Bark's 2017 MN Twins OF Insanity

[dgwills]

Nice post. I love the optimism and share it. Sky's the limit for these guys. Perhaps we should start a go fund me page for more padding on the outfield walls though?

[Eris]

 

 I think that the best thing the Twins can do for Grossman is to give him a first baseman's glove and see if he can handle that position.  Because his moves are Hrbek-like.   

Jim Kaat had described Hrbek as the greatest defensive first baseman he has seen.  Somewhere along the way I remember Kent Hrbek attributing his defensive skills to being a hockey goalie at Bloomington Kennedy High.  However, I could not find information on the internet to reference for this comment.  Your comments about moving Grossman out of the outfield have a lot of merit as this is an example of a good offensive player hurting his team with very/extremely bad defense.  

 

Do we understand what Grossman's problem is (other than he was close to the worst defensive outfielder).  Others have gone from bad defensively to good with a lot of work.  Is there any hope for Grossman?

[Halsey Hall]

The new FO must be paying attention to bark as the 3 outfielders were taken by cart far away from the rest of the team this morning to make a commercial.  Soon coming to your area.

[Bark's Lounge]

 

The new FO must be paying attention to bark as the 3 outfielders were taken by cart far away from the rest of the team this morning to make a commercial.  Soon coming to your area.

Thanks for throwing that out there Halsey. As everyone knows on this site, my baseball acumen and influence in the MN Twins Baseball Community is unquestioned. I am the Oracle of Twins Baseball.

 

It's great that the Twins Org took my words to heart and to head, and I will kindly bill them after I see this commercial.

[adorduan]

 

What if Zack Granite were the 4th OF instead of Grossman. That OF would be fast, with good arms. Good OF defense makes for better pitching. DEEE FENSE!

Well, they will probably get a lot of work running to pick up ground balls that went through the left side of the infield...

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

What if Zack Granite were the 4th OF instead of Grossman. That OF would be fast, with good arms. Good OF defense makes for better pitching. DEEE FENSE!

Actually, I like the idea of going bat-first with the fourth outfielder if the young trio of starters can hack it through a full season. If one of them gets demoted, particularly Buxton, it quickly becomes a pretty bad situation.

 

Why do the Twins need a glove-first outfielder? They have one of the best defensive centerfielders in the game in Buxton, an acceptable occasional centerfielder in Rosario, and a guy you don't want to play in center but can in a pinch with Kepler.

 

And two of those guys are absolutely terrible against lefties. I think Grossman as backup is a pretty good idea on a roster construction level.

[Circus Boy]

 

Go Big or Go Home. It was my preseason pep talk. Come October, hopefully I won't be chased up the mountain like Frankenstein by TDer's.

 

"Werewolf."

"There... wolf!"

[Bill Brown69]

I hit the like button on Brock's above post BUT I think everyone here is a little too down on Kepler. He is still a little raw around the edges but I see him turning into a left handed version of Ellis Burks which isn't too shabby. Probably won't make it this year but 2018 will be the get noticed around the league year with even better things to follow.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I hit the like button on Brock's above post BUT I think everyone here is a little too down on Kepler. He is still a little raw around the edges but I see him turning into a left handed version of Ellis Burks which isn't too shabby. Probably won't make it this year but 2018 will be the get noticed around the league year with even better things to follow.

I'm very high on Kepler but even if he turns into a really good (say .850 OPS) player, it's likely he'll be, at best, mediocre against lefties.

 

Left-handed hitters generally have to be elite to hit opposing lefties at an above-average clip. Even a guy like Justin Morneau, who has a career .886 OPS against righties, hit just .710 in his career against lefties.

 

I wouldn't sit Kepler against all lefties but if I'm giving him a day off, I try to do it against a left-handed starter.

