Article: Report From The Fort: Studying Santana

[John Bonnes]

Ervin Santana was comparatively fantastic last year. His 3.38 ERA might not seem remarkable, until you realize that the rest of the Twins’ rotation’s combined ERA was 5.91.

 

Blink. Blink. That is such a stunning number, I’ll repeat it: the combined ERA of the starting staff last year, not including Ervin Santana, was close to 6.So, it might make a little sense to study Ervin Santana, especially given that he should be returning to the Twins spring training rotation soon, if not today. The problem with that is that I’m no expert when it comes to pitching. I get all mixed up about which way a 2-seam fastball moves versus a 4-seam fastball, or a slider versus a sinker versus a cutter.

 

So I’m going to rely heavily on FanGraphs to provide some basic data and be transparent about what I know and don’t know. Maybe you, dear reader, can fill in the blanks in the section below. I’m not ashamed to groupthink this stuff. Indeed, that’s the point of the site.

 

Per Fan Graph’s high level Pitch F/X data on Santana, he relies a great deal on two pitches with a third thrown in occasionally. Last year, he threw:

• His fastball 53% of the time, which is a little less than he has in his career (56%).
• His slider 39% of the time, which is a little more than he has in his career (36%).
• His changeup 8% of the time, which is about what he’s done in his career, but a little less than the last two years.

So over 90% of the time he’s relying on his fastball and his slider and only rarely going to his changeup. I found that interesting, because many starting pitchers are criticized for being “only two-pitch pitchers.” For instance, that’s the narrative on Tyler Duffey, who relies on a fastball (53% in 2016), a curveball (39%) and worked to mix in a changeup (7%). Those ratios, including the changeup, nearly match Santana’s.

 

So let’s see what those pitches do. From FanGraph’s excellent Pitch F/X Game Charts view, here is the movement.

 

Blue = Fastball

Orange also = fastball (officially a 2-seam vs a 4-seam)

Green = Changeup

Black = Slider

 

Download attachment: Santana movement chart.png

 

The 0,0 mark is where the ball would end up if it was thrown without any spin. So the fastball (blue/orange) drifts a little left and stays a little higher (because it has some upspin) than it would than if it had no spin at all. The changeup does the same thing, which is handy when it looks like a fastball, but again, Santana doesn’t throw it very often.

 

The slider moves to the right, maybe up a little, but not nearly as much as the fastball. You can see why it would be a pretty good complementary pitch to the fastball.

 

Let’s go back to the fastball and changeup, which end up with about the same movement. Here is another chart from that FanGraph’s page that shows the movement horizontally, but the velocity is on the vertical axis.

 

Download attachment: Santana velocity movement chart.png

 

Yup, the changeup ends up in about the same movement, but seven miles per hour slower. Incidentally, the slider has about the same velocity, but moves the other direction from it.

 

I can’t find any breakdown of when Santana likes to throw these pitches. I’d be particularly interested to see how often he throws each against left-handed hitters versus right-handed hitters. Just from the data, I suspect the changeup is used a lot more versus left-handed hitters, who had a slightly lower OPS against the right-handed Santana last year than right-handed hitters.

 

Is any of this what makes Santana successful? My best guess is he just has a pretty good fastball and two pitches that vary enough to give hitters that split second of hesitation. But it’ll be more fun to watch his next outing and see if I can see what he’s trying to do.

 

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[Old Twins Cap]

Mariano Rivera had all of one pitch. 

 

My thesis would be:  quality -- meaning location/velocity/movement -- wins out over other factors, including variety, when it comes to pitching.

 

With Santana, it may also include deception because of how smooth and easy is his delivery, and how quickly the ball arrives at the plate.

[Han Joelo]

Nice catch on the Santana/Duffy comp.  I too, know nothing (about pitching) John Bonnes.  I literally can't throw a ball, at 40 mph max, and be reasonably be confident of hitting the broad side of a barn.  Analyzing pitching is akin to splitting atoms for me.  And probably for the experts, too.

[drjim]

I wonder if starters relying heavily on 2 pitches (~90%) is somewhat common. As you said, it can be successful with great command, but there still has to be the threat of a 3rd pitch. Santana needs a change to be able to combat lefties.

 

The issue with a fastball/breaking ball combo is it creates problems against opposite side hitters. If Duffey is going to be a successful starter over the long run, he needs the threat of a third pitch against lefties. A slow and harder curveball (assuming command) would be very effective against righties.

[Nick Nelson]

Not exactly on topic, but here's one of the most bizarre stats of the 2016 Minnesota Twins season for me. 

 

Only four pitchers made 20+ starts for the Twins. Here's the team's record in those respective games started by each pitcher.

 

Kyle Gibson starts: 12-13

Tyler Duffey starts: 11-15

Ricky Nolasco starts: 9-12

Ervin Santana starts: 8-22

 

Starting pitching was (rightfully) pointed to as the primary source of the team's woes. Yet, with their only half-decent starter on the mound, they were vastly worse than with greatly inferior options.

 

Holy cow I can't believe they played .267 ball behind Erv with the way he pitched, that had to be frustrating. They owe him big-time this year.

[Linus]

Duffeys problem is his fastball. It sits around 90 and the command is inconsistent. Unless he is lights out with his curve good hitters just wait on the fastball.

[adorduan]

Frankly, I think this is all about command of the fastball.  If you can consistently hit your spots with even an average fastball, you are going to have some success.  Santana's seems to sit at 92-94, which I would say is a little above average. His delivery seems pretty effortless, which is probably a little deceiving also.

