Winter Meetings: Wednesday Thread

[Seth Stohs]

Well, Tuesday was pretty quiet on the Twins front. In fact, it was really quiet all day long in Nashville. Until about dinner time. At that point, there was a flurry of activity.

 

The Cubs traded infielder Starlin Castro to the Yankees.

 

Once that was complete, the Cubs announced they had signed Ben Zobrist to a 4 year, $56 million deal.

 

Soon after that, the Braves shipped Shelby Miller to the Diamondbacks for three very good prospects including last year's top pick Dansby Swanson. 

 

So, what is in store for the Twins on Wednesday?

 

Terry Ryan said several things to local media last night. Nothing too earth shattering. For instance, he basically said that they are moving on from Brian Duensing and Blaine Boyer. They aren't interested in Johan Santana or Joe Nathan, or other reclamation projects. He told them nothing was immenent. 

 

But the thing I thought was encouraging was that he told the media that they are focused. Here's a tweet from Rhett Bollinger:

 

 

Terry Ryan: "We’re more zeroed in. This is a unique Winter Meetings for us because we’re not branched out too deep. We know what we want."

 

They're definitely focused on left-handed relievers. Tony Sipp? Antonio Bastardo? Matt Thornton? Neal Cotts? I mean, there are several options out there yet. Will the Twins (or anyone) land one of them on Wednesday, or even this week? We'll see.

 

The other thing to watch is the Twins 40 man roster. Terry Ryan indicated that it is unlikely the team will make a Rule 5 selection this year. However, if he wanted to, someone would have to come off of the current 40 man roster today.  Not likely, but something to consider.

 

Other than that, there are still some big free agents out there, and who knows who will get traded today!

 

Enjoy!

[Seth Stohs]

A couple of righty relievers appear to be off the board already this morning.

 

David Hernandez signed with the Phillies.

 

John Axford appears close to a deal with the A's.

[Mill1634]

What would you say the % chance is that we sign/trade someone today?

[Vanimal46]

So it appears that the Castro trade yesterday was a pure salary dump so the Cubs could sign Zobrist. Why weren't more teams involved to take on Castro's salary? He still has potential as a 25 year old... 

[kab21]

 

So it appears that the Castro trade yesterday was a pure salary dump so the Cubs could sign Zobrist. Why weren't more teams involved to take on Castro's salary? He still has potential as a 25 year old... 

I think this board would lose it's mind if Plouffe was traded for Adam Warren.  He is a pretty good RP'er and I don't think Castro's upside is much better than what Plouffe is doing.

 

[DaveW]

 

I think this board would lose it's mind if Plouffe was traded for Adam Warren.  He is a pretty good RP'er and I don't think Castro's upside is much better than what Plouffe is doing.

Meh, Warren is nothing special.

Castro >>> Plouffe.

 

For one thing, Castro is 5 years younger then Plouffe and still has time to grow (power numbers should go up etc)

 

Castro plays SS/2B which is more valuable then an average 3B

 

Castro has topped .770 OPS twice and .750 OPS 4 times, Plouffe has never hit .770 and has only topped .750 twice.

 

Castro's upside is a guy who plays SS can get his power up to 20 HR range and give you a .770-.790 OPS.

 

Great deal for the Yankees, the contract owed isn't that bad at all anyways.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ish. I'd be pretty upset if I was a Cubs fan. I don't care for either the return on Castro or Zobrist at $56m over four years. Zobrist has been a great player but the Cubs are getting him for his age 35-38 seasons. Not a lot to like at that age and price point.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Meh, Warren is nothing special.

Castro >>> Plouffe.

 

For one thing, Castro is 5 years younger then Plouffe and still has time to grow (power numbers should go up etc)

 

Castro plays SS/2B which is more valuable then an average 3B

 

Castro has topped .770 OPS twice and .750 OPS 4 times, Plouffe has never hit .770 and has only topped .750 twice.

 

Castro's upside is a guy who plays SS can get his power up to 20 HR range and give you a .770-.790 OPS.

 

Great deal for the Yankees, the contract owed isn't that bad at all anyways.

Yes. All of this.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Ish. I'd be pretty upset if I was a Cubs fan. I don't care for either the return on Castro or Zobrist at $56m over four years. Zobrist has been a great player but the Cubs are getting him for his age 35-38 seasons. Not a lot to like at that age and price point.

 

You think the Cubs are about the last 2 years of that deal? I don't.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You think the Cubs are about the last 2 years of that deal? I don't.

Probably not. They have the funds to eat that back end of that contract but when coupled with the Castro trade, I'm not a fan of what they did yesterday.

[sane09]

Summary of Twins rumors and transactions with one day left at the Winter Meetings.

 

 

 

 

Wait for it.................

[Seth Stohs]

The Twins, Cleveland and Texas are reportedly in on Rajai Davis.

 

He's got talent still... can be a stop gap in CF and a 4th OF. Speed. They wanted him two years ago but he went to Detroit.

[amjgt]

Twins rumors on MLBTraderumors.com have fallen into 3 categories

 

1) Middle of the road relievers they might be interested in (According to Darren Wolfson)

2) Guys the Twins definitely aren't interested in 

3) Can we dump Nolasco

[Seth Stohs]

 

So it appears that the Castro trade yesterday was a pure salary dump so the Cubs could sign Zobrist. Why weren't more teams involved to take on Castro's salary? He still has potential as a 25 year old... 

 

I'm pretty sure people in Chicago are fed up with Castro. They have Addison Russell at shortstop and now they can put Javy Baez at 2B. Zobrist can play Left Field (or anywhere), so that Schwarber doesn't need to play out there. 

