Cory's 2017 Blueprint, 2.0

[Cory Engelhardt]

Please rip away...

 

1) Trevor Plouffe, gone, DFA'd
2) Hector Santiago, 9 million
3) Eduardo Escobar, 3.5 million
4) Kyle Gibson, 2.5 million
5) Brandon Kintzler, 2.5 million
6) Ryan Pressly, 1.5 million
19 million

 

Trades

1) Brian Dozier and Stephen Gonsalves to the Dodgers for Jose De Leon, Yadier Alvarez and Yusniel Diaz.

#32, 91 and 93 in MLB pipeline's top 100 currently.

2) Trade Ervin Santana and Adalberto Mejia to the Mariners for Taijuan Walker

Years of control are about the same (if Santana hits his inning mark this year, his option years kick in) and Walker is about 9 years younger. Walker is still searching to hit his potential, while Santana is more of a sure thing, and Seattle wants to make the playoffs asap.

3) Trade Engelb Vielma and Felix Jorge to Cincinnati for Zack Cozart

Amazing on defense at SS, he is signed through 2017, and if he is healthy and plays gold glove level ss, the Twins could theoretically slap the QO on him for 2018.

 

Free Agents

1) Sign Jason Castro, 3 years 42 million, 14 million per

2) Sign Josh Reddick, 3 years 36 million, 12 million per

3) Sign Drew Storen, 2 years 15 million, 7.5 million per

Two guys who play good defense and also take good at bats, or at least have really good walk rates. The Twins absolutely need more guys who don't strike out a ton, and these two would provide that, along with solid defense.

 

Roster

C Castro 14 million

1B Mauer 23 million (only starts against righties)

2B Polanco 500K

SS Cozart 4 million

3B Sano 500k

LF Kepler 500k

CF Buxton 500k

RF Reddick 12 million

DH Park 3 million

 

Bench

Murphy 500k

Vargas 500k (Vargas starts against lefties)

Escobar 3.5 million (backup at 3B and SS)

Rosario 500k (Rosario plays all outfield spots and only hits against righties)

 

Total 63 million for the position players

 

Rotation

Gibson 2.5 million

Trevor May 500k

Taijuan Walker 750k

Hector Santiago 9 million

Jose De Leon 500k

 

Bullpen

JO Berrios 500k

Drew Storen 7.5 million

JT Chagrois 500k

Taylor Rogers 500k

Brandon Kintzler 2.5 million

Ryan Pressly 1.5 million

Buddy Boshers 500k

 

Total 26.75 million for pitching staff, total of 89.75 million for team, give or take raises for the MLB minimum. This does not include Hughes and Perkins, who I don't have on here because I don't want to plan to count on them. The total will be over 100 million with their contracts being counted, obviously.

 

What do you think?

[Mike Sixel]

Not bad, except: 

 

wth?

 

3) Trade Engelb Vielma and Felix Jorge to Cincinnati for Zack Cozart
Amazing on defense at SS, he is signed through 2017, and if he is healthy and plays gold glove level ss, the Twins could theoretically slap the QO on him for 2018.

 

This might be the worst idea ever. Why would I trade those two for a 1 year rental?

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Not bad, except: 

 

wth?

 

3) Trade Engelb Vielma and Felix Jorge to Cincinnati for Zack Cozart
Amazing on defense at SS, he is signed through 2017, and if he is healthy and plays gold glove level ss, the Twins could theoretically slap the QO on him for 2018.

 

This might be the worst idea ever. Why would I trade those two for a 1 year rental?

 

Mostly because I don't see Jorge ever making the majors (it is possible, I guess) and I want a steady defender at short who is ready to help the pitching staff right now. Plus, Cozart could be more than 1 year if the Twins choose.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I forgot about Duffey! He will be in the bullpen for sure, switching out with Boshers, probably

[Mike Sixel]

Fair, not what I'd do, but fair.

 

And, thanks for doing this.

[PseudoSABR]

I appreciate the creative thinking but why would the M's make that trade?  If Seattle is willing to deal Walker they probably can get a much better established starter than Santana or net a much better prospect than Meija.  The M's are far more likely to simply hold on to Walker as he's at the age/experience where he should be hitting his prime.

