Bates: Trade Dozier? History suggests really hard to get good return.

[nicksaviking]

He's only got two more years left, and I'm not sure how useful that would be for a team that looks this dysfunctional. It would seem to me you have to either trade him or extend him.

 

But do you really want to extend a 2B beyond his age 32 season? Especially a 2B who's defense is already declining and doesn't look to have any other position to move to?

[Seth Stohs]

 

Fair enough. Is there a young player, such as Polanco that Doomtints mentioned before, that could take over as the clubhouse leader? 

 

They shouldn't... That'll come with time. Polanco's not real vocal either. I'd think maybe Escobar would be a good one. Mauer is, even if people like the narrative that he isn't. 

[Major League Ready]

 

A player from your system finally puts all the development together and becomes even more than you had ever thought possible.... and the "real fans" all say reward the fans and player by getting rid of them. It seems the real fans want perpetual hope and dreams prospects to write about instead of MLB standouts. Reward success by kicking them out the door. Not me. Any return for Dozier won't even dent the pitching problem. It would be like a fly ramming an army tank. Good thing folks don't trade their family assets for new prospects and strangers just when they have put all the rearing and personal growth together and are at peak performance.

OK.  Let's pretend those players don't leave for free agency and the team losses the opportunity to acquire assets that would improve the team for years to come.  For example, when the Tigers opted to let David Price go and got two SPs that are a big part of them being in contention and will be an important part of the team for at least 6 years each. They were both part of the rotation less than a year after their acquisition.

 

I am assuming you don't think doing nothing is the answer so how do you propose to fix our pitching or lack there of?    

[Platoon]

It would be incredibly shocking to see Dozier traded.  I think it's more likely he's extended than traded.

That makes me sad! In order of preference:

1. Trade for a MLB caliber SP.

2. Keep him.

14. Extend him.

 

Let's give him a 4 year buyout/extension, so we have a 34 year old 2nd baseman who is coming off of a career 8 weeks. If that's the new GM, then we could have just as well kept TR.

[Otto von Ballpark]

He is cherry picking. Forgot to mention that Zobrist was also traded for Sean Manea plus a guy. And Dozier has more value than Zobrist had then. I'd take Manea plus another pitching prospect at that level for Dozier in a heartbeat.

That was a July trade, though. It was known that there was a pennant race and postseason for Zobrist to have an effect on. Not so for an off season trade.

[Platoon]

A player from your system finally puts all the development together and becomes even more than you had ever thought possible.... and the "real fans" all say reward the fans and player by getting rid of them. It seems the real fans want perpetual hope and dreams prospects to write about instead of MLB standouts. Reward success by kicking them out the door. Not me. Any return for Dozier won't even dent the pitching problem. It would be like a fly ramming an army tank. Good thing folks don't trade their family assets for new prospects and strangers just when they have put all the rearing and personal growth together and are at peak performance.

Many who left here in the past were monetary decisions, as in CHEAP decisions. This isn't. This is a strategic decision, hopefully to bring much needed SP. The FA market is blah, the Twins regardless of who the new GM is are not dipping into the top tier FA market, and our MiLB guys are not really studs. So where is some SP going to come from. Someone has to go. Without an influx of SP, and even with some improvement of the youthful hitters, the best I can see is 15 games out of the WC, instead of 25. SP in baseball is like a QB in football. You either got them or you don't compete. Pitchers and QB's win games. Second baseman and WR contribute, but do not have anywhere near the impact!

[Reider]

 

That makes me sad! In order of preference:
1. Trade for a MLB caliber SP.
2. Keep him.
14. Extend him.

Let's give him a 4 year buyout/extension, so we have a 34 year old 2nd baseman who is coming off of a career 8 weeks. If that's the new GM, then we could have just as well kept TR.

 

What do you mean coming off a career 8 weeks? If he had a career 8 weeks this year, then he's had a career 8 weeks for the last 4 years as well. His home run totals have increased every single year since he made it to the MLB. It's not like he's hit 6 HRs per year over the last 4 years and all of a sudden this year he has hit 40. When a player is on an upward trend for 4+ years, it's not a fluke and it really shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Not to mention he was an all-star last year and even hit a home run in the all star game.

 

If he hits 65HR's next year, should we have selective amnesia, forget about this season (and the last 5 years), and insult him by minimizing his accomplishments to having a "career 8 weeks, woop dee doo?" That's player bashing and shouldn't be allowed on this message board.

 

Secondly, what SP should we trade him for? Make a list of "MLB caliber pitchers" you want in return for him and we'll see if those teams will part with those pitchers. Just because we want X pitcher in return for him, doesn't mean we'll get that pitcher in return. We as fans don't know what all goes on behind the scenes. What if our new POBO and GM shop Dozier around, but no team is willing to part with the pitcher we want in return? Just because we don't know that information and no trade happens, are you going to blindly bash the new POBO and GM on here next season?

[Major League Ready]

 

 

He's only got two more years left, and I'm not sure how useful that would be for a team that looks this dysfunctional. It would seem to me you have to either trade him or extend him.

