Article about Twins failure to develop players

[Seth Stohs]

I'd also like to see it compared with other organizations. I'm not saying it's wrong, or right, but there's no context to it. If a couple of 22 year olds struggle in their first or second year in the big leagues, I don't know that that tells us anything. They used Torii Hunter as an example of a star that was developed by the Twins, and part of that development was going up and down a few times early in his career. It happens. 

 

1.) Buxton and Berrios are not guys to give up on. 

2.) Sano hasn't been good, but he's still put up some quality numbers.

3.) Did the Twins help develop Brian Dozier? I suppose that doesn't support the theory though...

4.) Stewart is mentioned, and yet he's a 21-year-old with a half-season of AA time. And, do they get any credit for taking Gonsalves in the 4th round?

5.) Kepler and Polanco seem to be alright. 

 

If I'm buying stock, there's no question I'd be buying on the Twins prospects and young players.

[Doomtints]

 

I'd also like to see it compared with other organizations. I'm not saying it's wrong, or right, but there's no context to it. If a couple of 22 year olds struggle in their first or second year in the big leagues, I don't know that that tells us anything. They used Torii Hunter as an example of a star that was developed by the Twins, and part of that development was going up and down a few times early in his career. It happens. 

 

1.) Buxton and Berrios are not guys to give up on. 

2.) Sano hasn't been good, but he's still put up some quality numbers.

3.) Did the Twins help develop Brian Dozier? I suppose that doesn't support the theory though...

4.) Stewart is mentioned, and yet he's a 21-year-old with a half-season of AA time. And, do they get any credit for taking Gonsalves in the 4th round?

5.) Kepler and Polanco seem to be alright. 

 

If I'm buying stock, there's no question I'd be buying on the Twins prospects and young players.

 

 

Sure.  Still, this is a good narrative for the future administration.  It's good for them to be coming in thinking the development system needs an overhaul.  Let them discover for themselves that it's not quite as bad as everyone thinks.

[Obsvr]

The only thing really holding this team back is their unbelievably poor pitching.  

 

The first two months of the season were an aberration...since then they have had one of the top offenses in the league.  This team scores more than enough runs to win at a high level.  

 

Re: Buxton...He started slow at every level, figured it out and started raking.  He's followed that same arc in the majors and looks like things are starting to slow down for him now.  He is still incredibly raw...in 2-3 years he will be the stud everybody wants him to be.  

 

IMO they have an excellent young core of players and some intriguing young arms.  The offense in its current state has power and speed.  A few deft moves by the new FO to remake the pitching staff and the next few years could be very fun to watch.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jimmer]

 

The only thing really holding this team back is their unbelievably poor pitching.  

 

and the defense, which contributes to the poor pitching.  And lack of fundamentals...

[Doomtints]

 

The only thing really holding this team back is their unbelievably poor pitching.  

 

The first two months of the season were an aberration...since then they have had one of the top offenses in the league.  This team scores more than enough runs to win at a high level.  

 

Re: Buxton...He started slow at every level, figured it out and started raking.  He's followed that same arc in the majors and looks like things are starting to slow down for him now.  He is still incredibly raw...in 2-3 years he will be the stud everybody wants him to be.  

 

IMO they have an excellent young core of players and some intriguing young arms.  The offense in its current state has power and speed.  A few deft moves by the new FO to remake the pitching staff and the next few years could be very fun to watch.

 

The Twins lost confidence in Milone, a soft-tossing lefty.  So they brought up Albers, who is another soft tossing lefty.  This team simply makes odd decisions.  But it's not just pitching -- they also play position players out of position (for guys who clearly can't handle it), bounce players between the majors and minors (before they are finished walking of the field at the end of the game), and call up position players who have no business being on the roster.  

 

They're lost.  Plain and simple.  Somehow the people running this team forgot what baseball is.  

[Mike Sixel]

How much patience....when I asked two years ago, I was told THIS was the year....when I asked last year, I was told THIS was the year.

 

How many bad years are reasonable, before people stop telling irrational fans they should be patient?

 

btw, all fans are irrational. It's literally the etymology of fan.....

[dbminn]

The Twins will start 2017 with an outfield that averages 23 years old. With Sano (23) and Polanco (22), the Twins have an incredibly young lineup. All have had at least some positive MLB experience. They need to be more consistent, which is a problem that will be solved with time.

 

It's hard to say these five youngsters haven't quickly developed. There are only 39 MLB players 23 or younger with at least 100 PA this year and the Twins have four of them. All will be in the lineup next year with some games under their belts. That is not failure.

