Arcia Traded to the Rays

[LaBombo]

 

 

  Rotting on the bench,  I see you must have missed following about half the Twins games as you appear not to notice how he played.

 

How Arcia played can be described in one word, 'sparingly'.

 

After proving himself as one the Twins' best hitters in nearly 800 PA's over two seasons in his early 20's, the Twins responded to Arcia's 2015 injury by pretty much taking him out behind the barn and shooting him.

 

And yes, he didn't hit well in AAA after coming back, but nobody hits well when their BABIP is 70 points below the league average. Whether the Twins took that into account or simply let the 'sound of the ball coming off his bat' be their guide, we'll probably (and fortunately) never know.
 

[stringer bell]

Read through most of this thread and the same thing keeps coming to me:   The Oswaldo Arcia that has graced a major league uniform has power, but has too many holes to be a good hitter--he gets beat on high fastballs and they don't have to be 95+ and he can't lay off breaking balls in the dirt. That makes him more reliant on getting a mistake to hit than most major leaguers.

 

To me, that makes Arcia mostly more of a suspect than established player or prospect. I don't think he's better than Kepler or Grossman now and probably not as good as Rosario either. The Sano experiment moved him down another notch. Could he be a DH? Sure, but they have Park for this year and two more years and they have Mauer. And there's Sano again, if he can't play third or right, then they have to make him a DH.

 

As has been written here (voluminously), Arcia has demonstrated enough potential offensively and stuff happens that give bench players a chance (look at Eduardo Nuñez), but it didn't happen for Arcia. Further, IMHO, Arcia would be a terrible "bench bat" inserted into the lineup occasionally or used as a pinch hitter. He needs to play regularly (not necessarily every day) to be an effective hitter and the most consistent thing about Arcia is that he's going to hurt a club on defense.

 

If we're beating up the Twins, there is plenty to criticize:   1) Poor use of options. 2) Probable misdiagnosis or underappreciation of his hip injury last year. 3) Improper role on the major league team. 4) Not trading him when his value was higher. 5) For whatever reason no one was able to convince him that liners to the gap beat hitting an extra homer every 60 at-bats or so.

 

Maybe he'll turn into a functional player. I'm not satisfied by his performance in Tampa that he is going to be a new man there, but it could happen. Sometimes guys need a new start. I hope that's true for Arcia. Too bad it didn't work out for the Twins.

[The Wise One]

 

How Arcia played can be described in one word, 'sparingly'.

 

After proving himself as one the Twins' best hitters in nearly 800 PA's over two seasons in his early 20's, the Twins responded to Arcia's 2015 injury by pretty much taking him out behind the barn and shooting him.

 

And yes, he didn't hit well in AAA after coming back, but nobody hits well when their BABIP is 70 points below the league average. Whether the Twins took that into account or simply let the 'sound of the ball coming off his bat' be their guide, we'll probably (and fortunately) never know.
 

A broken down Willingham had a better woba than Arcia in 2013 and 2014 As did many other players.  WRC, behind essentially the same group, as well as many other measures. About the only thing that  Arcia shined in is ISO. Of course, if you do not have a great ability to hit anything besides a HR, you will have a great ISO, and a lousy babip. Blaming a low babib for Arcia's woes is like blaming Worley's demise on his bad luck with a high babip

[gunnarthor]

Wow.  20 pages.

[alarp33]

 

A broken down Willingham had a better woba than Arcia in 2013 and 2014 As did many other players.  WRC, behind essentially the same group, as well as many other measures. About the only thing that  Arcia shined in is ISO. Of course, if you do not have a great ability to hit anything besides a HR, you will have a great ISO, and a lousy babip. Blaming a low babib for Arcia's woes is like blaming Worley's demise on his bad luck with a high babip

 

Arcia was 21 years when he debuted in 2013. 

[LaBombo]

 

A broken down Willingham had a better woba than Arcia in 2013 and 2014 As did many other players.  WRC, behind essentially the same group, as well as many other measures. About the only thing that  Arcia shined in is ISO. Of course, if you do not have a great ability to hit anything besides a HR, you will have a great ISO, and a lousy babip. Blaming a low babib for Arcia's woes is like blaming Worley's demise on his bad luck with a high babip

With the exception of the .229 AAA season in question, Oswaldo Arcia has not posted a BABIP under .300 at any level since his .279 debut in rookie ball.

 

And yes, Arcia wasn't very good at getting on base in his age 21 and 22 seasons, when most good prospects are getting their first taste of AA or even high A. But it's better to bank on plate discipline developing in the mid-20's than contact or power.

 

Also, you do realize that Worley's been pitching at least somewhat effectively since his BABIP went down a hundred points after leaving the Twins, right?

