Article: The Twins' Next Hall Of Famer

[Willihammer]

 

http://www.billjamesonline.com/where_are_the_great_catchers_/

Great read. I'd be very curious to hear from the Mauer-haters out there any theories as to why the best catchers in history, by WAR, don't stack up at all against the best players of other positions (by WAR). And if WAR is broken, what alternative metric(s) should be used when considering HoF credentials for catchers.

[Shane Wahl]

 

Yes, in the Twins HOF, but not in MLB's

 

Again, laughter ensues here.

A Mauer article gets them out of the woodwork every time. Every time.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

While Mauer's HOF credentials have been tarnished by his post-concussion performance, he had 8 solid years as a catcher.  However, I think that his 2011 year is a bigger black mark than the past two post-concussion years.  

 

 

 

In 2011, all Mauer did was post an OPS+ of 102 while fighting injury. And if we're describing his performance from 2004 to 2013 as merely "solid," then we might be setting the bar a little high for catchers. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Again, laughter ensues here.

A Mauer article gets them out of the woodwork every time. Every time.

Sounds like you believe Mauer is a lock to be a HOFer. What's going to be the defining stat that will entice 75% of voters to say yes? Because I don't see one.... 

[ken]

 

Great read. I'd be very curious to hear from the Mauer-haters out there any theories as to why the best catchers in history, by WAR, don't stack up at all against the best players of other positions (by WAR). And if WAR is broken, what alternative metric(s) should be used when considering HoF credentials for catchers.

So not believing Mauer is a HOF player makes you a "Mauer-hater"?  WAR should be the only measurement of players for HOF?

 

And I get accused of coming out of the woodwork?

[Steve Lein]

3 years ago I would have said Mauer was a no brainer. But since then it's changed and I honestly think that unless he bounces back into the type of hitter (.320+ Avg., .400+ OBP) he was as a catcher, that he's not going to make it.

 

How ever many more years he plays with a ~.720 OPS at 1B is going to drop his overall numbers case off the table. I think the argument at that point would become "he was great, but not for long enough." 1 MVP season doesn't get you in either as good as it was, because it was an anomalous performance compared to the rest of his career.

 

All that said, we need the old Joe back to make this discussion silly 10 years down the road!

 

 

 

[gunnarthor]

One thing to help Mauer will be that, by the time he's on the ballot, the HOF will have gone quite a while since it last inducted a catcher.  (Assuming Pudge gets in within his first two years).  Around the time he's on the ballot, there will be a strong push to put in Yadier Molina b/c "greatest defensive catcher" stuff but Mauer will look good in that comparison.  

 

A negative for him will be that the last few catchers inducted had a lot more longevity behind the plate.  

[ALessKosherScott]

 

Sounds like you believe Mauer is a lock to be a HOFer. What's going to be the defining stat that will entice 75% of voters to say yes? Because I don't see one.... 

 

Arguably the greatest season ever by a catcher (2009)? A 129 OPS+ which is currently only topped by Piazza and Posey among full-time catchers? A eight-year run where he was historically one of the best hitting and defensive catchers ever?

 

Should we leave Santana out of the Hall of Fame too?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Arguably the greatest season ever by a catcher (2009)? A 129 OPS+ which is currently only topped by Piazza and Posey among full-time catchers? A eight-year run where he was historically one of the best hitting and defensive catchers ever?

 

Should we leave Santana out of the Hall of Fame too?

all true, but to gain the HOF cred, he needs to continue playing for several more years, and I think he will play for 5+ years. He'll have played as much or more as a first baseman, than as a catcher. Is Joe's current performance HOF worthy? Do you expect it to improve enough to be HOF worthy again.

 

I have my doubts. If he had retired rather than play through the concussion and transitioned to first base, he would have been a lock.

[Vanimal46]

 

Arguably the greatest season ever by a catcher (2009)? A 129 OPS+ which is currently only topped by Piazza and Posey among full-time catchers? A eight-year run where he was historically one of the best hitting and defensive catchers ever?

