Keep Berrios Expectations in Check

[Brandon Warne]

Wrote a Jose Berrios feature in which I preach caution. As always, thoughtful discussion appreciated: https://t.co/Io8hMGXN82

[kab21]

My expectations are tempered by his dreadful debut last year. 

Unfortunately the reality of the Twins rotation is that he needs to throw a 4.00 ERA (or lower) for them to have any shot at a winning record or contend for the wild card. I don't care if they currently have a winning record without him. They have Tepesch and Hughes in the rotation. So my expectations due to need are a tad higher. It would be really nice if there really wasn't any pressure on him and he could just slide into the #5 spot.

[DocBauer]

A good read and salient points. And Berrios IS still very young. And it's clear, to me at least and supported by your information, that this is not simply a control issue. The team has simply wanted to work on certain areas of his game, though they haven't exactly informed us as to what that might be.

 

But even with his youth, his stuff seems pretty real, his milb dominance has been real, he has shown the ability to make adjustments at each level, and his desire and work ethic are outstanding. There comes a point where he simply needs to grow and learn at the ML level. Experienced or not, Gibson was afforded quite a bit of time this season to prove himself. Berrios deserves at least as much.

 

Can Berrios become a #1 starter someday. I don't know. Nobody does. I have seen so many top, sure-fire future top of the rotation starters flame out and other "solid" guys become 1's and 2's that I don't think there is any kind of reliable prognostic tool.

 

But I know I wouldn't bet against him become a top starter. Let's just not be forlorn if it doesn't happen this season.

[Mike Sixel]

Very well written. Not a fan of the appeal to authority at the end...

 

Since we can't scout these guys, just taking the word of the organization that has utterly failed at pitching trading and developing and drafting lately seems like a lot to ask.

[Brandon Warne]

It's not the same guys, though. 

[Mike Sixel]

It's not the same guys, though.

Other than the top, it is the same coaches and scouts, right? A few changes, but not many. Either way, still s "we don't know anything, and have to trust them" argument was made. Look, I thought it was really well written and thought out. I hate appeals to authority.

[Brandon Warne]

All good. I understand. 

[Mike Sixel]

Want to be really clear, I loved it all but that part. I do enjoy when you go deep like that.

[Brandon Warne]

I understand the logical fallacy part of it, too. Rather than an appeal to authority, I just want to make clear that I'm also aware how little I know about pitching in the grand scheme of things. 

[Mike Sixel]

I understand the logical fallacy part of it, too. Rather than an appeal to authority, I just want to make clear that I'm also aware how little I know about pitching in the grand scheme of things.

Good viewpoint, actually. I will try to read it that way next time. Good idea. Thanks

[Brock Beauchamp]

Other than the top, it is the same coaches and scouts, right? A few changes, but not many. Either way, still s "we don't know anything, and have to trust them" argument was made. Look, I thought it was really well written and thought out. I hate appeals to authority.

I know you hate appeals to authority but society can't function without them. I haven't done the legwork on climate change so I take the experts' word for it. We don't need to believe everything told to us but picking and choosing is a delicate process, lest we fall into a confirmation bias echo chamber.

[drjim]

And it wasn't even really an appeal to authority anyways (at least in the logical fallacy sense).

[Mike Sixel]

And it wasn't even really an appeal to authority anyways (at least in the logical fallacy sense).

Agreed.

[Mike Sixel]

I know you hate appeals to authority but society can't function without them. I haven't done the legwork on climate change so I take the experts' word for it. We don't need to believe everything told to us but picking and choosing is a delicate process, lest we fall into a confirmation bias echo chamber.

Also a good point.

[drjim]

I know you hate appeals to authority but society can't function without them. I haven't done the legwork on climate change so I take the experts' word for it. We don't need to believe everything told to us but picking and choosing is a delicate process, lest we fall into a confirmation bias echo chamber.

Perhaps an argument can be made that recent actions suggest we could use a few more appeals to authority as a basis for knowledge and understanding.

[drjim]

Anyways, good article. Don't have much to add, but that was a sobering list on the swinging strike rate.

[Mike Sixel]

I think believing 99% of scientists is different than believing this organization when it comes to pitching, but I give.... You all have convinced me to be more understanding? Forgiving? Trusting? Not sure the right word...

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think believing 99% of scientists is different than believing this organization when it comes to pitching, but I give.... You all have convinced me to be more understanding? Forgiving? Trusting? Not sure the right word...