[Bill Brown69]

I agree that you use every off day for ANY left handed hitter against a lefty starter if at all possible. I was not a Gardy basher but that was my one issue with him and Mauer sitting a day game against a righty after playing a night game against a guy like Sale. (Sale may not have happened but you get the drift)

 

My point is that it seems like a lot of posters here have pegged Kepler as a .255-.270 guy with a little pop end of story. I don't think that the growing pains of adjusting last year mean we know what he can be. I see a guy fully capable (on his best years) of hitting .300 with 70 xbh and playing slightly above average D in right field. That would get national notice and I think he will get it, although probably not this year. I will predict this year at .278/ 33 2B/ 23HR.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I agree that you use every off day for ANY left handed hitter against a lefty starter if at all possible. I was not a Gardy basher but that was my one issue with him and Mauer sitting a day game against a righty after playing a night game against a guy like Sale. (Sale may not have happened but you get the drift)

 

My point is that it seems like a lot of posters here have pegged Kepler as a .255-.270 guy with a little pop end of story. I don't think that the growing pains of adjusting last year mean we know what he can be. I see a guy fully capable (on his best years) of hitting .300 with 70 xbh and playing slightly above average D in right field. That would get national notice and I think he will get it, although probably not this year. I will predict this year at .278/ 33 2B/ 23HR.

It's entirely possible Kepler will never hit for average but if I was to pick a young Twins player to cross .300 multiple times in his career, I'd probably choose Kepler. He's not a total spray hitter (like most players, he generates most of his power from pulling) but he does a pretty good job of playing the ball all around the field. Coupled with his discipline and general hitting smarts, I think it's possible he could cross the .300 mark a few times.

 

Rosario could do it as well through pure hitting talent, as could Polanco. I have little faith in either Buxton or Sano hitting for average (but could easily see Sano hitting .260 with a .380 OBP because pitchers are flat-out terrified of him).

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Actually, I like the idea of going bat-first with the fourth outfielder if the young trio of starters can hack it through a full season. If one of them gets demoted, particularly Buxton, it quickly becomes a pretty bad situation.

 

Why do the Twins need a glove-first outfielder? They have one of the best defensive centerfielders in the game in Buxton, an acceptable occasional centerfielder in Rosario, and a guy you don't want to play in center but can in a pinch with Kepler.

 

And two of those guys are absolutely terrible against lefties. I think Grossman as backup is a pretty good idea on a roster construction level.

Granite may meet your criteria as a batter also. In an article by Seth in August 2016, Granite stated he always hit left handed pitchers better. His splits in 2016 against RH pitchers were: .296/.348/.36 (749); against LH pitchers they were: .291/.345/.339/ (.684). His slugging against lefties was down, but the rest of his numbers  against lefties were surprisingly close to his numbers against RH pitchers. In 2015 against RH pitchers his splits were:.248/.322/.312 (.634) and against LH pitchers : .314/.421/.373 (.794). He would be an incredible pinch runner late in the game. Last year he had 56 steals in 72 attempts. With him on first base, the next batter would get more fastballs, because the catcher and pitcher would be worried about Granite dancing off first base. Granted he has very little power, but so does Grossman have little power. So our disagreement may come down to whether the Twins would benefit more from a fast,  good fielding OF, a gifted base stealer who hits lefties as well as he hits righties, who has no major league experience or a very poor fielding,  OF who has major league experience and who hits lefties well, but not righties. How often would the  Twins' opponent have a lefty pitching (way fewer lefties than righties) and how often would the Twins' opponent change pitchers to pitch a righty or lefty to Granite or Grossman. Not often  I would submit, because neither is going to hit it out of the park. Finally how often would Bux, Rosario, or Kepler need a rest for a  minor injury or just because they need a day off. or  because a tough lefty was starting for the Twins' opponent , thereby necessitating the Twins playing an admittedly poor fielding Grossman vs. a good fielding speedster like Granite?

[Platoon]

Working against Buxton hitting for high average would be if my memory is correct that after his most recent callup he was aggressively swinging for the fences almost all the time. With some success, I hasten to add.

What really is working against Buxton is he doesn't get to hit off of Twins pitching! Gotta cost you 5 points a year, minimum!

[Guest]

This is Grossman's last year on a rookie contract, so he'll be gone next year, unless he shows defensive improvement and consistent offense. He once was a well-regarded prospect and he still isn't old, but a month last year when he hit like Mike Trout is less indicative of his true talent level than his ROS offense. He's got the best shot to be the fourth outfielder, but his grip on the position may be weak.