 

Pitching? Yeah, been bad for years. Let's hope the new Pres/GM can improve development of the good young prospects already in the pipeline.

[jimmer]

 

How much patience....when I asked two years ago, I was told THIS was the year....when I asked last year, I was told THIS was the year.

 

How many bad years are reasonable, before people stop telling irrational fans they should be patient?

 

btw, all fans are irrational. It's literally the etymology of fan.....

I imagine a lot of the people that were preaching patience in the last 4, 5 years will stop doing that now.

[Doomtints]

 

I imagine a lot of the people that were preaching patience in the last 4, 5 years will stop doing that now.

 

 

This year was refreshing.  It was like being able to exhale for the first time in six years.  The people who would utterly lose it and start attacking straw men when someone suggested the Twins (or really, Terry Ryan) made a mistake very quickly this year realized that, yes, the Twins have been making mistakes.  

 

There is something to be said for being able to freely express an opinion without people going ballistic and being unreasonable.  

[Jham]

True. But the Royals built a winner without a superstar type. As good as Gordon, Hosmer, and Moustakas are, none are Bryant.

Took the Royals 1/4 of a decade for that strategy to work. And it still appears they got a little lucky.

[Jham]

You mean the polished college hitter put up better milb numbers than the 16 year old?

 

Sano's debut, at age 22 was better than Bryant's debut at age 23.

How about we see what Sano can do in his age 24 season before we decide that he can't put up Bryant numbers.

Yeah I'd expect the kid who'd been playing professionally since 16 to be better than the college kid. Are you saying that professional baseball is easier than college? What percentage chance do you believe Sano has of reaching or surpassing Bryant's current level of production?

[Obsvr]

 

The Twins lost confidence in Milone, a soft-tossing lefty.  So they brought up Albers, who is another soft tossing lefty.  This team simply makes odd decisions.  But it's not just pitching -- they also play position players out of position (for guys who clearly can't handle it), bounce players between the majors and minors (before they are finished walking of the field at the end of the game), and call up position players who have no business being on the roster.  

 

They're lost.  Plain and simple.  Somehow the people running this team forgot what baseball is.  

 

I don't think anybody is arguing that the decision and/or the process has been good or even competent.  I'm speaking strictly about the current assets this organization has under control.  

 

Buxton and Sano are both going to be the players we hoped and wanted them to be.  Just maybe not quite as fast as we would have liked.  Kepler is a nice development and hopefully doesn't have much regression next year.  Polanco looks like he can hit at this level and Berrios has too good of stuff to not figure it out eventually.

 

Sano, Buxton, Kepler and Berrios are a great young core to build around.   I'd be looking to trade Dozier and Rosario this offseason for pitching.  A package of those two should return a nice haul.

 

 

[jimmer]

 

Yeah I'd expect the kid who'd been playing professionally since 16 to be better than the college kid. Are you saying that professional baseball is easier than college? What percentage chance do you believe Sano has of reaching or surpassing Bryant's current level of production?

Um, zero?

[wsnydes]

 

How much patience....when I asked two years ago, I was told THIS was the year....when I asked last year, I was told THIS was the year.

 

How many bad years are reasonable, before people stop telling irrational fans they should be patient?

 

btw, all fans are irrational. It's literally the etymology of fan.....

I agree with this completely.  I'm out of patience, but I see overreacting to this season as bad as underreacting to last season.  I really don't want this team to turn into the next Pittsburgh where they're completely irrelevant for two decades.  At some point, now IMHO, you have to let things work naturally a little bit.

[Doomtints]

 

I don't think anybody is arguing that the decision and/or the process has been good or even competent.  I'm speaking strictly about the current assets this organization has under control.  

 

Buxton and Sano are both going to be the players we hoped and wanted them to be.  Just maybe not quite as fast as we would have liked.  Kepler is a nice development and hopefully doesn't have much regression next year.  Polanco looks like he can hit at this level and Berrios has too good of stuff to not figure it out eventually.

 

Sano, Buxton, Kepler and Berrios are a great young core to build around.   I'd be looking to trade Dozier and Rosario this offseason for pitching.  A package of those two should return a nice haul.

 

Even your good examples have ugly facets.  Kepler was held in the minors the maximum amount of time possible in spite of him performing well enough to receive promotions along the way that he didn't get.  Polanco has shown brilliance in the majors but has been sent down time after time so that worse players can play.

