2017 MLB draft thread

[Thrylos]

 

I'm skeptical they'll take a RHP that short 1-1.

 

 

It is not the height.  That's Pedro Martinez & Greg Maddux height.  Brandon McKay has practically exactly the same stats this season against very similar competition, but unlike Bukauskas, a. he has been doing it for 3 seasons and b. is a lefty.

 

Still too early though

 

 

[Willihammer]

 

It does sound like Greene's HS coach is doing right by him. He's not going deep into games and looking at his numbers the only reason for that is because he has a coach who cares about his future.

 

Looks like Greene threw 55 IP as a junior and is only at 21 thus far as a senior.

 

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/hunter-greene/uMJm9ZrFEeOzMAAmVebBJg/gendersport/baseball-stats.htm

 

And only ten games left in the regular season.

Assuming this is accurate, the stats are impressive but don't scream 1-1 to me. 30 Ks against 82 BF is a 37% K-rate. On a k/9 scale its 12.9. For comparison Jameson Taillon had 114 K's in 62-2/3 IP (k/9 of 16.4). And I would guess he did it against tougher competition as his high school enrollment was over 4,000 and Greene's is only 1200.

[d-mac]

 

So you don't want guys with plus velocity?

 

I've grown very tired of the alternative.

 

No. But I do have a problem with young kids doing things so damaging to their arms (like throwing 100mph @17) before their bodies fully mature. Greene is going to have a lifetime of arm problems ahead. At 1-1 you can't screw up. There is a reason there has never been a high school righty taken there. Too much risk. 

 

And it's not like Bukauskas is the second coming of Nick Blackburn. He's got a near 40% K rate in the second best conference in college. 

[d-mac]

 

Assuming this is accurate, the stats are impressive but don't scream 1-1 to me. 30 Ks against 82 BF is a 37% K-rate. On a k/9 scale its 12.9. For comparison Jameson Taillon had 114 K's in 62-2/3 IP (k/9 of 16.4). And I would guess he did it against tougher competition as his high school enrollment was over 4,000 and Greene's is only 1200.

 

One of the big negatives on Greene is that he's a fastball only pitcher. His curveball isn't a quality pitch yet. He is so overhyped. 

[d-mac]

 

This will be the new Pierzynski of Mientkiewicz if the Twins sing him.

 

Bukauskas

(think book-HOUSE-cash with softer ending and no H in house)

 

No wonder the kid goes by JB, even though his middle name is Allen

 

Yeah, my bad. I knew how to spell it and got lazy about checking my work. 

[Willihammer]

There's still a lot of time left but if the draft were held today I'd take Bukauskas or Rooker, offer underslot money and then play overslot shenanigans with the 35 and 37 picks.

[drjim]

It is not the height. That's Pedro Martinez & Greg Maddux height. Brandon McKay has practically exactly the same stats this season against very similar competition, but unlike Bukauskas, a. he has been doing it for 3 seasons and b. is a lefty.

 

Still too early though

I suspect the process is a little more thorough than scouting a stat line.

 

And I realize 6-1 RHP make it, but the odds are longer.

[nicksaviking]

 

No. But I do have a problem with young kids doing things so damaging to their arms (like throwing 100mph @17) before their bodies fully mature. Greene is going to have a lifetime of arm problems ahead. At 1-1 you can't screw up. There is a reason there has never been a high school righty taken there. Too much risk. 

 

And it's not like Bukauskas is the second coming of Nick Blackburn. He's got a near 40% K rate in the second best conference in college. 

 

All reports make it sound like Greene has a pretty easy delivery. I don't think it's the velocity that causes arm issues, it's the exertion. Something I'm pretty confident the new analytically and pitching inclined front office is monitoring.

 

Bukauskas would be my second choice, but his height worries me every bit as much Greene's inexperience.

[d-mac]

 

All reports make it sound like Greene has a pretty easy delivery. I don't think it's the velocity that causes arm issues, it's the exertion. Something I'm pretty confident the new analytically and pitching inclined front office is monitoring.

 

Bukauskas would be my second choice, but his height worries me every bit as much Greene's inexperience.

