Keith Law Ranks Twins Minor League System #3, Seven in Top 100

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Before the Mets traded for Neil Walker, I would have loved to see a trade of Steven Matz and a high potential A-baller for Dozier and Phil Hughes.... Or Dozier, Tommy Milone, Kohl Stewart, Chargois/Burdi/Reed, and filler for Harvey, Syndergaard or DeGrom...

I may have loved to see that too, but the Mets might not have been too keen.

[Mike Sixel]

He's already answered a Stewart question in his chat:

 

Josh Meyer: What do you make of Kohl Stewart’s lack of minor league strikeouts?

Klaw: Strong groundball guy, still learning to pitch and develop some of his offspeed stuff, especially the changeup. Don’t scout the stat line. His stuff is good and he’s only been doing the baseball thing full-time for three years now.

[alarp33]

 

I think the most overlooked player on Twins Daily has to be Jorge Polanco. With how much scrutiny Buxton, Stewart, Gordon, Jay and all of the relievers get, and for how much we talk about Plouffe blocking Sano, is there any way that Dozier could potentially be blocking Polanco?

Polanco's bat is major league ready and his glove, while still needing a lot of work, profiles best at 2B. Dozier had a monster first half last year but struggled brutally in the 2nd half. The real Brian Dozier is likely somewhere in the middle - an average 2B who hits a lot of home runs with a low OBP. I would love to trade him at his peak value to upgrade pitching while also pushing a promising young player into substantial playing time. Obviously this would signal another "we aren't ready to compete" year, but frankly, I don't think we are ready to compete with the Royals in the AL Central. Why not position ourselves in better position for the prime years of Sano, Buxton and Berrios?

Before the Mets traded for Neil Walker, I would have loved to see a trade of Steven Matz and a high potential A-baller for Dozier and Phil Hughes.... Or Dozier, Tommy Milone, Kohl Stewart, Chargois/Burdi/Reed, and filler for Harvey, Syndergaard or DeGrom...

 

I'd be totally fine with trading Dozier when Polanco is ready to take over, and hopefully could get a good prospect for him.  That being said, the Mets spend a solid 5 minutes laughing and then hang up the phone if you offered them either of those 2 hypothetical deals

[gunnarthor]

I don't see this mentioned but the good news for us is that he ranked us #3 but, more fun, he ranked the other teams in the Central
Cleveland - #11
White Sox - #22
Royals - #23
Tigers - #26

 

Cleveland graduated Lindor (who I think will be the best shortstop in baseball) and still have a solid system but the rest of the division is pretty beat up, prospect wise.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't see this mentioned but the good news for us is that he ranked us #3 but, more fun, he ranked the other teams in the Central
Cleveland - #11
White Sox - #22
Royals - #23
Tigers - #26

 

Cleveland graduated Lindor (who I think will be the best shortstop in baseball) and still have a solid system but the rest of the division is pretty beat up, prospect wise.

To be fair, the White Sox just graduated Rodon, and the Tigers Norris, and the White Sox and Royals still have some young talent on the MLB roster.  I don't think their low prospect rankings this year will prove to be terribly meaningful, in the long run.

[bluechipper]

 

To be fair, the White Sox just graduated Rodon, and the Tigers Norris, and the White Sox and Royals still have some young talent on the MLB roster.  I don't think their low prospect rankings this year will prove to be terribly meaningful, in the long run.

And the Twins just graduated Sano, and yet they're still considerably higher.

[bluechipper]

 

I don't see this mentioned but the good news for us is that he ranked us #3 but, more fun, he ranked the other teams in the Central
Cleveland - #11
White Sox - #22
Royals - #23
Tigers - #26

 

Cleveland graduated Lindor (who I think will be the best shortstop in baseball) and still have a solid system but the rest of the division is pretty beat up, prospect wise.

I don't think Carlos Correa agrees.

[jimmer]

 

I don't think Carlos Correa agrees.

and I'd agree with Correa :-)

[bluechipper]

 

Stewart is not a sinkerballer! 

I think if you throw a fastball that gets a ton of groundballs, you can call it a sinker.

[bluechipper]

The most encouraging ranking for me is Jorge Polanco at #66. Law really seems to believe in his offense and also that he's improved his speed. I've always enjoyed following his statline, and have become even more of a fan after his cameos with the Twins. I hope he has a strong year at triple-A and is ready to step in if a need arises in the middle IF this year.

[howieramone2]

 

The most encouraging ranking for me is Jorge Polanco at #66. Law really seems to believe in his offense and also that he's improved his speed. I've always enjoyed following his statline, and have become even more of a fan after his cameos with the Twins. I hope he has a strong year at triple-A and is ready to step in if a need arises in the middle IF this year.

I agree. My thought is once Buxton takes over CF, Polanco will really put the pressure on Santana and Nunez.

