Could the Twins make a play for Julio Teheran?

[Vanimal46]

25 year old Julio Teheran was placed on the trade block by the Braves yesterday. Braves GM John Coppollella said to Ken Rosenthal the team will trade Teheran for "a hitter of comparable quality and age" and would need to be "overwhelmed" by a trade offer. He's enjoying a nice bounce back season with a 2.77 ERA, 8.17 K/9 and is signed under a team friendly deal until 2019 (3/25 left)

 

What would the Twins have to give up to get the ball rolling? If the Twins open negotiations with Rosario, is that enough to continue talking?

[jimmer]

 

25 year old Julio Teheran was placed on the trade block by the Braves yesterday. Braves GM John Coppollella said to Ken Rosenthal the team will trade Teheran for "a hitter of comparable quality and age" and would need to be "overwhelmed" by a trade offer. He's enjoying a nice bounce back season with a 2.77 ERA, 8.17 K/9 and is signed under a team friendly deal until 2019 (3/25 left)

What would the Twins have to give up to get the ball rolling? If the Twins open negotiations with Rosario, is that enough to continue talking?

I doubt offering Rosario would even start a conversation much less continue it. In any event, Ryan would never go after him. What it would cost, Ryan would never offer.

[jimbo92107]

How about Kennys Vargas, who we all know is the next Big Papi? If Vargas has to go somewhere, let it be in the National League, where we won't face him too often, but we get to see him hitting homers in the World Series for Atlanta for the next decade. 

 

Meanwhile, we'll see if we can salvage a reasonable career from Teheran. 

[Bark's Lounge]

I'm still a fan of Rosario. I like what I seen from him a lot last season. Saying that - The Braves are going to want a lot more than Rosario and Rosario would be a fill in if there was any trade. Maybe Kepler, but I would be very reticent about acquiring Teheran. He comes with a few question marks. I don't see a fit for the Twins.

[alarp33]

The Conversation would start and end with Sano or Buxton. I doubt even Kepler would get a deal done (and I hope the Twins wouldn't be interested in that one either)

[Mr. Brooks]

I would guess that Rosario is probably viewed around the league as a likely 4th outfielder.

I doubt the Braves or any other team would have much interested in him until he shows even an ounce of plate discipline.

[Mike Sixel]

Not interested. The Twins' minor league system is all about pitching now. They have no young hitter that is extra, imo. No way I trade for him.

[mazeville]

To be honest, I don't think the Twins have anybody that would fit the bill outside of Buxton or Sano. Maybe Kepler. But looking at the team's strikeout prone hitters, I'd definitely keep Kepler to balance that somewhat.

 

And I agree that the team has some pitching coming up through the minors. I wouldn't bother. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Not interested. The Twins' minor league system is all about pitching now. They have no young hitter that is extra, imo. No way I trade for him.

I agree that the team has put a big emphasis on pitching, but we may still be 2+ years away from the group of Gonsalves, Stewart, Jorge, etc. making their way to the MLB.. 

[Thrylos]

Strike one: Career 3.88 FIP / 3.94 xFIP / 3.86 SIERA in the NL 

Strike two: 2.5 miles down from peak FB velocity

Strike three:  A rebuilding team is not willing to build around him but wants to get rid of him

 

He's out.

 

(unless the Twins can trade Nolasco/Hughes and Plouffe/Dozier for him and move him on on a different trade)

[nicksaviking]

This is frustrating to me mostly because the Braves are terrible and in sell mode but actually have a decent young but experienced player who can bring back some future help.

 

Though if the Twins had a similar player, I also doubt they'd trade him. If Gibson rebounds this summer, it will be interesting to see if the Twins think about moving him, my guess is no.

[spinowner]

We need biggentleben to weigh in on this. I don't know Atlanta's roster well enough.

My assumption is that Atlanta wants to sell high on one of their best trading chips, knowing they are at least a couple years away from contention. I don't think the Twins are in their target market here. This trade would be made with a team possessing a stable major league lineup that can part with a good prospect.

[gunnarthor]

Assuming Atlanta knew that Sano and Buxton were off limits and they really wanted bats, I think it would have to start with Kepler.  Atlanta is collecting draft picks, too.  So, Kepler, #74 pick and Nick Gordon/Jorge Polanco (depending on how they view him) might be doable.  I'm not sure that's a trade the Twins would want.  fangraphs doesn't suggest quite the velocity drop that Thylos is suggesting but I don't think he's a #1 or anything.  (Of course, the Twins were interested in Johnny Cueto around the same age but couldn't get a deal together and Cueto turned into a legit front of the rotation starter).  

 

I think if the Twins wanted to put that package out there, they could get a better return.

[lukeduke1980]

Doubtful concept - we're all enjoying more minor league kool aid with Tyler Jay, Kohl Stewart, etc.  

 

2018.

