Twins Inactive. Should Ryan be Making Moves?

[DaveW]

 

 

Yeah, I'd say Group 5 and Group 3 look largely the same to me.

Yeah, it's not hard to acquire talent through the draft when you are picking top 10 for several years in a row.

[Mike Sixel]

If people really think Torii made a HUGE difference, I don't see that gap closed at all yet.

[Major League Ready]

 

Not sure if this is your research or not, but regardless of who's it is, it's nice work, and they are points worth making.

 

My reaction to this is very much in line with DaveW's response.

 

In my opinion there are about 5 general ways organizations are run in MLB.

 

1) Acquire talent by spending huge money - Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, etc

2) Acquire talent by spending some money and trading prospects - Detroit, St Louis, Seattle, Toronto, Cubs, etc

3) Acquire talent via the draft - Houston, KC, etc

4) Movers and shakers with no fear - Tampa, Oakland, Atlanta, Miami, etc

5) The rest.

 

Depending on the year, some teams go about thing slightly differently, but the teams I've listed have been fairly consistent with their approaches.

 

The Twins are firmly in group 5. 

 

Group 5 is boring. Group 5 is frustrating. Which isn't to say that it can't work, but given the results from the last 15 years... good sometimes, bad sometimes, never great, it feels like maybe it's time to mix it up a little.

 

I feel like in the last few offseasons they've maybe tried to mix it up. Hughes, Nolasco, Santana were all brought in on free agent contracts that, at the time, were the largest we've handed out. It helped improve an atrocious rotation. But results have been I'd say average.

 

They've traded players, who were either still under team control or had very team friendly contracts (Span, Revere, Hicks). I wasn't a fan of the Hicks trade, but the jury is still out. The others I think we'd say have been relatively poor.

 

At the end of the day, we've been in group 5 for so long that management just isn't that good at dipping its toe in the other groups. 

 

Terry Ryan is used to Group 5.

Group 5 is safe.

Group 5 doesn't get people fired.

Terry Ryan is actually not bad at Group 5.

 

But is Group 5 going to get us where we all want to be?

I was curious when Dave W insisted that it was common for teams with equal or less revenue than the Twins to sign elite FA SPs so I looked into it.  Obviously, it is not at all common.  I even posted this lit with less detail but it did not stop the critics

from insisting these contracts were common.

 

There was no intention to suggest that the only way to acquire this type of SP is free agency.  It was meant to break down the one aspect that could be addressed with hard facts.  Two years ago I put up a post or at least I think I put up a post with a list of the playoff teams and the source of their SPs.  It was overwhelmingly through development or trades when the players were still minor leaguers.

 

Yes, the Twins could trade for such a SP.  As we witnessed with the Shelby Miller trade, and this is true in general, there is a substantial premium applied to “won now” deals.  That’s really the rub here.  There are a number of people on this site that put very little emphasis on anything beyond this year.  I see it literally every day as a consultant.  If we were a team with a window that is closing that might make sense.  However, we are a team that has not yet graduated our best prospects with the exception of Sano.  The scenario some want us to follow is to trade away the very assets that should make us a contender. 

 

Let’s say we traded for LeCroy and Miller. The likely cost would have been Buxton/Berrios/Kepler and a 2-4 addition good to very good prospects.  Would we be likely to win the central?  No.  We would be hoping Kansas City underperforms or is injured and Cleveland does not find any hitting and age catches up with Detroit’s key players immediately.  So, in other words, push all-in on assets with 2-3 years of control (LeCroy/Miller) and trade away the platers that could makes us a contender for the next several years for a shot at a wildcard which provides a 50/50 shot at a playoff series.   While fans scream for this kind of management, it would incredibly incompetent.

 

As for the players that only command 3-4 year deals, the twins signed arguably the best SPs of that type last year and the year before.  The premise that a team like the Twins can have $23M in dead weight with Mauer and still afford to jettison the players they have invested so heavily is a product of fanaticism.