 

Height is really a non issue. http://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter

 

 

 

One common baseball theory is that taller pitchers are more durable and just intrinsically better than shorter pitchers. In this article I investigate whether that notion is true. I examined this theory by using a number of statistical techniques, including linear regressions and chi-square tests. For all linear regressions, transformations and nonlinear regressions were done but failed to substantially improve the r-squares. For an explanation of how the statistics were analyzed you can read the appendix at the end of the article.

 

In my analysis, I examined only players who were good enough to be drafted. As a result, the most this paper can say is that, when it comes to players who are good enough to be drafted in the Rule 4 amateur draft, the correlation between height and a player’s effectiveness or durability is not statistically significant. It is possible, regardless of the findings of this article, that there is a correlation between height and a player’s effectiveness or durability at lower levels, but I do not address the issue here, because of insufficient data and confounding variables, such as social pressures that convince shorter people to play positions other than pitcher.

 

[Willihammer]

The study does say that there is a slight correlation between pitcher height and the probability of remaining a starter. Evidence which could be used to discount the price of a shorter player taken at the top of the draft.

[Willihammer]

We should be clear that Bukauskas still has #1/2 starter ceiling. Probablyi the best pitcher in college and he's essentially a sophomore, he skipped a year of high school.

[d-mac]

 

The study does say that there is a slight correlation between pitcher height and the probability of remaining a starter. Evidence which could be used to discount the price of a shorter player taken at the top of the draft.

 

That's likely social, I'd imagine. If you're a tall pitcher, you're likely given more chances to start, because, well dammit, that's the way it's always been done! The same way short pitchers are likely "encouraged" to play other positions- there's a social stigma. 

[drivlikejehu]

I guess I'm curious what the scouts think in terms of how ready Bukauskas is, apart from his ceiling. If he's a mid-rotation guy sometime in 2018, with a little extra ceiling besides, then I'd want him. I'm not so thrilled if he's in the rotation circa 2020 (though he still wouldn't be old by any means at that point).

[Thrylos]

 

So you don't want guys with plus velocity?

 

I've grown very tired of the alternative.

 

Would you take Chapman at 1-1? He likely is the ceiling of Greene or slightly above Greene's ceiling.

 

I wouldn't.

[Willihammer]

 

That's likely social, I'd imagine. If you're a tall pitcher, you're likely given more chances to start, because, well dammit, that's the way it's always been done! The same way short pitchers are likely "encouraged" to play other positions- there's a social stigma. 

I suspect there's truth to that, but that's harder to prove.

[drjim]

Height is really a non issue. http://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter

Are we reading that study correctly? Best I can tell is thar taller pitchers are more likely to make the majors. But once in the majors there is no difference between tall and short.

 

That doesn't support that there is no difference to me. It means that taller pitchers ARE more likely to make it, and once pitchers have been properly weeded out in the minors there should be no difference. But a higher percentage of tall pitchers making it strikes me as a big deal.

 

Could be societal reasons or (more likely) durability and performance.

[drock2190]

Either Bukauskas or Greene.

 

I hope they pick Bukauskas because I recently played OOTP and he was considered a generational talent. Traded for him and he became Kershaw lite. 

 

Now I have high expectations for the kid.

[gunnarthor]

I think I'd be ok with any of Bukauskas, Greene or McKay. It might be interesting if they'd be willing to take Faedo for 6.0m (or less) to save more on the backend. I don't think any of those three guys would take a substantial discount and Greene might actually want to go overslot (thanks, Padres).

[Willihammer]

Are we reading that study correctly? Best I can tell is thar taller pitchers are more likely to make the majors. But once in the majors there is no difference between tall and short.

 

That doesn't support that there is no difference to me. It means that taller pitchers ARE more likely to make it, and once pitchers have been properly weeded out in the minors there should be no difference. But a higher percentage of tall pitchers making it strikes me as a big deal.

 

Could be societal reasons or (more likely) durability and performance.

Where do you see that

[drjim]

Where do you see that

I read the article. I was a little distracted but thought the data showed that drafted taller pitchers are more likely to make the bigs, but once there there was no difference in performance/durability between tall and short.

