The Bench

[Mike Sixel]

 

Heh, I suspect Santana is more there out of fear of losing a quality player to waivers than expected performance (at least in April), pretty much the same as Arcia.

 

And I think that's the correct course of action for early 2016. Give these guys two months to figure out who stays on the roster and who gets the boot. It would be unnecessarily risky (in either direction) to make that decision today.

 

Best case scenario, Santana and Arcia thrive, Nunez gets the boot.

 

Most likely scenario, Arcia is okay, Nunez is whatever, and Santana is "please god, I've seen enough already".

 

Hopefully Arcia and Santana get in games, then, so we can see if they can contribute.......Arcia has no role on this roster, this year or in the future, if Sano is an OF (not with Kepler in AAA). I don't know what to do about him, I think he can hit, but he'll never show it sitting on the bench. They are, imo, in a no win spot with him.

[Vanimal46]

Lots of talk of Nunez being insurance, and Santana is the insurance for the insurance.

 

*Nationwide jingle tone*

 

I just wish we had nice things.

 

Carlos Quentin please come back.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Hopefully Arcia and Santana get in games, then, so we can see if they can contribute.......Arcia has no role on this roster, this year or in the future, if Sano is an OF (not with Kepler in AAA). I don't know what to do about him, I think he can hit, but he'll never show it sitting on the bench. They are, imo, in a no win spot with him.

Yeah, I think it's going to be kinda tough to get Oswaldo enough playing time, which is unfortunate.

 

Of course, he put himself in this position with an absolutely terrible 2015 season.

[tobi0040]

 

The Twins chose to keep Nunez and Santana though Santana gives them coverage at 6 positions. He can also pinch run. They could have looked to improve the hitting off the bench. They chose not to address that need opting for flexibility instead. Not every team would make this choice.

 

The Twins might look at it is injury insurance. Though Dozier will play nearly every day he may get injured. They might look at it as protection against Escobar not hitting. In either of those cases Nunez is an asset assuming Polanco tanks in AAA.

 

Another team might look at it and see Santana's versatility and Polanco in AAA. They might see Sano as an option at 3B. They might look assess their failure to pinch hit in 2015. They might go into winter looking for a real option for a bat on the bench.

 

Ryan chose to go with the flexibility Nunez offers over a bat. It could be the right call. There are 160 games left to show that keeping both Nunez and Santana offer real in game value to the team.

 

It is 160 games, but in almost any instance you can call a player up within a day in the event of an injury.

 

I hope Jack Goin can run some numbers on the likelihood of 2-3 players getting hurt in the same game.  Then if the event that happens and you have 1-2 innings left in the game, the odds of a ball being hit to the guy that is playing a position he is not used to and screwing up.

 

Seems like you would be able to quantify this with math, then weigh it against what you lose by not having another actual hitter on the bench.   My bet is the extra hitter wins.

 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It is 160 games, but in almost any instance you can call a player up within a day in the event of an injury.

 

I hope Jack Goin can run some numbers on the likelihood of 2-3 players getting hurt in the same game.  Then if the event that happens and you have 1-2 innings left in the game, the odds of a ball being hit to the guy that is playing a position he is not used to and screwing up.

 

Seems like you would be able to quantify this with math, then weigh it against what you lose by not having another actual hitter on the bench.   My bet is the extra hitter wins.

Again, I don't think it has much to do with one game (and I agree with you that a single game situation isn't likely enough to matter and decisions should not be based on an injury situation in a single game).

 

If Santana had options, he'd be in the minors. We'd probably see a different guy on the roster, one with (maybe) a more potent bat.

 

But Santana can't be relied upon to perform - at least not in April of 2016, he can't - so the Twins also need Nunez on the roster for better roster coverage in case a starter goes down for a prolonged period of time.

 

Which is why I hope Santana gets it going, making Nunez expendable. But right now, it makes sense to keep both of them because one player - while talented and young - cannot be trusted to take over starting duties for Dozier or Escobar and he has to stay on the roster while you figure it out.

 

In essence, we should just view Santana as a Rule 5 guy.

[Mike Sixel]

See, I don't think Nunez can be counted on either.....and I'd rather see Santana get every single opportunity when it arises.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

See, I don't think Nunez can be counted on either.....and I'd rather see Santana get every single opportunity when it arises.

Nunez can be relied upon to not destroy a team that expects to contend. Past that, it's questionable.

 

But Danny Santana was possibly the worst player in baseball last season. The worst. It's entirely possible he could destroy a team that expects to contend.

 

But he has enough talent that you want to keep him around to see what happens. Again, just view him as a Rule 5 guy because that's basically what he is right now.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Wouldn't Carlos Quentin have come in handy last night?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Nunez can be relied upon to not destroy a team that expects to contend. Past that, it's questionable.

