Passan: Dodgers Nearing Deal for Forsythe

[drivlikejehu]

 

You kind of made it seemed like if JDL's ceiling is that of a #2 he should be a lock in the Dodger rotation. I simply was stating that the Dodger rotation is just staked with more proven pitchers. 

 

Fair point about starting the year in the rotation, except again, some of their starter candidates are going to wind up in the bullpen anyway. They had all kinds of options . . . not trading out of their MLB depth, or trading someone other than De Leon, or waiting until mid-season to pick up a 2nd baseman. Yet they marketed De Leon specifically to at least two teams, probably more than that, and there was never a peep about alternatives.

 

The evidence therefore supports the idea that the Dodgers wanted to deal De Leon specifically, despite their full range of options. There is no way they would be so set on trading an elite prospect. The Dodgers just didn't love De Leon's future that much.

[TyTY23]

 

Fair point about starting the year in the rotation, except again, some of their starter candidates are going to wind up in the bullpen anyway. They had all kinds of options . . . not trading out of their MLB depth, or trading someone other than De Leon, or waiting until mid-season to pick up a 2nd baseman. Yet they marketed De Leon specifically to at least two teams, probably more than that, and there was never a peep about alternatives.

 

The evidence therefore supports the idea that the Dodgers wanted to deal De Leon specifically, despite their full range of options. There is no way they would be so set on trading an elite prospect. The Dodgers just didn't love De Leon's future that much.

I don't agree that the Dodgers didn't love JDL's future. The Dodger must have thought JDL was good enough to net a player like Dozier.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I don't agree that the Dodgers didn't love JDL's future. The Dodger must have thought JDL was good enough to net a player like Dozier.

 

No, only that the Twins would think JDL was good enough, as a main piece. Which is completely different and has no bearing on the fact that, if he's legit, the Dodgers could have used him extensively in 2017. 

[darin617]

 

If De Leon is a #2 starter, why wasn't he a lock for the rotation? Are all those other guys behind Kershaw at least a #2? 

 

Unless you mean De Leon won't be a #2 for a while, which I don't understand because he's 24. Will he be good when he's 27? I don't get it. 

 

My guess would because of the bad contracts on the books they can't unload and have chose not to eat as one reason.

[TyTY23]

 

No, only that the Twins would think JDL was good enough, as a main piece. Which is completely different and has no bearing on the fact that, if he's legit, the Dodgers could have used him extensively in 2017. 

I already stated the reason he wasn't a lock to make it in the Dodger's rotation, and it wasn't because he wasn't legit. The Dodgers pitching depth is just really impressive right now. The Dodger were simply trading from their surplus. As far as legit goes, we will see what kind of pitcher he will turn out since no one really knows if he's legit. 

[drivlikejehu]

 

I already stated the reason he wasn't a lock to make it in the Dodger's rotation, and it wasn't because he wasn't legit. The Dodgers pitching depth is just really impressive right now. The Dodger were simply trading from their surplus. As far as legit goes, we will see what kind of pitcher he will turn out since no one really knows if he's legit. 

 

Again, then why not put him in the bullpen? That would make a ton of sense for JDL.

 

No one knows for sure, but the Dodgers have the best guess. That's the bottom line. I have nothing against JDL so I'm not rooting for it, but I would be shocked if he panned out at all. Smart teams make a living trading away the right pitching prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

 

FWIW, i had asked the guy who broke the Turner and Jansen signings what he had heard.  His response was that he heard Stewart had been added.   I'm not saying he's right or wrong anymore than I'm   saying Dave was right or wrong.  Just sharing information.  

 

If they turned down Stewart and JDL, well, I don't know what to say, other than, it's going to be a very long road to respectability, let alone WS titles. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Again, then why not put him in the bullpen? That would make a ton of sense for JDL.

 

No one knows for sure, but the Dodgers have the best guess. That's the bottom line. I have nothing against JDL so I'm not rooting for it, but I would be shocked if he panned out at all. Smart teams make a living trading away the right pitching prospects.

 

If your argument, over and over, is that JDL can't be good because they were willing to trade him, what does that make Brian Dozier?