[Craig Arko]

Wow.  20 pages.

Long, hot, boring Summer.

[tobi0040]

Well, we have the second or third worse defensive team in baseball and that was with Arcia not seeing too much time out there.  Defense seems to be an afterthought when putting this team together.

The obvious move was to platoon Park and Arcia at DH. That combo would have scored more runs and kept Arcia out of the OF. We could have paid about $5M for .800 or so OPS out of the DH position.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The obvious move was to platoon Park and Arcia at DH. That combo would have scored more runs and kept Arcia out of the OF. We could have paid about $5M for .800 or so OPS out of the DH position.

That's a decent idea in theory but Arcia has been horrible against RHP this season (.669).

 

Yes, SSS... But we can't bank on Arcia being the righty masher he was early in his career.

 

Of all the strange things to happen in baseball, the fact that Arcia's bad-but-not-horrible 2016 OPS has been buoyed by his stats against LHP (.795) ranks up there.

 

I wanted to see the Twins keep Arcia because throwing away struggling talent when you're a bad baseball team is never a good idea... But, on the other hand, it's a mistake to think Arcia is guaranteed any kind of success in this league, either.

[Willihammer]

It also remains to be seen what the return is, no? Sometimes those PTBNL are decent. Eg. David Arias.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not trying to rail on Arcia because he has real talent. He also has some real flaws and we need to reel it in when talking about expectations of him as a player.

 

For example, here are some telling stats about 2016. First slash is Byron Buxton, the second is Arcia.

 

Swing % Outside Strike Zone: 36.2 / 35.9

 

Swing % All Pitches: 47.0 / 49.5

 

Contact % Strike Zone: 82.0 / 73.8

 

Contact % All Pitches: 67.0 / 64.5

 

We gnash our teeth over Buxton on a near-daily basis. Byron Buxton has 300 career MLB plate appearances and is 22 years old. Oswaldo Arcia has 1000 MLB plate appearances and is 25 years old.

 

Letting go of Arcia was, in my opinion, stupid... But let's keep his recent performances in mind. He's an incredibly flawed hitter (with NO defensive value) who hasn't shown any kind of ability to learn from past mistakes and has actually regressed as he ages toward his prime.

 

Sure, he can still turn into a useful player but he's a wild card, nothing more. He's a wild card the Twins should have kept because the Twins are an awful baseball team but that's another argument, really.

[Mike Sixel]

Yay, we got to 21 pages! wow.......

[Otto von Ballpark]

It also remains to be seen what the return is, no? Sometimes those PTBNL are decent. Eg. David Arias.

Probably not a decent PTBNL in a DFA deal, particularly one that specifies "or cash considerations."

[Otto von Ballpark]

The thread is two weeks old, and in the middle of baseball season, I'm not sure that reaching 20-21 pages at this point is particularly noteworthy, or any kind of sign of misplaced concern/outrage. Arcia had been in the org for 9 years, I would expect some kind of concern when he left.

[ashbury]

Probably not a decent PTBNL in a DFA deal, particularly one that specifies "or cash considerations."

We never did find out what we got for Kevin Correia, did we? B-r.com still shows:

 

August 9, 2014: Traded by the Minnesota Twins to the Los Angeles Dodgers for player to be named or cash.

[Otto von Ballpark]

We never did find out what we got for Kevin Correia, did we? B-r.com still shows:

 

August 9, 2014: Traded by the Minnesota Twins to the Los Angeles Dodgers for player to be named or cash.

I think that happens a lot, when it turns out to be a nominal amount of cash, no one bothers to follow up. Same for Neal Cotts too, I think.

[HitInAPinch]

 

We never did find out what we got for Kevin Correia, did we? B-r.com still shows:

 

August 9, 2014: Traded by the Minnesota Twins to the Los Angeles Dodgers for player to be named or cash.

Twins took the cash.  $250k if I remember correctly.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The thread is two weeks old, and in the middle of baseball season, I'm not sure that reaching 20-21 pages at this point is particularly noteworthy, or any kind of sign of misplaced concern/outrage. Arcia had been in the org for 9 years, I would expect some kind of concern when he left.

 

I'm not critical of the page count, I'm fascinated by it. 

[tobi0040]

That's a decent idea in theory but Arcia has been horrible against RHP this season (.669).

 

Yes, SSS... But we can't bank on Arcia being the righty masher he was early in his career.

 

Of all the strange things to happen in baseball, the fact that Arcia's bad-but-not-horrible 2016 OPS has been buoyed by his stats against LHP (.795) ranks up there.

