Standings

[goulik]

The Minnesota Twins have caught up to Arizona and are now only half a game behind the Reds and the Rays. While fun to watch homers and winning baseball, our draft stock is dropping, and, Sorry Common Man, they will not be as Epically bad as you hoped. The question now is how far will they climb?

[Mike Sixel]

6-7th worst?

[Brock Beauchamp]

6-7th worst?

Even at their low point, I figured they'd climb to 4-5. Now I think it might be more like 6-7.

 

There are just too many bad NL teams. The Twins could stay in the AL cellar and still pick fourth pretty easily.

[gunnarthor]

I could see them getting the 9th pick.  They might finish better than Dbacks, Padres, Reds, Brewers, Braves, A's, Angels, Rays.  And the Phillies are dropping so that could be another.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

I could see them getting the 9th pick.  They might finish better than Dbacks, Padres, Reds, Brewers, Braves, A's, Angels, Rays.  And the Phillies are dropping so that could be another.  

 

I agree, when you look, you can see them in that range.

 

That will be a massive drop in talent in the first pick from what I assumed a couple months ago, when I thought they might fix their catching situation. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I agree, when you look, you can see them in that range.

 

That will be a massive drop in talent in the first pick from what I assumed a couple months ago, when I thought they might fix their catching situation. 

If you mean "fix their 2020 catching situation", then that might be possible.

 

But any 2017-2018 fix is going to have to come from outside the organization. Even collegiate catchers spend a fair amount of time in the minors, as it's hardest job on the diamond.

[D. Hocking]

Objectively, I know it is better draft wise for them to finish lower and get the better draft pick, but damn it is fun to see them win and get out of the cellar a bit.

 

Plus, maybe if they finish strong they will enter next year with the attitude they can win and that will compensate for a not as good draft pick (not to rationalize or anything...).

[Mike Sixel]

 

If you mean "fix their 2020 catching situation", then that might be possible.

 

But any 2017-2018 fix is going to have to come from outside the organization. Even collegiate catchers spend a fair amount of time in the minors, as it's hardest job on the diamond.

 

I'd guess he'll be in the minors for 1.5 years at most......so, 2019 or so. But ya, I wasn't talking 17 or even 18.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Objectively, I know it is better draft wise for them to finish lower and get the better draft pick, but damn it is fun to see them win and get out of the cellar a bit.

 

Plus, maybe if they finish strong they will enter next year with the attitude they can win and that will compensate for a not as good draft pick (not to rationalize or anything...).

We shouldn't care about the 2017 draft too much.

 

This isn't a Twins team that is thriving on the performances of 30+ year old players. They're winning ballgames from the performance of a bunch of pre-arb guys, many of them below age 25.

 

If someone is hoping to see the Twins tank, they're also hoping a bunch of young players fall on their face, limiting the team's ability to compete in both 2017 and 2018.

 

That seems... Backwards.

[gunnarthor]

 

I agree, when you look, you can see them in that range.

 

That will be a massive drop in talent in the first pick from what I assumed a couple months ago, when I thought they might fix their catching situation. 

The two big catchers probably don't slip to 9 or 10 but next years draft is supposed to be pretty loaded - on par with the 2011 draft.  So we'll still get a nice pick in the top 10.  And weird things still happen.  Groome was #1 or 2 on many boards but fell to 11.  Anderson at 3 was a safety pick.  So, we'll see.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'd guess he'll be in the minors for 1.5 years at most......so, 2019 or so. But ya, I wasn't talking 17 or even 18.

I assume you're talking about Harrison?

 

He'd go no higher than low A in 2017. He might jump all the way to AA in 2018 but that's unlikely, as teams often retard their catching prospects a bit to make sure they have a grip on the fundamentals.

 

The very earliest we'd see him is halfway through the 2019 season, probably more likely the 2020 season.

 

I'm all in favor of the Twins patching their catching situation but that's a long-term concept. We'd see the guy right as Sano and possibly Buxton are hitting arbitration. He might not even be any good until 2021-22.

 

That's a long time from now.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I assume you're talking about Harrison?

 

He'd go no higher than low A in 2017. He might jump all the way to AA in 2018 but that's unlikely.

 

The very earliest we'd see him is halfway through the 2019 season, probably more likely the 2020 season.

 

I'm all in favor of the Twins patching their catching situation but that's a long-term concept. We'd see the guy right as Sano and possibly Buxton are hitting arbitration. He might not even hit until 2021-22.

 

That's a long time from now.

 

Yes, yes it is. 

[Shane Wahl]

I want no part of high draft picks ever again. Win, win, win, please. 

[Loosey]

They are currently 45-66 with 51 games remaining.  They are exactly 30-30 since June 1 and 20-13 since July 1.  If they continue to play slightly better than .500 baseball, say 27-24 they will finish the season 72-90.  Last season if a team had 72 wins that would have given them the 8th overall pick.  The 7th pick (Miami) had 71 wins and the 8th pick (San Diego) had 74 wins.

 

So my guess is along the lines of most of the other posters.  Somewhere in the 7-9 range will be their pick.

