Bark's 2017 MN Twins OF Insanity

[Bark's Lounge]

Damn, I love the guys we have slotted to play the OF for us this year. Not to ignore Sano or Dozier, I hope they do more than well. I think they will.

 

Buxton, Rosario, Kepler - That is a fun group. This year is the year the Twins have a bonanza effort from the OF. It is breakout from the get-go and no prisoners will be taken!

 

Rosario - .283BA, 22HR. 21SB, .320OBP

 

Buxton - .291BA, 16HR. 38SB, .360OBP

 

Kepler - .253BA, 23HR, 11SB, .340OBP

 

That is not too shabby and I WILL this to happen.

 

Thoughts?

[theBOMisthebomb]

This outfield and its potential gets me fired up.  With Robbie Grossman mashing lefties as the 4th outfielder, these guys are going to make a difference.  In a few years we are going to be talking about our top notch outfield and what a strength it is.  

[Old Twins Cap]

Like the optimism. 

 

I think their HR power is for real, but not sure about average.  The most critical thing though is OBP.  Especially Rosario.  If he and Kepler and Buxton start to show plate discipline, it opens up all kinds of possibilities.  We know about Buxton and Rosario in terms of speed, but I watched Kepler last year, and once he is in full stride, he eats bases like a bad bag of chips.

 

Bring it. that's what I say.  One of these years, the Twins prospects are going to over-perform.

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

What if Zack Granite were the 4th OF instead of Grossman. That OF would be fast, with good arms. Good OF defense makes for better pitching. DEEE FENSE!

[Bark's Lounge]

As a young teenager, Eric Davis was one of my favorite players, his injuries screwed his career over, Buxton is built the same way - lanky, slim, strong and fast. I hope Buxton can remain healthy and put up the numbers Davis would have if he was healthy.

[Taildragger8791]

Love the optimism and I think it'll be a fun group to watch this year. I think the AVG/OBP are a little high for Buxton and Rosario, particularly Buxton's OBP unless he greatly improves at drawing draw walks. The SB are a little high too. Buxton will need to become an on-base machine and increase his aggressiveness to steal over 30 bases, and I don't think Rosario gets enough opportunities between the low OBP and only averaging a 65%-70% success rate. I would think he'll need to get that up to 75% to get the automatic green light. Everything else I think represents the realistic upside of this group, and they'll be one of the best things to follow in 2017.

[goulik]

LETS GO!!

[Mike Sixel]

Those BA are way high. Players just don't hit for that high a BA these days.

[Thegrin]

Be still, my beating heart!  

[GP830]

 

Those BA are way high. Players just don't hit for that high a BA these days.

Interesting-- not to highjack the thread- but why do you think that is? Pitching has gotten better? Or is it that players are more focused on OBP, and K/BB rather than just BA, and so BA drops off? 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Interesting-- not to highjack the thread- but why do you think that is? Pitching has gotten better? Or is it that players are more focused on OBP, and K/BB rather than just BA, and so BA drops off? 

 

Not sure on cause and effect. I think it is partly the pitchers (outside MN) are younger and throw harder/better, and partly that players and teams realize doubles and home runs are more valuable than they thought, so they have adjusted their approach. Mostly I think it is the pitching.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Fun post Bark. 

I'm not sure if any single one of those numbers get hit, They all represent huge steps forward. In fact, none of the 3 ever hit as many home runs in a year as you are suggesting they hit this year.

Old Twins Cap is right. The plate discipline will a huge factor in how good these guys can be. Mike Sixel is probably right, too, about the batting averages, but you know how we hate to tell him he was right about anything.

 

Certainly would welcome a step toward these numbers, especially the OBPs.

 

Also Bark, if you WILL these numbers on our outfielders, any of them, would you please start WILLing some good things for our pitching staff?

[Bark's Lounge]

 

Those BA are way high. Players just don't hit for that high a BA these days.

Mike. Your killing my buzz.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd be happy if Buxton hit .270 this season. Hell, I'd be thrilled if he hit .270 this season.

 

If any one of those players is likely to nudge their batting average over .280, I think it's Kepler. His discipline and more balanced approach will lend itself well to MLB once he gets adjusted, I think.

 

Maybe Rosario if things finally click with him but I've never been terribly high on Rosario so I doubt he'll ever be anything more than a league average starter (and even that is somewhat unlikely).

[Bark's Lounge]

 

Fun post Bark. 

I'm not sure if any single one of those numbers get hit, They all represent huge steps forward. In fact, none of the 3 ever hit as many home runs in a year as you are suggesting they hit this year.

Old Twins Cap is right. The plate discipline will a huge factor in how good these guys can be. Mike Sixel is probably right, too, about the batting averages, but you know how we hate to tell him he was right about anything.

 

Certainly would welcome a step toward these numbers, especially the OBPs.

 

Also Bark, if you WILL these numbers on our outfielders, any of them, would you please start WILLing some good things for our pitching staff?

Sorry Old Goat. I am a man of will power, not a miracle worker.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mike. Your killing my buzz.

 

I actually share your enthusiasm for all three, frankly. I like the OF this year, a lot. I think Buxton is going to show all us doubters how impatient we were.....

