POTUS Donald Trump

[USAFChief]

Just because the Russia story is out of the news cycle doesn't mean that there won't be indictments, perhaps followed by impeachment.  Mueller runs a tight ship, and would prefer to operate outside of the news cycle anyway.   There's already a prima facie case against Trump on obstruction of justice -- but that probably won't create enough political cache to motivate impeachment, esp. from Republicans, perhaps largely complicit.  Mueller's goal is probably to indict Manafort, Flynn, among others for collusion-like charges; that, plus Trump's obstruction may force Congress' hand on impeachment, or usher resignation.  

 

All that said, A Pence White House (or Ryan White House) probably is a worse outcome, because the policy largely stays the same and the rhetoric becomes more tactful allowing for their agenda to take hold.

 

Instead of sitting around hoping for miracles, how about working towards reclaiming the ballot box?

 

Stop being on the wrong side of so many issues, to start with.

[USAFChief]

I hate this defeatest attitude.  You don't think the political landscape has changed at all since Trump's election.  I know many here in Arizona who voted for Trump and have buyer's remorse, I'm not sure a Bannon-candidate will be as successful as you believe.

We'll see.

[drjim]

A Trump impeachment is a political decision. There is already more than enough there to get rid of him if the Congress so desires. But there is tax reform and other stuff to get done.

 

I don't think the Mueller investigation will provide such a clear smoking gun that there will be no choice but to get rid of him. The evidence is right in front of our faces.

[Mike Sixel]

 

We'll see. What Bannon has likely done here in Arizona, for example is created a situation where a pretty decent moderate, Jeff Flake, will be replaced by a fire breathing far right zealot. A Democrat can't win, and the R winner will certainly be far worse than Flake.

 

Agreed, and my RW cousin loves it! He's totally hooked on breitbart, conspiracy theories, all kinds of stuff. 

 

IMO, the GOP is swinging way right on social issues and whatever direction you call "give even more money to the rich".....I still think a legit revolution and riots are in my kids' future....

[drjim]

 

Agreed, and my RW cousin loves it! He's totally hooked on breitbart, conspiracy theories, all kinds of stuff. 

 

IMO, the GOP is swinging way right on social issues and whatever direction you call "give even more money to the rich".....I still think a legit revolution and riots are in my kids' future....

 

On the plus side, does seem most of the energy of RW angst comes from older generations. Riots, violence and revolutions are usually the currency of the young.

 

Economic growth often covers a lot of problems.

[Badsmerf]

We'll see. What Bannon has likely done here in Arizona, for example is created a situation where a pretty decent moderate, Jeff Flake, will be replaced by a fire breathing far right zealot. A Democrat can't win, and the R winner will certainly be far worse than Flake.

I think you are overestimating the conservative vote in Arizona. I think there is a very real chance the Senate could be completely blue in 2 years. If Ward is the nominee, it shouldn't be hard to beat her. McCain could retire at any moment and in Arizona they have special elections to fill Senate seats.

 

Trump policies will not be good for the majority of Americans. That shouldn't be hard to convey.

[drjim]

 

I think you are overestimating the conservative vote in Arizona. I think there is a very real chance the Senate could be completely blue in 2 years. If Ward is the nominee, it shouldn't be hard to beat her. McCain could retire at any moment and in Arizona they have special elections to fill Senate seats.

Trump policies will not be good for the majority of Americans. That shouldn't be hard to convey.

 

They can get away with the current policies to a point while the economy/stock market is still doing ok, but as soon as a recession hits people will realize that primordial screams don't put money in their pocket or provide health coverage. 

 

If a slowdown hits the middle of next year and is fully felt by November the House seems like it would be a massacre.

[Badsmerf]

The problem I have with that, is the economy did fairly well under Obama. I think it's fair to say, Trump has lately benefited this year from the stability of the last 8 years. That didn't stop the Trump base from believing the economy was in bad shape. There hasn't been a single economic policy Trump has proposed that would help middle class or lower people.