 

With a flyball pitching staff and a non-elite infield defense, outfield defense is a premium need for the Twins. If Granite or English look good in the minors, Grossman could be a DFA unless he plays better than last year or one of the starters falls out or is injured.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

This is Grossman's last year on a rookie contract, so he'll be gone next year, unless he shows defensive improvement and consistent offense. He once was a well-regarded prospect and he still isn't old, but a month last year when he hit like Mike Trout is less indicative of his true talent level than his ROS offense. He's got the best shot to be the fourth outfielder, but his grip on the position may be weak.

With a flyball pitching staff and a non-elite infield defense, outfield defense is a premium need for the Twins. If Granite or English look good in the minors, Grossman could be a DFA unless he plays better than last year or one of the starters falls out or is injured.

It's probably fair to look a little deeper at Grossman's OF history.

 

In 2014 he inexplicably payed 40 innings in CF where he posted a -3 DRS and an impressive -127.8 UZR/150. For the season, in spite of his CF numbers, he posted a DRS of 6 and a UZR/150 of 8.0 (per FanGraphs). In 2015 he posted a -1 DRS and a 0.4 UZR/150.

 

It seems that there is a good chance that he really cannot be as bad in the outfield as we saw last year. At least, that's my hope.

 

* It is also interesting to note that Grossman played 2.0 innings in CF for the Twins last year. Opposing players, considering this a slap in the face, refused to hit any baseballs to him. (Thank you Lord)

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think you all understand how rare it is to hit .300 anymore.....I wouldn't bet on any twin doing it more than one or two times in a career.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't think you all understand how rare it is to hit .300 anymore.....I wouldn't bet on any twin doing it more than one or two times in a career.

Neither would I. When I said Kepler is the one with the best chance to do it "multiple times", I really meant "maybe 1-3 times if everything goes right".

 

Hitting .300 in today's game is really tough, though the strike zone change might help averages around the league tick up a bit. If a pitcher can't work at or just below the knees and have it be called a strike, that both allows batters to hold up on those pitches and make contact with pitches that won't be driven into the dirt.

[Bark's Lounge]

 

I don't think you all understand how rare it is to hit .300 anymore.....I wouldn't bet on any twin doing it more than one or two times in a career.

The game goes through different phases. I'm not saying you are wrong, but I am not sold on that as of yet.

 

Pitchers are throwing harder it seems the last 5 years, and the batting philosophies have changed, but baseball has a constant evolution and I don't think I can be one anymore, who believes in a dominant era for one area of the game.

 

It can all change by the flip of a switch. New ideas, and techniques are constantly being toyed with and implemented.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The game goes through different phases. I'm not saying you are wrong, but I am not sold on that as of yet.

 

Pitchers are throwing harder it seems the last 5 years, and the batting philosophies have changed, but baseball has a constant evolution and I don't think I can be one anymore, who believes in a dominant era for one area of the game.

 

It can all change by the flip of a switch. New ideas, and techniques are constantly being toyed with and implemented.

 

AGree with all that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Granite may meet your criteria as a batter also. In an article by Seth in August 2016, Granite stated he always hit left handed pitchers better. His splits in 2016 against RH pitchers were: .296/.348/.36 (749); against LH pitchers they were: .291/.345/.339/ (.684). His slugging against lefties was down, but the rest of his numbers  against lefties were surprisingly close to his numbers against RH pitchers. In 2015 against RH pitchers his splits were:.248/.322/.312 (.634) and against LH pitchers : .314/.421/.373 (.794). He would be an incredible pinch runner late in the game. Last year he had 56 steals in 72 attempts. With him on first base, the next batter would get more fastballs, because the catcher and pitcher would be worried about Granite dancing off first base. Granted he has very little power, but so does Grossman have little power. So our disagreement may come down to whether the Twins would benefit more from a fast,  good fielding OF, a gifted base stealer who hits lefties as well as he hits righties, who has no major league experience or a very poor fielding,  OF who has major league experience and who hits lefties well, but not righties. How often would the  Twins' opponent have a lefty pitching (way fewer lefties than righties) and how often would the Twins' opponent change pitchers to pitch a righty or lefty to Granite or Grossman. Not often  I would submit, because neither is going to hit it out of the park. Finally how often would Bux, Rosario, or Kepler need a rest for a  minor injury or just because they need a day off. or  because a tough lefty was starting for the Twins' opponent , thereby necessitating the Twins playing an admittedly poor fielding Grossman vs. a good fielding speedster like Granite?