 

As for Berrios and Buxton being a part of a core -- first they need to learn how to play.  And that's the gist of this conversation.  Players are coming up who are not ready while other prospects sit in the minors too long.  In the meantime we have Beresford and Albers who will never amount to anything for this team.  Every possible mistake, the Twins have made it and are still making it.  

[wsnydes]

 

Took the Royals 1/4 of a decade for that strategy to work. And it still appears they got a little lucky.

I agree completely.  But of the names you named and the names I named, which ones have back to back World Series appearances and a ring?

 

Lady luck is always on the side of winners, whether it be remaining healthy with key players or getting somebody playing out their minds, or getting the calls, or simply having the schedule end up playing in their favor.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I imagine a lot of the people that were preaching patience in the last 4, 5 years will stop doing that now.

In most reasonable cases, it stopped around the time the Twins opened the season 20-45ish.

[bird]

I don't want to disappoint jimmer.   The lesson I think the organization never learned under Ryan is how dicey and slow the process is when you rely almost exclusively on building from within, and how devastating poor decisions in trades and FA transactions can be. You know, decisions like Nolasco and Capps that can set you back a full year in a rebuild.

 

At the time BA pronounced the Twins to have "the best" system in 2013, they also put together a ranking of teams with the best "near-term value" , meaning close to MLB-ready talent of consequence. This ranking may have been prior to the injuries to Sano and Buxton, I don't recall. In any case the Twins ranked #7. Tied for #5 were the Royals, the Cards were #8. When I glance at the Royal's Top 10 from 2013, I think I see 3 guys on there who have established themselves in MLB in any way shape or form: Ventura, Mondesi, and Cuthbert.

 

I don't know what this author would write about the Royals, or about the Cards, where I see maybe 4-5 of their prospects who have made it, similar to the Twin's numbers I suppose. Would he write that the Royals, or the Cards have a systemic problem with developing talent? What am I missing?

 

So, to be hyper-critical, I'll say the author is being simplistic, analytically shallow, and a bit lazy with his research, and therefore wrong to a large degree with his conclusion.

[wsnydes]

 

In most reasonable cases, it stopped around the time the Twins opened the season 20-45ish.

Yup, I was one of the ultra patient ones.  I maintained that I was okay with the approach as long as their was a noticeable plan.  That started to go away at the start of last season, declined sharply at the trade deadline when they neither stayed out of the race or went all in, and then evaporated completely when they did nothing during this past offseason.  The start of this season infuriated me beyond explanation.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yup, I was one of the ultra patient ones.  I maintained that I was okay with the approach as long as their was a noticeable plan.  That started to go away at the start of last season, declined sharply at the trade deadline when they neither stayed out of the race or went all in, and then evaporated completely when they did nothing during this past offseason.  The start of this season infuriated me beyond explanation.  

Last midseason pissed me off but not because they didn't go all-in. I didn't think they were good enough to go all-in but had they picked up some bullpen help in June, maybe they squeak into the Wild Card.

 

We all knew the bullpen was a hand grenade with a pulled pin; why couldn't Ryan see it?

 

Picking up Jepsen was fine. Picking up Cotts was fine. I didn't want much more than that but it needed to happen at least one month earlier than it did (or the Twins should have aggressively pulled from the minors earlier in the season).

 

I didn't love this offseason and questioned many of the moves (and non-moves) but ultimately felt that this was it for Ryan and the front office. If they succeeded, then good on them. If they failed and the team took a step back, then they need to be replaced.

 

Well, we know how that went. I'm a pretty patient guy and I don't advocate firing a person based on what I predict the future will be but I do believe in firing people if a modest expectation is not met after 4+ years of work.

[wsnydes]

 

Last midseason pissed me off but not because they didn't go all-in. I didn't think they were good enough to go all-in but had they picked up some bullpen help in June, maybe they squeak into the Wild Card.

 

We all knew the bullpen was a hand grenade with a pulled pin; why couldn't Ryan see it?

 

Picking up Jepsen was fine. Picking up Cotts was fine. I didn't want much more than that but it needed to happen at least one month earlier than it did (or the Twins should have aggressively pulled from the minors earlier in the season).

 

I didn't love this offseason and questioned many of the moves (and non-moves) but ultimately felt that this was it for Ryan and the front office. If they succeeded, then good on them. If they failed and the team took a step back, then they need to be replaced.

