So let's say the Twins are trading Brian Dozier

[T_J]

I just don't think Dozier is going to bring back a huge haul like most people think- especially in the off season. Not alone at least. The Dodgers could sign a FA Second baseman and not lose any prospects. Yes, Dozier might be better than anyone they sign, but really how much better? They also have some in-house talent that is near MLB ready. 

 

Right now, there are so many great 2nd basemen and Dozier might be about the 10th best right now. No doubt, he is having an amazing season, but any team trading for him is going to look at his career too and it has had plenty of ups and downs. I think Dozier will be a Minnesota Twin to start the year. Maybe some injuries will happen that will make a team panic a little and be a little more willing to part with better packages. 

[bluechipper]

 

Not sure what to say there.  Glasnow has had more major league success than Meyer ever had, and he's 23. 

 

I'd trade Dozier to the pirates if they were willing to offer up Glasnow as the center piece, and I wouldn't think twice about it. 

Both are really tall pitchers who have trouble repeating their mechanics, leading to high walk totals. Glasnow has a higher minor league walk rate than Meyer.

 

And Glasnow has 15 MLB innings, so that means little more than nothing.

[bluechipper]

 

Wouldn't most pitching prospects be high risk/high reward? If not these guys, what type of pitcher should be targeted?

Maybe that's why you don't trade a cheap 40 HR second basemen for one of these high risk/reward guys. Maybe target someone who hasn't had control problems in the minors.

 

 

[beckmt]

You are looking for improvement.  That involves some risk.  I look at two factors

1. Will Dozier likely be part of the next good Twins team - answer no

2. Can he bring some pitchers who might well be part of the next Twins good team - Almost certainly yes.

 

FInd the right pitchers and pull the trigger.  I have just suggested the Dodgers and they need a 2nd baseman and have plenty of young pitching to offer.  Utley is not the answer and they probably will be willing to deal.

Other factor is that Dozier is cheap as players with his skillset go, Dodger do not have payroll issues, but money saved could be used elsewhere. They also have (Kershaw, Madea. Kazmir, McCarthey, Ryu and several other pitchers under contract for next year.  That is the makings of a deal.

[AlwaysinModeration]

If the Twins new GM or POBO can manage to trade two years of Brian Dozier for six years of Jose DeLeon, Austin Barnes, and a lottery pick or two (maybe Grant Holmes?), I would very much be in favor of this trade and hope that s/he does it. Filling a void(s) in the rotation and one behind the plate, while allowing for an out of options youngster to move into 2B full time. This could be a franchise-altering move that wouldn't have even been remotely feasible at the end of July.

[Pius Jefferson]

This seems like a different Dodgers organization. The young talent is more valued, contracts aren't wastefully given out.  Dozier is under a team friendly deal so that helps, but that doesn't mean the Dodgers would give up a lot  to get Dozier.

 

 

[gocgo]

I actually think there is a good possibility of moving Dozier to 3B by some team.  He is at an age where the defensive range begins to decline and he has the pop.  I don't like the idea of trading for prospects unless they are AAA and MLB ready.

[HitInAPinch]

 

So the Twins are trading Brian Dozier. Everyone knows it. What do you see as a deal that could happen?

 

 

Really?  I'd say it's much closer to the Twins NOT trading Dozier. 

I'd say it's more likely that the Dodgers' will laugh at the idea of them trading 3 top 100 MLB prospects, plus a PTBN for Dozier. 

 

I'd say that what Vanimal posted  [Kenta Maeda, Hyun-Jin Ryu, or Scott Kazmir from the Dodgers] is more realistic.  i.e.  trading veterans, not their future.

[Winston Smith]

 

I actually think there is a good possibility of moving Dozier to 3B by some team.  He is at an age where the defensive range begins to decline and he has the pop.  I don't like the idea of trading for prospects unless they are AAA and MLB ready.