 

What does that make Chris Sale?

 

What does that make any of the pitching prospects ever traded in the history of MLB?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm still wondering if the reason this deal didn't get done is because Falvey and Levine had one of two issues with De Leon:

 

1. They have in-depth scouting on De Leon and they're not in love with his player profile, which forced them to ask for a lot more from the Dodgers.

 

2. They don't have an in-depth scouting report on De Leon, which forced them to ask for a lot more from the Dodgers.

[drivlikejehu]

 

If your argument, over and over, is that JDL can't be good because they were willing to trade him, what does that make Brian Dozier?

 

What does that make Chris Sale?

 

What does that make any of the pitching prospects ever traded in the history of MLB?

 

Dozier and Sale aren't prospects.

 

Most pitching prospects traded in the history of MLB never wound up in MLB.

[nicksaviking]

 

I'm still wondering if the reason this deal didn't get done is because Falvey and Levine had one of two issues with De Leon:

 

1. They have in-depth scouting on De Leon and they're not in love with his player profile, which forced them to ask for a lot more from the Dodgers.

 

2. They don't have an in-depth scouting report on De Leon, which forced them to ask for a lot more from the Dodgers.

 

Considering that De Leon is pretty much the opposite kind of pitcher than what Falvey had in Cleveland, I'm coming around to the belief that #1 is very possible.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Considering that De Leon is pretty much the opposite kind of pitcher than what Falvey had in Cleveland, I'm coming around to the belief that #1 is very possible.

Yeah, same here.

 

On a related topic, it also makes you wonder what they really think of Berrios.

 

But Berrios throws harder than De Leon so it's not entirely an apples-to-apples comparison. In their respective cups of coffee, Berrios threw mid-93 and De Leon threw mid-91.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Dozier and Sale aren't prospects.

 

Most pitching prospects traded in the history of MLB never wound up in MLB.

 

Was that the point at all? The poster has said, over and over, that if a team is willing to trade a player, that player can't be all that good.

 

And of course most prospects don't work out, are you suggesting I don't know that? 

[drjim]

 

If they turned down Stewart and JDL, well, I don't know what to say, other than, it's going to be a very long road to respectability, let alone WS titles. 

 

The Twins will RUE the day they turned down such great rotation depth.

 

Maybe they should have done it (I don't think that's enough), but that is way, way overstating the consequence.

[USAFChief]

I recognize RB, but who is the human spooning him?

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Twins will RUE the day they turned down such great rotation depth.

 

Maybe they should have done it (I don't think that's enough), but that is way, way overstating the consequence.

 

They have two tradeable veterans, maybe three if you like Kintzler/Perkins.....they don't have a lot of opportunity to add any prospects, frankly. Is it the end of the world? No. Does not acquiring two SPs with #3 ceilings, number 5 floors hurt compared to doing nothing? IMO, yes.

[drjim]

 

They have two tradeable veterans, maybe three if you like Kintzler/Perkins.....they don't have a lot of opportunity to add any prospects, frankly. Is it the end of the world? No. Does not acquiring two SPs with #3 ceilings, number 5 floors hurt compared to doing nothing? IMO, yes.

 

I think a point that can't be stated enough is that nothing now is not nothing ever. It's not like there are one trade now away from competition in 2 years.

 

Being in a hurry too often lead to bad outcomes.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think a point that can't be stated enough is that nothing now is not nothing ever. It's not like there are one trade now away from competition in 2 years.

 

Being in a hurry too often lead to bad outcomes.

 

Has anyone, anywhere on the entire planet, said they are 1 trade away?

 

Also, do we actually expect Dozier's value to go up at this point? That someone will make a better offer than Stewart and JDL (which is the offer I am criticizing them for not taking, since that's the post I was responding to)?

[nicksaviking]

 

Yeah, same here.

 

On a related topic, it also makes you wonder what they really think of Berrios.

 

But Berrios throws harder than De Leon so it's not entirely an apples-to-apples comparison. In their respective cups of coffee, Berrios threw mid-93 and De Leon threw mid-91.

