My Offseason plan

[diehardtwinsfan]

Until Brock resurrects the offseason forum, I'll just link this here

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/84/entry-8614-my-2016-offseason-plan/

 

Flame away!!!

[jimmer]

My offseason plan is to lose the weight I gained from having hernia operation followed by tearing my ACL and the inactivity those two events caused. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

good plan.  I recommend a low carb diet.  Works quite well and I can still eat wings.

 

Just saying though... watching baseball and inactivity go hand in hand, unless throwing your remote at the TV counts.

[NIATwinsFan]

My plan would include space on the 40 man to have room for a rule 5 Pick.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

My plan would include space on the 40 man to have room for a rule 5 Pick.

 

I guess to me that depends on who gets left unprotected. We already have a few bullpen projects, and is our project better than some other teams?  Perhaps a defense first MI type guy with some hitting upside might work there too at which the Twins could leave Vielma unprotected.

[DocBauer]

Overall I like your plan. We could go back and forth and around and around...as could we all, and have...on the 40 man roster, but I'm leaving that part alone, if for no other reason than trades haven't happened yet anyway.

 

But there are a couple points in your plan I'd like to hit kn:

 

* I completely agree on signing a quality veteran 4th OF. I've been advocating this more some time now. Said FA provides depth, insurance in case of injury or demotion by anyone to get straightened out, and if a RH bat, helps balance he LH bats of Kepler and Rosario. Further, it doesn't force Grossman to be the 4th OF, and let's guys like Palka and Granite play every day in Rochester where they belong to begin 2017.

 

*I also agree on a veteran closer type, possibly on the bounce back. It helps stabilize the bullpen, doesn't force someone like Chargois to assume the role immediately, and may provide another mid season flip candidate. However, if it's someone like Storen, and he finds himself, he's young enough to even be considered as a re-sign. I don't know that I'd keep Kintzler ND said FA though. Kintzler may be useful, but with only many young arms needing opportunity, I think I'd let him go.

 

*I don't agree on Vielma as the utility guy. Regardless if the Twins go get a quality glove man to play SS for the next year or two until Gordon is ready, (possibly Vielma), they will need a more proven player to finish the infield.

 

* I think I keep Santiago at this point. He's not great, but is solid, not yet 30, gives us a possible LHSP, and especially if we do find a taker for Santana, we're getting stretched thin in the rotation without him. And you always need more thann5 starters during a season. If someone gets hurt elsewhere, early or later, he's another flip candidate.

[HitInAPinch]

My ginormous plan it to sit and wait to hear all the announcements being held up by the Indians being in the World Series    

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm trying to conjure up the spirit of Jose Mesa on the tribe... that city doesn't deserve a baseball team...  I should know; I grew up there. 

[Rosterman]

Be interesting to see how the admin looks at the Rule 5. The Twins could very well carry a guy near ready for the majors yet who remains unprotected...possibly with a lot more upside than a minors free agent. Even if the guy has to go south in 2018 for more minor league time.

 

The big question coming out of the chute is how much will the Twins be in rebuilding mode, or will they start to build a new team with trades, signings et al and go outside the organization for 50% or more of the roster.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Be interesting to see how the admin looks at the Rule 5. The Twins could very well carry a guy near ready for the majors yet who remains unprotected...possibly with a lot more upside than a minors free agent. Even if the guy has to go south in 2018 for more minor league time.

 

The big question coming out of the chute is how much will the Twins be in rebuilding mode, or will they start to build a new team with trades, signings et al and go outside the organization for 50% or more of the roster.

I think it's rebuilding, but at this point, they need to be targeting more ML ready pitching.  The core is here.  Defensively, I think long term that outlook is good too.  Yeah, Sano will be below average, and that may take a few years, but position by position they look average to better for the most part.  Buxton/Rosario/Kepler should all be above average sooner than later (assuming Buxton figures out the bat), and I'm not worried about Mauer/Polanco/Escobar either.  Catching needs fixing and pitching needs fixing.  Pitching needs it far worse.  If we wait around for guys like Gonsalves, Stewart, Jorge, Romero, and Jay, you won't have pitching ready until 2019/20 at the earliest.  That's too long as now much of the core is hitting FA/getting expensive. 

