Suzuki vs. Murphy

[ewen21]

I was very pleased when the Twins dealt Hicks for JR Murphy.  I think Murphy has excellent potential to be a solid major league catcher for a number of years. I think he might be able to start on that right away.  

 

The Twins, however, have the veteran incumbent Suzuki.  Suzuki has garnered a lot of respect and is very respected by the staff.  I am wondering, will Murphy be at all held back because of partiality/loyalty/salary commitment to Suzuki?  I certainly hope not because the Twins obviously needed a catcher since Suzuki cratered down to earth last year.  I like Suzuki, but his inability to hit or throw out runners is a big problem.  By getting Murphy the Twins tried to address this problem.

 

I guess the thing I am trying to work out in my mind is how much of a chance is Murphy going to get THIS SEASON?  To me, a guy like Suzuki is a perfect backup catcher.  Not sure if Murphy is ready or not, but no way in heck should Suzuki's presence slow him down if he's hitting and plays defense as advertised.  If Murphy can hit around .270, play above average defense (he's very agile behind he plate) and throw out his fair share of runners.....I say play him.

 

Truth be told, I see a 75/25 share going to Suzuki (no matter what) through the first couple of months.  It will be interesting to see what the Twins do if Suzuki isn't any better than last year and Murphy is playing well.  HOw long might the Twins resist the urge to give Murphy the starting job.........I hope to see Murphy get a lot of at bats down in ST.

Here's hoping Murphy isn't in Rochester by June.  I'd like to see this kid get shot at being the catcher for the Twins

 

 

[Riverbrian]

Murphy cost us Hicks

 

If Murphy doesn't get the lions share of starts... The Twins overpaid.

[ewen21]

There is no way of determining who got the better of that trade after one season. It is possible to have a good trade for both teams.  I am not interested in who won the trade anyway.  I'm interested in what people think will happen in ST and beyond because the Twins had a big problem at catcher last year with Suzuki.  

For the record, I am not lamenting the loss of Hicks.

 

 

[jorgenswest]

Last year there were no other options once Pinto went down with a concussion in spring training. I think Molitor will give Murphy a larger share to start the season. He has stated that they have to be better at preventing stolen bases this year. The pitchers are a big piece of that puzzle, but all will be helped if Murphy has a quicker, stronger and more accurate arm.

 

I do wonder if it would be wise to tie a catcher to a starting pitcher trying to match skill sets. Suzuki was once very good at limiting wild pitches and passed balls. Which starting pitchers need that skill? Which starting pitchers need more help with stolen bases? Which need more help getting a low pitch called a strike? Who needs to get the high pitch called a strike? Which catcher is better at optimizing the pitch sequencing? The starting pitchers and catchers bring varying skill sets. Is there anything to gain by trying to match those sets?

[Riverbrian]

There is no way of determining who got the better of that trade after one season. It is possible to have a good trade for both teams. I am not interested in who won the trade anyway. I'm interested in what people think will happen in ST and beyond because the Twins had a big problem at catcher last year with Suzuki.

For the record, I am not lamenting the loss of Hicks.

I'm not very interested in 2017 right now so... While I agree that you can't determine who won the trade after one season... Any deal the Twins make should improve the team in 2016 because they were almost a playoff team in 2015.

 

For the reason you list "big problem at catcher last year". If Murphy can't beat Suzuki out for number one on the ole depth chart immediately... To me that would mean we gave Hicks away.

 

And then... At least I... Will seriously lament the loss of Hicks.

[gunnarthor]

I think Suzuki has a PA trigger in his contract so whatever that number is, he won't reach it.

[USAFChief]

I think Suzuki has a PA trigger in his contract so whatever that number is, he won't reach it.

485 PAs.

 

He got 503 PAs in 2014, 479 last year.

 

It's barely a factor.

 

My own guess is, Suzuki plays slightly less than full time for at least the first third of the season. Maybe 65 percent of the time instead of 75 percent. That's because he's the incumbent, but also because I think Murphy is massively overrated around here.

[nicksaviking]

That's because he's the incumbent, but also because I think Murphy is massively overrated around here.

Suzuki will surely get opening day, and I'd also guess he starts more early on, but I don't think it's set in stone. After all, Ryan did make a trade that was largely questioned, he's going to want to show off his end of that transaction to justify the move.

[ewen21]

 

 

Last year there were no other options once Pinto went down with a concussion in spring training. I think Molitor will give Murphy a larger share to start the season. He has stated that they have to be better at preventing stolen bases this year. The pitchers are a big piece of that puzzle, but all will be helped if Murphy has a quicker, stronger and more accurate arm.

I do wonder if it would be wise to tie a catcher to a starting pitcher trying to match skill sets. Suzuki was once very good at limiting wild pitches and passed balls. Which starting pitchers need that skill? Which starting pitchers need more help with stolen bases? Which need more help getting a low pitch called a strike? Who needs to get the high pitch called a strike? Which catcher is better at optimizing the pitch sequencing? The starting pitchers and catchers bring varying skill sets. Is there anything to gain by trying to match those sets?