 

They may not be impressed, but unless I'm not reading the right reports, Berrios' curve (slurve?) was supposed to be pretty good, and actually he threw that pitch more than he threw his changeup last year, so I'd assume at least someone thinks it's worth using. Also the additional velocity is a plus.

 

Cleveland does seem to have a lot of guys with a four pitch mix though, Berrios basically has three. However, on a positive note, if any of this discussion has any basis in reality (ha, fat chance!) it would certainly make a case that Falvey would lean toward the harder-throwing, four-pitch Trevor May in the rotation over Hughes and Duffey.

[ThejacKmp]

 

you think the Twins being a contender this year is a legit possibility? we disagree on that. As does pretty much every projection system and Vegas.

 

Again, that's why they play the games. On paper the 2015 Twins don't belong anywhere near a playoff race - but there they were. I don't think the 2017 Twins are going to the World Series but I also think saying, "The Twins won't be a contender in 2017" is a bit premature. It takes a lot but it's not that hard to see:

 

1) The Twins offense is a legit top 5 offense - Dozier approximates 2015, Buxton and Sano take the jump to All-Stars, Vargas, Kepler and Rosario are above average for their positions and the rest of the Twins lineup finds ways to contribute. Maybe even a bit of a bounce back year for Mauer as he settles into a platoon?

 

2) Bullpen performance is extremely variable and the Twins hit on a good year. They certainly have the talent to do that - this might be the most doable thing for a good 2017. Some of the young arms impress in spring training and carry it into the regular season. The Twins lack the elite relievers but have a lot of quality depth and some nice reinforcements in the minors.

 

3) The least likely - the rotation holds it's own. Santana is a reasonable guy at the top of the rotation, Berrios harnesses his potential and is an okay #2 starter and between Hughes, May, Santiago and Gibson the Twins have a lot of guys who aren't spectacular but keep them in games. Maybe even a little Gonsalves later in the season ala 2015 Duffey. There's no reason the 2017 Twins rotation can't outperform 2015 (that's not asking much, that rotation was garbage).

 

That's a team that could very well compete for the Wild Card. I didn't make anyone a superstar or anything, I just took a best case scenario. The Twins need a lot of things to break their way so it's not super likely but I just think assuming the Twins will suck in 2017 is pretty pessimistic and ignores the potential upside. There's a team every year that no one really expects much from that makes a run for the Wild Card.

 

That's why they play the games.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I'll counter that with saying that the Twins were a surprise contender in July of 2015. On trade deadline day, July 31, they held a WC spot. They were only up by one game, but still they were a playoff contender at that point. Would you have given up a two top 10 Twins prospects for whatever their need was at the time? My answer is no, unless the return was a good MLB SP under contract for 3+ years. How much would that cost? Guessing a lot.

You have to find the right surprise contender. One that is absolutely sure they are contending for the next few years, because if they don't think that they likely wouldn't want Dozier. Plus, the big trades are usually made for SP or RP and Dozier is neither. Seems like a needle in a hay stack. The Twins thought 2015 was the upswing. 2016 showed otherwise.

I wouldn't have done a 1-1 with DeLeon, but I also don't think we'll get more at the deadline unless the perfect storm of luck happens. I could certainly be wrong.

 

Dozier does come with another year of control (and the ability to negotiate an extension for whatever that is worth) so he's not a rental.

 

I think we can all look back and see deadline deals that involved significant pieces going out. There are a lot of teams with pressure on the GM - The Dodgers and Nats are going to be gunning for it, the Blue Jays and Rangers may be in the same boat.

There's luck involved in any trade deadline thing but if Dozier hits, teams should be looking for a way to make him work, not trying to plug an existing hole. That's kind of my point.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's important to remember, De Leon was also the best chip the Dodgers really had for improving 2B and the present-day offense/team in general.

 

Bellinger could have gotten a 2B, but losing him would likely hurt the offense as soon as they needed a LF or 1B which is expected soon.  (Same for losing Urias hurting the present day rotation if you want to consider him.)