[Vanimal46]

With how much of a crapshoot the MLB Draft is in general, it doesn't matter if they have the #4 pick or the #10 pick. I prefer to see more wins this year to build towards next season. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

With how much of a crapshoot the MLB Draft is in general, it doesn't matter if they have the #4 pick or the #10 pick. I prefer to see more wins this year to build towards next season. 

 

Wanna bet on that?

[Loosey]

I also want to see them continue to win.  Watching these guys the last month has been fun, it's just too bad it took them 3 months to figure it out. 

 

Draft Picks in baseball to me aren't that big of deal if you are picking 1 or 15.  There are so many variables with baseball and guys can fall, some teams don't want to pick guys due to age, need, etc.  I also hope who the Twins pick next year doesn't even play for the team.  Hopefully, the Twins will be in position in a few years to be able to trade a top pick for an established player to bolster their team and make deep playoff runs.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I also want to see them continue to win.  Watching these guys the last month has been fun, it's just too bad it took them 3 months to figure it out. 

 

Draft Picks in baseball to me aren't that big of deal if you are picking 1 or 15.  There are so many variables with baseball and guys can fall, some teams don't want to pick guys due to age, need, etc.  I also hope who the Twins pick next year doesn't even play for the team.  Hopefully, the Twins will be in position in a few years to be able to trade a top pick for an established player to bolster their team and make deep playoff runs.

 

You wanna make a bet on 15 vs 1, average career WAR?

[beckmt]

I could see them getting into the mid 70 win category given their schedule and other teams starting to struggle with injuries.  It will also depend on whether they sell  more pieces in August(which I am hoping they do).

[Vanimal46]

 

Wanna bet on that?

Ha, bet on what? That the #10 pick is worse than the #4 pick? 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Ha, bet on what? That the #10 pick is worse than the #4 pick? 

 

yes, or as someone else said, 15th vs 1.......

[Vanimal46]

 

yes, or as someone else said, 15th vs 1.......

Sure, are we going to be around in 6 years to determine the winner of the bet?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I also want to see them continue to win.  Watching these guys the last month has been fun, it's just too bad it took them 3 months to figure it out. 

 

Draft Picks in baseball to me aren't that big of deal if you are picking 1 or 15.  There are so many variables with baseball and guys can fall, some teams don't want to pick guys due to age, need, etc.  I also hope who the Twins pick next year doesn't even play for the team.  Hopefully, the Twins will be in position in a few years to be able to trade a top pick for an established player to bolster their team and make deep playoff runs.

I wouldn't go quite that far. I'd say it matters less if you're picking 4-15 but those first 2-3 picks are usually the cream of the crop, the guys most likely to succeed. After that, it becomes more nebulous, with quick-to-rise college players dicing with rougher prep guys.

[Craig Arko]

 

Sure, are we going to be around in 6 years to determine the winner of the bet?

Depends on the results of the election.

[Major League Ready]

Seems pretty well reasoned.  There are 7 other teams currently on pace to lose 90 or more games. Let's hope a couple of them finish strong and the Twins around 6.  I would rather the Twins finish even stronger than slightly above 500.  That would likely mean more to our future than a slightly better pick next June.

[Loosey]

 

You wanna make a bet on 15 vs 1, average career WAR?

No, not really.

[Loosey]

 

I wouldn't go quite that far. I'd say it matters less if you're picking 4-15 but those first 2-3 picks are usually the cream of the crop, the guys most likely to succeed. After that, it becomes more nebulous, with quick-to-rise college players dicing with rougher prep guys.

I agree with that.  But I never expected the Twins to be in that 1-3 range.  4-10, 11-15 is hit or miss especially when you are picking high schoolers.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I agree with that.  But I never expected the Twins to be in that 1-3 range.  4-10, 11-15 is hit or miss especially when you are picking high schoolers.

 

Fair.....very fair.

 

When the season looked completely lost, I was hoping to be in the top 3......but now that Kepler is here, and Berrios is here, and Gibson is healthy......I would rather they grow this year and not be in the top 3, I think.

[jud6312]

For the years 1987 through 2011 here is the average WAR for the draft positions that have been mentioned in this thread:

 

#1 - 26.22

#15 - 6.58

 

The #1s from this time frame includes Ken Griffey Jr. (83.6), Chipper Jones (85) and Alex Rodriguez (117.9). If you eliminate three of the best to ever play from the equation, that number drops to 16.7 avg. WAR for the remaining 22 players.

 

#4 - 6.78

#10 - 11.74

 

So, yes, there's a noticeable difference between 1 and 15, but it's much less noticeable in the 4-10 range.

[laloesch]

 

With how much of a crapshoot the MLB Draft is in general, it doesn't matter if they have the #4 pick or the #10 pick. I prefer to see more wins this year to build towards next season. 

 

Well if your scouting department consistently misjudges talent and wastes high draft picks on guys like Kohl Stewart #4 (wildly overrated soft tossing righty) and Tyler Jay #6 (a career RP whom the Twins were attempting to convert into a starter and apparently have given up on), yeah it doesn't matter if we have the #4 or #10.