 

I wanted to see the Twins keep Arcia because throwing away struggling talent when you're a bad baseball team is never a good idea... But, on the other hand, it's a mistake to think Arcia is guaranteed any kind of success in this league, either.

His career OPS against righties is .782. And in those 111 AB's this year against righties he has 5 HR. If you take that 5% HR rate and Park's 4% HR rate against lefties and you have a 33 HR pace out of the DH position (assuming 4.5 AB per game over 162 games).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

His career OPS against righties is .782. And in those 111 AB's this year against righties he has 5 HR. If you take that 5% HR rate and Park's 4% HR rate against lefties and you have a 33 HR pace out of the DH position (assuming 4.5 AB per game over 162 games).

Sure, his career numbers are certainly better but given Arcia's weird (lack of) development, I'm not sure we can rely on anything he has done in the past. It's almost a given he'll end up hitting righties better than lefties but I'm unconvinced he'll hit anyone adequately at this point.

 

I mean, he got fired up and went on a 3-4 game tear for the Rays but then next thing we know, he's breaking bats and losing his **** again... And his production reverted back to nothing.

 

Not that I'm putting too much stock in a handful of PA appearances with the Rays but that's a cycle we've seen Oswaldo go through quite a few times. He gets hot, stumbles a bit, and then gets so visibly frustrated that he starts throwing things.

 

Rinse, repeat.

[Linus]

I would have sent park down and let Arcia have a months worth of at bats. Having said that my guess is that he would be dfa anyway. I think Vargas has a better chance of being a successful dh and under no circumstances would I consider Arcia a regular outfielder.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I would have sent park down and let Arcia have a months worth of at bats. Having said that my guess is that he would be dfa anyway. I think Vargas has a better chance of being a successful dh and under no circumstances would I consider Arcia a regular outfielder.

I suspect that was the Twins' thinking.

 

I still think they could have held on to Arcia for another month to see what happens but they needed to make a decision about Arcia vs. Vargas relatively soon either way.

[tobi0040]

I suspect that was the Twins' thinking.

 

I still think they could have held on to Arcia for another month to see what happens but they needed to make a decision about Arcia vs. Vargas relatively soon either way.

The big difference is giving him another month would have at least been a thoughtful approach. Had we given him a month and then DFA'd him, I don't think the outrage would have been nearly as severe. At this point I am more concerned with the process than results.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The big difference is giving him another month would have at least been a thoughtful approach. Had we given him a month and then DFA'd him, I don't think the outrage would have been nearly as severe. At this point I am more concerned with the process than results.

Bingo.

 

I'm not terribly upset about losing Arcia because it's likely Vargas, and possibly Park, are the same players.

 

But the thinking behind the decision really bothers me. If you're going to demote Park, why not give Arcia a month? If he fails, DFA him on August 1st and give Vargas two months to show his stuff.

[alarp33]

 

I'm not trying to rail on Arcia because he has real talent. He also has some real flaws and we need to reel it in when talking about expectations of him as a player.

 

 

 

I know its a lot of pages to read through, but I think there is universal agreement on this.  No one is arguing he is a perfect player, or a lock to have a successful big league career.  The argument is pretty much solely focused on roster management, playing time, opportunity, etc.  

[Craig Arko]

 

I know its a lot of pages to read through, but I think there is universal agreement on this.  No one is arguing he is a perfect player, or a lock to have a successful big league career.  The argument is pretty much solely focused on roster management, playing time, opportunity, etc.  

Assume universal agreement on nothing.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Assume universal agreement on nothing.

 

can we all agree that there is nothing we all agree on? (trick question......

[Craig Arko]

 

can we all agree that there is nothing we all agree on? (trick question......

Let me drink about that a while.

[Major League Ready]

 

His career OPS against righties is .782. And in those 111 AB's this year against righties he has 5 HR. If you take that 5% HR rate and Park's 4% HR rate against lefties and you have a 33 HR pace out of the DH position (assuming 4.5 AB per game over 162 games).

That would be pretty hard to work with.  You would have Arcia/Park, a BU Catcher and one other bench player to cover BU for the rest of the position players.   I think the the roster construction criticism has been justified and this platoon would ensure we continued bad roster management practices.  It would also be the end of Robie Grossman.  He is not an all-star but he is not a liability in the OF, at least not to Arcia's degree, and he does not give away AB like Arcia does.  Of course, they could try to get by with one less BP arm but the starters are going to have to be more reliable for that to be feasible.

[ashbury]

I think that happens a lot, when it turns out to be a nominal amount of cash, no one bothers to follow up. Same for Neal Cotts too, I think.

What happens a lot, I think, is players being sold for a nominal amount of cash, with a fig leaf of a PTBNL as an alternative.