 

I think the prudent rebuild move is to add some upside to the rotation now.  They have that in Berrios, May, and Mejia (though the exact amount of upside is certainly up for debate)... heck, even Gibson is still in that range where he could suddenly put it together and be that pitcher we all hoped for.  Problem is that some of those guys will likely fail, and the best way to mitigate against that is to have more arms with upside.  2018 may provide a way to get that in FA, but I wouldn't expect more than one big signing (and that assumes Jim P will open up the check book).  Worst case, you're still waiting till 2019/20.  Problem is that if they don't make some prudent moves on the pitching front, it will be a long wait.

[Mike Sixel]

My off season plan is very complex.....but for the Twins, I like this one.

[Doomtints]

I like your plan.  The only criticism I would make is that Mauer is not likely to play any position other than 1B (or DH).  The 3B/OF stuff isn't going to happen in my opinion.  There are 3 big reasons:

 

1)  Any position other than 1B will have a higher concussion risk.  Mauer thinks that the next concussion he gets will end his career and evidence suggests he is right.  

2)  The Twins need to give him time off.  Having him be the backup utility guy so others can get time off will wear him down quickly.

3)  His likely bad defense at 3B and in the OF would put him (and others) at risk for injury.  

 

In the absence of Mauer being able to back up these positions, who would the Twins need to add to the roster?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I like your plan.  The only criticism I would make is that Mauer is not likely to play any position other than 1B (or DH).  The 3B/OF stuff isn't going to happen in my opinion.  There are 3 big reasons:

 

1)  Any position other than 1B will have a higher concussion risk.  Mauer thinks that the next concussion he gets will end his career and evidence suggests he is right.  

2)  The Twins need to give him time off.  Having him be the backup utility guy so others can get time off will wear him down quickly.

3)  His likely bad defense at 3B and in the OF would put him (and others) at risk for injury.  

 

In the absence of Mauer being able to back up these positions, who would the Twins need to add to the roster?

 

You may be right about Mauer, though I would argue pretty heavily that the only major difference between 1st and 3rd is the need for arm strength (which Mauer has).  1B is a hot corner with a lefty at the plate.  Sure, there may be more RH hitters out there, but it's not like LHers don't hit scorchers down the line. There should be a lower chance for collisions at 3B too since you aren't jumping to catch high throws and potentially landing on an advancing runner.  Yes, OF is a different animal, though I'm quite convinced Mauer can be average defensively out there, and that's all I'd really ask if he's getting the occasional start.

 

But, if Mauer only wants to do 1B/DH, then Mauer is going to find himself on the bench a lot more.  He's going to get plenty of PT due to injuries and what not, but the Twins need to figure out what they have in Park and Vargas, and the only way to do that is play them... Now if they stink, then Mauer will be playing every day... if not, he'd better get used to playing other positions if he wants to be more than a 23M late inning bench bat.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't see the wisdom in signing a traditional "fourth outfielder".

 

The Twins have three young players who need reps in the outfield. All of these players, to a varying degree, can play center field. One of them is exemplary, another is adequate, the third is passable for a short period of time.

 

But what these players lack is the ability to hit both left- and right-handed pitching. Their 2016 splits:

 

Buxton

RHP: .225 .277 .426 .704

LHP: .223 .299 .436 .735

 

Rosario

RHP: .270 .293 .459 .752

LHP: .263 .305 .289 .594

 

Kepler

RHP: 248 .325 .468 .792

LHP: .203 .273 .322 .595

 

The Twins currently have two young lefty outfielders who can't hit lefties worth a damn. To me, the smart move is to not focus on defense with a fourth outfielder, but instead focus on picking up a guy who mashes lefties and rotate him into the lineup on a regular basis. It also gives you a late-inning replacement when Kepler and/or Rosario inevitably face a shutdown left-handed pitcher.