[d-mac]

 

I wonder if starters relying heavily on 2 pitches (~90%) is somewhat common. As you said, it can be successful with great command, but there still has to be the threat of a 3rd pitch. Santana needs a change to be able to combat lefties.

 

The issue with a fastball/breaking ball combo is it creates problems against opposite side hitters. If Duffey is going to be a successful starter over the long run, he needs the threat of a third pitch against lefties. A slow and harder curveball (assuming command) would be very effective against righties.

 

His composition of fastball%, breaking ball%, changeup% is not statistically different than Santana's. Duffey also has a pretty significant reverse platoon split over his career: 3.14 xFIP vs LHH and 4.53 vs RHH (3.25 and 4.61 in 2016, respectively), nearly doubles his K/BB ratio vs LHH and RHH have nearly a 100 point increase in wOBA vs lefties. 

 

Most successful mid-rotation major league starting pitchers generally have 2 above average to plus pitches and average to above average command. Third and fourth pitches are generally only "show me" type pitches to keep hitters honest and are rarely even major league average in quality.

 

We needn't look any further than the other Santana that pitched for the Twins to see this. In 2007, the only year that pitch f/x is available on fangraphs and Johan's last year with us, he threw a 4-seamer 63.9% of the time, his famed change-up 26% and his slider only 10.1% of the time. If the average PA lasts only 4-5 pitches then he is throwing his third pitch, the slider, at most once every other PA. And Johan was the definition of an ace type pitcher, not merely a mid-rotation type.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Frankly, I think this is all about command of the fastball.  If you can consistently hit your spots with even an average fastball, you are going to have some success.  Santana's seems to sit at 92-94, which I would say is a little above average. His delivery seems pretty effortless, which is probably a little deceiving also.

Yeah, he has a very good slider and that helps. But he also commands the fastball and mixes in the 2-seamer very well. He introduced that pitch to his arsenal in 2013 I believe and has had really good results ever since, with a notable improvement in terms of limiting home runs. 

 

 

[drjim]

Johan pitch split came to mind too, but he had elite command and an elite changeup, so I thought it was an unfair comparison.

 

Your deeper dive does give some hope for Duffey that if he can tighten up his fastball command he could absolutely be an effective mid-rotation starter.

 

The reverse split surprises me, I would like to see a larger sample.

[bluechipper]

The difference between Santana and Duffey's 2 pitch mix is that it's probably easier to recognize the difference between a big curveball and a fastball than it is for a slider vs a fastball.

[Parker Hageman]

One of the things that jumps out about Santana's 2016 season is how much more he was able to coax hitters to swing at fastball out of the strike zone. 

 

OOZ Sw% 2012 - 18.9

OOZ Sw% 2013 - 21.6

OOZ Sw% 2014 - 24.6

OOZ Sw% 2015 - 20.0

OOZ Sw% 2016 - 27.2

 

Threw a few more fastballs off the plate. A lot of hitters made contact with those but they weren't square. 

 

[Dave The Dastardly]

Cool stuff! I'm now smarter about pitching. Probably grade out around a D-, but I'm an old dog. Which means I won't remember any of this stuff tomorrow morning. Just like how I'm having trouble remembering how badly the Twins pitching staff sucked last year.

 

Anybody seen my season ticket application? I think I started to fill one out...

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

One of the things that jumps out about Santana's 2016 season is how much more he was able to coax hitters to swing at fastball out of the strike zone. 

 

OOZ Sw% 2012 - 18.9

OOZ Sw% 2013 - 21.6

OOZ Sw% 2014 - 24.6

OOZ Sw% 2015 - 20.0

OOZ Sw% 2016 - 27.2

 

Threw a few more fastballs off the plate. A lot of hitters made contact with those but they weren't square. 

 

Just looking at those numbers, it's trending up too....  2015 looks more like an aberration.  I don't have the eye to really say, but I wonder if his command is good enough to stay near the corners, and he can get a late break on his pitch forcing a swing.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Cool stuff! I'm now smarter about pitching. Probably grade out around a D-, but I'm an old dog. Which means I won't remember any of this stuff tomorrow morning. Just like how I'm having trouble remembering how badly the Twins pitching staff sucked last year.

 

Anybody seen my season ticket application? I think I started to fill one out...

 

I think most of us call this a blackout.

[goulik]

I never pitched baseball but in softball I pitched a lot. location, pitch selection (I had 4 different spins including a knuckleball) and knowing the batter mattered a lot while throwing extremely easy to hit slow pitch softballs. If I knew what the batter wanted to do, I didn't give him those pitches. Much the way pitchers stopped throwing Dozier inside for half a season.

 

I know everyone (even my mom) is ripping me in their mind for a slow pitch softball/MLB comparison but the point is, controlling the situation by knowing where to pitch and actually putting that pitch in that spot is the biggest trait of a successful pitcher IMHO.

[goulik]

BTW, I had a wicked, unhittable curve ball/fastball combo in whiffle ball but I walked a lot of hitters...

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Just looking at those numbers, it's trending up too.... 2015 looks more like an aberration. I don't have the eye to really say, but I wonder if his command is good enough to stay near the corners, and he can get a late break on his pitch forcing a swing.

2015 was also the return from suspension mid-season. When everyone else is already at top speed it takes a while to catch up.

 

My recollection (cuz I'm too lazy on Sunday morning to look it up) was Santana looked bad his first couple starts and the pitch forks and torches were out in the forums here. By the end of the season TR looked like a genius. I'd guess a more studious fan could chart his OOZ swing rate by start that season to see well below career at the beginning and well above at the end, average 20% because he didn't have enough starts raise the average up to 2014/2016 is levels

Edited March 26, 2017 by Sconnie