 

Should we leave Santana out of the Hall of Fame too?

2009 was a huge outlier from the rest of Mauer's career. If he had a longer stretch of dominance at C I could agree with you, but when it's all said and done he'll have those 8 great years of C, and 6-7 years of below average 1B production under his belt.

Yes I would absolutely leave Santana out of the Hall of Fame too.. He was on pace to be one, but injuries derailed his career. 

Both players are very good, and will be remembered by Twins fans for their great run here, but neither had the longevity to be locks for the HOF. 

[ALessKosherScott]

 

all true, but to gain the HOF cred, he needs to continue playing for several more years, and I think he will play for 5+ years. He'll have played as much or more as a first baseman, than as a catcher. 

 

Dizzy Dean is in the Hall of Fame. Sandy Koufax is in the Hall of Fame. Bill Dickey is in the Hall of Fame. 

 

Would you rather have a player who's truly elite for 7 years? Or one who's simply pretty good for 15? Any GM worth his salt is going take the former.  And Mauer masquerading as a first basemen shouldn't hold him back anymore than Johnny Bench's lost time as a third baseman did. No catcher is built to last. We may never see a catcher who can hit and defend the way Mauer did in his prime again.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

Yes I would absolutely leave Santana out of the Hall of Fame too.. He was on pace to be one, but injuries derailed his career. 

 

 

So you're saying you'd leave Sandy Koufax out of the Hall of Fame too?

[Vanimal46]

 

Dizzy Dean is in the Hall of Fame. Sandy Koufax is in the Hall of Fame. Bill Dickey is in the Hall of Fame. 

 

Would you rather have a player who's truly elite for 7 years? Or one who's simply pretty good for 15? Any GM worth his salt is going take the former.  And Mauer masquerading as a first basemen shouldn't hold him back anymore than Johnny Bench's lost time as a third baseman did. No catcher is built to last. We may never see a catcher who can hit and defend the way Mauer did in his prime again.

Um, what? Can we return to a time after 1950 please with examples? 

You're right, any GM is going to want a truly elite player for a shorter amount of time. They're not the ones voting for the HOF, so not sure what that has to do with it. 

Johnny Bench played 15 seasons primarily as a C.... Joe still has 8. 

Edited January 15, 2016 by Vanimal46

[Vanimal46]

 

So you're saying you'd leave Sandy Koufax out of the Hall of Fame too?

Sandy Koufax was a generational talent that set records in nearly every category of that era. And still among the all-time greats in strikeouts, winning percentage, ERA, etc. 

How exactly does this relate back to Santana? What statistic does he have that comes close to Koufax?

[gunnarthor]

Obviously, part of this is peak v. longevity.  Guys like Mauer, Santana, Utley, Nomar had amazing peaks and I think the HOF voters should like that more than longevity.  I've complained about all the support Tim Raines is getting - he only had 6 4 WAR+ seasons and just played forever.  Mauer, Santana et al had more/better 6 seasons.  Why should Raines be considered a HOF for all those non-HOF caliber years?

[ALessKosherScott]

 

Sandy Koufax was a generational talent that set records in nearly every category of that era. And still among the all-time greats in strikeouts, winning percentage, ERA, etc. 

How exactly does this relate back to Santana? What statistic does he have that comes close to Koufax?

 

Santana's run from 2003 to 2009 is every bit as dominant in its time as Koufax's run from 1961 to 1966.

[gunnarthor]

 

Sandy Koufax was a generational talent that set records in nearly every category of that era. And still among the all-time greats in strikeouts, winning percentage, ERA, etc. 

How exactly does this relate back to Santana? What statistic does he have that comes close to Koufax?

Both played 12 seasons and compiled nearly the same amount of WAR although Koufax threw about 300 more innings.  Both had 4 seasons of 7+ WAR.  Both led all players in WAR one year while Santana led pitcher WAR 3x to Koufax 2x.  Both led the league in WHIP 4x.  While Koufax had the best two seasons, Santana wasn't that far behind.  