Zach Granite is a 23 year old player with a career MiLB OPS of .703. He's coming off his best season, where he posted a .729 OPS in AA. That's barely even a mediocre number, much less a good one.

 

If you think that guy can step in and even come close to Grossman's MLB performance with the stick, you're throwing a Hail Mary. And we've seen first-hand what usually happens to MLB teams when they throw multiple Hail Marys at a roster. It ends badly. There is nothing to indicate Granite would be an acceptable hitter in Major League Baseball. He can barely hit minor league pitching.

 

Byron Buxton had an .881 OPS in the minors and could barely hit .600 in his first few stints in MLB.

 

Grossman had a .771 MiLB OPS and scuffled a bit his first few years in MLB.

 

It's more likely Granite would post an OPS of .500 than it is he'd post an OPS of .700. And, at that point, it doesn't matter how good he is defensively, that's crippling to an MLB team.

 

Besides, if you want Granite to turn out to be a decent MLB backup, you let him play through in Rochester and look toward 2018. He's not the kind of guy you rush to the majors because he doesn't have the talent for it. He's not dominating his current levels; hell, most of the time he's barely treading water.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Zach Granite is a 23 year old player with a career MiLB OPS of .703. He's coming off his best season, where he posted a .729 OPS in AA. That's barely even a mediocre number, much less a good one.

 

If you think that guy can step in and even come close to Grossman's MLB performance with the stick, you're throwing a Hail Mary. And we've seen first-hand what usually happens to MLB teams when they throw multiple Hail Marys at a roster. It ends badly. There is nothing to indicate Granite would be an acceptable hitter in Major League Baseball. He can barely hit minor league pitching.

 

Byron Buxton had an .881 OPS in the minors and could barely hit .600 in his first few stints in MLB.

 

Grossman had a .771 MiLB OPS and scuffled a bit his first few years in MLB.

 

It's more likely Granite would post an OPS of .500 than it is he'd post an OPS of .700. And, at that point, it doesn't matter how good he is defensively, that's crippling to an MLB team.

 

Besides, if you want Granite to turn out to be a decent MLB backup, you let him play through in Rochester and look toward 2018. He's not the kind of guy you rush to the majors because he doesn't have the talent for it. He's not dominating his current levels; hell, most of the time he's barely treading water.

Touche. You have made some really good points here. I guess I was placing too much emphasis on Twins Daily having selected  Granite the Twins' 2016 Minor League All Star center fielder.

[ScottyB]

Can we really not find a better fourth outfielder than Robbie Grossman?  Spring training has begun, why don't the Twins offer Coco Crisp a minor league deal.  I'd much prefer his experience and defense to Grossman.  After all Grossman isn't Josh Willingham (acceptable poor defense for a 35 homer bat).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Can we really not find a better fourth outfielder than Robbie Grossman?  Spring training has begun, why don't the Twins offer Coco Crisp a minor league deal.  I'd much prefer his experience and defense to Grossman.  After all Grossman isn't Josh Willingham (acceptable poor defense for a 35 homer bat).

Hard to say. Grossman was roughly an average corner outfielder in Houston. He was a terrible fielder with the Twins.

 

Which is the real Grossman? Dunno.

[Guest]

Zach Granite is a 23 year old player with a career MiLB OPS of .703. He's coming off his best season, where he posted a .729 OPS in AA. That's barely even a mediocre number, much less a good one.

 

If you think that guy can step in and even come close to Grossman's MLB performance with the stick, you're throwing a Hail Mary. And we've seen first-hand what usually happens to MLB teams when they throw multiple Hail Marys at a roster. It ends badly. There is nothing to indicate Granite would be an acceptable hitter in Major League Baseball. He can barely hit minor league pitching.

 

Byron Buxton had an .881 OPS in the minors and could barely hit .600 in his first few stints in MLB.

 

Grossman had a .771 MiLB OPS and scuffled a bit his first few years in MLB.

 

It's more likely Granite would post an OPS of .500 than it is he'd post an OPS of .700. And, at that point, it doesn't matter how good he is defensively, that's crippling to an MLB team.