 

Alvarez, Buehler, etc. -- none of those guys individually brings the value of De Leon at the moment, and by the time you add other prospects, those packages will likely hurt more than the De Leon-led package.

 

It's possible that the Dodgers had a pessimistic take on De Leon too.  But he was also clearly their best chip for reasons other than that.  Keeping De Leon for depth this year, and trading away, say, Alvarez plus Calhoun instead to fill 2B, isn't necessarily in the best long-term interests of the Dodgers either, even if they liked De Leon just fine.

[markos]

 

Again, then why not put him in the bullpen? That would make a ton of sense for JDL.

 

No one knows for sure, but the Dodgers have the best guess. That's the bottom line. I have nothing against JDL so I'm not rooting for it, but I would be shocked if he panned out at all. Smart teams make a living trading away the right pitching prospects.

The Rays are generally considered a pretty smart team, and they thought JDL was worth acquiring. They have made a living acquiring the right pitching prospects.

[jimmer]

It's important to remember, De Leon was also the best chip the Dodgers really had for improving 2B and the present-day offense/team in general.

 

Bellinger could have gotten a 2B, but losing him would likely hurt the offense as soon as they needed a LF or 1B which is expected soon. (Same for losing Urias hurting the present day rotation if you want to consider him.)

 

Alvarez, Buehler, etc. -- none of those guys individually brings the value of De Leon at the moment, and by the time you add other prospects, those packages will likely hurt more than the De Leon-led package.

 

It's possible that the Dodgers had a pessimistic take on De Leon too. But he was also clearly their best chip for reasons other than that. Keeping De Leon for depth this year, and trading away, say, Alvarez plus Calhoun instead to fill 2B, isn't necessarily in the best long-term interests of the Dodgers either, even if they liked De Leon just fine.

Well said

[nicksaviking]

 

The Rays are generally considered a pretty smart team, and they thought JDL was worth acquiring. They have made a living acquiring the right pitching prospects.

 

Wasn't that mostly under Freidman? Who is now running the Dodgers?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Wasn't that mostly under Freidman? Who is now running the Dodgers?

 

did no one left behind learn anything? Were they just left barren of intellect when he left?

[markos]

 

It's important to remember, De Leon was also the best chip the Dodgers really had for improving 2B and the present-day offense/team in general.

 

Bellinger could have gotten a 2B, but losing him would likely hurt the offense as soon as they needed a LF or 1B which is expected soon.  (Same for losing Urias hurting the present day rotation if you want to consider him.)

 

Alvarez, Buehler, etc. -- none of those guys individually brings the value of De Leon at the moment, and by the time you add other prospects, those packages will likely hurt more than the De Leon-led package.

 

It's possible that the Dodgers had a pessimistic take on De Leon too.  But he was also clearly their best chip for reasons other than that.  Keeping De Leon for depth this year, and trading away, say, Alvarez plus Calhoun instead to fill 2B, isn't necessarily in the best long-term interests of the Dodgers either, even if they liked De Leon just fine.

I have wondered throughout this entire process exactly how much they explored options without De Leon as the centerpiece. Maybe that route could have allowed for more high-upside-but-farther-away talent. For example, perhaps the Twins would have been able to get a package like Stewart, Buehler and Lux. 

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

Also, do we actually expect Dozier's value to go up at this point? That someone will make a better offer than Stewart and JDL (which is the offer I am criticizing them for not taking, since that's the post I was responding to)?

His value might go down but the return might go up.  Let's say he was worth $2 today and the Dodgers were only offering half that (which, frankly, if it was De Leon and junk sounds about right).  So the Dodgers are giving us a buck.  Let's say we move him at the break and his value is now only $1.50.  But someone is willing to pay us 70% instead of 50%.  We've made 5 cents.  And that, I think, is the big problem.  De Leon and junk came nowhere near Dozier's value so it was an obvious turn-down, regardless of what might or might not happen down the road.

 

 

[Willihammer]

Didn't Passan say the Dodgers viewed JDL as a lesser talent than Buehler?

[Willihammer]

I can't wait to play the Rays this year and watch Sano hit a 3 run jack off the outer catwalk against JDL.