This is the sort of thing that I am concerned about because the subjectivity of some pitchers begins to factor in and I feel it should be up to Molitor.  

 

I would also say Murphy's defense is very strong.  He is agile behind the plate and is excellent at blocking balls

[ewen21]

 

485 PAs.

He got 503 PAs in 2014, 479 last year.

It's barely a factor.

My own guess is, Suzuki plays slightly less than full time for at least the first third of the season. Maybe 65 percent of the time instead of 75 percent. That's because he's the incumbent, but also because I think Murphy is massively overrated around here.

I am new here so I am not sure who or how he has been overrated.  Perhaps I am overrating him by thinking we made a good trade?

 

 

[ewen21]

 

Suzuki will surely get opening day, and I'd also guess he starts more early on, but I don't think it's set in stone. After all, Ryan did make a trade that was largely questioned, he's going to want to show off his end of that transaction to justify the move.

This....so much this.

 

It is what I am afraid of, actually.

 

How long do the Twins keep Murphy at an arm's length in order to give Suzuki playing time (because TR overzealously extended him two years ago)?

[jorgenswest]

This is the sort of thing that I am concerned about because the subjectivity of some pitchers begins to factor in and I feel it should be up to Molitor.  

 

I would also say Murphy's defense is very strong.  He is agile behind the plate and is excellent at blocking balls

The Twins need strong defense behind the plate and every pitcher would benefit. Assuming the split is closer to 50/50 than 20/80, how do you think they might split the time? Agreeing that it is Molitor's decision, he could divide the time based on opposing pitcher and who might be better at the plate or divide the time based on matching with Twins starting pitcher. I would assume he would enter with some kind of plan that would be adjusted as both perform.

[ewen21]

 

The Twins need strong defense behind the plate and every pitcher would benefit. Assuming the split is closer to 50/50 than 20/80, how do you think they might split the time? Agreeing that it is Molitor's decision, he could divide the time based on opposing pitcher and who might be better at the plate or divide the time based on matching with Twins starting pitcher. I would assume he would enter with some kind of plan that would be adjusted as both perform.

It's really hard to say now.  I think I might have started this thread a little too early.  I think Suzuki is the starter until further notice and as far as comfort levels and pitchers...of course the starters will probably lean toward the incumbent

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

I am new here so I am not sure who or how he has been overrated.  Perhaps I am overrating him by thinking we made a good trade?

It has been a repeating theme around here that Murphy is as reputed a good to very good fielding catcher, and .734 OPS or better hitter.

I tend to overrate Murphy a bit too in assuming the Twins will get Murphy's to-date ceiling as a floor. the guy is in some ways a "prospect" in that he doesn't have much ML seasoning, but hope springs eternal. I know he may not turn out as advertised, but man I hope he surpasses expectations in every way in 2016 and runs away with the job.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That's because he's the incumbent, but also because I think Murphy is massively overrated around here.

Is he? I know some people have gone a bit off the rails but mostly, I see Murphy "supporters" claim he has a ceiling of league average catcher. That's not terribly impressive, as catchers have an average OPS around .690, IIRC.

 

I hope he turns league average - that'd be a big win for the Twins - but I suspect he'll settle somewhere just a tick south of that number. And I'm okay with that. I didn't love the trade but if Murphy pans out *at all*, the Twins are a better team with him on it.

[Thrylos]

Bit of perspective here:  Murphy is just 24 years old.  At that age Brian Dozier split the season between Fort Myers and New Britain and Trevor Plouffe, a September callup, was regarded as yet another first round bust at SS.

[USAFChief]

Is he? I know some people have gone a bit off the rails but mostly, I see Murphy "supporters" claim he has a ceiling of league average catcher. That's not terribly impressive, as catchers have an average OPS around .690, IIRC.

 

I hope he turns league average - that'd be a big win for the Twins - but I suspect he'll settle somewhere just a tick south of that number. And I'm okay with that. I didn't love the trade but if Murphy pans out *at all*, the Twins are a better team with him on it.

I would agree .690 is a reasonably optimistic goal, but I think many here will be disappointed in that. And of course, he still has to actually do that.

 

I also wouldnt call that a "big win" for the Twins. A big win is finding someone that actually moves the team forward.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I would agree .690 is a reasonably optimistic goal, but I think many here will be disappointed in that. And of course, he still has to actually do that.

 

I also wouldnt call that a "big win" for the Twins. A big win is finding someone that actually moves the team forward.

I'd call a league average Murphy a big win. Without him, catcher is a sinkhole for the foreseeable future. Getting league average numbers out of the position while the above average performances come out of Dozier, Sano, and maybe Buxton makes for a competent offense.

 

In 2015, Twins catchers posted an OPS around .600. Bumping that over .650 is worth quite a bit over the course of a season.

