Will Brian Dozier's contract turn into an asset?

[wsnydes]

 

I'm not in favor of having a whole team about the same age or experience. All the players would expensive at the same time and I do believe a mix of veterans and young players is better on the field as well.

Fair point, but you can then trade pieces that you don't believe you can keep around for other pieces that you can keep around.  That's how this team needs to replenish it's talent pool.  It sucks, but they simply can't keep up with the Jones' in the baseball economy.

[Steve Penz]

I don't feel Polanco gets enough press.  I am excited to have him F/T "at the major league level" and therefore I feel that should do whatever is necessary to move Dozier.  He (Dozier) has been very streaky and a nice player but I think we have seen the ceiling.  Polanco would be no step-down, is still getting better and he is out of options after this year.  Get Dozier out and get Polanco up for as much of 2016 as is possible.  Its all about prepping for next year at this point.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Dozier can only increase his trade value if he goes on a hot streak. But if you look at him, unless you are really killing to get a second baseman, he will be an expensive option come 2018. But if you trade for him in 2016...you can still carry him into next season and hope he is worthwhile in the long run, or maybe even flip him again. That's baseball. You jsut need to find someone willing to take on the salary against salary of other similar options.

Not really, though. $9m for one season is affordable to all but the smallest market teams.

 

The median payroll in 2016 is about $113m and will be slightly higher in 2018.

 

$9m is under 8% of 2016's median payroll number.

[diehardtwinsfan]

So... here's the question.

 

Dozier is under contract for 2 or 3 more years.  Will the Twins be competitive during that time frame?  Can Polanco replicate his numbers or at the very least be an above average 2B?

 

Too me at least, those are the questions I ask before putting him on the block.  If the answer to the first one is no, then he's traded.  The second is a bit more complicated. If it's close or better, I probably trade BD... but that requires talent evaluation, not just being honest about the situation this team is in, not to mention risk.  Not necessarily against trading him, as I think long term Polanco is good enough. 

[alarp33]

I haven't read through all the comments, but I think the 2018 year hurts the trade value.  Not because $9 million is way too high, but I'm not sure any contender has such a need at 2B that they would want to lock in to Brian Dozier through the next 2.5 years.  I think he would have more value without that extension, or if it only had the guaranteed 2017 money.  

[stringer bell]

What Polanco brings to the table is probably what the Twins need--on base ability with enough extra-base sock, plus he's a switch-hitter, a definite plus. He hasn't been a very good defender, but has played a lot of shortstop until this year. Dozier converted to second base a bit later, but has been a decent defender there. Polanco would profile to have as much range and his hands haven't been the problem at short,

 

The bugaboo here is that there are so few sure things on the Twins, why add a guy you aren't sure of, when it can be reasonably assumed that Dozier will provide double-digit homers (probably closer to 20) and an OPS north of .725. Finally, there is durability. Dozier hasn't been disabled in his Twins career, spanning more than four years. Other guys with far less big league time have been injured or disabled twice (Santana, Nuñez, Arcia, Sano). I believe Plouffe has hit the DL every season, perhaps not going on the year he broke a bone in the last couple of weeks in the season.

 

There's a lot to like with Polanco. However, I think we've underappreciated Dozier some this year.

[markos]

I think Dozier's contract is an asset but just not very valuable. It is an asset because I think he will be underpaid relative to his performance - if he was a free agent, he would make way more than 2y/$15M. But at the same time, there isn't any obvious buyers right now for a league-average second-baseman. Almost every contender has an entrenched player that is as good or better than Dozier. And looking forward, I think the Mets are the only team losing their starter (Neil Walker) this offseason. So supply/demand forces are not in the Twins favor at all. His situation is very similar to the Plouffe situation last offseason.

[jimmer]

Mets have the money to re-sign Walker if they want.  And they have some interesting minor leaguers who could be knocking on the door as well.

[markos]

 

So... here's the question.

 

Dozier is under contract for 2 or 3 more years.  Will the Twins be competitive during that time frame?  Can Polanco replicate his numbers or at the very least be an above average 2B?

