a season.

 

It'll be interesting to see who's strategy wins... Falvey's long-term view, or Levine's short-term view. IMO, if the choice is pitcher A - someone who may arrive in the MLB in ~2 years, but only projected to be a #2/3, or pitcher B - someone who may arrive in the MLB in ~4-5 years, but projected to be a #1, I'd take gamble on pitcher B.