 

Use your roster to shore up weaknesses with your everyday players. I don't like how bad he is defensively but Grossman might be the guy the Twins need and he's already on the roster. In a perfect world, you'd want a guy who can hit lefties but isn't horrific in the field.

[Willihammer]

Sometimes I wonder if the Yankees would be interested in undo-ing the Murphy for Hicks trade. Or the Twins for that matter.

[jimmer]

I don't see the wisdom in signing a traditional "fourth outfielder".

 

The Twins have three young players who need reps in the outfield. All of these players, to a varying degree, can play center field. One of them is exemplary, another is adequate, the third is passable for a short period of time.

 

But what these players lack is the ability to hit both left- and right-handed pitching. Their 2016 splits:

 

Buxton

RHP: .225 .277 .426 .704

LHP: .223 .299 .436 .735

 

Rosario

RHP: .270 .293 .459 .752

LHP: .263 .305 .289 .594

 

Kepler

RHP: 248 .325 .468 .792

LHP: .203 .273 .322 .595

 

The Twins currently have two young lefty outfielders who can't hit lefties worth a damn. To me, the smart move is to not focus on defense with a fourth outfielder, but instead focus on picking up a guy who mashes lefties and rotate him into the lineup on a regular basis. It also gives you a late-inning replacement when Kepler and/or Rosario inevitably face a shutdown left-handed pitcher.

 

Use your roster to shore up weaknesses with your everyday players. I don't like how bad he is defensively but Grossman might be the guy the Twins need and he's already on the roster. In a perfect world, you'd want a guy who can hit lefties but isn't horrific in the field.

twins would be better served trying to sign or trade for a 3rd OF and let Rosario be the 4th OF, which is what he should be.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

twins would be better served trying to sign or trade for a 3rd OF and let Rosario be the 4th OF, which is what he should be.

That may ultimately be the case but the Twins are coming off a 103 loss season. There's little damage to be done by giving Rosario one more (at least partial) season to see if he takes a step forward.

 

But yeah, if Eddie continues to walk to the plate with the strategy there's no pitch he can't hit, he won't progress as a hitter.

 

Give him an offseason and part of a season with a new coaching staff and let's see what happens.

[jimmer]

That may ultimately be the case but the Twins are coming off a 103 loss season. There's little damage to be done by giving Rosario one more (at least partial) season to see if he takes a step forward.

 

But yeah, if Eddie continues to walk to the plate with the strategy there's no pitch he can't hit, he won't progress as a hitter.

 

Give him an offseason and part of a season with a new coaching staff and let's see what happens.

i get what you are saying, but the prevailing thinking around here seems to be dont bother trying to improve by trading or signing players because we lost 103 games. Are we just supposed to play the 'wait for our prospects' game and just hope it works? How many, 'lets see what we got' years do we go through? I am still at a loss as to how we are actually going to improve our roster when the prevailing thought is, dont trade Dozier, santana, or prospects and dont sign anyone.

 

This team is more than just a tweak or two away from being a decent team. This team is below average offensively and horrific on defense and pitching. We need to improve everywhere and every bit counts.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

i get what you are saying, but the prevailing thinking around here seems to be dont bother trying to improve by trading or signing players because we lost 103 games. Are we just supposed to play the 'wait for our prospects' game and just hope it works? How many, 'lets see what we got' years do we go through? I am still at a loss as to how we are actually going to improve our roster when the prevailing thought is, dont trade Dozier, santana, or prospects and dont sign anyone.

But you know that isn't my opinion at all.

 

First, drop the obvious dead weight in Suzuki, probably Plouffe, and portions of the bullpen.

 

Second, see what a Dozier and/or Santana trade can net you in prospects, preferably ones very close to MLB.

