Is it better to be late to the party or get there early

[Loosey]

 

This season's trade deadline is looking to be different from last season when there wasn't a definite line on who were sellers and who were going to be buyers.

 

This year however, the buyers and sellers have been pretty well established and the trades have begun.  However, the team that should be the the biggest seller is still sitting on its hands waiting.  That team if you haven't already figured it out is the Twins.

 

Realistically the team has 5 or 6 reasonable trade candidates (Santana, Nolasco, Nunez, Kinzler, Abad and possibly Dozier).  But while other teams establish themselves and and begin trading, partners begin to disappear.  Boston received a nice starter in Pomeranz, the Cubs upgraded their pen and other rumors have begun to swirl with many other teams talks heating up.

 

So should the Twins get in on the action now and find their partners or is it in their best interest to wait until the the big deals have gone down and hope the remaining teams are A) Desperate Willing (That sounds like me back in College).  

 

Personally I don't think the trade chips the Twins have are going to create a team to desperately give away more than they should.  And its beginning to look like their might be more sellers than buyers this year, so I'm hoping they get on the phone and start moving parts.  Because when it's all said and done the party might clear out and the Twins could be left standing alone with the Dudes they came with.

 

 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

I'd rather deal early because there is always the chance a guy gets hurt a week before the deadline and then you can't move him.

[nicksaviking]

I'd rather deal early so as to make sure room is cleared off of my roster for the young guys. This team really shouldn't be haggling over which C level prospects will come back to them, they have more than enough of those guys in the system.

 

They don't have to "win" the trade to come out on top. Of course Anthony probably thinks he needs to "win" trades to make his resume look better, of course, he better not be dealing for guys who can help in 2016, but instead 2017 and beyond so we should have no idea if he "wins" any trades until he's long gone.

[Vanimal46]

I've always thought to deal early too. I think that's a myth that teams get more desperate towards the end of the deadline and the returns are better. 

I'd rather set the bar for what the returns are going to be instead of letting someone else set the bar. 

[Mike Sixel]

Well, we already saw 1 more start by Milone by waiting.....while Berrios sits in AAA.....so, earlier.

[rghrbek]

I hope people are steeling themselves to be underwhelmed....I know I am.

[old nurse]

Teams passed on Kinzler and Abad over the winter. hey are having good seasons, but already they were a second  or more choice of teams. Nunez is still a utility guy having either a career year or a breakout year. At his age, it is the latter. Utility guys are nice to have but there is no urgency. Contracts of the others means to trade for them is a commitment that the teams might not want to make. As a last resort. That would be a reason why there is no movement and likely to only be last day or late August movement.

[old nurse]

Millone is probably way down on anyone's list. Disaster plan for September.

 

[gocgo]

I'm just afraid we won't  be invited to the party.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I hope people are steeling themselves to be underwhelmed....I know I am.

 

As am I....this is a team that doesn't want Berrios up because he hasn't been good enough....why should I trust them on this?

 

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/baseball/2016/07/22/berrios-continues-show-wings-hes-show-worthy/87458062/

 

[HitInAPinch]

 

I'm just afraid we won't  be able to find the party.

FTFY    

[clone52]

You all act like its just the Twins choice on when to make these trades.  The problem is, the Twins don't have amazing trade pieces.  They only have solid trade pieces.

 

No one is going to trade for Suzuki until they know they can't get Lucroy.

No one is going to trade for Santana or Nolasco until they know they won't get Cashner, Rich Hill, Ororizza, Moore or in a pipe dream, Sale.

No one is going to trade for Abad or Kintzler until they miss out on Chapman (already done), and possibly other relievers.

There are some other infielders on the marker that might make it tougher to move Nunez.

 

You could move them all super quick if you wanted to make garbage trades, but buyers have lots of other options out there right now and until those options are depleted, that is going to affect the kind of offers the Twins will get.

[mazeville]

 

I hope people are steeling themselves to be underwhelmed....I know I am.

 

I've long steeled myself to be underwhelmed when it comes to the Twins and the trade deadline. I'm permanently steeled, in fact.

[mazeville]

 

You all act like its just the Twins choice on when to make these trades.  The problem is, the Twins don't have amazing trade pieces.  They only have solid trade pieces.

 

They actually DO have amazing trade pieces. Sano would fetch a ton. But nobody would consider trading him.

 

I get the point. Keep the expectations when it comes to the Twins and the trade deadline low. It's not like people are knocking the door down trying to get Ricky Nolasco or Fernando Abad ...

[clone52]

 

They actually DO have amazing trade pieces. Sano would fetch a ton. But nobody would consider trading him.