 

Too me at least, those are the questions I ask before putting him on the block.  If the answer to the first one is no, then he's traded.  The second is a bit more complicated. If it's close or better, I probably trade BD... but that requires talent evaluation, not just being honest about the situation this team is in, not to mention risk.  Not necessarily against trading him, as I think long term Polanco is good enough. 

Assuming that you put Dozier on the block, what is the minimum level of return to actually move him? Or does that not really factor into the calculations? 

[Steve Penz]

So... here's the question.

 

Dozier is under contract for 2 or 3 more years. Will the Twins be competitive during that time frame? Can Polanco replicate his numbers or at the very least be an above average 2B?

 

Too me at least, those are the questions I ask before putting him on the block. If the answer to the first one is no, then he's traded. The second is a bit more complicated. If it's close or better, I probably trade BD... but that requires talent evaluation, not just being honest about the situation this team is in, not to mention risk. Not necessarily against trading him, as I think long term Polanco is good enough.

This is well said. Additionally, Doziers inconsistent hitting is an issue. Until recently, he was hitting very poorly and that extended back to mid last season. He was barely north of .200 to start this year.

[Pardon My Dinger]

I am confidently predicting that Polanco is the one that gets traded in favor of Dozier.

[nicksaviking]

 

I'm not in favor of having a whole team about the same age or experience. All the players would expensive at the same time and I do believe a mix of veterans and young players is better on the field as well.

 

I can buy into that, but I'd fill the holes with veterans, not the other way around. I'd let the young guys play out the year and target what you need in free agency. 2B doesn't look like it should be a hole to me, there seem to be quite a few options.

[jimmer]

 

I'm not in favor of having a whole team about the same age or experience. All the players would expensive at the same time and I do believe a mix of veterans and young players is better on the field as well.

Having enough good players that would actually be worth a high salary would be a good problem to have.  I wouldn't assume that'd be the case, though.  Right now, doesn't seem like we'll be close to having that problem

[Loosey]

 

What Polanco brings to the table is probably what the Twins need--on base ability with enough extra-base sock, plus he's a switch-hitter, a definite plus. He hasn't been a very good defender, but has played a lot of shortstop until this year. Dozier converted to second base a bit later, but has been a decent defender there. Polanco would profile to have as much range and his hands haven't been the problem at short,

 

The bugaboo here is that there are so few sure things on the Twins, why add a guy you aren't sure of, when it can be reasonably assumed that Dozier will provide double-digit homers (probably closer to 20) and an OPS north of .725. Finally, there is durability. Dozier hasn't been disabled in his Twins career, spanning more than four years. Other guys with far less big league time have been injured or disabled twice (Santana, Nuñez, Arcia, Sano). I believe Plouffe has hit the DL every season, perhaps not going on the year he broke a bone in the last couple of weeks in the season.

 

There's a lot to like with Polanco. However, I think we've underappreciated Dozier some this year.

You should send this to the Twins to use as their Dozier sale's pitch.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Assuming that you put Dozier on the block, what is the minimum level of return to actually move him? Or does that not really factor into the calculations? 

 

If the answer to my first question (will we be competitive in 2 1/2 years) is no, then I'm moving him.  All I want to do is maximize the value at that point.  If the answer is yes, it's a bit of a different story, and I'd be a bit more of a stickler to what I want out of him.

 

That said, at a .725 OPS with good defense, BD is already an above average 2B. He's shown the ability for extended periods of time to hit well above .800 in the OPS scale, which is a really really really good 2B. 

 

I'd say that I'd want a top 100 prospect and one or two more lottery tickets for BD.  That's what I want to get, but I'd sell much lower if I don't think Dozier is part of the team's resurgance

[wsnydes]

 

I am confidently predicting that Polanco is the one that gets traded in favor of Dozier.

I hope that you're wronger than wrong, but fear that you may be right.

[Vanimal46]

If the answer to my first question (will we be competitive in 2 1/2 years) is no, then I'm moving him.  All I want to do is maximize the value at that point.  If the answer is yes, it's a bit of a different story, and I'd be a bit more of a stickler to what I want out of him.

 

That said, at a .725 OPS with good defense, BD is already an above average 2B. He's shown the ability for extended periods of time to hit well above .800 in the OPS scale, which is a really really really good 2B. 