 

Third, put players in the right role to succeed. That means May to the rotation, Duffey to the bullpen, Sano to third as an experiment but probably to DH.

 

Turn Mauer into a platoon player with Park and/or Vargas.

 

Then, take the guys with actual upside and get them reps: Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios. That's your core. If you're going to win, it's with those guys leading the charge.

 

Finally, figure out the positions where you have little to no hope for near-future performance and haven't filled with trades. That's probably the rotation, bullpen, and catcher. Do what you can to patch those positions for a season, maybe two if possible.

 

Fix the obvious, glaring needs first... Then consider what to do with young players like Rosario if or when they falter or if they fail to progress to an acceptable performance level.

 

Working on guys like Rosario first seems pretty backwards to me. If Eddie stumbles in 2017, there's always next season to get another outfielder. It's not as if the Twins don't have plenty of other issues to tackle in the next four months.

[Loosey]

I'm in the trade Ervin Santana camp.  He is an almost 34 year old pitcher coming off one of his better seasons.  I am concerned he may start to decline as early as next year and by by July's trade deadline may be worth almost nothing of value in terms of trade assets.  Right now he is healthy, he will most likely not be part of the team when they are competing.  Get what you can for him now, which hopefully are near Major League ready prospects.  

 

I also am one foot in, one foot out of the trade Dozier camp.  If the Twins can net a very nice pitching prospect I say make the deal.  I liked some of the ideas of Dozier and Gibson combined for a top end pitching prospects like I read in the Pittsburgh trade scenarios yesterday.  

 

This team has lots and lots of holes to fill.  I think fill the biggest ones this year and then start plugging less obvious ones, or upgrade areas as the season progresses and into 2018.

[laloesch]

 

I'm in the trade Ervin Santana camp.  He is an almost 34 year old pitcher coming off one of his better seasons.  I am concerned he may start to decline as early as next year and by by July's trade deadline may be worth almost nothing of value in terms of trade assets.  Right now he is healthy, he will most likely not be part of the team when they are competing.  Get what you can for him now, which hopefully are near Major League ready prospects.  

 

I also am one foot in, one foot out of the trade Dozier camp.  If the Twins can net a very nice pitching prospect I say make the deal.  I liked some of the ideas of Dozier and Gibson combined for a top end pitching prospects like I read in the Pittsburgh trade scenarios yesterday.  

 

This team has lots and lots of holes to fill.  I think fill the biggest ones this year and then start plugging less obvious ones, or upgrade areas as the season progresses and into 2018.

 

I'm in the trading Santana camp as well.  I think that long term in this rebuild he is way out of the picture.  It's probably going to take at least 3 season for them to become relevant again and by then Santana is 36/37, a free agent and very possibly in decline.  I think you sell high here.  You have too.  I also think the same thing with Dozier.  For GODS SAKE sell high!  

[Loosey]

 

I'm in the trading Santana camp as well.  I think that long term in this rebuild he is way out of the picture.  It's probably going to take at least 3 season for them to become relevant again and by then Santana is 36/37, a free agent and very possibly in decline.  I think you sell high here.  You have too.  I also think the same thing with Dozier.  For GODS SAKE sell high!  

For some reason I think teams will question if Dozier can continue near 2015 levels for power.  That's why I think combining with Gibson who still has upside and could excel in NL could help nab a very nice piece.  I'm with you, I am thinking beyond 2017 and most likely into 2019 for real relevance.  SELL HIGH indeed.

[Ernestfickle22]

 

My offseason plan is to lose the weight I gained from having hernia operation followed by tearing my ACL and the inactivity those two events caused. 

best of luck too you! 

 

[Ernestfickle22]

 

For some reason I think teams will question if Dozier can continue near 2015 levels for power.  That's why I think combining with Gibson who still has upside and could excel in NL could help nab a very nice piece.  I'm with you, I am thinking beyond 2017 and most likely into 2019 for real relevance.  SELL HIGH indeed.

think they could get Urias SP, Kyle Farmer C/3B and Micah Johnson 2B/OF  from the Dodgers? 