 

I get the point. Keep the expectations when it comes to the Twins and the trade deadline low. It's not like people are knocking the door down trying to get Ricky Nolasco or Fernando Abad ...

 

If they can dump some guys for some decent return at the deadline, I'll be happy.

[Jerr]

 

I hope people are steeling themselves to be underwhelmed....I know I am.

I've been a Twins fan since day one, faaaarrrr more years of being underwhelmed and almost expect it now.

[Mr. Brooks]

According to MLB Trade rumors, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Ervin won't be moved. They are holding out for an offer that "blows them away".

With such an inflated sense of the worth of their own players, yeah it's going to be a pretty dull deadline.

[nicksaviking]

You could move them all super quick if you wanted to make garbage trades, but buyers have lots of other options out there right now and until those options are depleted, that is going to affect the kind of offers the Twins will get.

The point many of us are making is that we don't care if it's a "garbage" trade. Getting Berrios a half dozen extra MLB starts or Polanco an extra month or two of MLB AB's is probably much more important to 2017 success than adding another Travis Harrison or DJ Baxendale.

 

Anthony has been put in a position that hypothetical 2017 success is likely not going to help him land the GM gig though.

[nicksaviking]

According to MLB Trade rumors, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Ervin won't be moved. They are holding out for an offer that "blows them away".

With such an inflated sense of the worth of their own players, yeah it's going to be a pretty dull deadline.

This time of year every team values their players way to high, at least to the media. I think we need to wait at least a week to make blanket statements if we want to make them at all.

[jimmer]

 

According to MLB Trade rumors, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Ervin won't be moved. They are holding out for an offer that "blows them away".
With such an inflated sense of the worth of their own players, yeah it's going to be a pretty dull deadline.

It was always going to be a dull deadline.  Like it is pretty much every single year.  Our big move was Ryan being removed/quitting.

[Loosey]

 

You all act like its just the Twins choice on when to make these trades.  The problem is, the Twins don't have amazing trade pieces.  They only have solid trade pieces.

 

No one is going to trade for Suzuki until they know they can't get Lucroy.

No one is going to trade for Santana or Nolasco until they know they won't get Cashner, Rich Hill, Ororizza, Moore or in a pipe dream, Sale.

No one is going to trade for Abad or Kintzler until they miss out on Chapman (already done), and possibly other relievers.

There are some other infielders on the marker that might make it tougher to move Nunez.

 

You could move them all super quick if you wanted to make garbage trades, but buyers have lots of other options out there right now and until those options are depleted, that is going to affect the kind of offers the Twins will get.

The Twins are in a position to unload players that are not (Should not) be in their future plans.  Santana is a good a starting pitcher.  He is not an Ace but he is also a lot better than a #4 or #5 starter.  The Twins probably want something similar to what the Padres got for Pomeranz, which is never going to happen.  However, if the Twins can get a decent piece they open up a permanent spot Berrios and free up an additional $14M for them to play with in the offseason to bolster the roster.  The trades the Twins make right now should not be entirely about the return they get and Antony should not be so worried about winning the trade, that he forgets the main objective is making the team better, or at least better positioned for the future.

[clone52]

 

The Twins are in a position to unload players that are not (Should not) be in their future plans.  Santana is a good a starting pitcher.  He is not an Ace but he is also a lot better than a #4 or #5 starter.  The Twins probably want something similar to what the Padres got for Pomeranz, which is never going to happen.  However, if the Twins can get a decent piece they open up a permanent spot Berrios and free up an additional $14M for them to play with in the offseason to bolster the roster.  The trades the Twins make right now should not be entirely about the return they get and Antony should not be so worried about winning the trade, that he forgets the main objective is making the team better, or at least better positioned for the future.

 

Why do you think the Twins are overvalueing their players?  Do you have inside information?  Maybe the best offer they have gotten is some 23 year old in A ball.

 

Its a nice narrative for people to have.  If the Twins don't get a return you like you can blame how they passed on all the better trade offers, waited too long and got garbage.

[Monkeypaws]

If you were the GM of another team, would you trade for Nolasco? Malone? Suzuki?

 

These guys are trying to make their teams better, not worse.

[Loosey]

 

Why do you think the Twins are overvalueing their players?  Do you have inside information?  Maybe the best offer they have gotten is some 23 year old in A ball.

 

Its a nice narrative for people to have.  If the Twins don't get a return you like you can blame how they passed on all the better trade offers, waited too long and got garbage.