[DocBauer]

I absolutely love the potential if this OF and am very excited for this season and going forward when they should be even better. As to your numbers, I'd see somewhat lower batting averages and maybe swap Buxton and Kepler in regard to OB%.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I'd be happy if Buxton hit .270 this season. Hell, I'd be thrilled if he hit .270 this season.

 

If any one of those players is likely to nudge their batting average over .280, I think it's Kepler. His discipline and more balanced approach will lend itself well to MLB once he gets adjusted, I think.

 

Maybe Rosario if things finally click with him but I've never been terribly high on Rosario so I doubt he'll ever be anything more than a league average starter (and even that is somewhat unlikely).

Rosario's whole story is plate discipline.

His splits between RH and LH pitchers is pretty close. If he can become a selective hitter (which might entail taking a walk sometimes) he has the chance to be an exceptional OF for years to come.

 

I'm excited about these guys.

I'd say cautiously optimistic, but I'm throwing caution to the wind.

Go Twins!

[ashbury]

I'd be happy if Buxton hit .270 this season. Hell, I'd be thrilled if he hit .270 this season.

Working against Buxton hitting for high average would be if my memory is correct that after his most recent callup he was aggressively swinging for the fences almost all the time. With some success, I hasten to add.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Working against Buxton hitting for high average would be if my memory is correct that after his most recent callup he was aggressively swinging for the fences almost all the time. With some success, I hasten to add.

Yep. That's why I don't foresee Buxton crossing the .280 mark, at least in 2017. He can learn patience but I doubt it's going to be a light switch moment.

 

He's going to hack and miss a lot. The question is whether it will be at an unacceptable rate.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

We're talking a lot about their offensive numbers...but those guys have potential to play some exceptional defense. We just need Bux to avoid crashing into the fence, and Rosario (how many assists did he have in 2015 ?) needs to concentrate on every pitch and Kepler needs to learn the nuances of the game. Plus the Twins need a fourth OF who can play defense. No more Willinghams, Sanos or Delmon Youngs trying to play OF defense.

[DocBauer]

Because they are still so young, they are simply going to run hot and cold at times. What's most important, at the end if the day and season, is how they progress and develop overall. I believe we will see solid numbers overall. And the defense? Oh my! The defense could be outstanding.

 

But I simply have to also say, don't forget about Grossman. His still only 26-27 and if he could improve to even average defense, he could be helpful as something more than just a DH/PH

[Thrylos]

 

But I simply have to also say, don't forget about Grossman. His still only 26-27 and if he could improve to even average defense, he could be helpful as something more than just a DH/PH

 

Do you remember Delmon Young?   He was a better defender than Grossman and at a younger age.  That's Grossman.  I think that the best thing the Twins can do for Grossman is to give him a first baseman's glove and see if he can handle that position.  Because his moves are Hrbek-like.   On the other hand, I think that Vargas is ahead of Grossman with the glove there as well.  Maybe the RH platoon against LHP as a DH with Vargas playing 1B and Mauer sitting. 

 

As far as the other 3 go, here is kinda where I think they will be next season:

 

Buxton: .266/.332/.467, 18 HR, 28 SB
Kepler: .267/.342/.453, 19 HR, 10 SB
Rosario: .270/.299/.419, 13 HR, 10 SB

[Riverbrian]

 

Damn, I love the guys we have slotted to play the OF for us this year. Not to ignore Sano or Dozier, I hope they do more than well. I think they will.

 

Buxton, Rosario, Kepler - That is a fun group. This year is the year the Twins have a bonanza effort from the OF. It is breakout from the get-go and no prisoners will be taken!

 

Rosario - .283BA, 22HR. 21SB, .320OBP

 

Buxton - .291BA, 16HR. 38SB, .360OBP

 

Kepler - .253BA, 23HR, 11SB, .340OBP

 

That is not too shabby and I WILL this to happen.

 

Thoughts?

 

I'm ok with those numbers... I'm seriously hoping you have that will power!!!

[Bark's Lounge]

 

I'm ok with those numbers... I'm seriously hoping you have that will power!!!

Go Big or Go Home. It was my preseason pep talk. Come October, hopefully I won't be chased up the mountain like Frankenstein by TDer's.

[Riverbrian]

 

Go Big or Go Home. It was my preseason pep talk. Come October, hopefully I won't be chased up the mountain like Frankenstein by TDer's.

 

No worries

 

TD'ers typically don't run. It's hard to read your phones in full stride. 

 

 

 

 

[Bark's Lounge]

 

No worries

 

TD'ers typically don't run. It's hard to read your phones in full stride. 

My saving grace! 

[Brandon Warne]

Wouldn't rule anything out. I think this will be a year for Buxton where he's like a 3-4 win player with like a .720 OPS because his speed and defense are that good.

 

But next year is when he'll really break out. 

[crapforks]

 

 

Buxton: .266/.332/.467, 18 HR, 28 SB

Kepler: .267/.342/.453, 19 HR, 10 SB

Rosario: .270/.299/.419, 13 HR, 10 SB

That's much more realistic, and I'm still taking the combined under on that.

[Pardon My Dinger]

You guys are all missing the point. Bark isn't suggesting these things will happen, he's making them happen. Just say "thank you" and enjoy the show already.