[Thrylos]

 

  fangraphs doesn't suggest quite the velocity drop that Thylos is suggesting 

 

Actually my -2.5 is generous

 

Data here (fangraphs) 

 

Peak FB: (2011) 93.0

2016 FB: 90.1 

-2.9

 

Pitchf/x

Peak FA: (2011) 93.0  (had his 2-seamer at 93.6 ave in 2012, but with 1% of pitches...)
2016 FA: 90.4
-2.6

[Mike Sixel]

 

I agree that the team has put a big emphasis on pitching, but we may still be 2+ years away from the group of Gonsalves, Stewart, Jorge, etc. making their way to the MLB.. 

 

And they are still 2 years from being good.....and they have no excess hitters at all (that a rebuilding team would want).

[Taildragger8791]

 

And they are still 2 years from being good.....and they have no excess hitters at all (that a rebuilding team would want).

 

This is basically my feeling about any trades like this. The Twins need all their hitting prospects to pan out as it is, because there isn't another wave of talent pushing its way up to the big club in the next few years. I wouldn't be trading any of the top talent. I also can't stomach another decent NL pitcher coming over and getting shelled for 3-4 years after we invested in him. Clearly something isn't translating well in the Twins' evaluation of NL pitchers so I'd hope they keep the phone in the pocket.

[USAFChief]

If Atlanta is open to trading a 25 yr old, cost controlled pitcher, it's because they are convinced he's at peak value.

 

No thanks.

[gunnarthor]

 

Actually my -2.5 is generous

 

Data here (fangraphs) 

 

Peak FB: (2011) 93.0

2016 FB: 90.1 

-2.9

 

Pitchf/x

Peak FA: (2011) 93.0  (had his 2-seamer at 93.6 ave in 2012, but with 1% of pitches...)
2016 FA: 90.4
-2.6

Oh.  You were using his 19 innings in 2011.  OK.  

[Hrbowski]

Never.

[d-mac]

 

Oh.  You were using his 19 innings in 2011.  OK.  

 

IRC, Teheran had a ton of hype as a young pitching prospect/phenom. But I believe he ended up getting hurt shortly after his callup and he never fully recovered his FB velocity. 

[Kwak]

 

This is frustrating to me mostly because the Braves are terrible and in sell mode but actually have a decent young but experienced player who can bring back some future help.

 

Though if the Twins had a similar player, I also doubt they'd trade him. If Gibson rebounds this summer, it will be interesting to see if the Twins think about moving him, my guess is no.

 

 

If Atlanta is open to trading a 25 yr old, cost controlled pitcher, it's because they are convinced he's at peak value.

No thanks.

 

So, if may surmise, ATL has a good, cost-controlled young player at peak value and they are looking for future help--they look to the Minnesota Twins? I've heard stories about the peach moonshine but did they really drink that much of it?

[tobi0040]

Strike one: Career 3.88 FIP / 3.94 xFIP / 3.86 SIERA in the NL 

Strike two: 2.5 miles down from peak FB velocity

Strike three:  A rebuilding team is not willing to build around him but wants to get rid of him

 

He's out.

 

(unless the Twins can trade Nolasco/Hughes and Plouffe/Dozier for him and move him on on a different trade)

Yeah, a red flag is a rebuilding team wants to trade a 25 year old for another 25 year old. Not a 30 year old for a 25 year old, or a 25 year old for prospects.

[Vanimal46]

Biggentleben knows more about this situation than most of us, but it appears the Braves are rich with pitching prospects and weak on hitting prospects. The rumor I read is they're looking for an MLB-ready OF similar to Teheran's age.

[bluechipper]

The Buxton/Sano/Kepler trade proposals are obviously waaaay too much. If a team could pry a player with the talent of one of those three away from a team for a #3 starter, it would be the Braves though. I still cannot believe that Arizona gave up Dansby Swanson for Shelby Miller.

[jimmer]

 

 I still cannot believe that Arizona gave up Dansby Swanson for Shelby Miller.

Dave Stewart.

[alarp33]

 

The Buxton/Sano/Kepler trade proposals are obviously waaaay too much. If a team could pry a player with the talent of one of those three away from a team for a #3 starter, it would be the Braves though. I still cannot believe that Arizona gave up Dansby Swanson for Shelby Miller.

 

Right, there isn't a match to be had. There's no way the Twins are giving ATL Buxton, Sano, or Kepler. And there's no way ATL would accept anything less than that.

 

Nor should they by the way.  Rosario is not a real trade piece.  Neither is Arcia,  Neither is Nolasco, or Hughes, or Plouffe, etc... 

 

 

[Ncgo4]

25 year old Julio Teheran was placed on the trade block by the Braves yesterday. Braves GM John Coppollella said to Ken Rosenthal the team will trade Teheran for "a hitter of comparable quality and age" and would need to be "overwhelmed" by a trade offer. He's enjoying a nice bounce back season with a 2.77 ERA, 8.17 K/9 and is signed under a team friendly deal until 2019 (3/25 left)

What would the Twins have to give up to get the ball rolling? If the Twins open negotiations with Rosario, is that enough to continue talking?

Yeah, just what we need...another road block keeping our minor league pitching staff from moving forward.. Of course, we've got TR's great history of negotiating great deals with pitchers so at least we could feel good about that.