For the time being, I'd call it deference. When more information is available, judgment and/or opinion will come. We simply know too little about the process or objectives right now.

 

Remember, the guy in charge of this organization was credited for building the AL championship pitching staff last season. Either we believe he lucked out or we're missing something here.

[jimbo92107]

In situations like this, I like to ask my kids, what's the worst that can happen? 

 

Well, I suppose the worst that can happen is that the very first guy hits a home run on your very first pitch. Okay, so you pitch to the next guy. And he hits a home run on the very first pitch. 

 

Okay, so that's not too likely, you tell yourself. Yet, on the very next pitch, that guy hits a home run, too. And so on, right through the order. Very embarrassing. 

 

But wait, there's more! Just before your steaming manager jumps out of the dugout to strangle you, you feel that horrible pop in your elbow, and every Twins fan knows what that means. You exit the game holding your throwing arm, heading straight for the nearest ambulance. 

 

On the way to the hospital, your ambulance gets t-boned by a gasoline truck, which blows up, killing everybody.

 

Okay kid, go out there and compete! It probably won't be that bad!

[AlwaysinModeration]

In situations like this, I like to ask my kids, what's the worst that can happen?

 

Well, I suppose the worst that can happen is that the very first guy hits a home run on your very first pitch. Okay, so you pitch to the next guy. And he hits a home run on the very first pitch.

 

Okay, so that's not too likely, you tell yourself. Yet, on the very next pitch, that guy hits a home run, too. And so on, right through the order. Very embarrassing.

 

But wait, there's more! Just before your steaming manager jumps out of the dugout to strangle you, you feel that horrible pop in your elbow, and every Twins fan knows what that means. You exit the game holding your throwing arm, heading straight for the nearest ambulance.

 

On the way to the hospital, your ambulance gets t-boned by a gasoline truck, which blows up, killing everybody.

 

Okay kid, go out there and compete! It probably won't be that bad!

Well, I hope not.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Brandon, I really appreciate the points you made and the call to tempered expectations.

Good data, helpful analysis.

Pretty much just what I expect of your articles.

Thank you

[HitInAPinch]

Again, very well written article and insight.

 

Count me as a firm "Hold" on Berrios.  I learned a long time ago to not pay too much attention to MiLB stats.  Remember Willie Banks?  Boy, did I get caught up in the static on that one.       

 

I've looked at some of the videos of Berrios pitching and, yeah, he looks different on the mound. Delivery looks more consistent.  Still believe in his future as a MLB pitcher.

 

Anyway, I look at this as just another step in his development.  I don't believe that Falvey has been able to fully integrate the MN MiLB with the "Cleveland Way" of pitching development.  Berrios is a 1st sample case.  And I'm hopeful that Twins on-field staff has recognized their bad handling of Berrios and Meyer in Houston and don't leave Berrios out to slaughter again.  

[jorgenswest]

Now that they have made the assessment that he is ready, I hope he will get a long look regardless of results. His turn comes up 11 or 12 times prior to the all star break. As long as he remains healthy, I hope there is no thought to returning him to AAA until at least the all star break.

 

How long would you let him go if he is struggling?

[bighat]

I think this article is kind of a safety valve for fans and writers alike.  Us Minnesotans aren't comfortable with getting our hopes up.  We fear diasppointment.  So we put on the breaks prematurely and start making emotional Plan B's. Just in case.  

 

It's almost like we're so afraid of him getting blasted that we're already hedging our bets.  I for one hope he gives the Indians hell today.  I'm excited.  I'll also be ticked off if he gives up 8 runs in 3 innings.  Doesn't mean my expectaions are unrealistic.  Just unapologetically hopeful!  

[Twinsbar107]

I predict he throws a perfect game, did I win?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

This is a better environment for Berrios than last season, in almost every respect. One or two starts might not tell the story but I think he will do well and contribute. I am fired up!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I predict he throws a perfect game, did I win?

Buxton saves at least one extra base hit today that would have fallen last year, but I do think he issues a couple of walks, so maybe tone it down and only predict a no-hitter?

[Badsmerf]

I have high expectations and I'm assuming he does as well. There is nothing wrong with that. Greatness is one thing, quality is another. If he is less than quality I will be disappointed. He doesn't even have to be consistent, just league average is fine at this point.

[Doomtints]

 

  Still believe in his future as a MLB pitcher.

 

One wonders why you would believe otherwise with a small sample size?

[TheLeviathan]

Nice start today!