Twins Lose Zack Jones in Rule 5

[sane09]

 

 

 That should be enough to hire three or four more beer guys at Target field.

But if we don't protect them on the 40-man roster, we could lose them to the brewers.

[Mike Sixel]

Name the last starter that was a bad starter, that they successfully turned into a RP, please. Certainly not Rogers, even though they needed RP last September.....nor Hendriks, nor, um, anyone since Perkins, right?

 

May was a good starter......

[TheLeviathan]

 

Given that Jones was Milwaukee's second Rule 5 pick, I expect Jones to be returned to the Twins at some point next season.  The hand-wringing over this is probably much ado about nothing.  

 

I feel like it will go down like this:

 

TR: We want Zach Jones back and we want Lucroy

Mil GM: We want Buxton

TR: Ok, you give us Jones and Lucroy and Miller Lite and we'll give you Buxton.  And then we'll give you a grain belt.

Mil GM: Ok

TR: Then we'll give you back the Miller Lite and you give us Buxton.

Mil Gm: Ugh...ok

TR: Then we'll give you the Miller Lite and we'll take the Grain Belt.  Nice trading!

[d-mac]

 

I don't agree with all the moves the Twins made to the 40 man but it's a bit much to suggest they have no idea how to manage a 40 man roster.

 

My viewpoint is that the Twins are focusing on 2016, as they should. Guys like Dean - who I wouldn't have kept were it my decision - are likely viewed as three month placeholders, insurance policies in case something goes terribly wrong in April or May of next season. After that point, the org shouldn't hesitate to replace them with the real prospects in the system who might be able to help: Burdi, Berrios, etc.

 

Again, it's likely we reach the same point in June of 2016 no matter who is kept in December of 2015.

 

Or hell, maybe the Twins sign a reliever next week and Dean is off the 40 man.

 

Then why protect him? A lot would have to go wrong before Dean sees any meaningful time in the majors. 

[d-mac]

 

Guys like Dean (and even better) are available at any time off the waiver wire if things go terribly wrong.

 

Dean is seriously like 9th or 10th on the SP depth chart at this point, if things go that horribly wrong the Twins are better off bringing in a Chris Young type off the waiver wire.

 

Listen, Jones may never do anything in the bigs, but his upside is at least that of a "closer" if he can figure it out, you can't teach arm speed and you can't teach strike outs.

 

Dean will likely never do anything in the bigs as well, but his upside is "spot starter"

 

I'd say Dean's upside is "cup-of-coffee," below replacement level LOOGY.

[sane09]

A name from the past.

The Johan Santana trade just keeps on giving......

 

From the Rule 5 draft today:

9. Los Angeles Angels: Deolis Guerra, RHP, Pirates

 

The Twins lost NOBODY and gained NOBODY in the minor league portion.

That's much better than some other teams who lost several players

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Or hell, maybe the Twins sign a reliever next week and Dean is off the 40 man.

In that case, why not protect Jones instead, so in the event you fail to sign a reliever, Jones can compete for a bullpen spot in 2016?  I don't know that we would really want Dean competing for a pen spot regardless.

 

I don't think it's a huge deal, but I think it's a question worth discussing. I'd also bet dollars to donuts that Dean isn't the one sacrificed if we sign another MLB FA this winter.

[d-mac]

 

Yeah, mentioned Dean later in the thread, forgot about him initially.

 

I would have kept Jones before Dean and wouldn't have thought too hard about it... But that's not a positive for Jones as much as it's a negative for Dean.

 

Ultimately, I don't think it matters one bit.

 

I agree that in a vacuum this is not going to matter one bit, neither is probably going to get more than a cup of coffee. Why it does matter is because it has become a recurring theme every year when roster decisions are made and we are left scratching our heads wondering why we are protecting player X, when player Y is lost through waivers or Rule 5. Player X tends to be some non-prospect approaching 30, whose upside is AAA depth and player Y is a mid-to-low level prospect with some upside left. 

 

Jones gets K's and throws hard, but has control problems. Dean is older and does nothing well. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Let me try some quick mental math:

 

21 teams (+Milwaukee in the 1st round) didn't take Zach Jones when they could have.