 

Well, we know how that went. I'm a pretty patient guy and I don't advocate firing a person based on what I predict the future will be but I do believe in firing people if a modest expectation is not met after 4+ years of work.

I'd classify myself as exceedingly patient with things of this nature, probably to a fault at times.  I was in the group that didn't really want them to do much at the deadline as well.  I didn't think they were good enough either.  If they did anything at all, it should be to improve for the future.  I was far more irritated that they didn't commit one way or the other though.  They neither sold, nor completely went for it.  The lack of commitment to a direction is what was slowly eroding my support anyway.  Last season just brought me to that tipping point faster.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'd classify myself as exceedingly patient with things of this nature, probably to a fault at times.  I was in the group that didn't really want them to do much at the deadline as well.  I didn't think they were good enough either.  If they did anything at all, it should be to improve for the future.  I was far more irritated that they didn't commit one way or the other though.  They neither sold, nor completely went for it.  The lack of commitment to a direction is what was slowly eroding my support anyway.  Last season just brought me to that tipping point faster.  

Eh, I don't believe the decision is binary. There are options between "I fold" and "I push all my chips into the middle". I thought Ryan did an okay job of keeping the Twins in contention without selling valuable prospects but what I find irksome is that Ryan didn't do a damned thing before July 31st. That mid-July collapse basically cost the team the Wild Card and it was entirely preventable.

 

I'm not picking on you but I see too many people advocate a fire sale or trading all the prospects. There's nothing wrong with seeing a team with future potential, enjoying a bit of luck today, and giving that team a few more assets to see if they can turn a single season into something interesting while not mortgaging the future.

 

There are also times to fire sale. There are also times to go all in, which the Twins have been loathe to do. I'm not making excuses for those past mistakes but 2015 was a different animal. The Twins were pretty decent, making a surprise run, and either shutting it down or trading Berrios/Kepler aren't the best options in that situation most of the time.

 

Sometimes, it's okay to aim for the middle if you have loftier goals in the near future.

[wsnydes]

 

Eh, I don't believe the decision is binary. There are options between "I fold" and "I push all my chips into the middle". I thought Ryan did an okay job of keeping the Twins in contention without selling valuable prospects but what I find irksome is that Ryan didn't do a damned thing before July 31st. That mid-July collapse basically cost the team the Wild Card and it was entirely preventable.

 

I'm not picking on you but I see too many people advocate a fire sale or trading all the prospects. There's nothing wrong with seeing a team with future potential, a bit of luck today, and giving that team a few more assets to see if they can turn a single season into something interesting without mortgaging the future.

 

There are also times to fire sale. There are also times to go all in, which the Twins have been loathe to do. I'm not making excuses for those past mistakes but 2015 was a different animal. The Twins were pretty decent, making a surprise run, and either shutting it down or trading Berrios/Kepler aren't the best options in that situation most of the time.

No worries, I don't feel like you're picking on me.  I agree with you completely actually.  I didn't want them to hold a fire sale, still don't now.  I think it would have been a mistake to go all in, yet I think more could have been done without mortgaging the farm (even though I would have disagreed with the intent).  I think it was the frustration of the prior offseason and continuation of more of the same - half-assing things in hopes that something good happens.  Neither rebuilding nor trying to contend.  In essence, they were just treading water - neither drowning nor swimming to shore.  That mentality carried into this past offseason and into the early part of the season when it was obvious that the fork had been stuck in them.  I think it largely still exists today.

 

I just want this team to decide on where they are and work to move in that direction.  Quit treading water.  It's time to commit to the future by allowing the youth to take over and to build from that.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Took the Royals 1/4 of a decade for that strategy to work. And it still appears they got a little lucky.

 

Hard to get to the World Series two years in a row. Sure, every team has a little luck, but great defense and OK pitching and a dominant bullpen and an offense that puts the ball in play is a good strategy. 

 

But, it took that group a long time too. They certainly had some rough times in their early big league days.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

No worries, I don't feel like you're picking on me.  I agree with you completely actually.  I didn't want them to hold a fire sale, still don't now.  I think it would have been a mistake to go all in, yet I think more could have been done without mortgaging the farm (even though I would have disagreed with the intent).  I think it was the frustration of the prior offseason and continuation of more of the same - half-assing things in hopes that something good happens.  Neither rebuilding nor trying to contend.  In essence, they were just treading water - neither drowning nor swimming to shore.  That mentality carried into this past offseason and into the early part of the season when it was obvious that the fork had been stuck in them.  I think it largely still exists today.