[Mr. Brooks]

I like the plan with three changes, two of which others have mentioned. First, why do so many people want to non-tender Santiago? He is a MLB quality mid-rotation starter. He wasn't good for us last year but he was good for the Angels, a team that wasn't in a complete free fall and played competent defense. Those guys don't grow on trees. He is at least trade bait. He will be picked within a week if non-tendered, probably by the Angels. He's a definite tender.

 

Also, we already have the 4th OF in Rosario. He's reasonably competent in CF, hits some and can get hot but isn't good enough in any of the phases now to start. It makes more sense to me to pick up an Austin Jackson, John Jay or Rajai Davis type (or in my dreams, Josh Reddick or Colby Rasmus) for now until Palka, Walker or Granite is ready. Or start there if you think one of them is ready now with Rosario as the backup plan.

 

Finally, I don't understand why there are so many calls to trade Santana this off-season. By all accounts is a good clubhouse guy, he's a quality pitcher (although not a number 1, he's a decent 2 and strong 3) and is far and away the best starter we have. The young starters need someone to learn their craft from and he can fit that bill. Also, he is exactly the kind of guy you can move at mid-season and potentially get a team to overpay. I think trading him now is a very bad idea. Conversely, much as I like Brian Dozier I think trading him makes sense if we can get a decent return on the pitching side for all of the reasons others have mentioned.

 

Other than that, I really like your plan. Thanks for putting this out for discussion.

So what happens if Santana blows out his arm in May? Or puts up a 5.40 ERA in the first half?

Then you've completely wasted an asset. For what, to be a mentor?

[DocBauer]

So what happens if Santana blows out his arm in May? Or puts up a 5.40 ERA in the first half?

Then you've completely wasted an asset. For what, to be a mentor?

Point taken. And a valid point, to be sure. but injuries to anyone, including pitchers, can happen at any time, and you can't build a roster simply because player A could possibly become injured. While I don't WANT to trade Dozier, for a strong return and a place for Polanco, I'm OK with it. I'm also OK with keeping Santiago, as I've stated, while moving Santana. But with Gonsalves and Mejia both probably better off with some AAA time, I also don't have a problem keeping Santana. Yes, as a mentor to a degree. But also as a solid, quality starter. Just because we are in the midst of a youth movement...that also needs to take place on the mound...doesn't mean we should automatically punt on 2017 by dropping just anyone in to the rotation simply because they are younger.

 

By all means shop Santana and trade him if the return makes real sense. Otherwise, I'm fine keeping him initially, providing a bridge until someone else is ready for their shot. But at this point, I don't trade him just because he might get hurt or suddenly lose his stuff over night.

[DocBauer]

I know I'm repeating myself, yet again, but I strongly advocate the idea of a pair of FA signing for next season. Not because I am expecting the Twins to miraculously contend in 2017, but because it makes sense to just put together the most complete and competitive team you can for a chance to win, as long as you aren't slowing the rebuild, or blocking young talent that is ready. Even rebuilding, there is no reason not to try to win...and breed a winning culture and feeling as much as you can...and just be the best team you can be. (Including for us fans).

 

1} Sign a quality, veteran 4th OF, preferably a RH hitter, or switch hitter who is strong from the right side. This provides depth, provides insurance in case one of our young OF struggles at all, and provides better match ups since Kepler and Rosario bat from the left side. It could also provide a mid season flip candidate. Further, the reality is the Twins don't currently have a 4th OF candidate ready. Palka needs more time, as does Walker, and Granite hasn't taken a single AB above AA. Do you want one of them sitting on the bench 4 days out of 7 or playing daily for now?

 

I'm good, and intrigued, with Grossman as a DH/PH 5th OF who doesn't have to play in the field much, but not crazy about him as my 4th OF. Though, to be sure, I'm also OK finding another versatile bench player who could supplant him with versatility in the field and a decent bat.