 

But do you really want to extend a 2B beyond his age 32 season? Especially a 2B who's defense is already declining and doesn't look to have any other position to move to?

This is really it in a nutshell.  How important is it to be a little better the next couple years?  Obviously, that depends on the trade package.  Why give up Dozier if the package coming back is not going to solve the problem?  Of course, nobody here is likely to disagree with this position but you also think you have to set the bar at a "haul" and you probably are not going to get top of the rotation guys already in the majors.  The teams who will trade for Dozier are in a window where they are contending.  They are not trading top of the rotation guys.

[Monkeypaws]

Keep him and just draft and develop better dammit - 5-6 years of premium picks oughta produce something.

[Reider]

 

SP in baseball is like a QB in football. You either got them or you don't compete. Pitchers and QB's win games. Second baseman and WR contribute, but do not have anywhere near the impact!

 

Oh I see, yet you expect another team to trade one of their pitchers for our second baseman? And if that trade doesn't happen, then you're going to bash the new GM (by comparing him to the old one), who hasn't even been hired yet? Understood. (For anyone confused about the GM question, please see post #34).

 

Lets summarize your logic in this thread for the confused:

 

- Pitchers' impact on winning is greater than 2nd baseman, who's impact is not "anywhere near" that of a pitcher

- Dozier is coming off of a career 8 weeks

- The new GM better trade Dozier for a pitcher or "then we could have just as well kept TR."

[Platoon]

Ah, NO! I said if we EXTEND him, then we could have kept TR. I also said that trading him for SP was first choice, keeping him, if no SP was second, and extending him was 14th. But that was an hour ago, I now have changed extending him to #27! That said, I liked your post!

[stringer bell]

I don't think it's fair to say "career eight weeks". First of all, since June 1, Dozier has been an elite hitter, that's a lot more than eight weeks. Dismissing his otherworldly stretch would indicate that he'd never approach elite status again when he's performed at that level for many stretches. Yes, Dozier had several consecutive bad months, but Dozier has put together four good years and the trajectory has been up.

[Reider]

 

Ah, NO! I said if we EXTEND him, then we could have kept TR. I also said that trading him for SP was first choice, keeping him, if no SP was second, and extending him was 14th. But that was an hour ago, I now have changed extending him to #27! That said, I liked your post!

 

I like that you liked my post, so I liked your post because you liked my post!

 

The Twins could have kept TR no matter what happens with Dozier or any other player for that matter. I'm not sure holding on to one player or not should hold that much weight on our GM! I"m sure a lot of fans wanted TR gone regardless of the logo on Doziers uniform. Truth be told, I'm a firm believer that a GM knows how to build a championship team or they don't. The Twins under TR never really came close enough. Especially not in his second term.

 

I get a kick out of your logic and comments. They are all over the place on this issue, often contradictory and / or confusing, so I think it's best we just wait and see what happens with Dozier once the new POBO and GM are in place and hopefully regardless of what happens, the new hires know what they are doing and are able to turn the Twins into a legitimate contender.

[Rosterman]

It's all about value.

 

The first decision...would you extend his contract a year or two tomorrow?

 

The second question. If you don't extend, will you be willing to sign him back when he reaches free agency.

 

And remember, after two more seasons, we could always keep him for a third by offering him untold millions. Then he has to decide if he wants a qualifying offer or free agency.

 

If you don't see yourself throwing any more money his way, then start entertaining offers. Look at the prices other teams have paid for their higher level (and available) draft picks. Look at players that you can still control that have an upside. Who ahs an obvious weakness at second base and will buy into the current look at Dozier as a power demon.

.

And then trade accordingly.

 

Age is a factor even more than cost. How does he fit into a 2019 Minnesota Twins team, looking at what we have today and dreaming about what we will have tomorrow.

 

But answer the first two questions first. Right now, you don't have to trade Dozier, although you can trade him and a team will be able to control him for two seasons and they have to also ask the top two questions in their price of an offer.

[old nurse]

Over the last 3 seasons Dozier has put up about 14 WAR.   Over the same period of time Quintana, Cueto or Bumgarner have put up about the same WAR.  Somehow I do not  think  anyone is going to trade  equal value.   I do not think anyone will give up a a AA pitcher with  number one potential n the off season for Dozier because even though that level of player isn't easy to come by, it is still harder to find a front line starter.

[Platoon]

I like that you liked my post, so I liked your post because you liked my post!

 

The Twins could have kept TR no matter what happens with Dozier or any other player for that matter. I'm not sure holding on to one player or not should hold that much weight on our GM! I"m sure a lot of fans wanted TR gone regardless of the logo on Doziers uniform. Truth be told, I'm a firm believer that a GM knows how to build a championship team or they don't. The Twins under TR never really came close enough. Especially not in his second term.

 

I get a kick out of your logic and comments. They are all over the place on this issue, often contradictory and / or confusing, so I think it's best we just wait and see what happens with Dozier once the new POBO and GM are in place and hopefully regardless of what happens, the new hires know what they are doing and are able to turn the Twins into a legitimate contender.

