Unanswered questions, tough decisions loom for Twins

[The Wise One]

 

I don't think Arcia and Molitor are a good match. Arcia shows a lot of emotion and passion. Molitor stays even and probably gives more respect to players that can do the same. It is possible that the return of Sano and Santana will lead to the DFA of Arcia. The Twins will be gambling that Grossman's future will be better than Arcia's. They can not afford to lose on this bet.

Kepler, Rosario, Arcia  Buxton and Sano, if two of them work out then they need two of Santana, AB Walker, Grossman ,  DJ Hicks, Harrison or Granite to work out. Lots of inside straights to draw to not an either/ or

[The Wise One]

 

im with you on Milone. Something tells me TR/PM gave him a choice of starting in Triple A or long man in the bigs and he chose triple A.

He can try to build his value by being a dominating  AAA pitcher VS BP (long relief)

[Richie the Rally Goat]

He can try to build his value by being a dominating AAA pitcher VS BP (long relief)

right, logically starters make more than relievers, and he has previous big league success as a starter. Just don't have proof of assumption that Milone had a say in the outcome.

[Platoon]

I don't think Arcia and Molitor are a good match. Arcia shows a lot of emotion and passion. Molitor stays even and probably gives more respect to players that can do the same. It is possible that the return of Sano and Santana will lead to the DFA of Arcia. The Twins will be gambling that Grossman's future will be better than Arcia's. They can not afford to lose on this bet.

Agreed, but first you have to determine what you are looking for. A fourth OF, it would be Grossman. A platoon LH power bat, Arcia. But there is no evidence of Molitor defining rolls. Just look at how he handles the BP.

[Platoon]

IMHO this years (not to be confused with other years) debacle started with the Park signing. Park himself is not the issue, but the idea that you could construct a team built on the premise of having Park, Sano, Plouffe, and Mauer clogging up the roster, with this pitching staff is preposterous. Follow that by painting yourself in a corner announcing the Sano Experiment, and proclaiming to all the Plouffe is untouchable, and there is no way you can win. I can understand keeping all the pieces until ST, and then dealing with the construct. But they didn't. To me that set a tone. I know this sounds simplistic, but it made the entire field roster unmanageable. You can put three all star centers on an NBA team, but that doesn't mean you will win. And the players involved in this for the Twins are far from AS.

[nytwinsfan]

This was a really well-written and thoughtful article, especially on the hitting side.

[lukeduke1980]

 

Lots of talk about trades that need to be made.

 

I don't like being this harsh but I honestly don't trust the room of people in charge of making these trades. 

 

The majority of MLB GMs aren't dummies, they know the position TR is in and the 'caliber' of 'talent' he has available.  TR probably can't win - he won't get anything in return for whomever he moves, which only further exposes his initial mistakes.  

 

I think he'll be at a personal stalemate the whole trading season, but it would be nice if some players could actually display some value.  Begin by selling high on the 2 guys you know are overachieving.

[Kwak]

 

IMHO this years (not to be confused with other years) debacle started with the Park signing. Park himself is not the issue, but the idea that you could construct a team built on the premise of having Park, Sano, Plouffe, and Mauer clogging up the roster, with this pitching staff is preposterous. Follow that by painting yourself in a corner announcing the Sano Experiment, and proclaiming to all the Plouffe is untouchable, and there is no way you can win. I can understand keeping all the pieces until ST, and then dealing with the construct. But they didn't. To me that set a tone. I know this sounds simplistic, but it made the entire field roster unmanageable. You can put three all star centers on an NBA team, but that doesn't mean you will win. And the players involved in this for the Twins are far from AS.

​No.

 

This year's debacle began with the assumption that the Twins "turned the corner" from a 90-loss team and now are a 90-win team. If the front office convinced the owner that 2015 was simply an aberration based on luck, few injuries, timely addition of newly promoted rookies that had unexpected success they would have slashed payroll by "moving" higher salary veterans like Plouffe. Hence the comment "...total system failure". We wait for Twins management to act on the 2016 season.