 

[USAFChief]

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let’s say we traded for LeCroy and Miller. The likely cost would have been Buxton/Berrios/Kepler and a 2-4 addition good to very good prospects.   

We'll have to agree to disagree on the "likely cost."

[DaveW]

I was curious when Dave W insisted that it was common for teams with equal or less revenue than the Twins to sign elite FA SPs so I looked into it. Obviously, it is not at all common. I even posted this lit with less detail but it did not stop the critics

from insisting these contracts were common.

 

There was no intention to suggest that the only way to acquire this type of SP is free agency. It was meant to break down the one aspect that could be addressed with hard facts. Two years ago I put up a post or at least I think I put up a post with a list of the playoff teams and the source of their SPs. It was overwhelmingly through development or trades when the players were still minor leaguers.

 

Yes, the Twins could trade for such a SP. As we witnessed with the Shelby Miller trade, and this is true in general, there is a substantial premium applied to “won now” deals. That’s really the rub here. There are a number of people on this site that put very little emphasis on anything beyond this year. I see it literally every day as a consultant. If we were a team with a window that is closing that might make sense. However, we are a team that has not yet graduated our best prospects with the exception of Sano. The scenario some want us to follow is to trade away the very assets that should make us a contender.

 

Let’s say we traded for LeCroy and Miller. The likely cost would have been Buxton/Berrios/Kepler and a 2-4 addition good to very good prospects. Would we be likely to win the central? No. We would be hoping Kansas City underperforms or is injured and Cleveland does not find any hitting and age catches up with Detroit’s key players immediately. So, in other words, push all-in on assets with 2-3 years of control (LeCroy/Miller) and trade away the platers that could makes us a contender for the next several years for a shot at a wildcard which provides a 50/50 shot at a playoff series. While fans scream for this kind of management, it would incredibly incompetent.

 

As for the players that only command 3-4 year deals, the twins signed arguably the best SPs of that type last year and the year before. The premise that a team like the Twins can have $23M in dead weight with Mauer and still afford to jettison the players they have invested so heavily is a product of fanaticism.

FYI if you are going to put words into my mouth (which was from a different thread) at least make it somewhat accurate I said teams with the twins payroll, revenue, market etc have acquired elite players, whether that is an ace or a game changer on offense, also I said they do it through FA signings OR Trades.

 

ie the royals traded for shields three years ago and Cueto last year. The blue Jays traded for Price etc etc

[zenser]

 

You can get #2 type pitchers for less than 6 or 5 years. Iwakuma just signed for 3 years for instance.

 

 

Do you think his age was a factor in that though?  Isn't he in his mid 30s in age?

[DaveW]

Do you think his age was a factor in that though? Isn't he in his mid 30s in age?

Oh yeah, that definitely was a factor, but IMO it's well, well worth the risk.

 

I still like the idea of trying to trade for Gray or Shields, I'd like to take a run at Cueto but I think the price tag will be to high sadly after the Grienke and Price contacts. 6 years 150 mil or so. I would do 5/120 for him though in a heart beat but I think he already turned down something similar.

[bird]

 

No one said they outbid every other team for him? Yes, yes someone did.  In this thread a few posts ago.

 

'Or, one might phrase it this way: he got a catcher who is better, created an opening in the OF for a better player, and outbid every other team for a middle of the order bat'

 

 

You know what I meant, jimmer. You're quite bright. 

[Major League Ready]

 

We'll have to agree to disagree on the "likely cost."

OK.  I will bite.  What Twins prospects would be the equivalent of what AZ gave up and what would it take to get LuCroy?  I think we can start with Swanson and Buxton being equivalent.  Inciarte has 3.3 war in 132 games last year as a rookie.  It would take a very good prospect to trade for him alone.  Which Twins prospects are the equivalent of the other prospects AZ gave up?

[USAFChief]

Zack Grienke.  6 yrs, D'backs.

 

That was easy.

