Passan: Dodgers Nearing Deal for Forsythe

[drjim]

Sickels is one of the really high ones on De Leon:

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/1/24/14369872/dodgers-trade-pitching-prospect-jose-de-leon-to-rays-for-logan-forsythe

[Brock Beauchamp]

So Law has De Leon ranked only marginally higher than Kohl Stewart and Gonsalves? Am I reading this correctly?

 

Ouch.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Interesting that the Rays have kinda had the offseason that many hoped for the Twins.

 

They traded their 2B for a pretty good (albeit polarizing) MLB ready SP prospect.

 

They signed a controllable bounceback candidate for their bullpen in Shawn Tolleson.

 

They signed a catcher with upside in Wilson Ramos.

 

They signed a bounceback outfielder in Colby Rasmus.

 

And they also dealt a SP with only two years of control left (Smyly), although I'm not quite sure how to grade that return yet.  This one seems more influenced by their financial limitations than the other moves.

[Mike Sixel]

 

So Law has De Leon ranked only marginally higher than Kohl Stewart and Gonsalves? Am I reading this correctly?

 

Ouch.

 

KLAW is big on upside, vs Sickels who is big on likely to succeed at some level. But yes....if the Twins think De Leon is a number 4/5, I understand why they wanted more.

 

If they think he is a 3, then I probably do a 1:1, probably.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Interesting that the Rays have kinda had the offseason that many hoped for the Twins.

 

They traded their 2B for a pretty good (albeit polarizing) MLB ready SP prospect.

 

They signed a controllable bounceback candidate for their bullpen in Shawn Tolleson.

 

They signed a catcher with upside in Wilson Ramos.

 

They signed a bounceback outfielder in Colby Rasmus.

 

And they also dealt a SP with only two years of control left (Smyly), although I'm not quite sure how to grade that return yet.  This one seems more influenced by their financial limitations than the other moves.

 

Yup, that's what I expected also. the Twins did 1 of those things.....sort of, with catcher.

[nicksaviking]

 

He's obviously better than Slama, but that is an interesting comp in that the AAA numbers might show something that is not going to be there in the bigs.

 

Right, I didn't mean to compare him to Slama except in the fact that people can get pretty excited about numbers that aren't backed up by quality velocity or breaking pitches.

[nicksaviking]

 

Interesting that the Rays have kinda had the offseason that many hoped for the Twins.

 

They traded their 2B for a pretty good (albeit polarizing) MLB ready SP prospect.

 

They signed a controllable bounceback candidate for their bullpen in Shawn Tolleson.

 

They signed a catcher with upside in Wilson Ramos.

 

They signed a bounceback outfielder in Colby Rasmus.

 

And they also dealt a SP with only two years of control left (Smyly), although I'm not quite sure how to grade that return yet.  This one seems more influenced by their financial limitations than the other moves.

 

Aside from trading Dozier for De Leon, yeah I would have liked those moves, though based on the contract I'd guess both the Rays and Ramos know he won't catch much this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So it's probably worth thinking that the Twins and Dodgers may have had very different valuations of De Leon as a centerpiece.  If the Twins thought he was in the 75 range - somewhere close to Gonsalves - it makes a lot of sense to expect a better package.

I get that Law has De Leon pretty low and Sickels/Cameron have him pretty high, but there seemed to be more of a consensus on him last winter, and it doesn't feel like he should have slipped much since then (he missed some time, but followed it with some superlative performance).

 

Pre-2016 ranks
BA #23
MLB #24
BP #29

 

It would have been pretty gutsy (foolish?) to approach these negotiations with the idea that De Leon is roughly equivalent in value to Gonsalves or even Stewart.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Aside from trading Dozier for De Leon, yeah I would have liked those moves, though based on the contract I'd guess both the Rays and Ramos know he won't catch much this year.

Definitely. Of course, that would have given the Twins extra opportunity to evaluate Murphy and Garver in non-backup/platoon roles.

 

The Twins would actually seem to be in a better position to withstand the absence of Ramos -- the Rays have very little else of interest at the catcher position right now (although I expect they will come up with some superlative Molina level framer somehow ).

[drivlikejehu]

 

Pre-2016 ranks

BA #23
MLB #24
BP #29

 

It would have been pretty gutsy (foolish?) to approach these negotiations with the idea that De Leon is roughly equivalent in value to Gonsalves or even Stewart.