 

In general I don't think it's wise to trade away our very limited pitching prospects as part of packages to obtain supposedly better pitching prospects.    If we need to include prospects in deals, we should deal from positional player depth.

[gunnarthor]

The idea of adding Reddick and making Rosario a 4th outfielder is somewhat appealing to me.  Reddick isn't an ironman so Rosario will still get lots of at-bats but if his manager doesn't let him bat against lefties (he SLUGGED .289 against them last year) and uses him as a late inning defensive replacement he could be a real nice bang for your buck piece.  I know the defensive stats are all over the place on him but I tend to think he's pretty solid across the board and certainly a better fit in center than Danny Santana.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Mostly because I don't see Jorge ever making the majors (it is possible, I guess) and I want a steady defender at short who is ready to help the pitching staff right now. Plus, Cozart could be more than 1 year if the Twins choose.

 

If you want a defensive whiz, just keep Vielma.  No reason to flip him for a glove first SS with a year left when you can keep Vielma (a glove first SS) with 6 years left.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I appreciate the creative thinking but why would the M's make that trade?  If Seattle is willing to deal Walker they probably can get a much better established starter than Santana or net a much better prospect than Meija.  The M's are far more likely to simply hold on to Walker as he's at the age/experience where he should be hitting his prime.

 

In general I don't think it's wise to trade away our very limited pitching prospects as part of packages to obtain supposedly better pitching prospects.    If we need to include prospects in deals, we should deal from positional player depth.

 

Yeah, I think that if Erv is traded, it won't be for an ML ready pitcher. Those types of trades don't happen except in the case of a guy who has had time run out (and Walker isn't in that boat). 

[sthpstm]

Berrios is in the bullpen because you think he belongs there long term or something else?

[TheLeviathan]

If that Walker thing was reasonable, I'd love it, but I just can't see it happening for reasons already listed.

 

I'm on board for Castro and Storen though.  I'm also on board for finding an elite fielder at SS, whomever that might be.

[beckmt]

Twins have one in Vielma,  just doesn't hit.  No need to trade for a one year rental.  Deal with Dodgers perhaps, but want  Uries, not DeLeon(he projects to a #2 or #3 not an ace).

Good shot though, with a couple of ruff spots.

Also think Gibson should be gone, he is the classic #5 starter and that spot should be used for starter tryouts this year.  Would also use spot to take a flyer for a rebound case.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I appreciate the creative thinking but why would the M's make that trade?  If Seattle is willing to deal Walker they probably can get a much better established starter than Santana or net a much better prospect than Meija.  The M's are far more likely to simply hold on to Walker as he's at the age/experience where he should be hitting his prime.

 

In general I don't think it's wise to trade away our very limited pitching prospects as part of packages to obtain supposedly better pitching prospects.    If we need to include prospects in deals, we should deal from positional player depth.

 

I look at it more as, Ervin Santana TODAY is absolutely a more established starting pitcher than Taijuan Walker is TODAY. The hope is that Taijuan becomes an ace, but if Seattle wants to win NOW, of even possibly have a better chance in 2017, they could use an upgrade in their rotation. And maybe Mejia, as the 2nd piece, would have to be upgraded. I don't know. I went for Walker because Brandon Warne found that on Derek Falvey's youtube channel, he had a bunch of scouting videos of players (mostly Cleveland Indians) but one of those players was Taijuan Walker. If Falvey likes Walker, but hasn't been able to make the pieces work with what he had in Cleveland (for whatever reason) maybe he is a guy that the Twins are able to look at now.

 

And I am totally ok trading other prospects than the ones I mentioned. I do think Romero/Jay/Stewart all have higher end potential than either Gonsalves or Mejia (in terms of, I see both of them topping out as #4's.) But, I would be up for trading other prospects. I don't know that I would trade Gordon or Kiriloff, but everyone else in the system can be up for grabs.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Twins have one in Vielma,  just doesn't hit.  No need to trade for a one year rental.  Deal with Dodgers perhaps, but want  Uries, not DeLeon(he projects to a #2 or #3 not an ace).

Good shot though, with a couple of ruff spots.

Also think Gibson should be gone, he is the classic #5 starter and that spot should be used for starter tryouts this year.  Would also use spot to take a flyer for a rebound case.