[Vanimal46]

 

Both played 12 seasons and compiled nearly the same amount of WAR although Koufax threw about 300 more innings.  Both had 4 seasons of 7+ WAR.  Both led all players in WAR one year while Santana led pitcher WAR 3x to Koufax 2x.  Both led the league in WHIP 4x.  While Koufax had the best two seasons, Santana wasn't that far behind.  

Maybe Santana gets the Koufax rule and is voted in for his dominant stretch in his career. Who knows. Koufax probably got voted in for being a legend, "The Left Arm of God". Does Santana have a legendary status outside of Minnesota fans to get the same respect to be voted in?  

[ALessKosherScott]

 

Maybe Santana gets the Koufax rule and is voted in for his dominant stretch in his career. Who knows. Koufax probably got voted in for being a legend, "The Left Arm of God". Does Santana have a legendary status outside of Minnesota fans to get the same respect to be voted in?  

 

A general rule of thumb is that anybody who was the best pitcher in baseball over a five-year period is in the Hall of Fame, except Clemens who should be. Santana has two Cy Young trophies, so I'm pretty sure the Baseball Writers Association of America have an idea how good he was.

[dgwills]

When we were having the debate about Mauer moving to first I felt the hall of fame was on the line for him.   I don't blame him for moving, but becoming a below average first baseman that early in his career probably stops him from getting in. The same thing goes for Santana and his injuries. If they had been able to win a couple of World Series titles they may have still been able to get in. As it is now I don't see it happening. 

[ken]

 

A general rule of thumb is that anybody who was the best pitcher in baseball over a five-year period is in the Hall of Fame, except Clemens who should be. Santana has two Cy Young trophies, so I'm pretty sure the Baseball Writers Association of America have an idea how good he was.

I'm a huge Santana fan, but he'll not going into the HOF.  Koufax is a World Series hero which has a big impact voters and in a major market, big difference. Fernando Valenzula was a dominate pichers from 1981-85 and only lasted 2 years on the ballot.  I think you need a longer run than 5-8 years of great regular season play to get into the hall.

 

Mauer was a great catcher, but when you compare his career WAR to other catchers at the same level - Gene Tenace, Brian Downing, Ted Simmons, Bill Freehan - nobody's too upset than they didn't even make it to a second year on the HOF ballot.  So to think Mauer is going to make it, seems to be a long shot.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

One thing to help Mauer will be that, by the time he's on the ballot, the HOF will have gone quite a while since it last inducted a catcher.  (Assuming Pudge gets in within his first two years).  Around the time he's on the ballot, there will be a strong push to put in Yadier Molina b/c "greatest defensive catcher" stuff but Mauer will look good in that comparison.  

Until Piazza, the HOF had gone 13 years since it last inducted a catcher, but I'm not sure anyone cared all that much.

 

Assuming Mauer retires at the end of his current contract, there will only be 7 years between him and Pudge hitting the ballot.  And with the overall backlog and steroids era issues, I wouldn't be so confident that Pudge sails in that quickly.  Posada might get some love at the same time as Pudge too, and Victor Martinez could hit the ballot at the same time as Mauer.

[Steve Lein]

 

Obviously, part of this is peak v. longevity.  Guys like Mauer, Santana, Utley, Nomar had amazing peaks and I think the HOF voters should like that more than longevity.  I've complained about all the support Tim Raines is getting - he only had 6 4 WAR+ seasons and just played forever.  Mauer, Santana et al had more/better 6 seasons.  Why should Raines be considered a HOF for all those non-HOF caliber years?

