Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Squirrel]

 

ThePuck:

 

[Thrylos]

 

yeah, but that happens in quick chats. I imagine that's why a followup was asked by the poster.

 

and he's not a Mariners blogger :-)

 

Of course he is a Mariners' blogger.   Despite the fact that he is outsourcing his blog these days...

Wonder whether someone asked if the Dodgers had Dozier, would they trade him to the Twins for DeLeon straight up too...

 

Duh.

[jimmer]

 

Of course he is a Mariners' blogger.   Despite the fact that he is outsourcing his blog these days...

Wonder whether someone asked if the Dodgers had Dozier, would they trade him to the Twins for DeLeon straight up too...

 

Duh.

He used to be a Mariners blogger.  He has long since moved on and has a bunch of experience covering all teams.

[drjim]

I like Cameron, generally enjoy his thinking, but I can't endorse his Dozier for De Leon take here.

[Thrylos]

 

He used to be a Mariners blogger.  He has long since moved on and has a bunch of experience covering all teams.

 

Sure.  And rooting for all of them I suspect 

[nicksaviking]

I like Cameron, generally enjoy his thinking, but I can't endorse his Dozier for De Leon take here.

I disagree also but to be fair, Cameron appears to be unjustifiably high on De Leon, not down on Dozier.

 

I like the guy but a 24-year-old righty throwing 92-93 and a below average breaking pitch? That seems much more iffy than Cameron describes. Seems like he has him as a top 10 kind of prospect.

[drjim]

I disagree also but to be fair, Cameron appears to be unjustifiably high on De Leon, not down on Dozier.

 

I like the guy but a 24-year-old righty throwing 92-93 and a below average breaking pitch? That seems much more iffy than Cameron describes. Seems like he has him as a top 10 kind of prospect.

Cameron gives great credence to changeup guys, which might explain his valuation.

 

Sickels also had him as a A/A- prospect, which would put him in the 5-10 range for pitchers.

 

I like De Leon, would gladly have him as a centerpiece, but there is too much risk for a straight up offer.

[jimmer]

 

I disagree also but to be fair, Cameron appears to be unjustifiably high on De Leon, not down on Dozier.

I like the guy but a 24-year-old righty throwing 92-93 and a below average breaking pitch? That seems much more iffy than Cameron describes. Seems like he has him as a top 10 kind of prospect.

Sickels had him as the #5 prospect in baseball in his end of September prospect listing (so after the minor league system AND draft).

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Sickels had him as the #5 prospect in baseball in his end of September prospect listing (so after the minor league system AND draft).

 

He's an A- now, so I doubt that will be the case when he releases his big list.  No question he'd be instantly the top prospect in our system though. 

[Thrylos]

 

He's an A- now, so I doubt that will be the case when he releases his big list.  No question he'd be instantly the top prospect in our system though. 

 

I'd question that

 

And not only because he already started 4 games in the majors.

[Mike Sixel]

9:12
J. Peterman: Do you still believe in Berrios?
9:12
Paul Swydan: I WANT to believe. But my faith is waning, for sure.
9:13
Dr Evil: While the Twins may not have a huge # of options for Dozier beyond the Dodgers, should they hold out for a significant 2nd piece beyond Deleon?
9:13
Paul Swydan: Yes, absolutely. The Dodgers are bluffing. They’re not starting Kike Hernandez at second all year.

[d-mac]

 

I don't agree with Dave that De Leon by himself is a reasonable return for Dozier.... However, I do agree with him that the Twins are making a mistake holding Dozier for a better offer down the line. 

 

The Twins are in between the ultimate rock and a hard place. It's a mistake to hang on to him- very low likelihood of a better deal at the deadline, plus a high risk of Dozier slumping, not to mention one half year less of production. Dozier is worth more than De Leon right now, but there isn't much of a market for him right now. The Twins have zero leverage and the Dodgers know this.

[d-mac]

 

I disagree also but to be fair, Cameron appears to be unjustifiably high on De Leon, not down on Dozier.

I like the guy but a 24-year-old righty throwing 92-93 and a below average breaking pitch? That seems much more iffy than Cameron describes. Seems like he has him as a top 10 kind of prospect.