[Mike Sixel]

 

OK.  I will bite.  What Twins prospects would be the equivalent of what AZ gave up and what would it take to get LuCroy?  I think we can start with Swanson and Buxton being equivalent.  Which Twins prospects are the equivalent of the other prospects AZ gave up?

 

Uh, no other team on the planet gives up what AZ gave up for Miller, if that is what you are discussing.

[bird]

 

I keep seeing people talk about the Twins "needs" and how few they are and how if we don't fill those needs in the Winter Meetings, there's still plenty of time in the offseason.

I agree there is still time in the offseason, but I think we've lowered our expectations for "need".

 

The Twins need an anchor for the rotation, whether that's an ace or just a plain old #1, or a really good #2. The Twins are NEVER mentioned as being in the running for that type of pitcher.

 

All these teams making big moves and improving their team.... They didn't NEED those players. They saw an opportunity to improve their team and they took it. In their minds, actually, they DID need those players, because those are the type of players that take your team to the next level. Treading water for teams like that is tantamount to failure.

 

 

This point has been re-hashed for years, and it's certainly easy to see why we as fans yearn for a rotation anchored by a true ace. From a fan's perspective, we NEED a 1/2 starter. 

 

In my opinion, it's fair game to criticize the Twins for deciding they don't NEED a six-year $200M financial obligation. I'm not in that camp. In fact, my main bitch is that baseball has virtually severed ties with people of limited means by blending its own greed with that of the affluent  segment of its audience. So, I understand the reluctance to play in the Greinke space, but I don't excuse it given today's ticket prices, etc.

 

Frankly, I wish everyone would lower their expectations for "need".

[DaveW]

 

Zack Grienke.  6 yrs, D'backs.

 

That was easy.

Very true.

[DaveW]

 

 

Uh, no other team on the planet gives up what AZ gave up for Miller, if that is what you are discussing.

Yeah, it's an apples to oranges comparison IMO. Arizona is very very very much "all in" nobody else was going to come close to that package, good for Atlanta though and good for Arizona, it should be a fun 4-5 years for that fan base for sure!

[jimmer]

 

Uh, no other team on the planet gives up what AZ gave up for Miller, if that is what you are discussing.

If you read Cameron's Fangraphs chat from Wednesday, you'll see how ridiculous he thought it was and what he's heard from FOs around MLB about it.  Hint, they are ticked off. He also re-iterated that the DBacks FO is the worst in baseball and has been for at least a couple years now. He also gave some examples of the type of return Arizona could/should have gotten for what they gave up to get Miller.

[Major League Ready]

 

Zack Grienke.  6 yrs, D'backs.

 

That was easy.

 

 

Zack Grienke.  6 yrs, D'backs.

 

That was easy.

Just to be clear … Are you suggesting that the Twins and Diamondbacks are in the same financial position when the Dbacks just signed a TV contact that gives them absolute assurance of an addition billion dollars over the next 20 years?  Even if we accepted this as an example which is ridiculous premise, that would be the 2nd such occurrence since 2000.  If you are not willing to concede that is the definition on an anomaly than I don’t know what to say other than I would love to see you support that statement in the board room.

[DaveW]

 

 

If you read Cameron's Fangraphs chat from Wednesday, you'll see how ridiculous he thought it was and what he's heard from FOs around MLB about it.  Hint, they are ticked off. He also re-iterated that the DBacks FO is the worst in baseball and has been for at least a couple years now. He also gave some examples of the type of return Arizona could/should have gotten for what they gave up to get Miller.

While I think it was too much to give up, it's not the Arizona's GM's job to worry about other teams GM's and how "ticked off" they will be towards him for the trade.

 

I do give them credit for going "all in" now

 

With a front of the rotation featuring Greinke, Miller and Corbin they can match up with anyone in the playoffs. (Robbie Ray is no slouch as well)

 

Goldschmidt might be one of the best two or three all around hitters in baseball, Pollock is a rising star and Peralta and Castillo have great bats as well.