[nicksaviking]

I agree. My thought is once Buxton takes over CF, Polanco will really put the pressure on Santana and Nunez.

The Twins could really use a young guy with good on base skills. So far, of the youthful players only Sano has shown that ability at the MLB level.

[Han Joelo]

There is no way in hell I would give ESPN the satisfaction of extracting even $15 from me for content I can get for free other places.  I've already read enough blurbs here and other places that I can easily fill in the blanks.  Unless someone is holding back something really juicy, like only Klaw has noticed Stewart eats Special K with Banana every morning, and the last pitcher to do that was Pedro Martinez.  Come on, spill the beans.  I want the "inside" scoop!!

 

 The fact you have to pay for it doesn't make it any more valid.

 

On the other hand, if ESPN would have asked me for $15 a year to read ad-free Grantland, I would have happily obliged, if it would have meant its survival.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And the Twins just graduated Sano, and yet they're still considerably higher.

See the post I was responding to. I wasn't commenting on their ranking relative to the Twins, but rather their absolute ranking.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Polanco's bat is major league ready and his glove, while still needing a lot of work, profiles best at 2B. Dozier had a monster first half last year but struggled brutally in the 2nd half.

 

I'm not sure I'd call Polanco's bat major league ready.  He's has all of 16 MLB at bats (for one), and his AAA OPS was .667 (.740 in AA in 2015 as well).  His OPS has dropped pretty significantly has he's faced higher competition, and while age is on his side, I'm not sure we should pronounce his bat 'major league ready'.  Let's see how he does repeating in AAA.  A nice bounce from a 22 year old, and I think it might be worth finding a place for Polanco.

 

For the record, Dozier's post all star OPS was .631 (.841 pre-all star, something Polanco hasn't exceeded since rookie ball), and his glove is above average now.  If there's a case for anything, it might be to give Brian a bit more rest during the early parts of the season and possibly change his workout routine a bit to focus on endurance.  I'm not sure I'd trade Dozier for Polanco just yet.  That seems pretty short sighted.

[bird]

 

I don't see this mentioned but the good news for us is that he ranked us #3 but, more fun, he ranked the other teams in the Central
Cleveland - #11
White Sox - #22
Royals - #23
Tigers - #26

 

Cleveland graduated Lindor (who I think will be the best shortstop in baseball) and still have a solid system but the rest of the division is pretty beat up, prospect wise.

Wow, that's a massive upgrade for Detroit.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

For the record, Dozier's post all star OPS was .631 (.841 pre-all star, something Polanco hasn't exceeded since rookie ball),

 

Nah.  If you are going to split Dozier and SSS him, you better do the same with Polanco.

 

Polanco has a .950 MLB OPS

2015, day games AAA, he had a .971 OPS

2015, AA May, .844 OPS

 

And here is the kicker:

 

At the age that Polanco was last season (21), Dozier was still an amateur College player....

[gunnarthor]

 

I don't think Carlos Correa agrees.

Sure, that's another answer.  But Lindor is clearly a shortstop.  Correa looks like a third baseman fighting short to a draw.  And the defensive metrics - which have lots of problems - agree. 

[bluechipper]

 

Sure, that's another answer.  But Lindor is clearly a shortstop.  Correa looks like a third baseman fighting short to a draw.  And the defensive metrics - which have lots of problems - agree. 

As long as Carlos Correa is an average defensive SS, his offense gives him the advantage over Lindor and his great fielding for me, especially if Lindor hits more like he did in the minors than he did in his hot stretch last year.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I don't see this mentioned but the good news for us is that he ranked us #3 but, more fun, he ranked the other teams in the Central

Cleveland - #11

White Sox - #22

Royals - #23

Tigers - #26

 

Cleveland graduated Lindor (who I think will be the best shortstop in baseball) and still have a solid system but the rest of the division is pretty beat up, prospect wise.

In fairness, Detroit is more a player in the free agent market, also Chicago to a lesser extent, and as for Kansas City....that story has been written.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Dallas Kuechel had a 5.0 K/9 rate in 2011, 4.9 in AAA in 2012, Sonny Gray's was 5.9 in 2012.  

 

I don't have time to look for more examples, but yes he can be a successful ML pitcher even though he had low K rates his 1st 2 years in the minors.  

 

Do I think he's going to be a K per inning guy in the majors? Doesn't appear that way, but I don't think him bumping his rate up to 7 is out of the question, and he can absolutely be a good major league pitcher

I'm not sure about the Sonny Gray comp. Following up, it looks like the 2012 season you cite was his first full season in pro ball and it was AA ball, at that. So who knows how he was coached or what he was told to work on.