 

The authors theory is that taller pitchers get more chances because they are tall. I would suspect they actually are better and (especially) more durable and thus more likely to make it to the majors. Once players get to the bigs, it is a wash on performance.

 

Or did I misread the data?

[Willihammer]

I read the article. I was a little distracted but thought the data showed that drafted taller pitchers are more likely to make the bigs, but once there there was no difference in performance/durability between tall and short.

 

The authors theory is that taller pitchers get more chances because they are tall. I would suspect they actually are better and (especially) more durable and thus more likely to make it to the majors. Once players get to the bigs, it is a wash on performance.

 

Or did I misread the data?

I thinks so.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Wake Forest played Louiville today, with my personal cheeseball facing McKay...

 

Dushee picked up the win going 7 innings and striking out 6.

McKay got the loss going 7 innings and striking out 11.  His 2 ER cost him. 

Wright was pretty MEH, going 6, striking out 4, and giving up 3 R (none earned).

Lange got a lot of Ks, but didn't make it through 5 for LSU.

Faedo got a ton of Ks (12) but didn't make it through 6 and got hit pretty hard otherwise, with 5 ER.

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Not a good night for JB...  only lasted 4 innings giving up 7 runs (5 earned) and striking out 5.  He also had a couple walks.

 

McKay went 1/2 with 2 walks and a double..

 

OK, so I think this name has been brought up, but another name to toss around:  Brent Rooker.

 

If you like a college bat, this one seems pretty good. He was 4 for 4 with 6 RBI last night and is leading the SEC in 8 offensive categories.  We drafted him at 38 last year.  I have to think he's going higher than before. I don't see his name in any mocks, but getting drafted in the 38th round will do that. Wondering if by chance he's not a first rounder if he's a guy that makes sense with a later pick. He's a senior I believe, so a potential slot or under type guy too. 

[Willihammer]

Rooker with 3 homers last night. Once again an exit velo reading - 108mph on the grand slam (dunno about the other two).

 

http://www.secsports.com/video/19112914/msu-rooker-destroys-grand-slam

 

http://www.clarionledger.com/story/sports/college/mississippi-state/2017/04/08/brent-rookers-three-homers-lift-msu-over-kentucky/100206560/

[Willihammer]

Rooker batting .447/.539/1.008 on the year. 150 PAs, 20 BB, 25 Ks (16.7%), 15 HR, 14/18 SB. 

 

The steals are interesting. Is he fast? That could be one hell of a power-speed combo.

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW has an insider article... Thinks McKay could start in the majors this year, but is probably not an ace. Thinks Greene comes with more risk, but huge upside. He wouldn't argue with either pick, but would take Greene.

[gunnarthor]

I hope one of the prospect guru's answers a question or two about Rooker. He sounds exciting.

[Hrbowski]

 

I hope one of the prospect guru's answers a question or two about Rooker. He sounds exciting.

Twins took him as a draft eligible sophomore last year, and he can return to college one more year. He is not in consideration to be taken at #1, but if he continues to play well he could get taken on day one. From a hitting standpoint he doesn't have anything that jumps out and makes me think he can hit against better pitching. He is loud in the box, which can mess up his timing, and he doesn't have quick hands. He does have OK plate discipline, and his slightly uppercut swing allows him to hit for power. Overall, I am not impressed enough that I would take him in the first round.

[Mike Sixel]

Michelle
1:17 Will Brendan McKay be a hitter or pitcher in pro ball?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
1:17 I prefer him as a LHP but that is not a unanimous sentiment in the industry

[Cory Engelhardt]

^{Keith Law answered my question in his chat today...}

 

^{Cory 2:13pm You are probably tired of this question (sorry if that is the case) but I'm hoping the Twins take Hunter Greene, but wouldn't be sad about Brendan McKay. Who would you choose if you were in charge of their draft?}

 

^{Keith Law 2:13pm Greene. Chance for a generational talent there. McKay is very solid, not likely they ever regret taking him, but Greene has the raw elements to develop into a superstar and you rarely get a crack at guys like that.}