[DJSim22]

See what you have with the players who have earned it.  The notion of giving Reed or Burdi a free pass to the big leagues is a huge mistake imo.  I absolutely agree with playing Polanco, Buxton, and Kepler.  I guess you can play Arcia, but I'm not a fan.  One trick pony who isn't doing the one thing he supposedly does well. 

[The Wise One]

 

right, logically starters make more than relievers, and he has previous big league success as a starter. Just don't have proof of assumption that Milone had a say in the outcome.

I did not say that Millone  had a choice. As a trade chip the Twins are likely to get more for a AAAA starter than a mop up pitcher. How much more depends on the other team. Back of the rotation but usually kept his team in the game. If a team needs a pitcher and thinks they can fix what was going wrong for Millone  then a deal will get made for some low a prospect with a glimmer of hope rather than a 24 year old  low a player.  Does that clarify it well enough for you?

[The Wise One]

 

​No.

 

This year's debacle began with the assumption that the Twins "turned the corner" from a 90-loss team and now are a 90-win team. If the front office convinced the owner that 2015 was simply an aberration based on luck, few injuries, timely addition of newly promoted rookies that had unexpected success they would have slashed payroll by "moving" higher salary veterans like Plouffe. Hence the comment "...total system failure". We wait for Twins management to act on the 2016 season.

I don't think anyone would have thought that this would be a 90 win team. The thought was they would be a competitive team and with a return of form of the free agent pitchers have a good potential for 90 wins. 

[Mr. Brooks]

I did not say that Millone had a choice. As a trade chip the Twins are likely to get more for a AAAA starter than a mop up pitcher. How much more depends on the other team. Back of the rotation but usually kept his team in the game. If a team needs a pitcher and thinks they can fix what was going wrong for Millone then a deal will get made for some low a prospect with a glimmer of hope rather than a 24 year old low a player. Does that clarify it well enough for you?

Milone went through waivers and wasn't claimed.

Why would a team give up a prospect for him, when they could have had him for free a few weeks ago?

[The Wise One]

 

Milone went through waivers and wasn't claimed.
Why would a team give up a prospect for him, when they could have had him for free a few weeks ago?

Late July, August anything can happen. Hell, a team gave up Jake Arrietta for Scott Feldman. The Dodgers gave up a prospect for Drew Butera.  Willingham was pretty broken down and netted was once the number 9 prospect in the Royals system.   The Bucs got Morse for a player that had been DFA a few times. So, until there is proof that GMs do not do stupid things  near the deadline, Millone has potential for value.   Potential.

[diehardtwinsfan]

If Milone continues to do well in AAA, TR might be able to sell the idea that he's righted the ship.  I wouldn't expect much more than a Sam Fuld type for him though... and I'm really not holding my breath there either.  I suspect that July 31 passes and Milone is still a Redwing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Late July, August anything can happen. Hell, a team gave up Jake Arrietta for Scott Feldman. The Dodgers gave up a prospect for Drew Butera.  Willingham was pretty broken down and netted was once the number 9 prospect in the Royals system.   The Bucs got Morse for a player that had been DFA a few times. So, until there is proof that GMs do not do stupid things  near the deadline, Millone has potential for value.   Potential.

Feldman was currently starting in MLB with a 112 ERA+ when he was traded, higher than Milone's career high.  He was not subject to waivers before his trade.

 

Butera's career earnings to date are still less than Milone's 2016 salary.  Butera was not subject to waivers before his trade.

 

Willingham was subject to waivers, and was claimed, unlike Milone.

 

 

Morse was not subject to waivers before his trade, although it didn't much matter -- the Dodgers had to eat about $5 million to swap him for Tabata.

 

I am pretty sure if the Twins want to get out of Milone's remaining salary, much less get any player back, he will probably have to come back to MLB first.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Milone was traded from the minor leagues back in 2014.  Of course, he had a 105 ERA+ in 16 starts in MLB that year before getting optioned by the team with the best record in MLB at the time, and he was also making the league minimum salary.  And he still only brought back Sam Fuld.