 

Zobrist is really good. He can hit. He's an athlete. Who knows if he'll last all four years, but he should be good for 2-3 more at least. This isn't like the Victor Martinez deal. 

 

And, Adam Warren is good and could be very good out of the bullpen. He could start, but the Cubs don't need starters. 

 

I like this series of deals for the Cubs.

[ashbury]

You think the Cubs are [worried] about the last 2 years of that deal? I don't.

So they're in effect willing to pay $28M a year for a couple of those good good Ben Zobrist seasons?

[T.C.]

 

The Twins, Cleveland and Texas are reportedly in on Rajai Davis.

 

He's got talent still... can be a stop gap in CF and a 4th OF. Speed. They wanted him two years ago but he went to Detroit.

If the Twins leave the meetings with Sipp and Davis I'd be a very happy camper.

[big dog]

With all the upgrades to Wrigley, the Cubs are printing money right now.  I think the Zobrist deal is way too rich, but I also don't think it matters to them.  They needed to move Castro because people here feel he's immature and inconsistent, though he handled being moved to second base pretty well.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Zobrist is really good. He can hit. He's an athlete. Who knows if he'll last all four years, but he should be good for 2-3 more at least. This isn't like the Victor Martinez deal.

I'm not so sure it's unlike the Martinez deal. Obviously, Zobrist is the better athlete (by a country mile) but hitting - particularly power hitting - is usually the last skill to leave a player. Martinez is a good example of just how quickly a player can collapse as he ages into his mid 30s.

 

Ben Zobrist WAR over the past several years:

 

2011: 6.3

2012: 5.8

2013: 5.0

2014: 5.5

2015: 2.1

 

He was down on PAs a bit last season but what really killed him is that his defense went from a big positive to a big negative.

 

Now, obviously, these are the Cubs. I'm sure they metric-ed the **** out of his 2015 season but there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about Zobrist from 2016-2019.

[Winston Smith]

 

Summary of Twins rumors and transactions with one day left at the Winter Meetings.




Wait for it.................

Do I have time for a nap?

[Gernzy]

I think the Twins make a move today. Maybe trading Nolasco to SD for a new ball boy and one of those big jugs of Bubble Gum.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's too bad the Diamondbacks don't need a third basemen. Given what just happened with the Braves, Ryan could get half their farm system for Plouffe.

[amjgt]

 

I think the Twins make a move today. Maybe trading Nolasco to SD for a new ball boy and one of those big jugs of Bubble Gum.

 

I heard the SD Assistant Ballboy has Minnesota on his list of five no-trade-clause teams

[Seth Stohs]

Adam Lind heading from Milwaukee to Seattle.

[J_Dobs]

I am starting to question if they will only add a reliever via trade. If so has anyone done some research on possible Lefty trade targets, and what there possible cost would be?

[nicksaviking]

If the Twins use Davis as a platoon player, he'd be useful.  I still prefer Chris Young (and Ryan Raburn if Buxton starts the year in CF and the Twins instead have Rosario as the back up CF) but Davis can hit lefties.

 

None of these guys should be used against righties though, so I really hope this interest means the Twins plan on embracing who ever their free agent right handed OF is as a bench/platoon guy. It would be smart baseball as Rosario, Arcia and Kepler could all use a right handed complement.

[Cory Engelhardt]

What would a trade to Milwaukee for Will Smith look like? Wouldn't he be a dream bullpen upgrade? I know it would take quite a haul in the current market, but man that would be a bold move. Younger and better than the other free agent options for sure.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Meh, Warren is nothing special.

Castro >>> Plouffe.

 

For one thing, Castro is 5 years younger then Plouffe and still has time to grow (power numbers should go up etc)

 

Castro plays SS/2B which is more valuable then an average 3B

 

Castro has topped .770 OPS twice and .750 OPS 4 times, Plouffe has never hit .770 and has only topped .750 twice.

 

Castro's upside is a guy who plays SS can get his power up to 20 HR range and give you a .770-.790 OPS.

 

Great deal for the Yankees, the contract owed isn't that bad at all anyways.

Castro has been terrible 2 of the last 3 years, and has been worth about 2 WAR during that three-year period. I don't think it is plausible to say that he is better than someone who has been worth 8 WAR during that same period. You have to weigh the last 2-3 years more heavily than the overall career, even if Castro is younger. Even if I agree that Castro probably has more upside, his expected value is substantially lower.

[J_Dobs]

 

What would a trade to Milwaukee for Will Smith look like? Wouldn't he be a dream bullpen upgrade? I know it would take quite a haul in the current market, but man that would be a bold move. Younger and better than the other free agent options for sure.

I agree I would love this deal if it were possible, I always have a hard time judging what a reliever would take in a trade. If it were possible to get him for a top 10 - top 15 prospect plus a lottery ticket I would pull the trigger on this.

[sane09]

Do I have time for a nap?

A nap, a crap, a lap, a rap in the yap and time to take a zap around the map.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Castro has been terrible 2 of the last 3 years, and has been worth about 2 WAR during that three-year period. I don't think it is plausible to say that he is better than someone who has been worth 8 WAR during that same period. You have to weigh the last 2-3 years more heavily than the overall career, even if Castro is younger. Even if I agree that Castro probably has more upside, his expected value is substantially lower.

Castro wasn't terrible last year. He posted a .8 WAR and an OPS+ of 83.

 

Yeah, that's below average, maybe even bad... But it's not terrible for a middle infielder.

 

He's entering his age 26 season and has a decent track record. I think he's a good candidate to take the Carlos Gomez path to success (though it's unlikely he'll be an MVP candidate at any point).

 

On the other hand, Warren is a pretty good pitcher but he's far from spectacular and much of his 2015 WAR came from starting. Do we really expect him to start in Chicago?