 

But Danny Santana was possibly the worst player in baseball last season. The worst. It's entirely possible he could destroy a team that expects to contend.

 

But he has enough talent that you want to keep him around to see what happens. Again, just view him as a Rule 5 guy because that's basically what he is right now.

 

Somehow I had forgotten that....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It is 160 games, but in almost any instance you can call a player up within a day in the event of an injury.

Not only that, but judging from history I'd expect Dozier to try to play through most injuries first anyway, further reducing the need for his potential injury replacement to be on the 25-man roster at all times.

[tobi0040]

 

Nunez can be relied upon to not destroy a team that expects to contend. Past that, it's questionable.

 

But Danny Santana was possibly the worst player in baseball last season. The worst. It's entirely possible he could destroy a team that expects to contend.

 

But he has enough talent that you want to keep him around to see what happens. Again, just view him as a Rule 5 guy because that's basically what he is right now.

 

These are valid points for the way the roster is set for the next 20-30 games, but this is not a situational thing.  The Twins have been constructing a bench based on the assumption that 2-3 players are going to get hurt in the same game, the worst case scenario you mentioned and handcuffed themselves in terms of bench bats as long as I can remember.

 

It would be a beneficial thing for them to evaluate.  If we have Nunez/Santana for a short time and move to a more optimal bench in a month or two that would be great.  But I have no indication that will happen. 

 

 

 

[USAFChief]

The bench is one way the Twins self-imposed salary cap really comes into play.

 

A team like the Red Sox is paying Chris Young $6.5M to be a 4th OFer.

 

Can you imagine the Twins doing something similar with their bench?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

These are valid points for the way the roster is set for the next 20-30 games, but this is not a situational thing.  The Twins have been constructing a bench based on the assumption that 2-3 players are going to get hurt in the same game, the worst case scenario you mentioned and handcuffed themselves in terms of bench bats as long as I can remember.

 

It would be a beneficial thing for them to evaluate.  If we have Nunez/Santana for a short time and move to a more optimal bench in a month or two that would be great.  But I have no indication that will happen. 

Sure, if they stick with this formation when one/some/all of the players are struggling for 2+ months, then that's a big problem.

 

And given their history, that's a possibility (though I haven't been convinced that past wasn't driven by Gardy's infatuation with "situational" (more like crap) players consuming the entire bench).

[ThejacKmp]

 

Does Molitor have so little confidence in his right handed pinch hitting options that he sees Suzuki as a better option? If that is the case, they might need to rethink the bench. Pinch hitting for the Twins was awful last year. Pinch hitters put up a slash line of 171/224/256. Molitor had little confidence and went to a pinch hitter less than any other AL manager. 

 

It is a nice luxury to have two utility men. If neither can be counted on to pinch hit for Suzuki late in the game, perhaps it is a luxury that they can not afford. Do the Twins need a right handed bat on the bench they can count on in high leverage late inning opportunities? Maybe facing a lefty late in games doesn't come up enough. Maybe it is more likely that the need for an extra utility man will surface.

 

This is the bench the Twins chose long before spring training started. So far I would have preferred to see a better right handed bat than a second utility man/ pinch runner.

 

I thought the same thing initially last night but then realized that the Twins really don't need a right handed bench bat. You're not pinch hitting for Joey and if Arcia is playing, that means Sano/Park is available off the bench. You could pinch hit for Suzuki last night if he was facing a righty but that means you'd get Arcia - there really isn't so much of a need for it that it's worth more than Santana/Nunez.

 

I do wish they'd pinch hit for Suzuki in the opener. I hope that happens more throughout the year.

[tobi0040]

Sure, if they stick with this formation when one/some/all of the players are struggling for 2+ months, then that's a big problem.

 

And given their history, that's a possibility (though I haven't been convinced that past wasn't driven by Gardy's infatuation with "situational" (more like crap) players consuming the entire bench).

I didn't really see any changes to the bench last year and we were third from the bottom in terms of PH AB

[d-mac]

 

Actually, they're pretty much the *same* hitter.

 

vs LHP career:

Suzuki: .665

Nunez: .686

 

vs LHP 2015:

Suzuki: .658

Nunez: .649

 

Is this really worth complaining about?

 

Apart from a BABIP inflated 4 months in 2014, Suzuki hasn't had a OPS over .650 since 2011. And that includes an OPS of .610 last year. Nunez has never had a season where his OPS was below .650. Don't kid yourself, Suzuki will likely be the worst hitter on the 25 man roster this year. 

[DocBauer]

 

Again, I don't think it has much to do with one game (and I agree with you that a single game situation isn't likely enough to matter and decisions should not be based on an injury situation in a single game).

