Chronicling Byungho Park's Struggles

[Brandon Warne]

I did some research and wrote this on the struggles of Byungho Park. As a result, I'm not convinced he can be an impact hitter in the big leagues.

 

http://coldomaha.com/2017/twins/chronicling-the-struggles-of-byungho-park/

 

As always, read and critique and let's have a good discussion!

[Taildragger8791]

I appreciate the analysis. There's definitely a pattern but it's hard to make a definitive judgement from these results with barely 1/2 a season of experience combined between AAA/MLB, especially when there was a questionable injury involved. He never got a chance to make an adjustment. And maybe the wrist injury played into his inability to adjust to heat (requiring more force on the affected area). We've watched plenty of rookies come up and pile up disappointing numbers, regularly taking 2-3 years of up & down play while learning. It seems premature to bury him. Hell, your own analysis showed he only saw 20 pitches all year at 95+ mph. He probably saw that many in all his time in Korea.

 

I also have to add that I'm not surprised by a chart showing decreased performance with increased velocity. I'd guess that pattern exists for almost ever hitter. Unfortunately his baseline was already pretty low so the overall numbers look pretty poor. If this were a long-time minor league player I'd be more concerned, but let's give him a year with health to see if he can get used to velocity.

 

I'm far from a rosy-glasses optimist but I do see potential with Park for one reason, which is that we typically see new hitters in the Show struggle with big league breaking pitches more than anything else. Park seems to already be tuned in on those. Give him a year to time up that bigger velocity and we could be handsomely rewarded.

[Brandon Warne]

No, not 20 pitches. 20 plate appearances ended with a pitch over 95 mph. Not exactly the same. 

[Brandon Warne]

For what it's worth, he saw 98 pitches over 95 mph last year. Just over 9 percent of all the pitches he saw. 

[Brandon Warne]

(which sort of lines up with 20 of his ~250 plate appearances ending with a pitch that fast. roughly same percentage)

[Oldgoat_MN]

As always, appreciate your diligent research.

 

I'm kind of leaning toward the idea, though, that he will hit the FB better the more he sees of it. As Taildragger pointed out, many struggle against the breaking balls when the get the the Show and he has a pretty good handle on that.

 

Obviously if he cannot catch up the FB he is screwed, but I'm guessing he will. KBO players as a group (the ones who have come to MLB) have shown to be pretty capable players.

 

Glass half full. I know. Still, I want to believe.

[Rhino and Compass]

I think catching up to pitches is something a player can do with practice (this has no basis in firsthand knowledge, it's just something that seems like something you adjust to, rather than an innate talent) and Park didn't get a chance to develop that ability. Maybe outside of the spotlight, he will make the necessary adaptations.  Yhis time of year, why not at least try to be optimistic.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I think catching up to pitches is something a player can do with practice (this has no basis in firsthand knowledge, it's just something that seems like something you adjust to, rather than an innate talent) and Park didn't get a chance to develop that ability. Maybe outside of the spotlight, he will make the necessary adaptations.  Yhis time of year, why not at least try to be optimistic.

It would take some change in his mechanics.   Maybe just quicken up that big leg kick? 

 

Anyway, just like the MLB beginning of Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Sano and a host of young relievers, I just think it's too early to just give up on Park.  And for the same reasons that we just don't jettison young position players:  new ballparks, new set of pitchers, etc.  Do we even know when Park's wrist injury 1st happened?  That needs to be taken into account, too.

 

As always, Brandon:  I really appreciate your articles.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

That's pretty damning stuff. Park seems like a great guy but it's no wonder no other team wanted anything to do with him. If the wrist injury was related to trying to adjust to high velocity fastballs, then I think Park is pretty much done in MLB, unfortunately. If not, time is not on his side in learning to hit that thing. If there are more fireballers in AA than AAA, he might even have to be sent there. Dunno. He also had that bad practice of backing into the basepath to catch tough hops, instead of stretching forward.

[nicksaviking]

I think the question when Park came over was about adjusting to velocity. Everyone kept referring to fellow countryman Jung Ho Kang and how he was lost for the first couple of months before finally adapting. There was a lot of discussion about whether Park should start at AAA last year instead of just tossing him into the pool.

 

Park was expected to struggle, there was also hope that he'd adjust just as Kang did. I don't think he's been given that opportunity yet.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think the question when Park came over was about adjusting to velocity. Everyone kept referring to fellow countryman Jung Ho Kang and how he was lost for the first couple of months before finally adapting. There was a lot of discussion about whether Park should start at AAA last year instead of just tossing him into the pool.

 

Park was expected to struggle, there was also hope that he'd adjust just as Kang did. I don't think he's been given that opportunity yet.

 

this. Expecting greatness, or even goodness, immediately was folly. Frankly, it was a terrible signing that never should have happened. Had it not, we might have some idea if Vargas can play (well, probably not, Molitor won't play Kennys....).