 

Well, John Sickels has De Leon as his #5 overall post-2016 prospect (released Sept, 24th). A lot of people are high on De Leon. 

[d-mac]

 

Sickels had him as the #5 prospect in baseball in his end of September prospect listing (so after the minor league system AND draft).

 

Beat me to it!

[drjim]

 

The Twins are in between the ultimate rock and a hard place. It's a mistake to hang on to him- very low likelihood of a better deal at the deadline, plus a high risk of Dozier slumping, not to mention one half year less of production. Dozier is worth more than De Leon right now, but there isn't much of a market for him right now. The Twins have zero leverage and the Dodgers know this.

 

The leverage is they don't trade him and the Dodgers have a worse solution. It's not ideal leverage but it's not zero.

[d-mac]

 

The leverage is they don't trade him and the Dodgers have a worse solution. It's not ideal leverage but it's not zero.

 

The Dodgers are the favorite to win their division and are one of the top teams in baseball. The Cubs are going to regress without Chapman and Fowler. How much would Dozier improve their team over a different option? To me Dozier seems like a luxury for them. 

[drjim]

 

The Dodgers are the favorite to win their division and are one of the top teams in baseball. The Cubs are going to regress without Chapman and Fowler. How much would Dozier improve their team over a different option? To me Dozier seems like a luxury for them. 

 

Probably true. Which is why there's no trade.

[Mike Sixel]

BL27
12:02 what to expect about Miguel Sano in 2017 ? 35 HR - 90 RBI ?

 

Eno Sarris
12:02 Too early to hang the injury tag on him, so yeah.

 

Bork
12:05 How do you predict the Twins/Dozier saga ending?

 

Eno Sarris
12:05 A trade, probably to the Dodgers.

[Mike Sixel]

JT Snow
12:22 Hey Eno - do you see Buxton fulfilling all the promise this year? Chances on a .280 season with 25+ homers and 50+ steals?

 

Eno Sarris
12:22 I'm pretty down on him.
So many whiffs.
Mechanics so messed up.

[Vanimal46]

 

JT Snow
12:22 Hey Eno - do you see Buxton fulfilling all the promise this year? Chances on a .280 season with 25+ homers and 50+ steals?

 

Eno Sarris
12:22 I'm pretty down on him.
So many whiffs.
Mechanics so messed up.

Ha! I was just going to post that... Also, JT Snow... Haven't read that name in 10+ years. 

[Taildragger8791]

 

JT Snow
12:22 Hey Eno - do you see Buxton fulfilling all the promise this year? Chances on a .280 season with 25+ homers and 50+ steals?

 

Eno Sarris
12:22 I'm pretty down on him.
So many whiffs.
Mechanics so messed up.

 

That is one extremely optimistic prediction on Buxton. .265 with 15 homers and 25 steals would be a good 2017 for him and represent significant progress. He's capable of more but I'm not going to set my expectations too high this season.

 

I don't see Buxton ever stealing much over 30 bases unless he gets more aggressive without slipping his success rate. Or he suddenly becomes an on-base machine.

[Thrylos]

 

The Dodgers are the favorite to win their division and are one of the top teams in baseball. The Cubs are going to regress without Chapman and Fowler. How much would Dozier improve their team over a different option? To me Dozier seems like a luxury for them. 

 

The Dodgers finished only 4 games ahead of the Giants and in head to head games the Giants won 11-8.  There is enough off-season left to call them the favorite yet.

Also, The Nationals, in addition to the Cubs, had a better record than the Dodgers, and the Mets who had 4 fewer wins than the Dodgers will improve in 2017 with Cespedes for a full season, Harvey and Wright back full time, so the Dodgers got their work cut out for them as far as dominating the NL goes.  At this point I'd probably ranked them 4th in the league, slightly ahead of the Giants and Cardinals (who you have to watch out for in a potentially weekened NL Central), but behind the other 3 teams mentioned

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He's an A- now, so I doubt that will be the case when he releases his big list.