 

2} Sign a veteran back of the bullpen arm. This could be someone looking for one more season in the sun...kind of like Hawkins a couple years ago...or a bounce back candidate like Storen. Also a potential flip candidate. I get that the Twins have a number of young bullpen arms to consider for 2017, and I don't want to block them. And there are numbers and potential, to be sure. And assuming, for a moment, that no-one is lost to milb FA or rule 5 and they all come back, the list is long, at least from the right side: Chargois, Wimmers, Baxendale, Light, Jones, Burdi and Hildenberger. Chargois, I believe, is ready to roll. But the others have very little to zero ML time, and a coupleasure haven't even pitched above AA yet.

 

Why not have an experienced arm to, potentially, initially, hold down the closer role, and let everyone else find their niche, gain experience and confidence, and roll through the list during the course of the season as need and opportunity arise?

 

Where I am conflicted is SS. I like Escobar quite a bit. Before he got banged up last season, and Nunez became so hot at the plate, I, and I think most of us, we're more than OK with Escobar finally claiming the starting job there. My only concern was him playing too much on an everyday basis, after his fine 2014-15 play, and getting worn out if they didn't rest him from time to time for a full 162 game season.

 

I don't believe we should be down on Escobar for what transpired in 2016. But after not being THE GUY for ALL of the '14 and '15 seasons, and what happened in '16, don't you have to at least give pause? And if Dozier is traded, and Polanco takes over 2B, where is your depth? So the Twins absolutely must do one of the following:

 

A} Find a quality utility infielder

B} The same, but with the ability/potential to challenge Escobar for the job

C} Go ahead and find a high end defensive starter to outright assume the job

 

This is where I find myself in a quandary. Gordon, and possibly Vielma, are the future here, but neither is ready. And there is absolutely nothing wrong with the Twins acquiring a high quality defensive, experienced ML SS to improve team defense, and help the pitching staff for a season or two. Again with putting the best overall team together you can. But perhaps Escobar can still be that guy for a season or two with the addition of a quality utility guy to fill in?

[Mr. Brooks]

Point taken. And a valid point, to be sure. but injuries to anyone, including pitchers, can happen at any time, and you can't build a roster simply because player A could possibly become injured. While I don't WANT to trade Dozier, for a strong return and a place for Polanco, I'm OK with it. I'm also OK with keeping Santiago, as I've stated, while moving Santana. But with Gonsalves and Mejia both probably better off with some AAA time, I also don't have a problem keeping Santana. Yes, as a mentor to a degree. But also as a solid, quality starter. Just because we are in the midst of a youth movement...that also needs to take place on the mound...doesn't mean we should automatically punt on 2017 by dropping just anyone in to the rotation simply because they are younger.

 

By all means shop Santana and trade him if the return makes real sense. Otherwise, I'm fine keeping him initially, providing a bridge until someone else is ready for their shot. But at this point, I don't trade him just because he might get hurt or suddenly lose his stuff over night.

As someone has stated before, the "if you get a good return" part should be implied.

I wouldn't advocate trading him just to dump him. I was responding to someone who said they wouldn't even consider trading him.

[DocBauer]

cool. My bad

[jimmer]

 

Where I am conflicted is SS. I like Escobar quite a bit. Before he got banged up last season, and Nunez became so hot at the plate, I, and I think most of us, we're more than OK with Escobar finally claiming the starting job there. My only concern was him playing too much on an everyday basis, after his fine 2014-15 play, and getting worn out if they didn't rest him from time to time for a full 162 game season.

I don't believe we should be down on Escobar for what transpired in 2016. But after not being THE GUY for ALL of the '14 and '15 seasons, and what happened in '16, don't you have to at least give pause? 

More than pause.  At no time was I ever sold on him.  We need to aim higher at shortstop (and a lot of positions, like going for a 3rd OF instead of a 4th OF since Rosario is a 4th OF talent).