 

If Santana had options, he'd be in the minors. We'd probably see a different guy on the roster, one with (maybe) a more potent bat.

 

But Santana can't be relied upon to perform - at least not in April of 2016, he can't - so the Twins also need Nunez on the roster for better roster coverage in case a starter goes down for a prolonged period of time.

 

Which is why I hope Santana gets it going, making Nunez expendable. But right now, it makes sense to keep both of them because one player - while talented and young - cannot be trusted to take over starting duties for Dozier or Escobar and he has to stay on the roster while you figure it out.

 

In essence, we should just view Santana as a Rule 5 guy.

Great post!

 

I am actually a fan of Nunez. A utility player usually plays great defense, or can hit. Generally, they can't do both. If they did....they'd be a starter.

 

Nunez is OK defensively and can hit a bit. Santana offers speed, some pop, and positional flexibility with OK defense. He is as much potential as anything else. I like both of these guys and think they are solid bench guys. They'd be even better bench guys if the Twins could keep an 11 man pitching staff that would allow another "bench bat" to go along with Arcia.

 

While he really needs to play every day, my hope, (and general thought) is a role will open up for Polanco at some point, replacing Nunez or Santana.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Apart from a BABIP inflated 4 months in 2014, Suzuki hasn't had a OPS over .650 since 2011. And that includes an OPS of .610 last year. Nunez has never had a season where his OPS was below .650. Don't kid yourself, Suzuki will likely be the worst hitter on the 25 man roster this year. 

Except for the part where their splits against LHP are essentially the same. Their career splits. Not 2014, not 2015, but their entire careers as hitters. They're both bad against LHP.

 

Listen, I realize how much fun it is to hate on Suzuki but those are the facts of the matter. It could easily be argued that Suzuki had as much - or even better due to OBP - of a chance to succeed in that situation as Nunez.

[sane16]

So far I would have preferred to see a better right handed bat than a second utility man/ pinch runner.

In the American League, bench-player are not used primarily as pinch-hitters, pinch-runners and late-game defensive replacements as in the National League. (where pitchers have to be replaced offensively)

In the American League, bench players play ENTIRE games periodically to REST the starters. Different league (DH/no DH)= different use of bench players.

[d-mac]

 

Except for the part where their splits against LHP are essentially the same. Their career splits. Not 2014, not 2015, but their entire careers as hitters. They're both bad against LHP.

 

Listen, I realize how much fun it is to hate on Suzuki but those are the facts of the matter. It could easily be argued that Suzuki had as much - or even better due to OBP - of a chance to succeed in that situation as Nunez.

 

Does it matter what Suzuki's career splits are when he hasn't consistently produced at that level in 5 years? Based on his age, projecting his production based on his career production seems foolish. In other words, his career numbers are inflated based on his productive years in Oakland in his mid 20's, thus are a pretty poor tool of comparing different options. 

[stringer bell]

I like Nuñez as a proven bench player. He's experienced in the role and has been acceptable for the two years he has spent with the Twins. Murphy is the backup catcher and both Santana and Arcia are wild cards in some respect--young, out of options guys who have demonstrated some success in the major leagues, but who struggled last year. You'll note Murphy and Santana are in the lineup today (if they play).

[stringer bell]

 

 

Does it matter what Suzuki's career splits are when he hasn't consistently produced at that level in 5 years? Based on his age, projecting his production based on his career production seems foolish. In other words, his career numbers are inflated based on his productive years in Oakland in his mid 20's, thus are a pretty poor tool of comparing different options. 

Zuke has an OK line as a Twin (.666 OPS, 85 OPS+) and it is much better than that vs. LH pitching. Let's not ignore the good to emphasize the bad. I don't want to argue to eternity about a player I am not that fond of, but he is a legit major league player who was pretty good just two years ago. In this thread, people have been asking for Quentin, who hasn't been good for a lot longer than Suzuki and Santana who was way worse last year than the Twins catcher.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Does it matter what Suzuki's career splits are when he hasn't consistently produced at that level in 5 years? Based on his age, projecting his production based on his career production seems foolish. In other words, his career numbers are inflated based on his productive years in Oakland in his mid 20's, thus are a pretty poor tool of comparing different options.

Dude, he produced at basically that same level lllllaaaasssttt season. The numbers are right there in the post you quoted.

[jorgenswest]

In the American League, bench-player are not used primarily as pinch-hitters, pinch-runners and late-game defensive replacements as in the National League. (where pitchers have to be replaced offensively)In the American League, bench players play ENTIRE games periodically to REST the starters. Different league (DH/no DH)= different use of bench players.

For some context...

 

In 2015, the Twins bench had 126 plate appearances. That was the lowest number in the AL. The median number of plate appearances during games from the bench in the AL was 210. Tampa Bay was first in the AL with 397 plate appearances.