 

Two years later, Milone is making $4.5 million, and already cleared waivers to be demoted to minors for performance reasons (74 ERA+) by the team with the worst record in baseball.

 

I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that he's not going to fetch more in trade than 2014 (i.e. somebody eating his salary) by continuing to pitch at Rochester.

[operation mindcrime]

I'm not sure if my response to seeing the words "Nunez," and "future," together in the same article was fear or anger. Hopefully this organization can sell high for once and cash in. I'll be annoyed if he is on the roster after the trade deadline (assuming he keeps playing playing well and has actual value). I'm actually worried the Twins would try to extend him. That would be the most "Twins," move the team could make; extend a guy during a career stretch only to have him turn back into the pumpkin that he is....

Spot on!

[The Wise One]

 

Feldman was currently starting in MLB with a 112 ERA+ when he was traded, higher than Milone's career high.  He was not subject to waivers before his trade.

 

Butera's career earnings to date are still less than Milone's 2016 salary.  Butera was not subject to waivers before his trade.

 

Willingham was subject to waivers, and was claimed, unlike Milone.

 

 

Morse was not subject to waivers before his trade, although it didn't much matter -- the Dodgers had to eat about $5 million to swap him for Tabata.

 

I am pretty sure if the Twins want to get out of Milone's remaining salary, much less get any player back, he will probably have to come back to MLB first.

David Dejusus was making 5 million. Still fetched a flier.

[Otto von Ballpark]

David Dejusus was making 5 million. Still fetched a flier.

Dejesus last year wasn't in the minor leagues, wasn't subject to waivers, and was performing at a roughly league average clip (94 OPS+).

 

We all know that players can be traded. The question is, how many players are tradeable in Milone's present circumstances?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I want to see Nick Gordon in September.  

Absolutely not. No way, no how.

 

Gordon is 20 years old and having his first above average season in high A ball. He has no business being within a thousand miles of a MLB lineup in 2016.

[wsnydes]

 

I'm not sure if my response to seeing the words "Nunez," and "future," together in the same article was fear or anger. Hopefully this organization can sell high for once and cash in. I'll be annoyed if he is on the roster after the trade deadline (assuming he keeps playing playing well and has actual value). I'm actually worried the Twins would try to extend him. That would be the most "Twins," move the team could make; extend a guy during a career stretch only to have him turn back into the pumpkin that he is....

You took the words right out of my mouth.  I've come full circle on Nunez.  For the past couple of years I've been clamoring for his removal from the roster because of a variety of reasons.  Now, I find myself clamoring for his removal from the roster because he's one of the few valuable trade chips this team has.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Dejesus last year wasn't in the minor leagues, wasn't subject to waivers, and was performing at a roughly league average clip (94 OPS+).

We all know that players can be traded. The question is, how many players are tradeable in Milone's present circumstances?

 

I don't see it personally.  I won't hold it against TR if he cannot find a suitor for Milone.  He couldn't give him away for free just a few weeks ago, and even if Tommy continues to be lights out in AAA, I don't see much changing there.

 

I do hold it against him for not moving Milone this offseason.  While I don't think he'd have gotten a stellar return, I have to believe that some pitching needed team would have coughed up a quasi-decent reliever or a C+ prospect for him.

[The Wise One]

 

Dejesus last year wasn't in the minor leagues, wasn't subject to waivers, and was performing at a roughly league average clip (94 OPS+).

We all know that players can be traded. The question is, how many players are tradeable in Milone's present circumstances?

Chacin,  Brendan Ryan. There iare the first two off the trade tracker that were in the minors, have mlb experience and brought something in trade.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Chacin,  Brendan Ryan. There iare the first two off the trade tracker that were in the minors, have mlb experience and brought something in trade.

While Chacin did a stint in the minors last year after being released by Colorado, he was not traded from the minor leagues this year.  And his salary this season is only $1.1 mil.

