Article: What's Left On The Market?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins got some pretty good seasons (at least as effective as Sipp's other years) out of bargain bin guys like Fien, Burton, Guerrier, Reyes, Boyer.   

Guerrier was claimed on waivers over 10 years ago.  Why not mention Tony Fiore too?

 

The Twins bullpen has been pretty terrible since TR took over again, and his biggest successes (Burton and Fien) were both acquired over 4 years ago.  Boyer had such a good season, we didn't even trust him when we were desperate for relief help down the stretch.

 

I think it's fair to question that approach, especially when the bullpen was such a big weakness and we're hoping to continue contending this year.

Edited January 6, 2016 by spycake

[USAFChief]

The Twins got some pretty good seasons (at least as effective as Sipp's other years) out of bargain bin guys like Fien, Burton, Guerrier, Reyes, Boyer.

 

Bullpens are 7 or 8 deep, and teams use 10 or more relievers in a season regularly.

 

Naming 5 "pretty good" relievers over a decade does more to disprove your point than prove it, even if we squint hard enough to declare guys like Boyer "pretty good."

[Jgcarew]

I wouldn't know if a great player was blocked. Yankees Patriots and Twins didnt't seem to know what they had behind Pipp Bledsoe and Eisenrich

[gunnarthor]

 

Bullpens are 7 or 8 deep, and teams use 10 or more relievers in a season regularly.

Naming 5 "pretty good" relievers over a decade does more to disprove your point than prove it, even if we squint hard enough to declare guys like Boyer "pretty good."

Well, sure, if we're only looking at the scrap heap - most of those other bullpen pieces were added from our own farm system and in trades, but that wasn't what this discussion was about. From 99-07 (Ryan's first run), his bullpen's were pretty much always awesome.  He has the tools to create a pretty good bullpen again, even if he doesn't spend 18m on an arm.

[TheLeviathan]

I think Ryan does a pretty good job dumpster diving on bullpen pieces.  He's pretty good at that.

 

He also overly relies on that strategy, the two aren't mutually exclusive.

[gunnarthor]

 

I think Ryan does a pretty good job dumpster diving on bullpen pieces.  He's pretty good at that.

 

He also overly relies on that strategy, the two aren't mutually exclusive.

Yeah, that could be true.  I'm not going to be upset b/c we didn't get to pay 18m for Tony Sipp's age 32-34 seasons but I would be happy if he made a play for Storen or Clippard, too.

[Thrylos]

 

This article is depressing. The umpteenth offseason in a row of trying to fill holes with stuff other teams don't want.

 

Surprised?  It has been Ryan's MO since he was promoted from Head of Scouting in 1994.

 

Business as usual.

[Thrylos]

 

I think Ryan does a pretty good job dumpster diving on bullpen pieces.  He's pretty good at that.

 

Sure.  That's why the Ryan pens brought the Twins so many post-season wins and World Championships...

[old nurse]

 

Guerrier's delayed arrival was partly due to recent surgery.

 

I wouldn't restrict yourself to looking at pitchers either -- the point is, the Twins have a history of signing MLB veterans to minor league deals that are de facto MLB deals, but give them some roster flexibility through spring training.  Burton, Sean Burroughs, Kubel, Bartlett, Guerrier, maybe even Boyer...  all signs point to Abad being in that group as well.  Most observers were surprised he "settled" for a minor league deal, which suggests it's probably a de facto MLB deal too.

IIRC Burton was effective for a couple of years. Burrows was used as bench player  and was gone by May. His spring training numbers S Burroughs   .333  17  42    2 doubles, one single would have given you some hope. Kubel had a good first month before father time discovered he was playing baseball

again,

Abad for his career has been better in low leverage situations.  I can't prove the Twins know this, but if I can find the statistics, I would think it would be reasonable to think the Twins know this.