 

Raines checks quite a few boxes for me given what he was:

 

-100+ runs 6 times (led league twice)

-50+SB 8 times, 70+ 6 times (and 49 another year, led league 4 times, as a leadoff hitter)

-.300+ AVG 8 times (one batting title)

-.370+ OBP 15 times (led league once)

-160+ hits 8 times (as a leadoff hitter)

-60+ BB 13 times (as a leadoff hitter)

-Struck out more times than he walked just ONE season of 23 (1330 to 966 overall career ratio, as a leadoff hitter)

 

Raines' case is built on being one of the best leadoff hitters of all time taking into account all the traits of them that are desirable: High average, got on base, scored runs, stole bases, etc...

 

I'd call his case a very legit one.

 

 

 

[ALessKosherScott]

 

I'm a huge Santana fan, but he'll not going into the HOF.  Koufax is a World Series hero which has a big impact voters and in a major market, big difference. Fernando Valenzula was a dominate pichers from 1981-85 and only lasted 2 years on the ballot.  I think you need a longer run than 5-8 years of great regular season play to get into the hall.

 

Mauer was a great catcher, but when you compare his career WAR to other catchers at the same level - Gene Tenace, Brian Downing, Ted Simmons, Bill Freehan - nobody's too upset than they didn't even make it to a second year on the HOF ballot.  So to think Mauer is going to make it, seems to be a long shot.

 

Yeah. Comping Santana, who finished with a career ERA+ of 136, to Valenzuela, who had one season in his career with an ERA+ better than 136, doesn't seem exactly right.  If you had gone Hal Newhauser, maybe. But Newhauser is in the Hall of Fame.

 

Simmons and Freehan are guys who you hear a lot of outcry should be in the Hall of Fame, and Mauer is a better hitter than both and had more of an impact with his glove than at least Simmons (who had a bad defensive reputation) and possibly Freehan. Bill Dickey is a pretty good comp for Mauer's catching career. And again, he's in the Hall of Fame.

 

I think if we want to talk about putting Torii Hunter in the Hall of Fame, that's where I have a problem. Hanging around for 17 years to put up counting stats doesn't make you a great player. Having truly great years does. For the record, Puckett is light years above Hunter as the franchise's best center fielder.

[ken]

 

Yeah. Comping Santana, who finished with a career ERA+ of 136, to Valenzuela, who had one season in his career with an ERA+ better than 136, doesn't seem exactly right.  If you had gone Hal Newhauser, maybe. But Newhauser is in the Hall of Fame.

 

Simmons and Freehan are guys who you hear a lot of outcry should be in the Hall of Fame, and Mauer is a better hitter than both and had more of an impact with his glove than at least Simmons (who had a bad defensive reputation) and possibly Freehan. Bill Dickey is a pretty good comp for Mauer's catching career. And again, he's in the Hall of Fame.

 

I think if we want to talk about putting Torii Hunter in the Hall of Fame, that's where I have a problem. Hanging around for 17 years to put up counting stats doesn't make you a great player. Having truly great years does. For the record, Puckett is light years above Hunter as the franchise's best center fielder.

I agree on Puckett, 2 World Series rings are a big plus for the HOF.  Which I also think give the additional nod to Bill Dickey (8 rings) and Koufax for the HOF.

 

The Fernando reference is to your general rule about being the best pitcher over 5 years and getting into the HOF.  Santana doesn't have any big moments that voters are going to remember to vote him in, I don't think there is much of a chance he would get 75% of the voters.

 

I think we'll be able to add Mauer to the outcry for Simmons and Freehan.  Based on there vote totals, the outcry wasn't too loud.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

I agree on Puckett, 2 World Series rings are a big plus for the HOF.  Which I also think give the additional nod to Bill Dickey (8 rings) and Koufax for the HOF.

 

The Fernando reference is to your general rule about being the best pitcher over 5 years and getting into the HOF.  Santana doesn't have any big moments that voters are going to remember to vote him in, I don't think there is much of a chance he would get 75% of the voters.

 

I think we'll be able to add Mauer to the outcry for Simmons and Freehan.  Based on there vote totals, the outcry wasn't too loud.