 

21*40+36=896

 

We are lamenting the loss of the 896th (at best) most highly regarded (by all of the actual MLB front offices) 40-man roster player.

I know it was quick mental math, but it doesn't really work that way.  The teams that passed on Jones today were not simply passing on him for their 40-man rosters, they were passing on him for a guaranteed 25-man roster spot for all of 2016.  That's the way Rule 5 works.

 

Plenty of teams may have valued Jones around #30 on their own 40-man roster, but didn't want the inflexibility of guaranteeing him a spot in their top 25 all season.

 

Not saying Jones is all that valuable, by definition Rule 5 picks pretty much aren't, but I just didn't think this was an accurate representation of how teams might value him.

[sane09]

Name the last starter that was a bad starter, that they successfully turned into a RP, please. Certainly not Rogers, even though they needed RP last September.....nor Hendriks, nor, um, anyone since Perkins, right?

 

May was a good starter......

From Aaron Gleeman (ignoring time frame)

"the list of prominent Twins relievers who began their careers as starters also includes Matt Guerrier, Juan Rincon, J.C. Romero, Mike Trombley, Al Worthington, LaTroy Hawkins, and Brian Duensing. In fact, of the 14 pitchers in Twins history to make at least 250 appearances as relievers all but one of them started before they relieved, with Jesse Crain being the lone exception"

[nicksaviking]

 

Let me try some quick mental math:

 

21 teams (+Milwaukee in the 1st round) didn't take Zach Jones when they could have.

 

21*40+36=896

 

We are lamenting the loss of the 896th (at best) most highly regarded (by all of the actual MLB front offices) 40-man roster player.

 

 

894. You're forgetting that we have come to the consensus that Jones was better than Fien and Dean.

[DaveW]

 

I know it was quick mental math, but it doesn't really work that way.  The teams that passed on Jones today were not simply passing on him for their 40-man rosters, they were passing on him for a guaranteed 25-man roster spot for all of 2016.  That's the way Rule 5 works.

 

Plenty of teams may have valued Jones around #30 on their own 40-man roster, but didn't want the inflexibility of guaranteeing him a spot in their top 25 all season.

 

Not saying Jones is all that valuable, by definition Rule 5 picks pretty much aren't, but I just didn't think this was an accurate representation of how teams might value him.

Exactly, any team with playoff aspirations wouldn't bring a guy like Jones in, but rebuilding clubs like Atlanta, Milwaukee etc would bring him in.

[nicksaviking]

Any chance our reaction to this is in any small part due to the inaction and thus dearth of things to discuss during these Winter Meetings?

[sane09]

I agree that in a vacuum this is not going to matter one bit

Did the Rule 5 losses of Roberto Clemente, Johan Santana and Josh Hamilton "matter one bit"?

[DaveW]

 

Did the Rule 5 losses of Roberto Clemente, Johan Santana and Josh Hamilton "matter one bit"?

Exactly, people said the same thing when Ortiz was let go as well "this isn't going to matter one bit, Matt Lecroy will equal anything he could do"

[ThejacKmp]

 

That would fly in the face of the trend to use ONLY gas-throwers in MLB bullpens.
Pat Dean may pass gas, but he can't throw it!

 

Ha.

 

Glen Perkins K/9 as a starter was in the mid to low 4s but jumped to 10 in the pen.  Liam Hendricks went form around 6.0 to around 10.0. Mariano Rivera was in the mid 6s and then jumped to 8.0-9.0 as a reliever.

 

To look at the other side, Mike Pelfrey's went from 5.1 to 3.9.

 

Point is, we have no idea what Pat Dean the reliever will look like but to say he won't be able to strike people out is crazy.  His K/9 has been around 5.0.

[sane09]

Rumor is that Pat Dean's DNA test from "ancestry.com" proves that his Great-Grandfather was the third brother of Dizzy and Daffy Dean.
The Great-Grandfather's name was Doofus Dean.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Did the Rule 5 losses of Roberto Clemente, Johan Santana and Josh Hamilton "matter one bit"?

 

Decades ago examples....the baseball world has completely changed since those first two happened, and the third had some major issues, right?

