Next year's DH?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Could it be that the arbitration process over values Home Runs?  Maybe he's an 8 million dollar player who would have been awarded 15 million.  It's probably more then just that, but I would imagine if the Brewers didn't fear him being overpaid by a wide margin they would be willing to put up with his negatives.

 

Or maybe they are rebuilding, and want to use their young players, you know, like a certain team in MN should be....

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yeah, and that's not even bringing up Palka, who may be an interesting rookie replacement at DH if both Vargas and Park fail.

 

Can Grossman play 1B.....that could be the way to keep him on the roster. 1b/dh/emergency OF.

[Pardon My Dinger]

It's going to be mostly Polanco, in the first half at least. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Can Grossman play 1B.....that could be the way to keep him on the roster. 1b/dh/emergency OF.

He's a lefty and can hold a glove. It makes sense to get him some reps at the position.

[SheboyganBrats]

It'll be Sano by the All-Star break.

[Loosey]

First of all I don't think a DH for 1 year should be a priority.  Additionally, Chris Carter does one thing well and that is hit HR's.  Outside of that he can't field very well, he strikes out a TON, and when he isn't hitting home runs he isn't getting on base through other means.  A  35-40 HR guy with 200+ strikeouts and a .300 OBP isn't appealing to me when there are other more productive hitters that would bat behind him with less guys on base more often.

 

Just my two cents.

[DocBauer]

Personally, I've never felt you had to have a full time DH if you had a complete and balanced roster. Tom Kelly was always very good at that, though at times he had a fixture at DH. Guys like Bush, Smalley and Larkin took turns in the field and at the plate.

 

Right now, the Twins actually do have a complete and balanced roster. Now, they are very young at spots and the jury is out as to how consistent and good they can ultimately be, but consider Grossman as a OF/DH/PH who switch hits, though he is obviously better from the right side. Mauer, Park and Vargas can all play 1B/DH/PH and one is LH, one RH and one a switch hitter. Escobar or Polanco could give Sano a day off here and there and he could DH as well.

 

As I said, there are a ton of questions here, but also balance and some potential. It's time to see what that potential could ultimately yield. I won't be upset if the Twins bring in a power bat and one of Park or Vargas begins the year in Rochester. I get trying to improve your roster and your offense. I just don't think there is a need to make this move when you have the options/trials the Twins already possess.

[darin617]

 

I'm not sure why I continue to see comments like this. I understand the angst that Joe does not put up numbers people want to see at 1B or for a guy that makes $23 million per year. He was number 4 in OPS+ on the squad. Two of the guys above him are from other run producing spots (2B and 3B). There is very little difference between the OPS of MAuer, Carter and Napoli. The Twins already have enough guys that strike out a ton. Vargas had a higher OPS than all three of them (albeit in 177 PA). Mauer is not a problem in the lineup or in the field. Give him 500-550 PA and sit him against guys he's struggle against. Give most of the rest of the DH and 1B PAs to Vargas and some to Park. If you assume about 1300 PA between 1B and DH, IMO Mauer should get about 550, Vargas 450 and Park 300. I don't see the Twins winning the division this year, so why not exhaust internal options this year? If we find they can't hack it, then sign a veteran bat next year when they theoretically might be closer to contention.

 

So where does Mauer belong in the lineup? He should be either leadoff or bat 8th. No way should he be 3-6 in any lineup.

[Mike Sixel]

 

His OPS+ is comparable to the guys you suggest we replace him with. The team is not going to sit Joe just to replace him with a guy that won't out produce him. Somebody on this team needs to get on base in front of Dozier, Sano, Kepler, Vargas. Joe is our logical 2nd batter. We already shoe horn Dozier in lead off when he'd be better further down the lineup. We can't have all of our batters be low OBP/ high K guys.

 

A recent study showed that if you have a low OBP team, adding more power is better than adding more OBP, because the high OBP guy won't have many RBI opportunities.....

 

I do agree, if mauer is on the team, he should bat 1 or 2. 

[ashbury]

A recent study showed that if you have a low OBP team, adding more power is better than adding more OBP, because the high OBP guy won't have many RBI opportunities.....

