2017 MLB draft thread

[diehardtwinsfan]

Nice night for Poche.

 

Kendel was 1/3 with a HR and a walk.

[gunnarthor]

Nice write up on Faedo at minorleagueball

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/3/4/14813978/2017-mlb-draft-profile-alex-faedo-rhp-florida-gators

 

Unless he stumbles big - or the Twins have an aversion to pitchers throwing a slider - I think he's our pick.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Nice write up on Faedo at minorleagueball

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/3/4/14813978/2017-mlb-draft-profile-alex-faedo-rhp-florida-gators

 

Unless he stumbles big - or the Twins have an aversion to pitchers throwing a slider - I think he's our pick.

 

It certainly wouldn't surprise me. Greene and Kendall are his real competition, I think. And kendall would actually have to hit for it to happen.....

[DocBauer]

Reading this and looking at last season and his start this season, has to be #1 on my board at the moment.

[gunnarthor]

 

Reading this and looking at last season and his start this season, has to be #1 on my board at the moment.

Yeah, I don't think he has the ceiling of Greene but the combination of risk, stuff and how long it'll take him to be reach the majors probably make him #1.

[Vanimal46]

Faedo sounds like a fine player, but again, I want the highest upside possible when it comes to pitching. I still have Greene firmly as #1 on the board. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Nice write up on Faedo at minorleagueball

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/3/4/14813978/2017-mlb-draft-profile-alex-faedo-rhp-florida-gators

 

Unless he stumbles big - or the Twins have an aversion to pitchers throwing a slider - I think he's our pick.

 

Coach only made him throw 79 pitches last game. That makes me feel better. I'm still worried about him getting abused once the SEC schedule and the college World Series starts pressuring his coach to get every pitch out of him that he possibly can.

 

Greene is still my choice but Faedo is a close second assuming he comes out of the season without his coach doing ungodly things to his arm.

[gunnarthor]

 

Coach only made him throw 79 pitches last game. That makes me feel better. I'm still worried about him getting abused once the SEC schedule and the college World Series starts pressuring his coach to get every pitch out of him that he possibly can.

 

Greene is still my choice but Faedo is a close second assuming he comes out of the season without his coach doing ungodly things to his arm.

I think Florida has a fairly decent reputation as far as that goes.  

[BoofBonser]

The Twins need a power arm starter.

Enough with this 90-92 fastball pitch to contact crap we've been forced to watch the past 10 years. 

Faedo sits 92-95... not that he's a bad pitcher but I don't think he's what the Twins should be looking for.

Greene could end up being the best pitcher in our generation potentially... Supreme athlete (could be 1st round SS!), throws 100+, only in HS (will learn a ton and become even better), and he can be a organization changer in terms of philosophy.  

Pull the trigger Twins

[markos]

 

Nice write up on Faedo at minorleagueball

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/3/4/14813978/2017-mlb-draft-profile-alex-faedo-rhp-florida-gators

 

Unless he stumbles big - or the Twins have an aversion to pitchers throwing a slider - I think he's our pick.

I'm concerned about his velocity. If he is 92-95 pitching once a week, he is probably going to be 90-93 as a pro.

[nicksaviking]

 

I'm concerned about his velocity. If he is 92-95 pitching once a week, he is probably going to be 90-93 as a pro.

 

I don't know why, but I thought his FB was 94-96. Looking around, it does seem to be about 93-95. I'd like more velocity also. Has anyone seen any games or seen any write ups about how long he holds his velocity into the game?

 

I do love sliders though, if it's truly a great pitch I still wouldn't write him off.

[gunnarthor]

Most of the prospect sites have his fastball as a 60 pitch, which is plus.  It's not his out pitch - that's his slider - but it's still real.  Even if he goes down to 55, he apparently has enough deception to make it play up.  He's not a perfect prospect of course but he would be our #1 prospect and probably a top 20 guy upon draft day.  Greene has a bit higher upside but a lot more risk.  