[theBOMisthebomb]

It's hard to throw in the towel on that power potential so I feel we need to see more PAs before formulating an opinion.

[nicksaviking]

 

this. Expecting greatness, or even goodness, immediately was folly. Frankly, it was a terrible signing that never should have happened. Had it not, we might have some idea if Vargas can play (well, probably not, Molitor won't play Kennys....).

 

On a side note, it seems like there is a unique concern about KBO players adjusting to MLB velocity. Obviously it's a change and surely not everyone can make that change, but we never talk about college or HS draft picks or even AAA hitters in terms of struggling to adapt to MLB velocity. With American kids it's always about if they can adjust to hit breaking and off speed stuff.

 

After all isn't the age old (though exaggerated) conversation something along the lines of 'Anyone can hit a 100 mph fastball, it's the breaking stuff that is going to prevent that kid from hitting in the big leagues.'?

[Mike Sixel]

 

On a side note, it seems like there is a unique concern about KBO players adjusting to MLB velocity. Obviously it's a change and surely not everyone can make that change, but we never talk about college or HS draft picks or even AAA hitters in terms of struggling to adapt to MLB velocity. With American kids it's always about if they can adjust to hit breaking and off speed stuff.

 

After all isn't the age old conversation something along the lines of 'anyone can hit a 100 mph fastball, it's the breaking stuff that is going to prevent that kid from hitting in the big leagues'?

 

don't you think A and/or AA hitters that can't hit a FB are weeded out, and that's why we don't here about it? I do.

[Taildragger8791]

 

No, not 20 pitches. 20 plate appearances ended with a pitch over 95 mph. Not exactly the same. 

Gotcha. I misunderstood the presentation of the data there. But 100 pitches at 95+ still isn't a lot. If he just flat out doesn't have the bat speed or reaction time necessary then he's done. But if it's just a mechanical tweak or learning how to time those pitches then he could still be alright. I still don't think we know which it is, so I'm not ready to close the book on him without giving him to opportunity to try.

[nicksaviking]

 

don't you think A and/or AA hitters that can't hit a FB are weeded out, and that's why we don't here about it? I do.

 

Maybe, but nobody starts out in A or AA. I don't recall ever hearing anyone talk about if Byron Buxton or any other teenager would be able to hit a MLB fastball coming out of the draft. It's not like KBO pitchers are throwing softer than the average HS kid here in the states.

[Linus]

He struck out a ton in Korea so I was always skeptical of what he would do in MLB. Give him a shot in AAA and see what happens

[drjim]

On a side note, it seems like there is a unique concern about KBO players adjusting to MLB velocity. Obviously it's a change and surely not everyone can make that change, but we never talk about college or HS draft picks or even AAA hitters in terms of struggling to adapt to MLB velocity. With American kids it's always about if they can adjust to hit breaking and off speed stuff.

 

After all isn't the age old (though exaggerated) conversation something along the lines of 'Anyone can hit a 100 mph fastball, it's the breaking stuff that is going to prevent that kid from hitting in the big leagues.'?

Catching up to a fastball and hitting breaking stuff is often connected. If the bat is too slow, it is possible to cheat to catch up but then you have no chance against off speed stuff.

 

No one really hits good breaking stuff, the best hitters are those that can lay off it.

[drjim]

this. Expecting greatness, or even goodness, immediately was folly. Frankly, it was a terrible signing that never should have happened. Had it not, we might have some idea if Vargas can play (well, probably not, Molitor won't play Kennys....).

Won't play him as much for very good reasons.

[nicksaviking]

 

Catching up to a fastball and hitting breaking stuff is often connected. If the bat is too slow, it is possible to cheat to catch up but then you have no chance against off speed stuff.

No one really hits good breaking stuff, the best hitters are those that can lay off it.

 

I don't disagree, and I love me some velocity, players should and do have trouble with it.

 

I'm just trying to understand why when we talk about Korean players we worry about them catching up to the fastball but when we talk about American or Latin players, the worry is about the breaking ball and off speed stuff. Everyone who's not a prodigy should be in for a shock with all aspects of MLB pitching.

[clutterheart]

If his injury was nagging and if that impacted his adjustment, then I think its too soon to write off his chances.  

 

[drjim]

I don't disagree, and I love me some velocity, players should and do have trouble with it.

 

I'm just trying to understand why when we talk about Korean players we worry about them catching up to the fastball but when we talk about American or Latin players, the worry is about the breaking ball and off speed stuff. Everyone who's not a prodigy should be in for a shock with all aspects of MLB pitching.

Depends on who you mean by 'we'.

 

The number one thing a hitter has to do is catch up to a fastball. If they can't they have no chance to succeed for an extended time.

 

If a hitter can catch up to a fastball, next issue is plate discipline, ability to lay off quality breaking stuff out of the zone.

[Parker Hageman]

 

No, not 20 pitches. 20 plate appearances ended with a pitch over 95 mph. Not exactly the same. 