 

That looks like a legit contender in my eyes, and if they can win a title (or even make a world series) in the next 4-5 years then nobody cares what they gave up IMO.

[DaveW]

 

 

Just to be clear … Are you suggesting that the Twins and Diamondbacks are in the same financial position when the Dbacks just signed a TV contact that gives them absolute assurance of an addition billion dollars over the next 20 years?  Even if we accepted this as an example which is ridiculous premise, that would be the 2nd such occurrence since 2000.  If you are not willing to concede that is the definition on an anomaly than I don’t know what to say other than I would love to see you support that statement in the board room.

The Diamondbacks had the 6th lowest payroll in baseball in 2015. They have ranked in the bottom half 80% of the last 10 years, and the last time they were in the top 10 was in 2002.

[USAFChief]

 

Just to be clear … Are you suggesting that the Twins and Diamondbacks are in the same financial position when the Dbacks just signed a TV contact that gives them absolute assurance of an addition billion dollars over the next 20 years?  Even if we accepted this as an example which is ridiculous premise, that would be the 2nd such occurrence since 2000.  If you are not willing to concede that is the definition on an anomaly than I don’t know what to say other than I would love to see you support that statement in the board room.

Per Forbes estimates, the Twins had revenues of $223M in 2015.

 

The Arizona D'backs $211M.

 

Which board room, and what time?

[DaveW]

 

Per Forbes estimates, the Twins had revenues of $223M in 2015.

 

The Arizona D'backs $211M.

 

Which board room, and what time?

Thanks for digging that up.

The crazy thing is not only did the Diamondbacks shell out cash for a player like Grienke, they SET a major league record while doing it. Time will tell if it will work or not, but I would be pumped if I were a Diamondbacks fan right now.

[old nurse]

 

Per Forbes estimates, the Twins had revenues of $223M in 2015.

 

The Arizona D'backs $211M.

 

Which board room, and what time?

With their new TV deal, you can increase the Arizona operating income by 62 million a year. What is going to increase the Twin's revenue like that? I am not sure how long the Twin's contract is for, but it is reasonable to think for a few more years.

[old nurse]

 

While I think it was too much to give up, it's not the Arizona's GM's job to worry about other teams GM's and how "ticked off" they will be towards him for the trade.

 

I do give them credit for going "all in" now

 

With a front of the rotation featuring Greinke, Miller and Corbin they can match up with anyone in the playoffs. (Robbie Ray is no slouch as well)

 

Goldschmidt might be one of the best two or three all around hitters in baseball, Pollock is a rising star and Peralta and Castillo have great bats as well.

 

That looks like a legit contender in my eyes, and if they can win a title (or even make a world series) in the next 4-5 years then nobody cares what they gave up IMO.

How  well did going "all in" work for Oakland both short term and long term?

[DaveW]

 

How  well did going "all in" work for Oakland both short term and long term?

It didn't work, sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't if there was a surefire way to "win it all" then every team would do it.

 

Also Oakland going all in was different, they made a bunch of trades etc for guys who weren't around long term, the Diamondbacks have brought in Greinke and Miller for the front of the rotation and they will be around for several years it appears.

[Linus]

I haven't researched this....but it seems to me that the going all in for a given year hasn't worked in comparison to the model of building for the long run. I'm sure somebody can confirm / deny this with facta.

[h2oface]

 

Prior to this year, since 2000, eleven free agents starting pitchers have signed contracts of six or more years with seven different teams participating in contracts of this length.  Of course, that means 23 different teams have not signed a 6+ year contract since 2000.  

 

If we reduce the requirement to 5 years, an addition 9 players have signed such contract.  However, it should be noted that two of the contracts were $20M or less and two more resigned with their original team.  Therefore, it would be more accurate to say that 5 additional contracts involving three additional teams have been involved if we reduce the length of contract to five years.  This brings the total of teams participating in 5+ year contracts to 10 and the number of teams that have not participated since 2000 to 20.