 

I think my point was that you were reaching to call Fernando Valenzuela the "best pitcher in baseball" in the early 80s. Statistically, Steve Carlton was the best pitcher in baseball in the early 80s. And there probably wasn't another consistent "Best Pitcher In Baseball" for multiple years until Clemens came along in '86. 

 

And IMO, there's two very clear moments for Santana which are Cy Young awards on his shelf (plus another three you could have gave him). With Mauer, it's a very clear MVP award that he deserved plus one in theory he deserved over Morneau in 2006. 

 

The Bill James HOF checklist states if you can make a clear case for any player being the best player it the game at their position over a stretch of years, odds are they're Hall of Famers. 

 

 

[SweetOne69]

I am pretty sure I read an article about Piazza choosing to go in as a Met and another about Griffey choosing to go in as a Mariner. in fact, Piaza talked to Lasorda about it before picking the Mets cap. I believe they do have a choice.

Here is a snippet I found from a 2010 hof article:

 

The choice of which team logo appears on a player’s plaque is the Museum’s decision, though the wishes of an inductee are always considered. As the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum is a history museum, it is important that the logo be emblematic of where the player made his greatest impact. A player’s election to the Hall of Fame, however, is a career achievement. As such, every team for whom he played is listed on the plaque.

[jimmer]

The HOF technically has the final say, but the Hall consults with the players and take into account, heavily, the players wishes.

 

'The cap decisions were announced after consultation with the Hall, which has the final say.'

 

"I think I did most of my damage as a Mariner," Griffey said. "Want to be the first in a lot of things, and to be able to wear a Mariners hat and to go into the Hall of Fame as a Mariner, that's also one of the decisions I needed to make.'

 

'Piazza spoke Wednesday night about his choice with former Dodgers manager Tommy Lasorda, whose recommendation led to the team drafting him. "Unfortunately we do have to choose one," Piazza said. "For me, I always sort of enjoyed reconnecting here in New York."

 

I've never heard of the Hall picking against the players' wishes.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14524076/ken-griffey-jr-wear-seattle-mariners-cap-mike-piazza-gets-new-york-mets-hall-fame-induction

 

Edited January 16, 2016 by jimmer

[ken]

 

I think my point was that you were reaching to call Fernando Valenzuela the "best pitcher in baseball" in the early 80s. Statistically, Steve Carlton was the best pitcher in baseball in the early 80s. And there probably wasn't another consistent "Best Pitcher In Baseball" for multiple years until Clemens came along in '86. 

 

And IMO, there's two very clear moments for Santana which are Cy Young awards on his shelf (plus another three you could have gave him). With Mauer, it's a very clear MVP award that he deserved plus one in theory he deserved over Morneau in 2006. 

 

The Bill James HOF checklist states if you can make a clear case for any player being the best player it the game at their position over a stretch of years, odds are they're Hall of Famers. 

Is 1981-1988 considered a long enough time? Fernando #1

 

And I don't think we can rewrite the 2006 MVP voting for the HOF.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=1988&month=0&season1=1981&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[Willihammer]

 

So not believing Mauer is a HOF player makes you a "Mauer-hater"?  WAR should be the only measurement of players for HOF?

 

And I get accused of coming out of the woodwork?

1. Obviously no Twins fan has a personal hatred for Mauer or anyone else on the team (possible exception of Halsey and Plouffe).

 

2. Nobody said WAR should be the only stat. But, WAR is commonly used as a starting point for evaluating the HoF credentials of a player and it is the object of the article. WAR is the most elegant stat out there for capturing career output. But, curiously, it doesn't value a single catcher in the history of the game amongst the top ~ 45 elite players of all time.

 

3. As somewhat of a sidenote, on a WAR/162 basis, Mauer is the greatest catcher of all time.

 

4. Given #2, how should Mauer's (or any other catcher's) HoF case be considered? One option might be to abandon WAR completely in favor of another stat or more likely, combination of stats. Another option would be to re-adjust the positional component of WAR so that the elite catchers of history are valued similarly to the elite players at other positions.

Edited January 16, 2016 by Willihammer