 

I'd say that I'd want a top 100 prospect and one or two more lottery tickets for BD.  That's what I want to get, but I'd sell much lower if I don't think Dozier is part of the team's resurgance

That seems like a reasonable return for Dozier. I would hope that top 100 prospect is a SP or a C who can make their MLB debut next season.

[ashbury]

That seems like a reasonable return for Dozier. I would hope that top 100 prospect is a SP or a C who can make their MLB debut next season.

We don't have a top-100 catcher, but do have a couple of pitchers. So let's play the reverse game - if Dozier and Polanco got hit by twin meteorites, would you trade Tyler Jay to acquire Jason Kipnis from the Indians (plus a lot of money from the Indians to equalize the contracts)? If Kipnis's contract were the same as Dozier's, would it make it more palatable to give up Jay?

 

It's hard to find an exact equivalent to players, but that's one comp to try throwing out there for discussion purposes. I wouldn't much like that trade. So then I wouldn't expect to get that much for Dozier, either.

 

Dozier plus some mid-range prospect, for a top-100 prospect, might be closer to an enticement.

[Mike Sixel]

 

We don't have a top-100 catcher, but do have a couple of pitchers. So let's play the reverse game - if Dozier and Polanco got hit by twin meteorites, would you trade Tyler Jay to acquire Jason Kipnis from the Indians (plus a lot of money from the Indians to equalize the contracts)? If Kipnis's contract were the same as Dozier's, would it make it more palatable to give up Jay?

 

It's hard to find an exact equivalent to players, but that's one comp to try throwing out there for discussion purposes. I wouldn't much like that trade. So then I wouldn't expect to get that much for Dozier, either.

 

Dozier plus some mid-range prospect, for a top-100 prospect, might be closer to an enticement.

 

you mean if the Twins were winning the division, and I felt it was real? yes, probably I'd deal for a real MLB starter......no idea if that is the exact player or not, but I would not punt a position in a year I was a legit contender. 

[Vanimal46]

We don't have a top-100 catcher, but do have a couple of pitchers. So let's play the reverse game - if Dozier and Polanco got hit by twin meteorites, would you trade Tyler Jay to acquire Jason Kipnis from the Indians (plus a lot of money from the Indians to equalize the contracts)? If Kipnis's contract were the same as Dozier's, would it make it more palatable to give up Jay?

 

It's hard to find an exact equivalent to players, but that's one comp to try throwing out there for discussion purposes. I wouldn't much like that trade. So then I wouldn't expect to get that much for Dozier, either.

 

Dozier plus some mid-range prospect, for a top-100 prospect, might be closer to an enticement.

In this hypothetical are the Twins in 1st place and playing the equivalent of Danny Santana at 2B? I probably would. As was proven with Alex Meyer, another top 100 prospect I believe when the Twins acquired him, a lot can happen between A ball and his anticipated arrival to the MLB.

[ashbury]

In this hypothetical are the Twins in 1st place and playing the equivalent of Danny Santana at 2B? I probably would. As was proven with Alex Meyer, another top 100 prospect I believe when the Twins acquired him, a lot can happen between A ball and his anticipated arrival to the MLB.

I'd be delighted if we can get somebody's Tyler Jay.

[Vanimal46]

I'd be delighted if we can get somebody's Tyler Jay.

So would I for Brian Dozier.

[markos]

 

If the answer to my first question (will we be competitive in 2 1/2 years) is no, then I'm moving him.  All I want to do is maximize the value at that point.  If the answer is yes, it's a bit of a different story, and I'd be a bit more of a stickler to what I want out of him.

 

That said, at a .725 OPS with good defense, BD is already an above average 2B. He's shown the ability for extended periods of time to hit well above .800 in the OPS scale, which is a really really really good 2B. 