That study must have some strange assumptions.

 

The reason to hire the high-OBP guy is to provide RBI opportunities to his teammates, who presumably have the high SLG that's being wasted.

 

If your team is low-OBP and low-SLG, that's the problem, not the new guy.

[Physics Guy]

So where does Mauer belong in the lineup? He should be either leadoff or bat 8th. No way should he be 3-6 in any lineup.

I answered that four posts after the one you quoted. Joe should be batting 2nd in the lineup.

[Platoon]

The Twins already have a plethora of DH types. (It's not often you can use "plethora" and "DH" in the same sentence). . The team has suffered for years with an out of balance roster. Adding a DH to the Twins would be like the Captain of the Titanic wondering if what the ship really needed was more water?

[Mike Sixel]

 

That study must have some strange assumptions.

 

The reason to hire the high-OBP guy is to provide RBI opportunities to his teammates, who presumably have the high SLG that's being wasted.

 

If your team is low-OBP and low-SLG, that's the problem, not the new guy.

 

It made no assumptions, it ran millions of simulations, and that's how the math fell. 

[Steve Lein]

Napoli to start at 1B? Then maybe...

 

To DH? Last time I checked we already had 5 bodies suited for that role on the active roster.

 

Let Park/Vargas/Grossman/Sano/Mauer have at it. I want to see roster and player development, not stagnation.

 

Would Napoli be better? Quite possibly. 

 

Would Napoli be worth it at the expense of all those others? Not likely.

[ThejacKmp]

 

 I don't see the Twins winning the division this year, so why not exhaust internal options this year?

 

I think the reason not to would be to consider the trade deadline. You invest half a year in a guy you plan to flip at the deadline. During that time Vargas and Park are in AAA working on their game and they're up for the second half of the season. If it's the right guy and a 1 year deal, the Twins should definitely take a shot on this - it's what good rebuilding teams do.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think the reason not to would be to consider the trade deadline. You invest half a year in a guy you plan to flip at the deadline. During that time Vargas and Park are in AAA working on their game and they're up for the second half of the season. If it's the right guy and a 1 year deal, the Twins should definitely take a shot on this - it's what good rebuilding teams do.

 

Actually, mediocre DH types don't fetch much at the deadline.....good rebuilding teams take flyers on guys with huge upsides, mostly RPs or SPs, or former top prospects that are still under 30. Older DH types just don't fetch much at the deadline.

 

What, exactly, is Park or Vargas learning in AAA, that would be better than learning in the majors? Park is 29/30, he's either valuable now, or he's never valuable. Play him. He's the guy you might be able to flip at the deadline, you already have that player in Park....

[ThejacKmp]

 

His OPS+ is comparable to the guys you suggest we replace him with. The team is not going to sit Joe just to replace him with a guy that won't out produce him. Somebody on this team needs to get on base in front of Dozier, Sano, Kepler, Vargas. Joe is our logical 2nd batter. We already shoe horn Dozier in lead off when he'd be better further down the lineup. We can't have all of our batters be low OBP/ high K guys.

 

Buxton should be your leadoff hitter. Hopefully by the end of 2017 we're having fights about whether it's better to have your most dynamic batter in the leadoff position or farther down in the lineup where he can hit when guys are on base. That's a good argument to have.

 

My hope for a Twins lineup June 1, assuming no additions to the squad:

 

VS RIGHTIES

CF Buxton R

1B Mauer L

2B Dozier R

3B Sano R

DH Vargas S

RF Kepler L

LF Rosario L

C Castro L

SS Polanco S*

 

VS LEFTIES

CF Buxton R

SS Polanco S*

2B Dozier R

3B Sano R

DH Vargas S

LF Grossman S

1B Park R

C Murphy R

LF Rosario/Kepler L

 

That's not a bad lineup either way you look at it and either way you have a nice bench: on RH starter days you have Park and Grossman to PH if teams bring in lefty relievers late in games and on LH starter days you'll have Mauer** and Kepler/Rosario to do the same. The Twins may have no pitching but the hitting half of games should be fun to watch.