 

Brendan Ryan was indeed in the minor leagues when he was traded last month, but of course he was on a minor league contract and minimum salary.  And he was traded for "cash considerations or a player to be named later" which if history is any guide, likely means a nominal amount of cash, comparable to the waiver fee.

 

Again, neither example is particularly comparable to Tommy Milone, who is still owed something like $3 mil.  Nobody is taking on his salary in trade right now, probably not until he returns to MLB and starts performing (or a team is desperate and his remaining salary is low in August, what I like to call the "Kevin Correia Theorem").  Indeed, the Angels passed on claiming Milone for the waiver fee (plus his salary, of course) when they opted to trade for Chacin and his salary instead.

[jorgenswest]

It is hard to imagine any expectation that the Twins could have received a return of a C prospect for Milone this winter.

 

I looked through all the trades last winter looking for returns in trade for starters similar to Milone. Of course, there aren't many trades for back end starters during the winter since teams can sign free agents and even find pitchers to take a minor league deal.

 

Charlie Morton was traded for David Whitehead. Whitehead is 24 and in AA. He currently has a career WHIP of 1.486 and K/9 of 5.7. The return was not near a C prospect.

 

Jesse Chavez was traded for Liam Hendriks. Chavez has shown the ability to pitch in relief. It seems unlikely the Blue Jays would have taken Milone over Chavez in a deal for Hendriks. Hendriks has returned to his previous form after last year's outlier season. The Blue Jays are using Chavez in the pen.

 

Jeremy Hellickson was traded for Sam McWilliams. McWilliams is 20 and after 2 seasons in the GCL he had posted a 4.8 K/9. He is not near the level of a C prospect. In any case, wouldn't the Phillies have chosen Hellickson's upside over Milone if given the choice?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah, the Twins were in a tricky spot with Milone.  Perhaps some team would have been willing to pick up his $4.5 mil tab in arbitration, but probably not at the cost of any prospect of note.  Similar situation to Plouffe, really.

 

At which point, the Twins might as well just non-tender him if their only benefit is saving the cash (at which point they could try re-signing the player for a lower salary as well, which might be more tradeable later).

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't know if it needed to be a prospect of note.  That's kind of what a C prospect is (using Sickle's scale here for the record). 

 

The money saved on Milone could have went towards a decent RP.  It certainly wouldn't have saved us this abomination of a season, but we might have a couple more Ws at this point.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't know if it needed to be a prospect of note.  That's kind of what a C prospect is (using Sickle's scale here for the record). 

 

The money saved on Milone could have went towards a decent RP.  It certainly wouldn't have saved us this abomination of a season, but we might have a couple more Ws at this point.

If you just want to save the money, you can non-tender him.  The non-prospect is practically a meaningless part of the equation (in fact, it is probably more than offset by the potential to negotiate a lower salary with Milone after non-tendering him, if you want to keep him around as an option or potential asset).

[Loosey]

 

If you dont get it, you haven't been following the Twins operation philosophy over the last twenty years. But I know you have, and I know you get it. So it was likely a rhetorical question.

[jorgenswest]

I enjoy Sickel's books every year. A deep organization might have 35 prospects C or better. The vast majority are below that level.

 

The real decision was to tender or not. Getting back a non prospect in trade is irrelevant. They could have saved 4.5 million. That isn't very much money on the market though Trevor Cahill, Jeremy Blevins and Joe Blanton were in that neighborhood and doing OK. I would not have advocated going after any of those three.

 

The problem isn't Milone. He is paid below the going rate of a number 5 starter. The commitment in his contract is one that is small enough so that if doesn't pitch well they don't keep throwing out there.

 

The problem is the commitments to three other back end starters that they can't easily let go. Since 2012, Milone has a better ERA+ than Nolasco, Santana and Hughes. They are all below average, Nolasco more below average than the other three. Their performance and decline was predictable. Milone is the only wise signing for the back of the rotation of the 4.