Edited January 7, 2016 by old nurse

[nicksaviking]

Tyler Clippard's fastball is down to 91 MPH and his K/9 dropped two points last year. Teams are staying away from his demands for a reason.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Sure.  That's why the Ryan pens brought the Twins so many post-season wins and World Championships...

 

Their bullpens were actually pretty good back then.  From 2002-2008 they ranked:  9, 10, 12, 4, 1, 11, and 12th in ERA.  Hardly a track record of failure.

[PseudoSABR]

* On the hand you have: "Berrios should start in the rotation, the Twins were foolish to give out long term deals to Hughes, Nolasco and Santana" 

* On the other hand you have: "The Twins shouldn't let future prospects stop them from signing what could be stop-gap players to long term contracts"

* (These are old refrains; substitute positions and players/prospects to fit other past and future scenarios).

* I think many of the same people are professing both these contradictory beliefs.  

 

I, for one, am glad the Twins aren't interested in handing out long term contracts to relievers (or another OFer for that matter), especially after the market for relievers blew-up this winter.  

Edited January 7, 2016 by PseudoSABR

[tobi0040]

Their bullpens were actually pretty good back then. From 2002-2008 they ranked: 9, 10, 12, 4, 1, 11, and 12th in ERA. Hardly a track record of failure.

The core of those pens were Nathan, Crain, Rincon, and Romero. Before that you had Eddie and Hawkins. Almost all were home grown with the exception of Nathan. None of the core guys were bargain bin guys

Edited January 7, 2016 by tobi0040

[USAFChief]

I don't know Chief if you have to give a multi year contract who will block a valued prospect kind of ties your hands, no?

No.

[USAFChief]

* On the hand you have: "Berrios should start in the rotation, the Twins were foolish to give out long term deals to Hughes, Nolasco and Santana"

* On the other hand you have: "The Twins shouldn't let future prospects stop them from signing what could be stop-gap players to long term contracts"

* (These are old refrains; substitute positions and players/prospects to fit other past and future scenarios).

* I think many of the same people are professing both these contradictory beliefs.

 

I, for one, am glad the Twins aren't interested in handing out long term contracts to relievers (or another OFer for that matter), especially after the market for relievers blew-up this winter.

 

*

Of the first three, I'd call only the Hughes extension foolish. And even that doesn't have to keep Berrios from the rotation, and likely wont for very long. If Berrios earns a shot, and doesn't get it, THAT's the foolishness, not the FA signings.

 

*I'm not asking for long term contracts to stopgap players...I'm asking for the Twins to STOP focusing on stopgaps and instead focus on adding difference makers. Your beef should be with those calling for more Boyers while we wait for the cavalry to ride in from AA.

[tobi0040]

* On the hand you have: "Berrios should start in the rotation, the Twins were foolish to give out long term deals to Hughes, Nolasco and Santana"

* On the other hand you have: "The Twins shouldn't let future prospects stop them from signing what could be stop-gap players to long term contracts"

.

I don't think this is a consensus view. Most were excited about at least a few of these signings. The disconnect is not an I told you so hindsight view, but rather a sunk cost approach regarding Nolasco. Very few are arguing Santana or Hugges should not be in the rotation

 

And I have made this comment and I have seen similar comments from others. If a really good starter costs $25m a year and Nolasco costs $12m a year, does it make sense to move a talented controlled starter to the pen because you don't want to spend 5-6m on an above average reliever? That is where a good chunk of this frustration stems from

Edited January 7, 2016 by tobi0040

[gunnarthor]

 

*
Of the first three, I'd call only the Hughes extension foolish. And even that doesn't have to keep Berrios from the rotation, and likely wont for very long. If Berrios earns a shot, and doesn't get it, THAT's the foolishness, not the FA signings.

*I'm not asking for long term contracts to stopgap players...I'm asking for the Twins to STOP focusing on stopgaps and instead focus on adding difference makers. Your beef should be with those calling for more Boyers while we wait for the cavalry to ride in from AA.