 

Of course it can matter.......but there is an article on FG that talks about the odds of it mattering, and the value these guys generally bring.

 

I would have not protected Dean, and kept Jones, but I'm not liking the odds of it mattering all that much. It does, imo, show that the FO and I have a very different idea of what type of RP to protect, and how to convert SP into RP. Given their lack of success for the last very long time.......I might actually be correct.

[sane09]

 

better than Fien and Dean.

 

Good name for a law firm!

[DaveW]

 

Ha.

 

Glen Perkins K/9 as a starter was in the mid to low 4s but jumped to 10 in the pen.  Liam Hendricks went form around 6.0 to around 10.0. Mariano Rivera was in the mid 6s and then jumped to 8.0-9.0 as a reliever.

 

To look at the other side, Mike Pelfrey's went from 5.1 to 3.9.

 

Point is, we have no idea what Pat Dean the reliever will look like but to say he won't be able to strike people out is crazy.  His K/9 has been around 5.0.

Dean doesn't throw hard though...

 

Also if Dean had a shot to be a RP, why didn't the Twins already convert him? He clearly has no shot at being in the major league starting rotation, so why keep starting him at AAA?

[ThejacKmp]

 

I'd say Dean's upside is "cup-of-coffee," below replacement level LOOGY.

 

What do you base this on? Tell us more? Or is this just a guess? Because then I guess he wins the Cy Young as a closer in 2018 and its just as valid!

 

Plenty of guys have Dean's track record and become useful major league relievers who sign long term contracts or even go to the Hall of Fame. No one is saying he's going to actually make the Hall but to say his upside is cup-of-coffee is ludicrous. Plenty of failed AAAA starters have become very good relievers with spiking K/9 rates. Dean has a fastball which sits in the low-to-mid 90s so if he adds 2-3MPH pitching in shorter stints (not everyone does this but many do) he may be able to join that number. He also throws four pitches as a starter so concentrating on just 2 or 3 may also help him in short stints.

 

Dean also does not profile as a LOOGY since he has relatively decent splits (in 2015 LH hit .218 off him and RH hit .269). In fairness, he did give up all ten HRs to righties so there may be some slugging issues but increased velocity and not throwing four pitches might help with that and it isn't like righties are hitting .310 off him so its a decent omen of potential success.  (Couldn't find better stats there but they don't DQ him by any means).

 

Pat Dean is intriguing which is not surprising - by definition, most successful AAA starters (especially lefties) are interesting as relief candidates. For sure no guarantees but there is a lot of potential there.

[clutterheart]

 

Yeah, mentioned Dean later in the thread, forgot about him initially.

 

I would have kept Jones before Dean and wouldn't have thought too hard about it... But that's not a positive for Jones as much as it's a negative for Dean.

 

Ultimately, I don't think it matters one bit.

 

Last year Twins chose Wheeler over Gilmartin.

Gilmartin had a nice year in the pen as a LOOGY for the Mets while the Twins struggled to find a LH bullpen guy all year.  Wheeler was DFA'ed.

 

This year the Twisn Chose Dean over Jones

Dean is a lefty who does poorly vs LH hitters.  Jones is a question mark.  

 

 

 

[USMCTwin]

 

Exactly, any team with playoff aspirations wouldn't bring a guy like Jones in, but rebuilding clubs like Atlanta, Milwaukee etc would bring him in.

 

Actually Atlanta passed on him.

[DaveW]

 

What do you base this on? Tell us more? Or is this just a guess? Because then I guess he wins the Cy Young as a closer in 2018 and its just as valid!

 

Plenty of guys have Dean's track record and become useful major league relievers who sign long term contracts or even go to the Hall of Fame. No one is saying he's going to actually make the Hall but to say his upside is cup-of-coffee is ludicrous. Plenty of failed AAAA starters have become very good relievers with spiking K/9 rates. Dean has a fastball which sits in the low-to-mid 90s so if he adds 2-3MPH pitching in shorter stints (not everyone does this but many do) he may be able to join that number. He also throws four pitches as a starter so concentrating on just 2 or 3 may also help him in short stints.