 

Of course this information does not mean much in terms the relative revenue ranking of the club at the time they signed the player.  I used Forbes back to 2007 but could not find rankings older than 2007 so from 2000-2006 I used the information in the link below that shows average revenue rank 2000-2009.  

• 11 players have signed 6+ year free agent contracts since 2000 (16 years)

• 7 different teams were involved in the six+ year contracts
o Yankees   3) Sabathia, Tanaka & Mussina
o Dodgers   2) Greinke & Ryu
o Cubs         1) Lester
o Nationals 1) Scherzer
o Giants      (1-Zito
o Rockies    (1)-Hampton
o Braves     (1)-Smoltz
o Rangers   (1)-Darvish

• 9 players have signed 5 year contracts  (2 for less than $20M & 2 resigned)

• 6 Team signed 5 year deals / 4 that did not sign 6 year deals
o Angels   2) Lackey & Wilson
o Tigers    1) Sanchez
o Phillies   1) Lee
o Yankees 1) Burnett
o Rangers 1) Park
o Royals    1) Meche

 

 Exactly one 6+ year contract (Hampton) and one 5 year contract (Meche) have been signed by teams outside the top 10 in revenue since 2000.  Complaining about this is like complaining that someone with an average income it driving a 7 series BMW

 

Isn't Kershaw missing from this list?

[old nurse]

 

Isn't Kershaw missing from this list?

Kershaw was an extention, not a free agent.

[kab21]

 

I haven't read past the 1st page of this thread so don't scold me if I am repeating some takes:

 

But to me the worst thing that happened to the Twins in 2015 was they were competitive and in the playoff hunt until the last week of the season.  Now instead of continuing to build this team it feels like TR is trying to piecemeal parts together to get them over a hump that is likely much larger than it appears.

 

They currently have 4 DH's. FOUR!  I still don't consider Sano and outfielder and I don't think they are moving Plouffe.

 

The starting pitching is middle of the road with many pitchers essentially being clones of each other that could/should be moved for areas of need such as the Bullpen.

 

I think Tommy Milone could easily be moved to a team (especially an NL team) for a young powerful bullpen arm.  It might even be someone still in the minors.  But I think it could be done.

 

TR is selling the fans on the fact that he went and got catcher help.  Well upgrading over Hermann or Fryer isn't doing much for me, but trading Hicks for him makes me scratch my head.

 

I never have thought TR was great at putting together final pieces needed to make the jump like in mid 2000's and now he is trying to do it again even though he should be looking at building still.

So you think that the Twins are still rebuilding and aren't ready to go for it but you are dissatisfied that they aren't making bigger moves that involve older FA's or trading prospects for veterans?

[TheLeviathan]

 

While I think it was too much to give up, it's not the Arizona's GM's job to worry about other teams GM's and how "ticked off" they will be towards him for the trade.

 

I do give them credit for going "all in" now

 

With a front of the rotation featuring Greinke, Miller and Corbin they can match up with anyone in the playoffs. (Robbie Ray is no slouch as well)

 

Goldschmidt might be one of the best two or three all around hitters in baseball, Pollock is a rising star and Peralta and Castillo have great bats as well.

 

That looks like a legit contender in my eyes, and if they can win a title (or even make a world series) in the next 4-5 years then nobody cares what they gave up IMO.

 

Just because they were aggressive guarantees nothing.  Before annointing anything they've done a good move, perhaps we should let it play out.  The offseason is often filled with aggressive stupidity.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Per Forbes estimates, the Twins had revenues of $223M in 2015.

 

The Arizona D'backs $211M.

 

Which board room, and what time?

 

Cmon, the TV deal is a huge factor.  They just got guaranteed, way into the future, billions of dollars.  The Twins aren't in that position.

 

It's their own fault for their stupid TV deal and they still can spend more than they are, but don't discount the TV deals.  That is a massive, guaranteed revenue stream the Twins don't have.