 

I do agree, stagnant job growth would destroy the republicans. However, they have been fighting a war on numbers for years now. Bad numbers will quickly be called fake and bias. This will happen sooner or later.

[drjim]

 

The problem I have with that, is the economy did fairly well under Obama. I think it's fair to say, Trump has lately benefited this year from the stability of the last 8 years. That didn't stop the Trump base from believing the economy was in bad shape. There hasn't been a single economic policy Trump has proposed that would help middle class or lower people.

I do agree, stagnant job growth would destroy the republicans. However, they have been fighting a war on numbers for years now. Bad numbers will quickly be called fake and bias. This will happen sooner or later.

 

The economy did ok under Obama, and I agree that he left it in solid footing, but much of the gains recently have gone to the richest individuals, and wages for working class, and increasingly the middle class, have been stagnant for a long time. Without commenting on the individual who did and how sincere he may be, it was credible for someone to run as an economic populist and saying that the elites are screwing you, and that immigrants are big reason for that. This was especially effective when the opponent was someone who has deep Washington ties, had just taken hundreds of thousands for making speeches to big banks, and was an advocate for more open borders.

 

And while I agree his policies have done little to address this, mostly nothing has happened. If the tax reform passes in a way that has been described, it would be a strike against this coalition as a giveaway to the rich, while also infuriating the professional class that will likely see a tax INCREASE. That combined with a downturn in the economy would be a death blow.

 

While yes there is a war on numbers, people won't completely ignore them, and at the end of the day they will ask what good has come from this political arrangement. In reality, a Dem nominee only needs to flip 1-2% of the vote, or even better, bring back out some the people who voted for Obama but stayed home for Clinton. This will be true for the midterms too.

[USAFChief]

I think you are overestimating the conservative vote in Arizona. I think there is a very real chance the Senate could be completely blue in 2 years. If Ward is the nominee, it shouldn't be hard to beat her. McCain could retire at any moment and in Arizona they have special elections to fill Senate seats.

 

Trump policies will not be good for the majority of Americans. That shouldn't be hard to convey.

We'll see. My bet is no D can win a statewide race in AZ any time soon.

[jimmer]

Yet another reason to avoid Arizona.

[Mr. Brooks]

Arizona loves Joe Arpio, who is a vile man, and elected Jan Breuer, and someone thinks they'll go blue sometime soon?

Have to admire the optimism I guess.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Instead of sitting around hoping for miracles, how about working towards reclaiming the ballot box?

Stop being on the wrong side of so many issues, to start with.

I'm not sure how you read my post as waiting for a miracle, when I conclude that Pence will be worse for the Dems longterm.  

 

The Dems absolutely should be working to get elected in their own right, by their own ideas.  And not as an alternative to crazy and evil. 

[PseudoSABR]

 

Arizona loves Joe Arpio, who is a vile man, and elected Jan Breuer, and someone thinks they'll go blue sometime soon?
Have to admire the optimism I guess.

Joe Arpaio lost in the most recent election by ten percent, in the very red Maricopa county.   No doubt there are a lot of Trump true believers, but there's also a lot of Republicans like Flake and McCain, that are more libertarian or principled religious.

 

Not having a Clinton on the ballot will be a boon to Democrats both in 2018 and 2020 in Arizona (and every where else).

[Badsmerf]

Clinton only lost Arizona by 3.5 points. With the way it is trending, I think it's a lot more realistic to see it blue in 2 years and purple thereafter. A state doesn't elect 2 moderate republicans to the Senate and then get on the crazy train.

[stringer bell]

It's an uphill fight for a Democrat, but if the economy slips at all, I think Arizona is in play.

 

Besides Trump's cluelessness, crassness, and narcissism, I can't think of one proposal he has made that is truly popular. Repealing Obamacare failed in part because the Republican proposals were far worse than the existing law. Now it is tax reform, and again Trump and the Republican's proposals are at about 30%.

 

Finally, if anyone is paying attention, Republicans have failed to govern. Despite having a majority in both houses of Congress and the Presidency, they have passed little meaningful legislation. If an election in 2018 is a referendum on Republicans ability to govern, they should be tossed.