[bird]

I don't think there's much of consensus about Murphy around here. The least flattering characterization I can recall is that he's maybe an average backup, the most flattering I recall is league-average starter.

 

Regardless, I personally believe the decision about which will be the starter will be made by Molitor and his staff, not by Ryan. I believe the decision will be rational and stands a great chance of being the correct one. My bet is that it will be Murphy.

 

 All talk about Suzuki getting the call over Murphy solely because of the supposed veteran fetish is specious to me, although I get how and why this myth is perpetuated. And I just don't think giving Murphy the nod because Ryan is worried about what we'll think about it enters the equation in any way shape or form.

 

The better catcher will start, the other will be the backup, period, IMO.

[HitInAPinch]

Molitor has said that Suzuki is the starting catcher.  Which makes a lot of sense because he has the experience with the Twins pitchers.  Murphy seems like a bright kid with a future. 

[ewen21]

 

 And I just don't think giving Murphy the nod because Ryan is worried about what we'll think about it enters the equation in any way shape or form.

 

The better catcher will start, the other will be the backup, period, IMO.

I don't agree.  If anything Ryan would rather give the nod to Suzuki because he overzealously extended him a couple of years ago, in season.  With Murphy, Ryan can take the "he's a prospect angle"

 

I gotta say I am very surprised that a lot of people are upset about losing Hicks.  He had some success for a brief period last year.  Other than, he has been a bad first round pick.  He's accomplished very little beyond AA and his 26 years old.  It seems because he is fast, has a great arm, is regarded as an athlete....this means he has boundless potential.  I don't see it that way.  There are tons of great athletes who cannot cut in the majors for whatever reason.

 

First of all, if you can't hit....then you aren't a major leaguer. Hicks proved he could hit a little last year, but I have my doubts the guy can hold up to the mental grind.  That is a lot of the game as well.  Hicks was given many many chances.  How many more do you give the guy?

 

Maybe he takes off with another organization, but I do not think he was going to here.  I am glad we have a major league ready catcher

[Riverbrian]

I'd like to clarify my earlier posts.

 

I don't know if Murphy is better than Suzuki right now. I can't wait for the season so I can find out. I like to give the front office the benefit of the doubt and I will.

 

However... The way I see it. If Murphy isn't better than Suzuki and Murphy is the backup. The Twins didn't improve the position sufficiently.

 

It has to be Murphy as the starter or we weakened CF to improve backup C.

 

If we are the Phillies, Braves or Brewers this would be fine. The Twins are not and need players for 2016.

 

Therefore it better be Murphy as the starter and I hope he wows us all.

[nicksaviking]

Molitor has said that Suzuki is the starting catcher.  Which makes a lot of sense because he has the experience with the Twins pitchers.

 

Hmm, I've seen the Twins pitching lately, that's not overly encouraging.

[James Richter]

At Catcher as much as with the rotation and bullpen, the Twins' potential for 2016 depends on how quickly they pivot away from middling veterans to up-and-coming youngsters. The time share in April should be no more than 60/40 Suzuki, and Murphy will hopefully earn more time by summer.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Regardless, I personally believe the decision about which will be the starter will be made by Molitor and his staff, not by Ryan. I believe the decision will be rational and stands a great chance of being the correct one. My bet is that it will be Murphy.

 

All talk about Suzuki getting the call over Murphy solely because of the supposed veteran fetish is specious to me, although I get how and why this myth is perpetuated.

According to Molitor, he's not viewing it as an open competition at this point in time:

 

https://twitter.com/RhettBollinger/status/700817447142694913

[Brock Beauchamp]

According to Molitor, he's not viewing it as an open competition at this point in time:

 

https://twitter.com/RhettBollinger/status/700817447142694913

I think that's an odd statement to make in February but it doesn't rile me up, either. I'm more interested in seeing what happens as the season progresses. If Murphy is hitting and doesn't have at least 50% of the catching duties by June...

[jimmer]

 

According to Molitor, he's not viewing it as an open competition at this point in time:

https://twitter.com/RhettBollinger/status/700817447142694913

Nothing surprising about this.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think that's an odd statement to make in February but it doesn't rile me up, either. I'm more interested in seeing what happens as the season progresses. If Murphy is hitting and doesn't have at least 50% of the catching duties by June...

What if Murphy is playing only a couple games a week and not hitting, or hitting about as well as Suzuki? Will we hear more about how hard it is to hit in the backup catcher role, but no change in roles?

[jimmer]

 

What if Murphy is playing only a couple games a week and not hitting, or hitting about as well as Suzuki? Will we hear more about how hard it is to hit in the backup catcher role, but no change in roles?

We might hear about how much harder it is to hit in Target as opposed to Yankee Stadium as we see that .350ish BABIP come back down to league averagish :-)

 

.417 BABIP at Yankee Stadium, .288 Away.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'd say there is nothing surprising about the Molitor statement either, and in fact the Twins may have artificially limited their catcher search this winter because they didn't want to displace Suzuki as starter. (Not that I think there were many starting options available.)