[AZTwin]

Slightly off topic but had a draft question for any gurus. Any given year teams draft players that they know they won't sign. It doesn't have a rhyme or reason in that they could plan to sign a player they draft later on than a player they have no intention on signing. What is the rationale for teams to punt a pick at certain points in the draft? Why not get the best players and then punt the remaining picks? Do teams really make those picks with some intention of signing them?

[gunnarthor]

 

Slightly off topic but had a draft question for any gurus. Any given year teams draft players that they know they won't sign. It doesn't have a rhyme or reason in that they could plan to sign a player they draft later on than a player they have no intention on signing. What is the rationale for teams to punt a pick at certain points in the draft? Why not get the best players and then punt the remaining picks? Do teams really make those picks with some intention of signing them?

The first 10 rounds are part of the draft pool so if you don't sign that pick, you lose that money, so no one wants to punt those picks. After the 10th round, teams will occasionally nab a guy - usually a high upside HS player - who they would like to sign but know they probably won't. After the 10th round, the team can offer 100k without penalty, plus any money they have saved from the draft pool. So a team might draft 4 guys in rounds 11-25 that they want to sign, knowing that one of them will probably take $350,000 but not sure which one. The other three, in this example, wouldn't sign.

 

There is nothing good about not signing a guy in the first 10 rounds but occasionally the team will draft him and then detect an injury - this most famously happened with Astros and Brady Aiken but cost the Twins a pick a few years ago in the third round when they drafted Kyle Cody (IIRC) and then found a problem with the arm. If the two sides don't come to an agreement, they lose the player and the money. For the Astros that meant they also lost a few extra potential signees and the Twins were rumored to have lost out on a later round player as well.

[beckmt]

 

I don't know why, but I thought his FB was 94-96. Looking around, it does seem to be about 93-95. I'd like more velocity also. Has anyone seen any games or seen any write ups about how long he holds his velocity into the game?

 

I do love sliders though, if it's truly a great pitch I still wouldn't write him off.

Sliders usually = TJ surgery at some point, makes it more risk.

[markos]

 

The first 10 rounds are part of the draft pool so if you don't sign that pick, you lose that money, so no one wants to punt those picks. After the 10th round, teams will occasionally nab a guy - usually a high upside HS player - who they would like to sign but know they probably won't. After the 10th round, the team can offer 100k without penalty, plus any money they have saved from the draft pool. So a team might draft 4 guys in rounds 11-25 that they want to sign, knowing that one of them will probably take $350,000 but not sure which one. The other three, in this example, wouldn't sign.

 

There is nothing good about not signing a guy in the first 10 rounds but occasionally the team will draft him and then detect an injury - this most famously happened with Astros and Brady Aiken but cost the Twins a pick a few years ago in the third round when they drafted Kyle Cody (IIRC) and then found a problem with the arm. If the two sides don't come to an agreement, they lose the player and the money. For the Astros that meant they also lost a few extra potential signees and the Twins were rumored to have lost out on a later round player as well.

This pretty much sums it up. One small addition: Teams will pick a HS player with one of their 11+ round picks that they know won't sign as a small goodwill gesture. The HS player may have declared that he is going to college no matter what, but by select the player the team is basically signalling "hey, we know you're going to college, but we think you're a good player and would like you in our system someday." Usually it amounts to nothing more than some good publicity. A recent example is when the Twins drafted local HS pitcher Logan Shore in the 29th round.

[Thrylos]

 

The Twins need a power arm starter.

Enough with this 90-92 fastball pitch to contact crap we've been forced to watch the past 10 years. 

Faedo sits 92-95... not that he's a bad pitcher but I don't think he's what the Twins should be looking for.

 

 

If his name was not Alex Faedo, but Jacob deGrom, what would you think?  Would you draft Jacob deGrom over Greene?

[Pitz]

 

If his name was not Alex Faedo, but Jacob deGrom, what would you think?  Would you draft Jacob deGrom over Greene?

Is Alex Faedo considering changing his name to Jacob deGrom? That would be kind of weird, but to each his own I guess. I'm not sure what the Twins scouts will think of this name change. What kinds of questions will it raise about his makeup?