 I'm up for Gibson and Santiago having their spots changed too. I think Gibson, having one more crack with a training staff led by Falvey et al could be worthwhile as a back end guy, especially since he should make less than 3 million. But if a better option comes around with more upside, so be it.

 

Vielma, if you can say for certain he is ready to give professional at bats at the MLB level, then I don't do the trade. I know for certain Cozart (when healthy) provides gold glove level defense at short. I want that on my roster, especially to help the runs allowed.

[nicksaviking]

Good ideas.

 

I'm also not a fan of one year of Cozart though. I think the team would be hard pressed to see him worth about an 18M QO in 2018 also, I don't think that bat is going to play well at all going from Cincinnati to Minnesota.

 

I'm also not as high on Reddick as most others are either. His OBP has only been decent the past couple of years, prior to that it was league average at best and his power is always enigmatic and only one lefty so far has had consistent success at Target Field in the power department and that was a HOF caliber guy with over 600 career HR to his name. He's always injured and/or slumps in the 2nd half too.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Berrios is in the bullpen because you think he belongs there long term or something else?

 Berrios I put in the bullpen as this was my roster day 1. I think Berrios makes 20-30 starts next year, but it is good to have 6-7-8 starters ready to go. I don't think Santiago, for 1, pitches for the Twins all year in 2017. Gibson maybe also. And really, if Berrios outpitches Santiago and is more ready to go day 1, then he is in the rotation day 1.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Twins have one in Vielma,  just doesn't hit.  No need to trade for a one year rental.  Deal with Dodgers perhaps, but want  Uries, not DeLeon(he projects to a #2 or #3 not an ace).

Good shot though, with a couple of ruff spots.

Also think Gibson should be gone, he is the classic #5 starter and that spot should be used for starter tryouts this year.  Would also use spot to take a flyer for a rebound case.

 

I see absolutely no way the Dodgers trade Urias. Not for Dozier as the headline anyway.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Yeah, I think that if Erv is traded, it won't be for an ML ready pitcher. Those types of trades don't happen except in the case of a guy who has had time run out (and Walker isn't in that boat). 

 

I was leaning this too. My trade for Ervin, if it wasn't for Walker, would have probably been to the Rangers. There are some prospects I like in their system that are close to MLB ready (I'm thinking Brett Martin, Michael Matuella etc.) so if I was leaning that direction, that is where I would go.

[Doomtints]

 

Mostly because I don't see Jorge ever making the majors (it is possible, I guess) and I want a steady defender at short who is ready to help the pitching staff right now. Plus, Cozart could be more than 1 year if the Twins choose.

 

Jorge is 22 years old and had his first taste of professional ball (A+ or higher) last year.  Why toss him aside so quickly?  

 

He looks like decent reliever material to me.  I would bet money he makes the majors.

 

This report pegs him as a #4 guy, which might be optimistic considering he has two good pitches.  If one of his other pitches improves, why not be a starter?  Nevertheless, Jorge's floor is a reliever and he could probably do that right now in the majors.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_pit.php?reportid=408

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Jorge is 22 years old and had his first taste of professional ball (A+ or higher) last year.  Why toss him aside so quickly?  

 

I'm not tossing him aside. I'm looking at him as an asset to use to acquire another asset. He will be 23 in less than 2 months, and he doesn't have really any overpowering or above average offerings. I do think he could have a chance to make the majors as a #4 or #5 starter, or at least middle reliever, (especially with his control and his ability to limit walks, which is impressive) but I don't think you will find anyone that projects him as a middle or top of the rotation starter in the major leagues. Still, he has value. No doubt.

[beckmt]

 

I see absolutely no way the Dodgers trade Urias. Not for Dozier as the headline anyway.

Then I move on to other clubs who want second baseman.  If you want to play, you have to pay.  And some club in a win now mode will give the Twins close to want they want, even if you have to package another lower (not Romero) starter in with Dozier and take some lower (A) type prospects in return.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Then I move on to other clubs who want second baseman.  If you want to play, you have to pay.  And some club in a win now mode will give the Twins close to want they want, even if you have to package another lower (not Romero) starter in with Dozier and take some lower (A) type prospects in return.

 

I could see Urias being moved in a deal for Chris Sale. Dozier and the Twins top 3 prospects isn't enough for Urias.