The Twins aren't using stop gaps.  They might give one or two spots to a bullpen reclamation arm.  So what?  It's not like there's only 8 spots in a bullpen.  The Twins, like most teams, will use a bunch of arms next season.  Their principle bullpen arms aren't going to be scrap heap guys.  Right now, we're arguing about the opening day LOOGY.  They'll be fine.

[PseudoSABR]

 

*I'm not asking for long term contracts to stopgap players...I'm asking for the Twins to STOP focusing on stopgaps and instead focus on adding difference makers. Your beef should be with those calling for more Boyers while we wait for the cavalry to ride in from AA.

There is a point where the supposed difference-maker is cost prohibitive given his likelihood of difference-making.   Are O'Day or Soria difference-makers vis-a-vis their costs?  Is a set-up guy really ever a difference-maker?  I understand the notion that cost prohibitive shouldn't be in a revenue-making team's vocabulary, but I think the Twins can still get value in regard to the reliever market.  

 

The Twins actually do have Perkins and Jepsen; they aren't looking to makeover the bullpen, they need to fill it out (and only *perhaps* until arms in the farm arrive).  While the Yankees address the back of their bullpen and ignore everything else, I'm still glad the Twins aren't in the bull's market on relievers.  There could be a time where they should be, but given so many unknowns going into the season (with all the hope there is), the Twins should be reserved in spending on what looks like part-time players--that third-best reliever, or that center-fielder who eventually must get displaced by Buxton.

Edited January 7, 2016 by PseudoSABR

[PseudoSABR]

 

I don't think this is a consensus view.

I don't either.  But there are passionate people at the fringe of consensus that commit something close to doublespeak in regard to free agent spending and prospect promotion.   Not that you or Chief are among those people.  But like I suggested in my post, there's refrain of compliant here.

Edited January 7, 2016 by PseudoSABR

[TheLeviathan]

 

The core of those pens were Nathan, Crain, Rincon, and Romero. Before that you had Eddie and Hawkins. Almost all were home grown with the exception of Nathan. None of the core guys were bargain bin guys

 

I was responding to the absurd contention that Ryan's bullpens had been our issue winning a world series.  That blame would fall on utterly choking time and time again.

 

But Ryan's bullpens have rarely been the team's weak point.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

* On the hand you have: "Berrios should start in the rotation, the Twins were foolish to give out long term deals to Hughes, Nolasco and Santana" 

* On the other hand you have: "The Twins shouldn't let future prospects stop them from signing what could be stop-gap players to long term contracts"

First of all, one more Jepsen-type reliever is a stop-gap player?  That player might simply be Jepsen's replacement come 2017.

 

Second of all, while I am not necessarily making both of the points as stated here, they are also not necessarily contradictory.  One could argue that the expense of the starters, and the limit of the 5-man rotation, is still a vastly greater commitment than adding a 3/18 type FA reliever right now would be.  One could also argue that signing those starters, while making a logjam on paper, made it more likely we'd ultimately field a competent top 5, and that approach should be applied to the bullpen.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There is a point where the supposed difference-maker is cost prohibitive given his likelihood of difference-making.   Are O'Day or Soria difference-makers vis-a-vis their costs?

Why are the most expensive relievers always trotted out in this argument?  Mark Lowe signed for 2/11, with an AL Central team that finished behind us in the standings, no less.  There was no indication that the Twins pursued him.  He's not as sure of a bet as O'Day, but he's got some recent demonstrated MLB upside and was easily a worthwhile gamble around that price.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins actually do have Perkins and Jepsen; they aren't looking to makeover the bullpen, they need to fill it out (and only *perhaps* until arms in the farm arrive).

And the Twins bullpen, with Perkins and Jepsen (and May) was still somewhat deficient at the end of 2015.  And Jepsen will become one of these FA relievers in a year if not extended, Perkins has some lingering question marks, and May might be needed or better deployed in the rotation.