 

[twinsfanstreif]

My biggest concern on Faedo is his durability. He's already had injuries in his career and his mechanics suggest to me that he will continue to have injury concerns. You can't make too much of an impact of you can't stay on the field. I said it last year when Matuella was being considered at the top of the draft and then sure enough he got hurt and fell in the draft

[GP830]

 

If his name was not Alex Faedo, but Jacob deGrom, what would you think?  Would you draft Jacob deGrom over Greene?

Is your argument that you believe Faedo will be a DeGrom clone at the big league level? 

[Willihammer]

He's only a sophomore but the ACC player of the week was GA Tech catcher Joey Bart. 5 home runs in 17 AB's.

http://www.ramblinwreck.com/sports/m-basebl/spec-rel/030617aaa.html

[markos]

 

If his name was not Alex Faedo, but Jacob deGrom, what would you think?  Would you draft Jacob deGrom over Greene?

Can you elaborate your point a little bit? I'm not sure I follow...

[gunnarthor]

Sickel's write up on Kendell - http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/3/6/14814248/jeren-kendall-of-vanderbilt-2017-mlb-draft-report

 

Pros: Fast, good defender, good make up

Cons: real questions about the bat. Did really poorly with wood bats in a SSS.

[Thrylos]

 

Is your argument that you believe Faedo will be a DeGrom clone at the big league level? 

 

Yes.  Very similar stuff and velocities...

[Thrylos]

 

Can you elaborate your point a little bit? I'm not sure I follow...

 

Alex Faedo is a lot like Jacob deGrom as far as stuff goes.  Matter of fact for their respectable ages, he might be ahead of where deGrom was. (Here is a comparison of their NCAA numbers)

 

[Mike Sixel]

Sam
12:07 Do you have a top five for the upcoming draft? How does the overall talent pool compare to last year?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:09 Will have a formal board up after the lists are done but Faedo, Greene, Wright, Kendall, Lewis and DL Hall are up there for me right now. It's about the same, talent-wise, as last year but it's composed much differently.

[markos]

 

Alex Faedo is a lot like Jacob deGrom as far as stuff goes.  Matter of fact for their respectable ages, he might be ahead of where deGrom was. (Here is a comparison of their NCAA numbers)

deGrom has averaged 95mph on his fastball over the past three seasons, which put him in the top-20of all starters during that time. From everything I've read, Faedo isn't close to averaging that right now, and he is only throwing once a week instead of every five days. Maybe Faedo could get there, but it is more likely that his stuff takes a step back when transitioning to pro-ball.

[gunnarthor]

 

Sam
12:07 Do you have a top five for the upcoming draft? How does the overall talent pool compare to last year?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:09 Will have a formal board up after the lists are done but Faedo, Greene, Wright, Kendall, Lewis and DL Hall are up there for me right now. It's about the same, talent-wise, as last year but it's composed much differently.

Is this in order or just random? Because Faedo ahead of Greene is somewhat surprising at this point.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Is this in order or just random? Because Faedo ahead of Greene is somewhat surprising at this point.

 

Given what he's typed before, I'm guessing random. He's been clear, in previous chats, that it is too early to say an order, but that there are some guys with better potential.

[Thrylos]

 

deGrom has averaged 95mph on his fastball over the past three seasons, which put him in the top-20of all starters during that time. From everything I've read, Faedo isn't close to averaging that right now, and he is only throwing once a week instead of every five days. Maybe Faedo could get there, but it is more likely that his stuff takes a step back when transitioning to pro-ball.

 

deGrom averaged 93.5 mph in 2014 and 2016, 95 mph in 2015.  Data here.

deGrom averaged 89-94 mph in College, then moved to 93-95 in the pros.  Data here (scroll)

Faedo last season averaged 92-95. Data here, and here (actually Sickels says it "gets higher")

 

Their sliders are very similar and they are both devastating, thus the comparison.

 

College pitchers usually gain a tick or two in the pros, maybe more, so there is no reason for Faedo to average 95 in the pros.