Dozier doesn't have the arm for 3B.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It fascinates me people think Dozier isn't worth much in trade.

 

Dozier has three full seasons since his breakout in May of 2013. Combined, those three seasons have been worth ~14.5 fWAR.

 

That's just shy of 5 fWAR per season.

 

Dozier is owed $15m for two seasons of control. Based on his fWAR numbers, the receiving team can expect roughly $3-4m/fWAR over two years.

 

If Dozier isn't worth much, who is?

 

Dozier is a perfect trade candidate for several reasons. He's under team control for two seasons, his contract is ridiculously underpriced, and he's just leaving his prime years and shouldn't expect a huge drop in performance.

 

Brian is the perfect candidate for a team that needs "one last piece" to push them over the top. He gives that team a two year window without blowing the budget. Sure, it's great to get a 5+ year player but at what cost? Never mind that you're committing to someone who might be terrible in years three, four, and five. Dozier is a great balance of risk and reward for a team looking to blow open their contention window for two seasons.

 

The Royals paid a steep price for Shields (and Davis, but let's focus on Shields for a moment). Kansas City received two years of Shields and paid him $22.5m, $7.5m more than will be owed Dozier. While fWAR certainly doesn't translate at a perfect 1:1 ratio for pitchers/hitters, Dozier has been worth more over the past three seasons than Shields was in his previous three seasons with the Rays. Oh, and Dozier is a year younger than Shields was at the time of the trade.

 

Yet Shields was a "holy crap, win now" move while Dozier is "eh, whatever, I suppose he's worth something".

[belker]

 

I'd call each of these teams with this primary target and work from there:

 

Cards: Alex Reyes

Pirates: Tyler Glasnow

Mets: Ahmed Rosario

 

Among others of course, but the key is aim high with the centerpiece.

Cardinal fan here....I can't see them trading Reyes.  Their MO is to mix in young talent with their experienced players to keep payroll in the mid-tier.  And he is probably their only prospect that has eye-popping talent.  He needs work on his command, definitely.  But there were several quotes from management and other players admiring his composure recently.  

They could fit Dozier into their infield, but their offense has been homer-heavy this year.  What they really need is a high-OBP player to lead off.  

[gocgo]

 

Dozier doesn't have the arm for 3B.

Yeah, that's kinda what I was wondering.  I know he was groomed as a SS, but wasn't sure of his arm.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Royals paid a steep price for Shields (and Davis, but let's focus on Shields for a moment). Kansas City received two years of Shields and paid him $22.5m, $7.5m more than will be owed Dozier. While fWAR certainly doesn't translate at a perfect 1:1 ratio for pitchers/hitters, Dozier has been worth more over the past three seasons than Shields was in his previous three seasons with the Rays. Oh, and Dozier is a year younger than Shields was at the time of the trade.

 

Yet Shields was a "holy crap, win now" move while Dozier is "eh, whatever, I suppose he's worth something".

It's supply and demand.  Every team needs another SP, basically all the time.  Not every team needs a 2B.

 

And a lot of people ripped the Shields trade from the Royals perspective -- it was a bit of an unusual/unexpected trade.  The opportunity to get an elite prospect could arise again for a guy like Dozier, but it can't really be used as a baseline expectation of value.  (And also note the elite prospect in the Shields deal was a corner bat, very different than a potential ace elite prospect.)

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's supply and demand.  Every team needs another SP, basically all the time.  Not every team needs a 2B.

 

And a lot of people ripped the Shields trade from the Royals perspective -- it was a bit of an unusual/unexpected trade.  The opportunity to get an elite prospect could arise again for a guy like Dozier, but it can't really be used as a baseline expectation of value.  (And also note the elite prospect in the Shields deal was a corner bat, very different than a potential ace elite prospect.)

Sure, the market is more limited for Dozier but I was only trying to point out that in pure value, Dozier is borderline elite.