To that end, if the Twins move on to other teams, and then circle back to the Dodgers, I still think the Dodgers have a need at 2nd base and the prospect power to give the best package to the Twins in a trade. I just don't see any way the Twins acquire Urias with a deal centered around Dozier.

[beckmt]

 

I could see Urias being moved in a deal for Chris Sale. Dozier and the Twins top 3 prospects isn't enough for Urias.

To that end, if the Twins move on to other teams, and then circle back to the Dodgers, I still think the Dodgers have a need at 2nd base and the prospect power to give the best package to the Twins in a trade. I just don't see any way the Twins acquire Urias with a deal centered around Dozier.

Then maybe the Pirates or the Mets would be a better option.  Do not want less than a sure #2 in a package which includes Dozier.  Pirates fit because Dozier is a 2 year cheap option and maybe send one of the #3 starter prospects back and add some lower level prospects coming this way.  Falvey may have a list from some of these clubs he wants,  we will see if he is a good as he was with Cleveland in identifing lower level talent. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Then maybe the Pirates or the Mets would be a better option.  Do not want less than a sure #2 in a package which includes Dozier.  Pirates fit because Dozier is a 2 year cheap option and maybe send one of the #3 starter prospects back and add some lower level prospects coming this way.  Falvey may have a list from some of these clubs he wants,  we will see if he is a good as he was with Cleveland in identifing lower level talent. 

 

I went with the Dodger's offer that I threw out because 1) De Leon is potentially a #2, maybe as early as 2017 but more likely 2018 ongoing, and 2) I view Yadier Alvarez as a potential #1 with his 70 grade fastball and 55 grade slider. I'm fine waiting until 2019 for Alvarez, but he is absolutely the guy I target from the Dodgers, even more so than De Leon, for his potential. I don't know that the Mets or Pirates have anyone that has as HIGH of potential as Yadier Alvarez. I admit, I may be too bullish on him, but I see him as being a potential top of the rotation starter, and that's why I make that deal.

 

Also, Yusniel Diaz, the outfielder I put in the deal, probably could start at some point in 2018. He would absolutely help our minor league rankings, and be a solid prospect to build around and come up at some point in the next 2-3 years.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I could see Urias being moved in a deal for Chris Sale. Dozier and the Twins top 3 prospects isn't enough for Urias.

To that end, if the Twins move on to other teams, and then circle back to the Dodgers, I still think the Dodgers have a need at 2nd base and the prospect power to give the best package to the Twins in a trade. I just don't see any way the Twins acquire Urias with a deal centered around Dozier.

 

Ya, that's not even close to true on Dozier and the Twins top 3 prospects. No chance. You are way underestimating both Dozier and the Twins' top prospects.

 

Why trade for Sale, if you have Urias? Why not just keep Urias in that deal? A

[operation mindcrime]

I enjoyed reading your plan enge0280. I think you did a great job!!! \m/

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Ya, that's not even close to true on Dozier and the Twins top 3 prospects. No chance. You are way underestimating both Dozier and the Twins' top prospects.

 

Why trade for Sale, if you have Urias? Why not just keep Urias in that deal? A

 

Because Sale is, right now, arguably one of the best 10 pitchers in baseball. Urias may very well get to that tier at some point, but if the Dodgers want to win now, they are making moves for Dozier and Sale etc.

Dozier does not have the value of Sale. Why is this even up for debate? Urias is the consensus top prospect in baseball, no?

[Mike Sixel]

If you are so sure Urias is an ace, this year or next, why would the Dodgers trade him for an Ace who is older, more likely to get hurt and costs them Urias and others to obtain? Why not just keep Urias?

 

And, if you don't think Urias is and ace this year or next, then Dozier and a mid-tier prospect should be enough to get him (if you think Dozier is 2016 Dozier or close to it).

 

You can't think he's not an ace, so trade him for one, and that he's an ace, so he costs more than Dozier and 1 prospect. IMO.

[Willihammer]

The thing about Urias specifically is he is so young the Dodgers could let the Whities figure out if he's an ace or not and then lock him up when he hits FA at age 25 or whatever, and in the meantime get 3 years of a proven #1 to pair with Kershaw. Assuming the Whities didn't lock him up of course but he is represented by Boras.

[Mike Sixel]

Urias and what for Sale, do you suppose, because I can't see the Sox taking back only 1 player.