 

The Keuchel comp is a really good one though. Interestingly, what nick said about K rates peaking in high A, Keuchel's best K rate was 7.2/9 in high A. That is still significantly higher than what Stewart achieved, though. In other threads, there has been talk about his mechanics and injury tendencies. Maybe Stewart is better suited to the bullpen.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'm not sure about the Sonny Gray comp. Following up, it looks like the 2012 season you cite was his first full season in pro ball and it was AA ball, at that. So who knows how he was coached or what he was told to work on.

The Keuchel comp is a really good one though. Interestingly, what nick said about K rates peaking in high A, Keuchel's best K rate was 7.2/9 in high A. That is still significantly higher than what Stewart achieved, though. In other threads, there has been talk about his mechanics and injury tendencies. Maybe Stewart is better suited to the bullpen.

 

I'm guessing Gray was coached very well at Vanderbilt. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'm guessing Gray was coached very well at Vanderbilt.

 

No doubt. Vanderbilt is a power house.

[GACbaseball]

I'm not sure I'd call Polanco's bat major league ready.  He's has all of 16 MLB at bats (for one), and his AAA OPS was .667 (.740 in AA in 2015 as well).  His OPS has dropped pretty significantly has he's faced higher competition, and while age is on his side, I'm not sure we should pronounce his bat 'major league ready'.  Let's see how he does repeating in AAA.  A nice bounce from a 22 year old, and I think it might be worth finding a place for Polanco.

 

For the record, Dozier's post all star OPS was .631 (.841 pre-all star, something Polanco hasn't exceeded since rookie ball), and his glove is above average now.  If there's a case for anything, it might be to give Brian a bit more rest during the early parts of the season and possibly change his workout routine a bit to focus on endurance.  I'm not sure I'd trade Dozier for Polanco just yet.  That seems pretty short sighted.

For the record, I'm not saying Polanco is better than Dozier right now. What I'm saying is if we have a guy that is very close to being major league ready, and has great potential, why not sell high on Dozier? Do you really think he'll ever have a .841 OPS again?

 

I don't know how you say trading Dozier for a position of need is short sighted... If anything it is too long sighted!

[DaveW]

I think the Law hates the Twins thing goes back maybe 5 years, but I haven't seen much indicating that's true in the last two or three years.

It was never even a real thing, it was a tongue in cheek meme back in the BYTO days. Law used to bash the twins for all the pitch to contact guys (like when Blackburn was our number 1 prospect) and most everyone agreed with him. It was just a fun bit.

[DaveW]

I think you're reading too much into this. Klaw has always been the low guy on Berrios - hell, he's admitted it in his chats. Nothing wrong with it.

Yeah, he has always said Berrios ceiling is closer to a #2 then an ace, which I personally agree with. A lot of people are hyping up Berrios to be the next Santana, and I think those people will be dissapointed if he falls short. I will be happy if he ends up as the next Garza (before his meltdown the last couple years)

[DaveW]

Fans who underrate him are solely looking at his strikeout total. Not a whole lot of guys throw 96+ and have the size/athleticism to throw 100 pitches a game.

 

To paraphrase the write-up, Klaw says even if the strikeout totals don't improve a ton, he has an extremely high ceiling

Yeah the hand wringing, worrying, and wanting to trade Stewart on these boards leaves me a bit puzzled.

 

I think part of it is because the Twins really haven't ever drafted HS pitchers in the first round, so we aren't accustomed to the longer development curves, Stewart is still our best bet in the system for a bonafide "ace" IMO. I think he has a big year this year and cracks a lot of top 15 lists prior to 2017. The strikeouts will come, and even thus far his other numbers are very promising.

[DaveW]

For the record, I'm not saying Polanco is better than Dozier right now. What I'm saying is if we have a guy that is very close to being major league ready, and has great potential, why not sell high on Dozier? Do you really think he'll ever have a .841 OPS again?

 

I don't know how you say trading Dozier for a position of need is short sighted... If anything it is too long sighted!

I don't think Polanco will ever approach Dozier offense wise. I just don't see any good reason to trade Dozier at this stage. Second half struggles or not he is one of the best hitters on this team. The Twins should be building around him, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario and Park (if he doesn't suck) moving forward.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

It was never even a real thing, it was a tongue in cheek meme back in the BYTO days. Law used to bash the twins for all the pitch to contact guys (like when Blackburn was our number 1 prospect) and most everyone agreed with him. It was just a fun bit.

 

I'm well aware of that.  I suspect most  of the reputation came more from the snark that usually came with the evaluations. They had a pretty bad farm system back then...

[alarp33]

 

I'm not sure about the Sonny Gray comp. Following up, it looks like the 2012 season you cite was his first full season in pro ball and it was AA ball, at that. So who knows how he was coached or what he was told to work on.
 

 

True - but Gray also was coming from Vanderbilt, one of premier college teams for pitcher development, and was 22 years old at the time.  Stewart will pitch THIS year at 21