 

I just want this team to decide on where they are and work to move in that direction.  Quit treading water.  It's time to commit to the future by allowing the youth to take over and to build from that.

That's fair. We mostly agree.

[Mr. Brooks]

Yeah I'd expect the kid who'd been playing professionally since 16 to be better than the college kid. Are you saying that professional baseball is easier than college? What percentage chance do you believe Sano has of reaching or surpassing Bryant's current level of production?

Sano had an OPS+ of 149 last year, at age 22.

Bryant is at 156 this year, as a 24 year old.

 

I'd give Sano a 40% chance of being the better offensive player.

[Doomtints]

 

Sano had an OPS+ of 149 last year, at age 22.
Bryant is at 156 this year, as a 24 year old.

I'd give Sano a 40% chance of being the better offensive player.

 

At that level, what does it matter?

The Twins are on pace to destroy his arm by having him field (poorly) so he flames out early anyway.

[Jham]

 

Sano had an OPS+ of 149 last year, at age 22.
Bryant is at 156 this year, as a 24 year old.

I'd give Sano a 40% chance of being the better offensive player.

So we have one 0% vote, and a 40% vote.  My biggest issue with Sano is his swing plane which generates too much topspin and his K's which both bring down BA and OBP.  Bryant has not demonstrated those issues, while Sano has never really shown an ability to hit for average and not strike out.  Bryant hasn't really faced those struggles (30% last season down to 21% this year).  

So Sano has been known as a precocious type his whole career.  I think it would be odd for him now to be a late bloomer, but I'm less optimistic.  I'd still say he has a 10-20% chance of making some adjustments and getting to Kris Bryant's level.  But I think there's at least that much of a chance that he's basically at his peak now.  Right now, I think he's still got the reputation around the league.  By the time we know he's a positionless .260 hitter with 30-35 HR and top 5 in K's, so will the rest of the league.  That's pretty good, but not really a rare talent.  

I'd be completely in your boat of waiting and hoping for the best if we had any other way of obtaining pitching.  I can just see all those failed rebuilds in Kansas City and Pitt and Houston having conversations about their guys for a decade straight before the right group finally came along and everyone says, "See, it's because the embraced the rebuild."  Yankees signed Andrew Miller and Ardolis Chapman and turned them for big hauls.  And they're still competing because they just accumulate talent.  The Twins need to accumulate talent, not hoard it.

[Rosterman]

What would be more interesting would be if the writer actually looked at the stream of prospects. We have three centerfielders that were high picks: Revere, Hicks and Buxton. What happened, and throw Carlos Gomez in the mix?

 

And you look even at the starters going back to Garza. Gibson, Wimmers, Berrios, Stewart and Jay. 

 

Whew! Judging these guys from the day they were originally signed...The Twins had Gold!

 

What happened?

[Mr. Brooks]

So we have one 0% vote, and a 40% vote. My biggest issue with Sano is his swing plane which generates too much topspin and his K's which both bring down BA and OBP. Bryant has not demonstrated those issues, while Sano has never really shown an ability to hit for average and not strike out. Bryant hasn't really faced those struggles (30% last season down to 21% this year).

 

So Sano has been known as a precocious type his whole career. I think it would be odd for him now to be a late bloomer, but I'm less optimistic. I'd still say he has a 10-20% chance of making some adjustments and getting to Kris Bryant's level. But I think there's at least that much of a chance that he's basically at his peak now. Right now, I think he's still got the reputation around the league. By the time we know he's a positionless .260 hitter with 30-35 HR and top 5 in K's, so will the rest of the league. That's pretty good, but not really a rare talent.

 

I'd be completely in your boat of waiting and hoping for the best if we had any other way of obtaining pitching. I can just see all those failed rebuilds in Kansas City and Pitt and Houston having conversations about their guys for a decade straight before the right group finally came along and everyone says, "See, it's because the embraced the rebuild." Yankees signed Andrew Miller and Ardolis Chapman and turned them for big hauls. And they're still competing because they just accumulate talent. The Twins need to accumulate talent, not hoard it.

Late bloomer?

Dude, Sano is 23 years old. Of course he is going to improve.

 

And he was already at Bryant's level last year, as a 22 year old rookie.

Sure, he's had a sophomore slump this year, but I'd be shocked if he didn't bounce back next year and put up 150 OPS+ or better.

 

Trading a guy of Sano's talent with 5 years of team control remaining would be pretty much unprecedented. And it would be a hail Mary to think you are going to get a better player back.