 

Besides, if you want Granite to turn out to be a decent MLB backup, you let him play through in Rochester and look toward 2018. He's not the kind of guy you rush to the majors because he doesn't have the talent for it. He's not dominating his current levels; hell, most of the time he's barely treading water.

All good points. I expect Grossman to be the fourth outfielder to start the year and Granite to get a chance to solidify his skills in AAA. However, it's like the joke about the guy running from the bear. His buddy says, "Why are you running? You can't outrun a bear." To which the runner says, "I don't have to outrun the bear. I just need to outrun you." All Granite needs to do is outrun Grossman, and his elite batting eye and speed, along with a good contact rate and defense, gives him a real shot to do so by the end of the year, if he proves himself in AAA.

[Vanimal46]

 

It's more likely Granite would post an OPS of .500 than it is he'd post an OPS of .700. And, at that point, it doesn't matter how good he is defensively, that's crippling to an MLB team.

 

I generally agree with this if Granite was getting every day at-bats in 2017. If he was used sparingly as a 4th OF getting  ~200 PA's, then he may finish in the .600-.650 range.  I think his role for the next couple of seasons is a 4th OF anyway, so he could jump into that role barring injury or ineffectiveness from Grossman. 

 

Side note: Isn't Granite what we all hope and dream D Santana would be? A guy who can get a few hits, take a walk, steal bases effectively, and be versatile out in the field? 

[Loosey]

 

Do you remember Delmon Young?   He was a better defender than Grossman and at a younger age.  That's Grossman.  I think that the best thing the Twins can do for Grossman is to give him a first baseman's glove and see if he can handle that position.  Because his moves are Hrbek-like.   On the other hand, I think that Vargas is ahead of Grossman with the glove there as well.  Maybe the RH platoon against LHP as a DH with Vargas playing 1B and Mauer sitting. 

 

As far as the other 3 go, here is kinda where I think they will be next season:

 

Buxton: .266/.332/.467, 18 HR, 28 SB
Kepler: .267/.342/.453, 19 HR, 10 SB
Rosario: .270/.299/.419, 13 HR, 10 SB

I would kill for those numbers.  A super young OF with a line of .268/.324/.446 50 HR 48 SB as a group.  Plus most likely exceptional defense.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I generally agree with this if Granite was getting every day at-bats in 2017. If he was used sparingly as a 4th OF getting  ~200 PA's, then he may finish in the .600-.650 range.  I think his role for the next couple of seasons is a 4th OF anyway, so he could jump into that role barring injury or ineffectiveness from Grossman. 

 

Side note: Isn't Granite what we all hope and dream D Santana would be? A guy who can get a few hits, take a walk, steal bases effectively, and be versatile out in the field? 

Sure, I like the idea of Granite rotating into the fourth outfield position but we're talking about a guy who has struggled to post an OPS of .700 for most of his minor league career, a guy who hasn't taken an at-bat in AAA yet.

 

Is that the guy we want to rush? Remember what happened to Aaron Hicks, a vastly superior hitter to Granite.

[bluechipper]

Sure, I like the idea of Granite rotating into the fourth outfield position but we're talking about a guy who has struggled to post an OPS of .700 for most of his minor league career, a guy who hasn't taken an at-bat in AAA yet.

 

Is that the guy we want to rush? Remember what happened to Aaron Hicks, a vastly superior hitter to Granite.

The difference between Buxton and Hicks and Granite is that the first two are strikeout guys, while Granite puts the ball in play. I wouldn't expect the huge variance in performance when jumping up to the MLB for Granite.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The difference between Buxton and Hicks and Granite is that the first two are strikeout guys, while Granite puts the ball in play. I wouldn't expect the huge variance in performance when jumping up to the MLB for Granite.

Eddie Rosario was a pretty good contact guy in the minors and still managed to lose almost 100 OPS points transitioning to the majors.

 

Of course, Rosario OPSed well over .800 in his minor league career so he could lose that 100 points and not fall off the face of the earth.

 

Max Kepler basically stopped striking out in the minors (~75 Ks in his final ~620 PAs) and also lost roughly 80 OPS points transitioning to the majors.

 

And that 80 points is from Max's career line, not his bonkers .900 OPS 2015/16 line. Adjust for that and his OPS loss is around 160 points.