I never said they were over-valuing their players.  I said they probably want something similar to the Pomeranz trade, and the reason I said that is because Antony has stated they basically will need to get a very great return on Santana if they trade him.  And I don't even really disagree with him on Santana.  If the Twins FO is honest with themselves and think they can compete next year for at least a Wild Card then they should hold out on Santana for something great or keep him.  But if 2018 is more reasonable opening up rotation spots and cash should be a priority.

[clone52]

 

I never said they were over-valuing their players.  I said they probably want something similar to the Pomeranz trade, and the reason I said that is because Antony has stated they basically will need to get a very great return on Santana if they trade him.  And I don't even really disagree with him on Santana.  If the Twins FO is honest with themselves and think they can compete next year for at least a Wild Card then they should hold out on Santana for something great or keep him.  But if 2018 is more reasonable opening up rotation spots and cash should be a priority.

 

I think 2017 is a very realistic goal to be in Wild Card contention.  Considering the Twins were in contention at 83-79 last year, you really only have to be a .500 team to be in contention.  Add that to the fact that the Twins are 16-14 in their last 30 games, it appears as though they might be back to the same level as they were last year.  You would expect growth from the young guys next year (Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Rosario mostly) and other than a continual decline of Mauer, you wouldn't really expect a big step back on the offensive side of the ball.

 

To me, they need to clear Nolasco and probably Milone to open up rotation spots for Berrios and someone else deserving, but beyond that, they should at least be back in contention this year.

 

If the Twins are near .500 the rest of the way, i think that reflects really well on Molitor for not completely losing the team after a disastrous start.

[mikelink45]

 

According to MLB Trade rumors, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Ervin won't be moved. They are holding out for an offer that "blows them away".
With such an inflated sense of the worth of their own players, yeah it's going to be a pretty dull deadline.

I am afraid the Twins have a habit of over valuing their own players - as fans we fall in to the trap too.  But they are the professionals and after announcing things are going to change they had an obligation to get out front.

 

Santana could have been as valuable as Pomeranz, but that is done and our options are diminished. Waiting for Lucroy and others to go is an excuse, not a reality.  The earlier you trade the longer they have the player and the more valuable they become.

Bullpens are hurting in many places so our pick ups should have been flipped.  We do not need a closer this year.

 

Yes, being early puts you in the conversations and just might give you an advantage. 

[Mike Sixel]

did Buxton grow this year? Why do we expect it?

 

I am always told there is a sophomore slump, is that not true (I don't think so, but others do) and is Kepler immune?

 

You expect Suzuki to be this good next year?

 

If the owner thought they were likely to be in contention next year, would he have fired Ryan? 

[lukeduke1980]

 

If you were the GM of another team, would you trade for Nolasco? Malone? Suzuki?

 

These guys are trying to make their teams better, not worse.

I love this post - but seriously wouldn't Malone or Nolasco to an extent slide nicely into an NL rotation?  RA should be on the phones all day selling this point.  

[prouster]

 

The point many of us are making is that we don't care if it's a "garbage" trade. Getting Berrios a half dozen extra MLB starts or Polanco an extra month or two of MLB AB's is probably much more important to 2017 success than adding another Travis Harrison or DJ Baxendale.

Anthony has been put in a position that hypothetical 2017 success is likely not going to help him land the GM gig though.

 

So your position is that the FO should make trades for the sake of making trades? I think this would be a really irresponsible use of assets, even if those assets aren't worth all that much. I can see making a move to get some bad contracts off the books (Nolasco, mainly), but a lot of the elder statesmen on the Twins roster still have a year or two of control remaining. Why get rid of that when there is still a possibility you could parlay it into something more valuable down the line? The fact of the matter is that not every prospect will turn out the way we all hope. If they decide to have a team full of players 25 and under, we're in for several more years of pain as a fan base.

[clone52]

 

I am afraid the Twins have a habit of over valuing their own players - as fans we fall in to the trap too.  But they are the professionals and after announcing things are going to change they had an obligation to get out front.

 

Santana could have been as valuable as Pomeranz, but that is done and our options are diminished. Waiting for Lucroy and others to go is an excuse, not a reality.  The earlier you trade the longer they have the player and the more valuable they become.

Bullpens are hurting in many places so our pick ups should have been flipped.  We do not need a closer this year.

 

Yes, being early puts you in the conversations and just might give you an advantage. 

 

That is really hilarious.  In what world is Ervin Santana as valuable as Drew Pomeranz?  Pomeranz is far younger and far cheaper than Santana, and as far as I can tell, just as effective if not more effective than Santana.

 

Sure, you don't have to wait for Lucroy to be traded, but if teams think they have a shot at Lucroy, they aren't even going to listen to offers for Suzuki.

 

Abad and Kintzler can still be flipped.