[Mike Sixel]

They just passed legislation taking away your right to class action sue financial institutions like Wells Fargo and Equifax......

[ashbury]

Clinton only lost Arizona by 3.5 points. With the way it is trending, I think it's a lot more realistic to see it blue in 2 years and purple thereafter. A state doesn't elect 2 moderate republicans to the Senate and then get on the crazy train.

Neither senator ran as a moderate. Libruls are only canonizing Flake now as a matter of convenience, with a common foe. McCain goes wackadoodle every now and then.

[jimmer]

 

They just passed legislation taking away your right to class action sue financial institutions like Wells Fargo and Equifax......

Of course, GOP is all about taking care of the rich and privileged. 

[Badsmerf]

Neither senator ran as a moderate. Libruls are only canonizing Flake now as a matter of convenience, with a common foe. McCain goes wackadoodle every now and then.

There is a difference between saying I'm a moderate like Lisa Murkowski, and making sure you win your primary.

[kydoty]

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/10/25/us/girl-cerebral-palsy-detained-immigration.html

 

This is what happens with a nation's leader tells its majority population that they are oppressed, and that "these people" are the source of all their problems.  They become sub-human in the minds of those under the leader's authority and the population. 

 

This has been proven in practice for centuries if not longer.  And yet we as a species still refuse to learn from the past. 

[drjim]

This is the generic House ballot right now. I can't think of much more that will happen to really make it better for Rs, and I can think of a lot that will make it worse. This is shaping up to be a bloodbath that even gerrymandering can't fully prevent, and may exasperate if a tipping point is hit. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

This is the generic House ballot right now. I can't think of much more that will happen to really make it better for Rs, and I can think of a lot that will make it worse. This is shaping up to be a bloodbath that even gerrymandering can't fully prevent, and may exasperate if a tipping point is hit. 

 

 

You are a lot more optimistic than I am

[drjim]

You are a lot more optimistic than I am

I don't think I'm especially optimistic, I just still believe in data and historical trends. A couple of key points:

-Trump is historically unpopular

-The generic ballot shows a massive gap

-The Rs are cracking up more than Ds, partially due to minimal legislative achievements, don't think it will get especially better for Rs either

-Presidents almost always lose midterm seats

-Voters almost never affirm unified government control

-There is a significant fundraising gap between Ds and Rs

-Data on retirements, challengers announced, etc, strongly tilt towards Ds

-Data in special elections so far confirms a strong D shift

 

Obviously the election needs to be executed, but it is all lining up.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't think I'm especially optimistic, I just still believe in data and historical trends. A couple of key points:
-Trump is historically unpopular
-The generic ballot shows a massive gap
-The Rs are cracking up more than Ds, partially due to minimal legislative achievements, don't think it will get especially better for Rs either
-Presidents almost always lose midterm seats
-Voters almost never affirm unified government control
-There is a significant fundraising gap between Ds and Rs
-Data on retirements, challengers announced, etc, strongly tilt towards Ds
-Data in special elections so far confirms a strong D shift

Obviously the election needs to be executed, but it is all lining up.

 

Losing by 5 points is still losing (special elections).....I believe in:

 

the power of gerrymandering to offset history

the power of voter suppression to offset history

the power of divisiveness, bigotry, and fear

 

I also believe in the LONG TERM maturation and growth of freedom and other "liberal" principles like empathy......I'm just not convinced we are at a tipping point yet.

[PseudoSABR]

Indictment(s).  Story not going away anyway soon. 

[drjim]

Indictment(s). Story not going away anyway soon.

Likely just Manafort, perhaps even separate from campaign.

[gunnarthor]

Couple indictments today for Manafort and Gates. Hopefully this isn't the end.

[drjim]

 

Couple indictments today for Manafort and Gates. Hopefully this isn't the end.

 

No chance it's the end of indictments.

 

Remains to be seen if they fire Mueller.

[drjim]

It seems, right now, that Papadopolous is a much bigger deal. But I also suspect today's indictment was just an entry point to get a lot more information.