 

* Let's not turn this into a "Is Polanco at shortstop a good idea" discussion. That's been done elsewhere. I get every argument against it but we're building a lineup here and I'm going off a "Dozier wasn't traded and Polanco should play everyday" rationale. It won't be pretty in the field I'm sure.

 

** It would be great to see Mauer get a healthy number of at bats in the 9th inning of close games against closers and set up men (most are RH and the Twins lineup against LH starters has lots of guys you'd be pinch hitting for) and add to his walk-off total. Very ironic if in the twilight of his career Mauer became Mr. Clutch, something fans have held against him for years. :-P

[ThejacKmp]

 

Actually, mediocre DH types don't fetch much at the deadline.....good rebuilding teams take flyers on guys with huge upsides, mostly RPs or SPs, or former top prospects that are still under 30. Older DH types just don't fetch much at the deadline.

 

What, exactly, is Park or Vargas learning in AAA, that would be better than learning in the majors? Park is 29/30, he's either valuable now, or he's never valuable. Play him. He's the guy you might be able to flip at the deadline, you already have that player in Park....

 

I'm not saying Napoli is necessarily the guy - though he might be, teams do make moves at deadlines for well-liked veterans to play a bench role. Jeff Francouer made a career out of that. Napoli is a guy who can play 1B, which should be a prerequisite for any DH signing (and a guy who can play corner OF would of course be even better). I'm not saying the Twins are going to get an elite prospect for a Napoli-type 1B/DH but they could get a nice promising relief arm or a young A ball prospect. That's worth keeping one of Park or Vargas in the minors for a 1/2 year.

 

It would be one thing if Park or Vargas were both legitimate awesome prospects but neither of them has really forced the Twins' hand. I'd be comfortable seeing what they're made of this year if no one interesting opens up for the Twins at DH on a 1 year deal but neither is such a great player that the Twins should be standing pat.

 

Important to note that you're also only talking about one of them being in the minors. Spring training would be a battle between Vargas and Park for a bench/platoon spot at 1B/DH. That might not be the worst thing - I can see one of them having a nice year but the odds of both of them is perhaps a bit too unlikely to have it be the only plan.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm not saying Napoli is necessarily the guy - though he might be, teams do make moves at deadlines for well-liked veterans to play a bench role. Jeff Francouer made a career out of that. Napoli is a guy who can play 1B, which should be a prerequisite for any DH signing (and a guy who can play corner OF would of course be even better). I'm not saying the Twins are going to get an elite prospect for a Napoli-type 1B/DH but they could get a nice promising relief arm or a young A ball prospect. That's worth keeping one of Park or Vargas in the minors for a 1/2 year.

 

It would be one thing if Park or Vargas were both legitimate awesome prospects but neither of them has really forced the Twins' hand. I'd be comfortable seeing what they're made of this year if no one interesting opens up for the Twins at DH on a 1 year deal but neither is such a great player that the Twins should be standing pat.

 

Important to note that you're also only talking about one of them being in the minors. Spring training would be a battle between Vargas and Park for a bench/platoon spot at 1B/DH. That might not be the worst thing - I can see one of them having a nice year but the odds of both of them is perhaps a bit too unlikely to have it be the only plan.

 

all fair, and no, neither is guaranteed at all to be good....but I'd like to find out this year one way or the other. Especially in a 75ish win season. That seems, to me, to be more important than a tiny chance a veteran DH will return anything at all....

[ashbury]

It made no assumptions, it ran millions of simulations, and that's how the math fell. 

Of course there were assumptions. You can't design a simulation without building some in.

 

Do you have a link to a page describing the study?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Of course there were assumptions. You can't design a simulation without building some in.

 

Do you have a link to a page describing the study?

 

I'll look later, I actually have work to do...

 

And yes, clearly assumptions have to be made in any model.

[Vanimal46]

This is a cross post since others don't visit the Fangraphs thread on here:

Don't Quit on Byung-ho Park

[ThejacKmp]

 

all fair, and no, neither is guaranteed at all to be good....but I'd like to find out this year one way or the other. Especially in a 75ish win season. That seems, to me, to be more important than a tiny chance a veteran DH will return anything at all....