 

Dean also does not profile as a LOOGY since he has relatively decent splits (in 2015 LH hit .218 off him and RH hit .269). In fairness, he did give up all ten HRs to righties so there may be some slugging issues but increased velocity and not throwing four pitches might help with that and it isn't like righties are hitting .310 off him so its a decent omen of potential success.  (Couldn't find better stats there but they don't DQ him by any means).

 

Pat Dean is intriguing which is not surprising - by definition, most successful AAA starters (especially lefties) are interesting as relief candidates. For sure no guarantees but there is a lot of potential there.

Is it possible that a 27 year old Dean suddenly becomes a worthwhile RP while adding some speed, strikeouts etc to an up to this point medicore career in the minors? Sure

 

But I would like to think it would be more possible that a guy who is already striking out 12 guys per 9 innings in the minors could become a worthwhile major league RP

[DaveW]

 

 

Actually Atlanta passed on him.

I realize that, I meant a "rebuilding team " like the Brewers or Atlanta would be interested in a guy they would just have to stash. (No contender is going to pick up Jones and stash him all year)

[ThejacKmp]

 

Dean doesn't throw hard though...

 

Also if Dean had a shot to be a RP, why didn't the Twins already convert him? He clearly has no shot at being in the major league starting rotation, so why keep starting him at AAA?

 

Throws in the low-to-mid 90s. If he adds 2-3MPH to his fastball that makes him an intriguing guy. He also throws four pitches as a starter so losing one or two of those may help too.

 

The Twins didn't try to convert him earlier because the rotation was anything but solid coming into last year - it took them a while to see they wouldn't need him. Santana was out a half year, Pelfrey was Mike Freaking Pelfrey, no one was sure what Berrios would do, Nolasco was hurt, May was uncertain, etc.  As it was the Twins ended up dipping into AAA a lot. May, Milone, Duffey. To say they never would've needed Dean is crazy, they probably came pretty close, he wasn't pitching poorly.

 

And then by the time the Twins started seeing that Dean was going to be pretty far down the list this year, it was pretty late in the season. A team isn't going to mess with a guy, especially since the Red Wings were on the fringe of the Wild Card until the last few weeks and Dean was a solid starter. Much better to wait until the offseason and have him start ramping up as a reliever. Its the same thing they did with Taylor Rogers, who will have a decent shot to make the pen this year.

[Squirrel]

 

Any chance our reaction to this is in any small part due to the inaction and thus dearth of things to discuss during these Winter Meetings?

Most astute post there.

[sane09]

The Yankees lost SEVEN players in Rule 5.
The #2 and #3 picks in the MLB portion and FIVE players in the Minor league portion.
Gotta love Rule 5!

[ThejacKmp]

 

Is it possible that a 27 year old Dean suddenly becomes a worthwhile RP while adding some speed, strikeouts etc to an up to this point medicore career in the minors? Sure

 

But I would like to think it would be more possible that a guy who is already striking out 12 guys per 9 innings in the minors could become a worthwhile major league RP

 

Not totally disagreeing with you at all. On paper I'd choose the younger guy who has had success as a reliever. But baseball is more than paper - I trust the Twins coaching staff to say "This Pat Dean guy might have some potential" and decide to stick with him. I also trust them to say "While we like Zach Jones we think he's a way away and we don't see him really coming back to haunt us if he is chosen - which isn't a given.  Plus, we might get him back even if he is picked."

 

I guess my point is that when the margins are this close (and they are, Zach Jones is a ways away and Pat Dean has some real potential as a reliever), I think we have to side with the professionals who watch these guys day in and day out. Not saying you can't ever get upset or that it isn't worth talking about (it certainly is if only so I can drive myself crazy trying to find Pat Dean split stats) but to be so definite about how awful of a decision it is seems like a knee jerk reaction that is easier made from afar. Trust the Twins minor league staff, I think they're pretty darn good at their jobs.

[dxpavelka]

 

Honest question, if it wasn't a surprise to the Twins, why did they leave him unprotected?

 

Frankly I would have rather had Jones in the org still then Fien locked into a bullpen spot.

Honest answer.  Obviously they had other guys they had more interest in protecting and less interest in losing.

Honest statement.  For every Johan Santana selected in the Rule 5 draft there are generally about 15-20 years of guys who never approach that level.