 

Those rankings are meaningless to the Twins in a negotiation. The Twins have an evaluation of De Leon, and that's the only thing that matters. If they think De Leon sucks, what are they supposed to do, say "yeah we'll pretend we think he's good because Sickels says so." Seriously?

[gunnarthor]

 

I get that Law has De Leon pretty low and Sickels/Cameron have him pretty high, but there seemed to be more of a consensus on him last winter, and it doesn't feel like he should have slipped much since then (he missed some time, but followed it with some superlative performance).

 

Pre-2016 ranks
BA #23
MLB #24
BP #29

 

It would have been pretty gutsy (foolish?) to approach these negotiations with the idea that De Leon is roughly equivalent in value to Gonsalves or even Stewart.

Beats me.  We're just working off what we know.  Pre-2016 doesn't include his sparkling numbers in AAA or his less than sparkling numbers in the majors.  It also doesn't include his missed time for injuries.  (Which was the major red flag for me).

 

My feeling is that De Leon's stats are ahead of his stuff and he's more likely a backend starter who, in his beset years, can play above that but will have injury concerns.  I would be his career looks a lot more like a guy like Jaime Garcia than Gio Gonzalez.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Those rankings are meaningless to the Twins in a negotiation. The Twins have an evaluation of De Leon, and that's the only thing that matters. If they think De Leon sucks, what are they supposed to do, say "yeah we'll pretend we think he's good because Sickels says so." Seriously?

 

Not sure I understand, we don't know what hte Twins think......we do know what about 5 ranking sites think. I'm curious, has anyone posted that if the Twins think De Leon sucks, they should have traded for him? 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Those rankings are meaningless to the Twins in a negotiation. The Twins have an evaluation of De Leon, and that's the only thing that matters. If they think De Leon sucks, what are they supposed to do, say "yeah we'll pretend we think he's good because Sickels says so." Seriously?

This is obvious.  But we don't know the Twins internal evaluation, that's the point.  It's possible their internal evaluation lines up with the most pessimistic of outside evaluations, but like I said, that would be a fairly gutsy evaluation.

 

Likewise it would be a gutsy move to line up with the most optimistic take, but it seems there is a consensus on De Leon that's well above Law's opinion, even if it's not as high as Sickels'.  Eric Longenhagen has been noted as a De Leon skeptic too, but I notice even he assigned De Leon a 55 FV grade which is still pretty good (and a step above Gonsalves etc.).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Beats me.  We're just working off what we know.  Pre-2016 doesn't include his sparkling numbers in AAA or his less than sparkling numbers in the majors.  It also doesn't include his missed time for injuries.  (Which was the major red flag for me).

It's worth noting that De Leon first missed time last year for a sprained ankle.  Shortly after coming back from that layoff, he was shelved a bit longer for arm soreness.  Given that he came back strong shortly thereafter, it sure seems that was more temporary due to the layoff than a major red flag, IMO.  (Granted, you never know with pitchers.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My feeling is that De Leon's stats are ahead of his stuff and he's more likely a backend starter who, in his beset years, can play above that but will have injury concerns.  I would be his career looks a lot more like a guy like Jaime Garcia than Gio Gonzalez.  

That's fair, although even that kind of player can have more value than the raw WAR total after 6 years.  The Cardinals could have traded Jaime Garcia for a pretty impressive haul after his first season or two if they were pessimistic about his long-term chances.

[drivlikejehu]

 

This is obvious.  But we don't know the Twins internal evaluation, that's the point.  It's possible their internal evaluation lines up with the most pessimistic of outside evaluations, but like I said, that would be a fairly gutsy evaluation.

 

Likewise it would be a gutsy move to line up with the most optimistic take, but it seems there is a consensus on De Leon that's well above Law's opinion, even if it's not as high as Sickels'.  Eric Longenhagen has been noted as a De Leon skeptic too, but I notice even he assigned De Leon a 55 FV grade which is still pretty good (and a step above Gonsalves etc.).

 

Well I think we have some evidence to suggest that the Twins don't love him, considering they weren't able to build a deal around him for Dozier. 

 

We also don't really know what the majority of scouts think about De Leon, since most work for clubs rather than ESPN, BP, etc. 

 

The objective evidence is that De Leon is not seen as an elite prospect within baseball, or the Dodgers would have gotten more for him than 2 years of Logan Forsythe. Even if only a handful of clubs loved De Leon, the Dodgers could have pursued a three-team trade. 