 

Just to clarify: StatCast misses a ton of batted ball incidents. It's not wholly reliable to obtain that data from. Pop-ups and grounders have issues in the system. 

 

I detailed this last July when Park was struggling in the minors. ESPN/Tru Media's data shows that he had the second-lowest batting average against 93 MPH or higher (.089) at that time. It's possible Ryan Howard fared better in the second half of the season against the heat and making Park the worst against 93 MPH+. I'll have to look at that data later. 

 

Park’s Korean Baseball Organization-honed upper-cut swing path has been perfect for mashing breaking balls: Of his 12 home runs, 8 were on curves or sliders. Only Colorado’s Trevor Story (10) and the Dodgers’ Corey Seager (9) hit more on those types of pitches. There was no doubt that Park could manhandle mistakes but he has been carved up when the sequences included fastballs with velocity 93 miles per hour or higher. In fact, Park’s struggles are so prolific, his .089 batting average against fastballs 93 MPH or higher was the lowest in baseball… with the exception of the Phillies’ Ryan Howard (.042).

 

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

velocity was a question coming into last year, and it certainly doesn't surprise me that he struggled there. The question as I see it is this:

 

Is it a timing thing or a bat speed thing?

 

One is fixable via repetition. The other is why most of us aren't MLB hitters.

 

I would have expected some of that this season to be honest. I'd also be curious what he got to see for speed in AAA, not just MLB.  Do we see improvements there or is it more of the same.

[nicksaviking]

 

Depends on who you mean by 'we'.

The number one thing a hitter has to do is catch up to a fastball. If they can't they have no chance to succeed for an extended time.

If a hitter can catch up to a fastball, next issue is plate discipline, ability to lay off quality breaking stuff out of the zone.

 

Again, I'm not disagreeing, the ability or inability to catch up to a fastball should be a concern. I'll try to be more clear.

 

Why is this concern always talked about with Korean players, but rarely if ever talked about with everyone else?

[Vanimal46]

 

Again, I'm not disagreeing, the ability or inability to catch up to a fastball should be a concern. I'll try to be more clear.

 

Why is this concern always talked about with Korean players, but rarely if ever talked about with everyone else?

It's got to be related to the perception of the KBO, no? There aren't a ton of flame throwing pitchers in that league.

 

Isn't it kind of the same thing when a kid from NDSU or another Division 1-A football team enters the NFL Draft? Mel Kiper's of the world will say "This kid has x and y strengths. BUT, how will he do against better competition? No one knows." 

[Loosey]

Brandon, Great research.  If a major league hitter struggles with fastballs above 91MPH there is going to be issues.

 

I assume the answer is no, but is there any data that shows how he hit fastballs in AAA?  Did he begin to figure it out at all?  

 

My concern is if he does figure out the fastball, will he do that at the expense of being able to wait on breaking stuff if he sells out on fastballs in the future?

[drjim]

Again, I'm not disagreeing, the ability or inability to catch up to a fastball should be a concern. I'll try to be more clear.

 

Why is this concern always talked about with Korean players, but rarely if ever talked about with everyone else?

Reps. Top end velocity is rare in Korea, while players going up the minors will encounter it at various times.

 

Probably the reason you see AAAA players, they can beat up most pitching but can't consistently catch up to major league velocity.

[Loosey]

 

I think catching up to pitches is something a player can do with practice (this has no basis in firsthand knowledge, it's just something that seems like something you adjust to, rather than an innate talent) and Park didn't get a chance to develop that ability. Maybe outside of the spotlight, he will make the necessary adaptations.  Yhis time of year, why not at least try to be optimistic.

If the fastball issue is due to bat speed, catching up to them will be due to guessing or starting the swing earlier in order to catch up.  This will in effect cause him to not be able to hit breaking balls without guessing before the pitch is thrown.  If it is indeed recognition or timing, then there is hopefully some glimmer of hope.  I'm hoping the latter.

[nicksaviking]

 

It's got to be related to the perception of the KBO, no? There aren't a ton of flame throwing pitchers in that league.

 

Isn't it kind of the same thing when a kid from NDSU or another Division 1-A football team enters the NFL Draft? Mel Kiper's of the world will say "This kid has x and y strengths. BUT, how will he do against better competition? No one knows." 

 

Yes, it would if a football player from NDSU went into the NFL, they talk about that stuff all the time. But it doesn't get brought up if a baseball player came from NDSU, Juan Gamez actually came from NDSU last year and is now in the Twins system. It also doesn't get brought up with HS players or Latin players. They may bring up concerns about "level of competition" or concerns about hitting a good breaking ball or making enough contact or chasing pitches, but it's rare that anyone mentions concerns about catching up to a MLB fastball.

 

And Brandon wrote a good article, my question is just a generality since this velocity stuff was what we heard about when Park was signed and before that with Kang. I don't question why people would worry about it. It just seems to me that when asked if Park can catch up to a 95 MPH heater, the answer should be "Duh, that's a concern with EVERYBODY".