De Leon is still "A/A-" according to Sickels:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/1/6/14193446/los-angeles-dodgers-top-20-prospects-for-2017

 

Looks like he simply left off all the slash letter grades on his September list, so I don't think it was necessarily a downgrade since then:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/9/24/12932956/top-100-prospects-end-of-2016

 

Since that list, it looks like Benintendi and Rosario would leapfrog De Leon (to straight "A" grades), but Giolito would fall behind him.

 

De Leon has the same "A/A-" letter grade as Glasnow (September's #3) and Reyes (#8), so I am sure he's still up there in that range even if he isn't precisely #5 anymore.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Dodgers finished only 4 games ahead of the Giants and in head to head games the Giants won 11-8.  There is enough off-season left to call them the favorite yet.

Also, The Nationals, in addition to the Cubs, had a better record than the Dodgers, and the Mets who had 4 fewer wins than the Dodgers will improve in 2017 with Cespedes for a full season, Harvey and Wright back full time, so the Dodgers got their work cut out for them as far as dominating the NL goes.  At this point I'd probably ranked them 4th in the league, slightly ahead of the Giants and Cardinals (who you have to watch out for in a potentially weekened NL Central), but behind the other 3 teams mentioned

So we give other teams credit for getting players back from injury/etc., but not the Dodgers?

 

Heck, Cespedes missed only 14 games on the DL all season.  I don't think you can predict any player to miss less than that.

 

I'm not sure I'd call any team a meaningful favorite to be the absolute best right now, but the Dodgers are clearly in that top tier.

[d-mac]

 

The Dodgers finished only 4 games ahead of the Giants and in head to head games the Giants won 11-8.  There is enough off-season left to call them the favorite yet.

Also, The Nationals, in addition to the Cubs, had a better record than the Dodgers, and the Mets who had 4 fewer wins than the Dodgers will improve in 2017 with Cespedes for a full season, Harvey and Wright back full time, so the Dodgers got their work cut out for them as far as dominating the NL goes.  At this point I'd probably ranked them 4th in the league, slightly ahead of the Giants and Cardinals (who you have to watch out for in a potentially weekened NL Central), but behind the other 3 teams mentioned

 

Fangraphs has the Dodgers as a 95 win team and the Giants as an 88 win team in 2017. Seven wins is a pretty big gap once you get over 90. The Mets are an 84 win team. Also aren't in the same division. The Cubs right now are the Dodger's only peer in either league. Adding Dozier may push them to 97, 98 wins. But it basically doesn't make much of a difference come playoff time. The playoffs are such a crapshoot.  

[alarp33]

 

So we give other teams credit for getting players back from injury/etc., but not the Dodgers?

 

Heck, Cespedes missed only 14 games on the DL all season.  I don't think you can predict any player to miss less than that.

 

I'm not sure I'd call any team a meaningful favorite to be the absolute best right now, but the Dodgers are clearly in that top tier.

 

Exactly. Kershaw only started 21 games, Rich Hill only 6 for the Dodgers.  Urias was a rookie, etc.  

 

Also, David Wright is "back full time"? The same David Wright that has played 30 some games each of the past two seasons and has a debilitating back injury

[Thrylos]

 

Fangraphs has the Dodgers as a 95 win team and the Giants as an 88 win team in 2017. Seven wins is a pretty big gap once you get over 90. The Mets are an 84 win team. Also aren't in the same division. The Cubs right now are the Dodger's only peer in either league. Adding Dozier may push them to 97, 98 wins. But it basically doesn't make much of a difference come playoff time. The playoffs are such a crapshoot.  

 

Got it.  Projections.

Well... Sanity test:   How many wins did Fangraphs projected the Twins to have in 2016 again?

 

 

[d-mac]

 

Got it.  Projections.

Well... Sanity test:   How many wins did Fangraphs projected the Twins to have in 2016 again?

 

Well it's more intellectually honest than pulling numbers out of your butt based on feels. 

[snepp]

 

Well it's more intellectually honest than pulling numbers out of your butt based on feels. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Mike*
9:11 Who do you think has the bigger downside? Dozier regression to mean or DeLeon not living up to expectations and/or injury?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:12 Dozier has averaged 4 WAR a year over the last four seasons. He's a really good player. De Leon is a pitching prospect with health questions. It's easily De Leon, which is among the reasons why him alone hasn't been sufficient to swing an exchange

 

*not me....