Underreported

[stringer bell]

Many discussion topics have been beaten to death. Some, I think, are underreported. Here are some things about the Twins that I think haven't been discussed enough:

 

Bullpen strikeouts. Remember the pitch-to-contact bullpen of the Twins last winning season? Yeah, that's right, last year. Casey Fien, Brian Duensing,Blaine Boyer, Aaron Thompson, and Neal Cotts all had less than 6 Ks per nine for the Twins. None of them are with the Twins this year, and they have been replaced by the likes of Michael Tonkin, Taylor Rogers, Ryan Pressly, and Fernando Abad who all average 8.2 K per nine or more. Granted Pressly and Tonkin have pitched for the Twins in both '15 and '16, but their roles have evolved to higher leverage this year. A footnote to this topic--the Twins bullpen has been bad, but the reason isn't the new guys or the younger guys with bigger roles, it is the failure of the end of the bullpen--May, Jepsen, and Perkins (injury) which stood everything on it's head.

 

Kepler's home run power. Max Kepler has 10 homers for the Twins. He never hit more than 10 in any season in the minors, including the extremely hitter-friendly Appy League. Last year, Kepler broke out at AA, led the league in OBP and OPS and was right there in slugging percentage, but he only hit nine homers in nearly a full season. Here in the major leagues in about 200 PAs, he already has 10 big flies.

 

Brandon Kinzler. Yeah, he's 31, with a so-so career, but he's been really good. Pretty easy to see why--he throws hard enough, gets a high ground ball percentage, keeps the ball in the park and doesn't walk people. I'd rather see the team get something of value for him this month than count on him to sustain his performance beyond this year.

 

Home run happy. The Twins are on a pace to score 705 runs this year compared to 696 last year, but they project to hit 186 homers as compared to 156 last year. They've become more dependent on the long ball and the results are mixed at best.

 

Eduardo Escobar. Penciled in to be the Twins regular shortstop, he has been pushed aside by Eduardo Nuñez. Part of the reduction in playing time is related to Escobar's overall play. He has hit sporadically and his defense has been a disappointment. Escobar has never been considered a guy with great range, but has been sure-handed and flexible. This year he's only played a few innings away from short, but has booted more balls in a half-season than he had in the previous two combined.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

[PseudoSABR]

My feeble fan-mind can't yet grasp Kepler's talent.  He still doesn't look confident to me, yet look at his production so far, and that effortless swing...

[Shaitan]

I'm torn on what to do with some of these controlled players like Nunez and Kinzler. Trades for low level semi-prospects tend to fizzle. Maybe they can get an Alexii Casilla while opening an audition slot for someone else. Is that worth the loss of a little consistency? Hard to say when all the team has going for it today is a 2 or 3 consistent players.

 

 

Good points on the BP stat anomalies. Though the BP was supposed to be Fien to May to Jepsen to Perkins and, well, May is still on the team and even he missed a good chunk of time.

 

These fluke stats (like the improved K/BB ratio) are what make baseball fun.

 

[Vanimal46]

If my math is right, the Twins are on a pace to increase their HR total by 16%. The league as a whole is on pace for a 13.8% increase in HRs this year. Always nice to be ahead of the median! 

 

[jimmer]

 

If my math is right, the Twins are on a pace to increase their HR total by 16%. The league as a whole is on pace for a 13.8% increase in HRs this year. Always nice to be ahead of the median! 

 

Game is turning more and more into true three outcomes every year :-)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Granted Pressly and Tonkin have pitched for the Twins in both '15 and '16, but their roles have evolved to higher leverage this year.                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Actually, not in the case of Tonkin -- his game entering leverage index has actually decreased a hair from 2015 to 2016...

[DocBauer]

Agreed on the pen. The numbers will be even better with Chargois and others on their way. Despite a "bad" pen this year, I actually think it's improved. As stated, it was really the back end of the pen, especially early on, that caused bad numbers, losses and the such.

 

Kepler's HR don't surprise me a bit. It's part of the maturation process. Physically, stroke wise, he's always had 20 HR potential. His overall power is just maturing.