 

I'd say that I'd want a top 100 prospect and one or two more lottery tickets for BD.  That's what I want to get, but I'd sell much lower if I don't think Dozier is part of the team's resurgance

For the record, I would definitely trade Dozier for a top-100 plus a lottery ticket and just roll with Polanco going forward. I just can't see what team would be interesting in dealing for Dozier right now, particularly at that price. Maybe if one of the rebuilding teams decides to "go for it" next season -  think Atlanta or Philly - would a team pay that kind of price for Dozier. Otherwise I think 2B is going to be set for the vast majority of contenders next year.

 

I fairly skeptical that the Twins will be competitive in the next two seasons, but I don't think it is the time to move Dozier at any cost. If he is only going to get a AAA bullpen arm (think Jim Hoey), then I would hang on and hope that he will be more valuable in a different market in the next two seasons. It makes it hard to give Polanco an everyday job, but he should be able to step into the Nunez roll after July 31 and for 2017 if needed.

[wsnydes]

 

For the record, I would definitely trade Dozier for a top-100 plus a lottery ticket and just roll with Polanco going forward. I just can't see what team would be interesting in dealing for Dozier right now, particularly at that price. Maybe if one of the rebuilding teams decides to "go for it" next season -  think Atlanta or Philly - would a team pay that kind of price for Dozier. Otherwise I think 2B is going to be set for the vast majority of contenders next year.

 

I fairly skeptical that the Twins will be competitive in the next two seasons, but I don't think it is the time to move Dozier at any cost. If he is only going to get a AAA bullpen arm (think Jim Hoey), then I would hang on and hope that he will be more valuable in a different market in the next two seasons. It makes it hard to give Polanco an everyday job, but he should be able to step into the Nunez roll after July 31 and for 2017 if needed.

I'd argue that Nunez should be dealt too.  He's a perfect sell high candidate.  Like Dozier, I wouldn't sell him for a bag of balls, but as long as an offer wasn't unreasonably low I'd probably pull the trigger.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

That seems like a reasonable return for Dozier. I would hope that top 100 prospect is a SP or a C who can make their MLB debut next season.

 

Terry Ryan mentioned a few years ago that top shelf SP once it his AA is pretty much unattainable.  I think that is probably a high return to ask.  Same with C.  You're going to sacrifice on upside if that's what you want.  I'm not against that, but the return might not be quite as much as people want.  If you want upside, you take on more risk (think Alex Meyer for Denard Span type of risk).  The player won't be close.  I'm not against that, but if this team is honestly assessing that they won't be in it for 2 1/2 years, then I take the upside, even if it is a few years away. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'd argue that Nunez should be dealt too.  He's a perfect sell high candidate.  Like Dozier, I wouldn't sell him for a bag of balls, but as long as an offer wasn't unreasonably low I'd probably pull the trigger.  

 

I think we all agree there.  The problem with Nunez is that he's not suddenly worth a lot.  You might get another Miguel Sulbaran type player for him.  We most certainly won't walk away with a top 100 prospect or even a top 150 prospect.

[wsnydes]

 

I think we all agree there.  The problem with Nunez is that he's not suddenly worth a lot.  You might get another Miguel Sulbaran type player for him.  We most certainly won't walk away with a top 100 prospect or even a top 150 prospect.

Probably, the right situation might bring more but I'm not having illusions of anything great.  I'm fine with that.  I'm in unload the veterans mode.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'd say that I'd want a top 100 prospect and one or two more lottery tickets for BD.

Seems a bit high, considering what we got for Span who had less guaranteed cash and more team control,  and arguably better recent performance than Dozier considering defense.

[Steve Penz]

Seems a bit high, considering what we got for Span who had less guaranteed cash and more team control, and arguably better recent performance than Dozier considering defense.

Totally agree here. Dozier is a nice guy and he dazzled us with power numbers for two half seasons but there is no way we get a top 100 prospect for him and especially not a pitcher or catcher. Mlb did not have him as a top 10 at 2B after last year. I think people are seriously over-valuing him. I think we get what we can for him and move on.

[Brandon]

If your looking for someone to trade.... Nolasco has averaged 6 innings per start and has decent starts around a few clunkers.  If he can go on a run he may have value now that he is showing he is healthy and can provide innings.

 

I think Dozier is fine here.  I do think Polanco is more the hitter we should be targeting for 2nd base but I think keeping Dozier is not the end of the world either.