 

The obvious story here is that, while De Leon is ready for the Majors, he's a back-end starter and everyone in MLB knows it. That wasn't enough to entice the Twins, but it was enough for the Rays to give up a player with less value.

[nicksaviking]

 

Not sure I understand, we don't know what hte Twins think......we do know what about 5 ranking sites think. I'm curious, has anyone posted that if the Twins think De Leon sucks, they should have traded for him? 

 

No but I've been pretty consistent that with players this questionable I'm going to want multiple lottery tickets. And there's a healthy gap between sucks and skepticism. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

No but I've been pretty consistent that with players this questionable I'm going to want multiple lottery tickets. And there's a healthy gap between sucks and skepticism. 

 

well, that post I responded to was pretty clear.....

 

I don't begrudge your stance, Nick, not at all. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

From who though? All contenders seem to have a 2B. We'd have to hope someone gets injured.

 

There some team out there you aren't thinking of as a contender who become a contender. Or a team loses a 3B or a LF and has a 2B who can move.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There some team out there you aren't thinking of as a contender who become a contender. Or a team loses a 3B or a LF and has a 2B who can move.

 

Or, the 2B market stays the same. that's also a legit possibility. 

[Gheggs08]

"The projections, likewise, don’t see two similarly valuable players. Steamer projects Dozier for +2.8 WAR per 600 PA, while they have Forsythe at +2.2 WAR per 600 PA. ZIPS sees both as more valuable players, but maintains the same gap, with Dozier at +3.9 WAR/600, and Forsythe at +3.0 WAR/600. That’s nearly an extra win that both systems think Dozier will add in 2017 and 2018, and would have made Dozier an upgrade over what the Dodgers already had in a way that Forsythe is not. And that’s equalizing the PAs, which isn’t fair to Dozier, who has been one of the most durable players in the game the last three years, while Forsythe has only played more than 130 games in a season once in his career."

 

Found this on fangraphs. I think the part in bold provides very good reasoning for the Twins holding out and that Dozier is more than marginally better than Forsythe. 

 

FWIW, this piece was written by Dave Cameron, who as we know is very high on De Leon. He even stated last week he didn't think Forsythe was worth De Leon 1 for 1...

[ThejacKmp]

 

Or, the 2B market stays the same. that's also a legit possibility. 

 

Or the Twins are a contender and don't deal Dozier. Also a legit possibility. This is why they play the games.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Dozier has been durable, but I really don't think there is a knock on Forsythe's durability yet (at least I haven't seen a good case for that yet). He was a utility player for a few years, and just missed a solid month in his 2 years as a starter (and came back fine from it). I haven't seen anything about a series of nagging injuries for him or anything.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Or the Twins are a contender and don't deal Dozier. Also a legit possibility. This is why they play the games.

 

you think the Twins being a contender this year is a legit possibility? we disagree on that. As does pretty much every projection system and Vegas.

[Squirrel]

 

you think the Twins being a contender this year is a legit possibility? we disagree on that. As does pretty much every projection system and Vegas.

Meh ... it's a possibility ... just not a probability. But I get what you mean, and don't disagree, just that ... stranger things have happened even if well out of the realm of probable.

[Mike Sixel]

because some of you don't visit the other thread.....

 

Bork
1:45 How high is the risk on De Leon?

Eric A Longenhagen
1:45 Probably higher than is usual for an arm that's had that kind of success at Triple-A. Injuries, had weight issues in college.
And that fastball can be pretty flat. Some are worried he's going to be homer prone.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Meh ... it's a possibility ... just not a probability. But I get what you mean, and don't disagree, just that ... stranger things have happened even if well out of the realm of probable.

 

Companies run on probabilities, not hope or whatever. If the Twins are building this roster (they aren't, imo) based on hope, that's an issue for long term success....

[TheLeviathan]

 

Companies run on probabilities, not hope or whatever. If the Twins are building this roster (they aren't, imo) based on hope, that's an issue for long term success....

 

Pfft, I'm going to go buy a yacht and then on my way home buy the lottery ticket I plan to pay for it with.

 

What could go wrong?

[drjim]

 

Pfft, I'm going to go buy a yacht and then on my way home buy the lottery ticket I plan to pay for it with.

 

What could go wrong?

 

50/50 chance to win the lottery. You either win or you don't.

[glunn]

Moderator note -- if you want to discuss moderator decisions please do this in the Minncentric forum.