 

Do I expect him to return a blockbuster on the lines of Shields? No, but to suggest he's worth veterans and maybe a few middling prospects is insanity.

 

And while Myers was a corner bat, he was also the fourth ranked prospect in all of baseball at the time. I haven't seen anyone predict a top 15 prospect in return for Dozier, much less one of the five best guys in the minors. Most targets seem to hover in the 25-50 range, much lower than Myers.

 

Anyway, my point is that five win players don't grow on trees.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Sure, the market is more limited for Dozier but I was only trying to point out that in pure value, Dozier is borderline elite.

 

Do I expect him to return a blockbuster on the lines of Shields? No, but to suggest he's worth veterans and maybe a few middling prospects is insanity.

 

And while Myers was a corner bat, he was also the fourth ranked prospect in all of baseball at the time. I haven't seen anyone predict a top 15 prospect in return for Dozier, much less one of the five best guys in the minors. Most targets seem to hover in the 25-50 range, much lower than Myers.

 

Anyway, my point is that five win players don't grow on trees.

Preseason, Urias was #4, Reyes #7, Glasnow #14.  All have arguably moved up since then.  Those are 3 names which have been repeated here.  I'm definitely not getting a "people are valuing Dozier too low" vibe in this thread!  (Except perhaps when they explicitly talk about the current 2B market, not the "absolute value" of a 5 WAR player.)

[Cory Engelhardt]

So, maybe try for a Chris Archer instead?

[sthpstm]

 

Preseason, Urias was #4, Reyes #7, Glasnow #14.  All have arguably moved up since then.  Those are 3 names which have been repeated here.  I'm definitely not getting a "people are valuing Dozier too low" vibe in this thread!  (Except perhaps when they explicitly talk about the current 2B market, not the "absolute value" of a 5 WAR player.)

I am all for trading Dozier, but I agree that one of those three seems unlikely.

I continue to believe that a trade for Dozier may be more likely to get back higher valued position players, which would allow us trade a more valuable piece (Sano, Kepler, Buxton) that could fetch the pitching we need.

 

[gunnarthor]

It's probably worth remembering that the Shields trade worked out well for KC but not so great for Tampa. 

[jimmer]

Tampa got Odorizzi, who has been good, and one year of very good Myers.  Then they were able to trade Myers for some good prospects (Ott and Bauers) and some players who have been decent.  There have been worse results.

[Kwak]

 

Tampa got Odorizzi, who has been good, and one year of very good Myers.  Then they were able to trade Myers for some good prospects (Ott and Bauers) and some players who have been decent.  There have been worse results.

...and Tampa saved beaucoup salary dollars.

[jimmer]

 

...and Tampa saved beaucoup salary dollars.

exactly.

[laloesch]

I don't see the Twins trading Dozier period, but i agree that at this point it's likely the right thing to do given the Twins shortage of QUALITY starting pitching in the ranks.  My only question is availability.  Right now there appears to be a noticeable shortage of quality starting pitching in both leagues.  I think they are going to have to dig deep to get anything back via a trade and by deep i mean trading for prospects in AA / AAA.  

 

I don't agree with the notion that some posters have in keeping Santana.  He will not make this team a contender in the remaining years of his deal in his mid 30's.  I would have taken the Jays deal and dumped him for prospects and salary relief.  That would have left us with only Mauer and Hughes colossal contracts.  For once this team needs to sell high and get something back in return.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's probably worth remembering that the Shields trade worked out well for KC but not so great for Tampa. 

Only because they traded Myers while he was amidst an injury streak.

 

And Odorizzi has worked out very well for them.

 

Since the trade, Odorizzi has been worth close to 8 rWAR and Myers has been worth a little over 5 rWAR, despite the injuries. Myers hasn't been a star but he's been a solid regular when he isn't injured (worth a bit more than 3 rWAR in 2016, his first full non-injury season).

 

Combined, the two have been paid roughly $3.5m during that time.