 

There is ample room to add another arm to the top of the bullpen mix, without blocking any arms on the farm (none of which, by the way, are likely ready to contribute out of the pen from day 1 in 2016).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins aren't using stop gaps.  They might give one or two spots to a bullpen reclamation arm.  So what?  It's not like there's only 8 spots in a bullpen.  The Twins, like most teams, will use a bunch of arms next season.  Their principle bullpen arms aren't going to be scrap heap guys.  Right now, we're arguing about the opening day LOOGY.  They'll be fine.

Huh, I could have sworn that even with Jepsen, May, and Cotts, are bullpen was still suspect at the end of the 2015 season, with the likes of O'Rourke vs RHB and Graham blowing close games, and TR even flagged the pen as an area of need.  I had no idea that complete inactivity (maybe even subtraction so far, given Abad's struggles vs LHB as compared to Cotts) would render our bullpen "fine" just a few offseason months later...

[IndyTwinsFan]

I have a hard time seeing how TR is not just biding his time until the AA power arms are ready to prove themselves (in his or the organization's mind, not ours). Whether or not the relative lack of action on the MLB roster front is obviously subject to debate.

 

I also think we need to consider that when he calls the pen a weak spot, the action being targeted are likely a lot less than most of us want to or would like to see.

 

Frustrating, most definitely! But certainly not out of character. While I would also like to to see something positive on the Store or Clippard front, I'm not holding my breath waiting for or anticipating that happening.

[jimmer]

 

Huh, I could have sworn that even with Jepsen, May, and Cotts, are bullpen was still suspect at the end of the 2015 season, with the likes of O'Rourke vs RHB and Graham blowing close games, and TR even flagged the pen as an area of need.  I had no idea that complete inactivity (maybe even subtraction so far, given Abad's struggles vs LHB as compared to Cotts) would render our bullpen "fine" just a few offseason months later...

It doesn't.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'm bullish on the bullpen. Your mileage may vary. I thought that the bullpen would improve for 2016 simply by doing nothing (namely, parting ways with Boyer, Duensing and maybe even Fien), but that's provided smart decisions are made going forward about the other guys. I'm optimistic about guys like Pressly, Burdi, and Meyer, if not on Day 1 then soon after. I'm partial to O'Rourke in a LOOGY role, big league slider and 38% K rate against lefties, though Molitor justifiably lost confidence in him after that Yankee series. Tonkin has a career ERA of 3.35 but its more like 12.94 in games I've watched him. Throw in Chargois and whoever else you want, and it gets even more crowded. 

 

I think there is enough in the system to give us good choices, but there is certainly room for a high quality sign or trade, too.

 

 

 

 

[Thrylos]

 

Their bullpens were actually pretty good back then.  From 2002-2008 they ranked:  9, 10, 12, 4, 1, 11, and 12th in ERA.  Hardly a track record of failure.

 

Other than that 4 and 1, I see mediocrity and horribleness.

Last time I checked, Ryan has been the GM since 1994 and a bit longer than 2002-2008...

[jimmer]

 

Other than that 4 and 1, I see mediocrity and horribleness.

Last time I checked, Ryan has been the GM since 1994 and a bit longer than 2002-2008...

the good years are the only ones that count :-)  '94-'00 were the short-time rebuilding years :-)

Edited January 8, 2016 by jimmer

[ken]

 

Other than that 4 and 1, I see mediocrity and horribleness.

Last time I checked, Ryan has been the GM since 1994 and a bit longer than 2002-2008...

According to fangraphs, from 2002 to 2008, the Twins bullpen was ranked 3rd.  Relief pitchers are up and down, but looking at a longer time period, they have an overall excellent ranking.

 

With relief pitching, I think going young is the best way. Develop your own talent and if you have to sign veterans, either be a star closer or 1 year contacts.  Otherwise you are wasting roster space and money.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2008&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0