 

Also agree on trying to move Kinzler if we can. To free the roster spot if nothing else. Banking on him for the future of a number of interesting bullpen prospects seems a fools errand. Still a little torn on Abad however.

 

The team HR production is nice, and helps bode well for the future. But more guys OB and better clutch hitting would also be nice.

[diehardtwinsfan]

He had a noticeable power spike last season mid way through.  And let's face it, Kepler is young.  I think the could end up having 20 HR type power to go with good on base skills  and above average corner defense.  That's a very nice player.

[Thrylos]

Those are valid points, but the measuring stick should be the league and not past Twins' teams.  Here are how the top Twins' relief pitchers rank among their league peers in K/9 (20 IP or more) :

 

8th (May), 33rd (Tonkin), 80th (Rogers), 119th (Pressly), 121st (Abad), 180th (Kintzler)

 

As a whole the Twins are ranked dead smack in the middle of the league tied with the Phillies for 15th in K/9.

 

Better than last season?  Of course.   Good enough? Maybe.  Good enough for a post-season team?  Nope.  But definitely something to build upon.   Take the 3 who are in the top 100 and supplement them with 1 pitcher in the top 10, one in top 30 and one in top 50, and you got something...

 

Abad and Kintzler are perfect trade candidates. 

Kintzler's ERA-FIP (2.20-3.38,) BABIP (.256,) and strand rate (85.5%) all say sell while you can and so do Abad's ERA-FIP (2.73-3.52,) BABIP (.269,) and strand rate (78.3%) but less loudly.

 

And they are both in the wrong side of 30.  These guys are Fien2.0  Gifts that should have taken care of and not dragged around until their luck ran out.

 

Re: Kepler's power.  So far his power (.259 IsoP) and slash line (.229/.309/.488) look a lot like, but slightly better than those of Eddie Rosario last season (.192 IsoP, .267/.289/.459).  Matter of fact he is the same age that Rosario was last season.  He is developing, trending the right way, but has a long way to go. 

 

Is he the Twins' best OF today?  Maybe.  Would he be in the starting OF for a post-season team? Likely not.

 

So good signs, but still needs a lot of work (and esp. on the other side of the ball, his defense, esp. range, is below average; being better than Sano's does not matter.)

[Loosey]

I hope the Twins realize how important Kepler might become to them.  I still have faith that Buxton will become a great player, but if he doesn't I am also realizing that they have another very young, potential All-Star quality CF if he doesn't in Kepler. 

[70charger]

 

Actually, not in the case of Tonkin -- his game entering leverage index has actually decreased a hair from 2015 to 2016...

 

Fewer games that the team actually had a shot at winning?

[kab21]

 

Those are valid points, but the measuring stick should be the league and not past Twins' teams.  Here are how the top Twins' relief pitchers rank among their league peers in K/9 (20 IP or more) :

 

8th (May), 33rd (Tonkin), 80th (Rogers), 119th (Pressly), 121st (Abad), 180th (Kintzler)

 

As a whole the Twins are ranked dead smack in the middle of the league tied with the Phillies for 15th in K/9.

 

Better than last season?  Of course.   Good enough? Maybe.  Good enough for a post-season team?  Nope.  But definitely something to build upon.   Take the 3 who are in the top 100 and supplement them with 1 pitcher in the top 10, one in top 30 and one in top 50, and you got something...

 

Good grief. The team has went from horrifically awful to average in K/9 in a season and most of the below average K pitchers are likely out the door at the end of the season. Obviously they aren't done and the biggest question mark is whether or not these young pitchers can sustain the improvement but this is more than something to build on. This is a major accomplishment in the dreadfully awful season.

 

Abad and Kintzler aren't really perfect trade candidates. Perfect trade candidates return something of value. They are having nice seasons but their value probably somewhere around the 30th best org prospect if the Twins are lucky. Fien is a decent comp for Kintzler (value wise). There were more than a few that criticized the Twins for not selling high. Except that nobody was buying high. They know what Fien and Kintzler (probably better than Fien but still...) are.