I liked your post because it was civil and punctuated properly! I also liked the use of and/or. And I maybe/must have been contradictory/confusing, because:

 

1. Under no circumstances do/did I want TR back.

2. I have been clear, crystal, forever. IF you can trade BD for a solid SP, i.e. a #3, then pull the pin. This is based on our very clear, crystal, need for SP. In another place, other than TwinsWorld, I would probably not do that, but the need for pitching trumps all. And there are limited resources here to acquire said arms.

3. Extending Dozier past his 32 year, to me, seems a poor idea. He is a heavy pull FB oriented HR hitter without the true all fields power of the Cabreras and Sanos of the world. Your going to be buying the end of the line. IMHO. Plus, you trade from excess, and the Twins only excessive is hitting.

4. Such an extension, would have been a TR imperative. Ergo, if the new guy jumps right in and does it, I euphemistically said, "we could just have kept TR".

5. I have been waiting for new leadership for this team, probably longer than most. I was very happy to see TR retire the first time, and would have never brought him back.

6. No the next GM should not be solely judged by his handling of Dozier, it should be judged by the totality of his work over a few years (kind of like my posts are). . But whoever he is, has a bigger mess on his hands than some here like to admit. Somehow the new GM is going to have to convert some of this offense, to pitching and defense. It's gonna be a fun winter.

7. Any mistakes in the previous six points, are solely the function of auto correct!

[Champuckett]

 

I find this immensely frustrating. 

 

OBVIOUSLY you look to trade a guy and see what you get. If you don't get what you feel is good value, you don't trade the guy. It's that simple.

 

The Twins would be stupid not to explore a Dozier trade this offseason. If they don't get good value, they should not do it. End of story.

 

This 1000x.  This is a complicated topic right now and for some it's as black and white as day and night.  To others it may look like a knee jerk reaction in response to the terrible Twins front office and lack of doing pretty much anything for the past 4-5 seasons.  

 

I feel even posting something that is not in line with the basic premise "we need to trade Dozier immediately" will automatically get me and others a ton of flack almost instantly.  Going against the grain.  People are just salivating at the idea of rapidly trading the guy, not considering what his actual value is, not considering the reality of baseball trades and what the current market is.

 

Please understand that we should definitely be shopping him in the offseason, seeing what offers are there, seeing what the new director of baseball and the new GM can come up with.  It will be a great test for them if they can conjure up a great deal for the franchise.  There may be some amazing gems of offers waiting out there by desperate teams.  At the same time, there may not be in 2017.  We don't know yet.

 

Also understand that many big time trades often do not work out, sometimes for both parties.  The idea that we will automatically acquire all of the pitching needs we are searching for and are guaranteed to come out of the trade in the net positive is absurd and the general feeling to take away from these boards on the subject is that this is in fact the case.

 

Trading for the sake of change, for the sake of just making a trade happen, for the sake of doing something as kind of a "screw you" to Terry Ryan to do something in the offseason when he did basically nothing over the last 5 years, is not a good reason to justify forcing a trade.

 

I think people are overestimating Dozier's trade value.  2B is not currently a premium position.  There are plenty of great hitting 2B all over the MLB as we speak.  Teams are not dumb and/or fooled by his one time 40+ HR year.  They know he is inconsistent, they know he only averages around 25 HR and they know he does not hit for average, this year being the first time he is respectable in that category. 

 

Going into 2017, we will not get a 4-5 person trade by the likes of Viola, Knoblauch, or Santana.  He hasn't won any major awards and he didn't win any World Series.  He isn't worth as much to non-Twins clubs as we hope he would be, not yet.  If he were to maintain his elite status into next year, then we can start talking about the potential for huge blockbuster trades, but as it stands right now, Dozier is probably only worth something slightly better than the Denard Span trade and we know how that turned out.  If that's worth it to you to try something like that, then more power to you.

 

We do need to strongly address our pitching needs, but we also need to relax a bit on how we are treating our commodities.  There were many shouting to trade Dozier last year, I'm sure you can all find the thread if you search for it.  How would that look now if he had the season he had, right after we traded him?  "At least we tried!"  I am guessing would be the response forgetting that trying is not an excuse for enacting hastily executed poor decision making.  

 

Ease up just a bit, we will get what we need from Dozier in due time.

[beckmt]

Dodgers have Chase Utley as their 2nd baseman and 2 young starting pitchers in Urias and De Leon.  That looks to me like the bases of a trade.  Dodgers also have about 5 more starting pitchers under contract(Kershaw, Anderson, Madea, McCartney, Kazmir).  They also are in win now mode. 

You may not make a deal here, but looks like it would be a place to start.

If you do not get what you want, you can pass.  But Urias in particlular would look good in a Twins uniform.

Dodgers also do not care about money, so you would not have to worry about salary back.

[twinssporto]

 

It would be incredibly shocking to see Dozier traded.  I think it's more likely he's extended than traded.

I agree.  Probably unlikely he gets traded.  

 

The part about the extension though...Doubtful.  Terry Ryan has been let go.  Whew!