My Offseason plan

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I like the plan with three changes, two of which  others have mentioned.  First, why do so many people want to non-tender Santiago? He is a MLB quality mid-rotation starter.  He wasn't good for us last year but he was good for the Angels, a team that wasn't in a complete free fall and played competent defense. Those guys don't grow on trees.  He is at least trade bait.  He will be picked within a week if non-tendered, probably by the Angels. He's a definite tender.  

 

Also, we already have the 4th OF in Rosario. He's reasonably competent in CF, hits some and can get hot but isn't good enough in any of the phases now to start. It makes more sense to me to pick up an Austin Jackson, John Jay or Rajai Davis type (or in my dreams, Josh Reddick or Colby Rasmus) for now until Palka, Walker or Granite is ready. Or start there if you think one of them is ready now with Rosario as the backup plan. 

 

Finally, I don't understand why there are so many calls to trade Santana this off-season. By all accounts is a good clubhouse guy, he's a quality pitcher (although not a number 1, he's a decent 2 and strong 3) and is far and away the best starter we have. The young starters need someone to learn their craft from and he can fit that bill. Also, he is exactly the kind of guy you can move at mid-season and potentially get a team to overpay. I think trading him now is a very bad idea. Conversely, much as I like Brian Dozier I think trading him makes sense if we can get a decent return on the pitching side for all of the reasons others have mentioned.

 

Other than that, I really like your plan.  Thanks for putting this out for discussion.

 

to answer your comments:

 

1)  Santiago is a known commodity, and I don't think everyone wants to dump him... I do.  He's definitely a "this is what he is guy" which is a guy who is going to post an ERA well north of 4 (and possibly north of 5), not get a ton of Ks, and really has no upside. He's filler. The problem (as I see it) is that we need to get guys like Mejia, May, and Berrios time in the majors. You could argue Mejia isn't ready yet, and perhaps that would be why you keep Santiago around, but thy guy did pretty well in AA/AAA and needs to get a shot. Santiago is going to be an expensive pitcher, and as such, he's going to get a long leash if he stays. I don't see us competing next year, so a guy who is going to be here for one or two years and plug a spot at a below average value makes little sense when you have guys with upside knocking on the door (and quite a few more on the way).

 

2)  Jackson was another guy I looked at. I wouldn't cry over the signing, but he was last good in 2012 and average in 2013.  After that, pretty bad. He's a CF too, and I wouldn't be against that type of move.  While I agree that Rosario is a competent CF, he's not one you want out there every day, and the main reason I'm looking at an OF here is for Buxton insurance. I'm not making the mistake that was made with him this year, or with Hicks on several occasions, and handing Buxton a job with no plan B. I want a plan B that will be on the roster whether Buxton is on it or not.

 

3) The issue with ESan is contract length (2 more years+ and option), an elbow with a ticking time bomb (partially torn UCL that he has rehabbed), PED ticking time bomb (one previous suspension), age (he's at that age where pitchers can fall off), and a real question whether or not the Twins can compete in the next two years. I'm not against keeping him. You're right. He was a valuable player, and he's the type of player that every team would want. Even teams like the Mets, who have good young pitching, would be quite happy having a guy like Santana in the rotation. There's value there, in spite of the risks, and right now he is about as valuable as he could be. I don't see that value rising six months from now, and I don't see the Twins in their current state taking advantage of it. If they keep him, what is more likely to happen is that he blocks a younger pitcher in 2017.  As well, there's a real chance that something happens in 2017/2018 that makes his contract untradeable. I'm not saying trade him for nothing, but I would throw his name out there, as getting a Wilson Ramos type prospect (that's Ramos as a prospect, not as what he is now) and change, solves a major headache for the Twins and gives them more options down the road. This team isn't going to compete next year, and if the Twins don't make it a point to get more pitching, they won't be competing in 2019 either.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Side note, I didn't put this in my plan, but without question I'd probably add a AAAA arm or two to Rochester. There's one real depth piece in Duffey at the beginning of the season and another possible one in Wheeler. I'd go target some former prospects that never quite got over the hump, letting them know they are one injury away from a 40 man add and a shot.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

More than pause.  At no time was I ever sold on him.  We need to aim higher at shortstop (and a lot of positions, like going for a 3rd OF instead of a 4th OF since Rosario is a 4th OF talent).

 

I can understand the hesitation with Escobar, but he isn't the major problem on this team, and even this year, he was showing flashes of his 2015 self that injury kind of derailed.  I would give him another chance as this is the kind of guy who can walk off and suddenly be good for someone else.  Keep in mind, he came up to the bigs at a very young age.  Chicago gave up on him too quickly, I'd add.  Now, you're point is valid, his production this year didn't scream anything special. The flip side is that in his down year, he was not in the category of dead weight.  I would give him another year.  It cannot hurt.  You have Gordon who will be in AA next season.  Gordon started out incredibly well in a pitcher's league in A+ and definitely hit a wall as the season progressed. I think that has more to do with getting used to full season ball than anything (same thing happened last year I'd add too)... Give him some time.  I think Vielma is pretty much already maxed out at what he can be (good glove, no hit SS) and in that role, I'm fine with him as a defensive sub.  I'm not against picking up an ML ready SS if one comes via trade, but I think pitching and catching are bigger needs right now in the org. 

 

You may be right on Escobar, but I don't think it would be prudent to dump him... not yet at least.  Escobar to be honest kind of reminds me of Dozier in how his major league development worked...  Flashes that said "this guy can be special" and then down times that said "why do we still have him."  Patience was the right answer with BD.  Now if you wanted to argue having a backup plan in Rochester, that I'd be all over... That's another spot where having an AAAA guy on the Redwings makes a ton of sense.