 

I suppose all of the capitalization above was meant to make a point about my severe misunderstanding of the AL and bench use. I prefer to go to the data rather than capitalized generalizations. To me, the data shows that the Twins utilization of their bench was not typical of AL teams in 2015.

[kab21]

There is a reason why bench players are on the bench.

 

And are people really wishing that Quentin was the option?  I think people underestimate how often players get dinged up and are unavailable for a game or two (or frustratingly longer). Having Quentin and Arcia on the bench is almost laughable when combined with a DH that only plays 1B.

[nicksaviking]

There is a reason why bench players are on the bench.

 

And are people really wishing that Quentin was the option?  I think people underestimate how often players get dinged up and are unavailable for a game or two (or frustratingly longer). Having Quentin and Arcia on the bench is almost laughable when combined with a DH that only plays 1B.

I don't like thinking that bench guys are there in case a player misses a couple of games. You can call up Polanco, Bersford, Micheal, Mastroianni or Benson if you need a warm body for a few games.

 

I am however much higher on Nunez than most, he was really solid offensively last year when used. Though if he isn't going to be used, and I can't think of a more ideal time than to pinch hit for Suzuki, then I'm not sure the manager and the GM are on the same page. I don't really think Ryan put together a 25-man thinking there wasn't a RH pinch hitter for his manager to use.

[sane16]

For some context...

 

I suppose all of the capitalization above was meant to make a point about my severe misunderstanding of the AL and bench use.

My capitalization does not indicate criticism of "severe" anything.

I was just trying to emphasize a point, which is that:

Some teams keep some bench players for pinch-running or late defensive purposes. (minimize plate appearances).

Some teams keep other bench players for pinch-hitting, especially for pitchers (in the NL).

Some teams (IMO mostly in the AL) keep bench players who are good enough two-way players to play full games hitting and fielding without hurting the team either half of the inning in order to rest starters.

If I am wrong, it won't be the first or last time for me.

No criticism intended

[kab21]

 

I don't like thinking that bench guys are there in case a player misses a couple of games. You can call up Polanco, Bersford, Micheal, Mastroianni or Benson if you need a warm body for a few games.

I am however much higher on Nunez than most, he was really solid offensively last year when used. Though if he isn't going to be used, and I can't think of a more ideal time than to pinch hit for Suzuki, then I'm not sure the manager and the GM are on the same page. I don't really think Ryan put together a 25-man thinking there wasn't a RH pinch hitter for his manager to use.

You can't just call up a player for a few games.  Someone has to go on the DL or be optioned down.  In Quentin's case you have to put the player on waivers since he can't be sent down.

These little injuries are a fact of life in baseball.  They happen all of the time.

 

Nunez is the type of player that isn't great (he isn't a starter) but he can be plugged into the lineup at multiple positions and there isn't a catastrophic dropoff overall since he is adequate both offensively or defensively.  Santana is a much better defender at all of the up the middle positions but the bat is a question mark.  If it wasn't then he would contend for a starting job.

 

The bench this year is actually fairly decent provided Arcia can hit in a part time role and Santana can hit at all.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

You can't just call up a player for a few games.  Someone has to go on the DL or be optioned down.  In Quentin's case you have to put the player on waivers since he can't be sent down.

These little injuries are a fact of life in baseball.  They happen all of the time.

 

Nunez is the type of player that isn't great (he isn't a starter) but he can be plugged into the lineup at multiple positions and there isn't a catastrophic dropoff overall since he is adequate both offensively or defensively.  Santana is a much better defender at all of the up the middle positions but the bat is a question mark.  If it wasn't then he would contend for a starting job.

 

The bench this year is actually fairly decent provided Arcia can hit in a part time role and Santana can hit at all.

There is nothing wrong with putting a guy on waivers. Nunez and Santana are redundant. They both have essentially the same skills and are average at best at those skills. The Twins decided to keep both anyway. At least Quentin would have brought something a little different than those two.

[tobi0040]

My capitalization does not indicate criticism of "severe" anything.

I was just trying to emphasize a point, which is that:

Some teams keep some bench players for pinch-running or late defensive purposes. (minimize plate appearances).

Some teams keep other bench players for pinch-hitting, especially for pitchers (in the NL).

Some teams (IMO mostly in the AL) keep bench players who are good enough two-way players to play full games hitting and fielding without hurting the team either half of the inning in order to rest starters.

If I am wrong, it won't be the first or last time for me.

No criticism intended

When you see the Rays doing something a lot and Twins not very much, I am going to just assume they are onto something.

 

Over the last five years they have strategized via trade and FA signings guys that are cheap, flexible defensively who have a nice split one way and they use it to their advantage. Often guys that are cheap but they can platoon to an average or above average position output.