 

Agreed mostly. I don't want the Twins to do something just to maybe have a guy. It would have to be a guy who just doesn't have a market for a full year deal but who you can reasonably see a Nunez half-year from.

 

Napoli actually might fit that build - he's only two years removed from a string of 120 OPS+ years and in 2015 he had a nice 35 game stretch with Texas where he put up a 143 OPS+. Plus I get the sense he is viewed as a Proven Leader (I think that's overrated but baseball doesn't) and a Veteran Postseason Bat (even though his 2015 and 2016 postseasons were awful). He's the kind of bench bat/platoon partner GMs love to add for the stretch.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm not saying Napoli is necessarily the guy - though he might be, teams do make moves at deadlines for well-liked veterans to play a bench role. Jeff Francouer made a career out of that. Napoli is a guy who can play 1B, which should be a prerequisite for any DH signing (and a guy who can play corner OF would of course be even better). I'm not saying the Twins are going to get an elite prospect for a Napoli-type 1B/DH but they could get a nice promising relief arm or a young A ball prospect. That's worth keeping one of Park or Vargas in the minors for a 1/2 year.

 

It would be one thing if Park or Vargas were both legitimate awesome prospects but neither of them has really forced the Twins' hand. I'd be comfortable seeing what they're made of this year if no one interesting opens up for the Twins at DH on a 1 year deal but neither is such a great player that the Twins should be standing pat.

 

Important to note that you're also only talking about one of them being in the minors. Spring training would be a battle between Vargas and Park for a bench/platoon spot at 1B/DH. That might not be the worst thing - I can see one of them having a nice year but the odds of both of them is perhaps a bit too unlikely to have it be the only plan.

I highly doubt that both Vargas and Park make the opening day roster even without any additions, so signing another DH almost certainly means they both go to AAA.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The Twins already have a plethora of DH types. (It's not often you can use "plethora" and "DH" in the same sentence). . The team has suffered for years with an out of balance roster. Adding a DH to the Twins would be like the Captain of the Titanic wondering if what the ship really needed was more water?

Actually, I suspect fans of bad teams say this all the time. There are lots of bats in MLB. There are far fewer bats who can competently play a position, particularly if you exclude 1B/RF from the conversation.

 

Which is why I want to see the Twins run with what they have to start 2017. I don't have a lot of faith in either Park or Vargas but I don't want to have them lingering around the 40 man in 2018 with the same questions attached to them.

 

To a lesser extent, you can include Palka in that conversation.

[mikelink45]

I do not see the value.  Jason Stark has an article - Does Baseball Still Dig the Long Ball - http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18592522/does-baseball-dig-long-ball and it is an interesting read when we talk about these sluggers.  Baseball is starting to recognize the need for more complete players.  We have sluggers and we have players who know how to strike out.  We need players who can catch the ball and players who put the ball in play.  Vargas, Park, Carter, Napoli all have the same set of abilities, some have future potential.  Why pay more for something that is not needed.  Another reader pointed out pitching.  That is the place where we need help.  And I would take a glove over a bat at this point. 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Actually, I suspect fans of bad teams say this all the time. There are lots of bats in MLB. There are far fewer bats who can competently play a position, particularly if you exclude 1B/RF from the conversation.

 

Which is why I want to see the Twins run with what they have to start 2017. I don't have a lot of faith in either Park or Vargas but I don't want to have them lingering around the 40 man in 2018 with the same questions attached to them.

 

To a lesser extent, you can include Palka in that conversation.

 

I think Palka will either be the 4th OF, or be in AAA. His defense in ST will likely be the deciding factor.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think Palka will either be the 4th OF, or be in AAA. His defense in ST will likely be the deciding factor.

I suspect Palka will be in AAA, my point was that it's possible he adds another body to an already crowded DH situation sometime in the near future.

[John Kelsey]

 

I'd like to see more from a healthy Park, personally. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/mKY07dl.gif

[drjim]

 

I'll make a hot prediction.

Napoli signs a 1 year deal, Vargas starts at AAA, and Park never plays another mlb game for the Twins.

 

Fingers crossed